image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Unions gearing up while Rauner lays the groundwork

Monday, Dec 23, 2013

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

It’s no secret that Republican primary voters in Illinois have been almost rigidly hierarchical when it comes to choosing gubernatorial candidates. They pretty much always choose the candidate who can best demonstrate that it’s his or her “turn.”

In 1990, after eight years as secretary of state, Jim Edgar was the clear choice. Indeed, he barely had opposition. The same went for two-term Secretary of State George Ryan eight years later. In 2002, it was clearly Attorney General Jim Ryan’s turn and he bested two other high-profile candidates in the primary. In 2006, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka beat three lesser-known opponents to win her primary race, although it wasn’t as easy.

Things weren’t as clear in 2010. Wealthy Republican contributor and former state party chairman Andy McKenna spent a fortune early on and led in most polling until near the end, when primary voters began to sour on him. They quickly turned to Sen. Kirk Dillard, a former Jim Edgar chief of staff, but then almost as quickly turned against him when McKenna unleashed ads blasting Dillard for appearing in a TV ad for Barack Obama. Sen. Bill Brady, a strong conservative who ran an underfunded but somewhat credible campaign four years earlier, ended up beating Dillard by less than 200 votes.

And that brings us to 2014, where three of the four candidates are relying mainly on the “my turn” logic to prevail. Sen. Brady’s main pitch to voters, other than his recycled 2010 rhetoric, is that he learned valuable lessons in his 2010 loss to Pat Quinn and is now the most viable choice. Sen. Dillard’s pitch is that he was a proven manager under Jim Edgar and would’ve won in 2010 had he not lost to Brady in the primary and so he’s the best choice. Treasurer Dan Rutherford’s almost singular raisson d’être is that he is the only candidate in the race who has ever won statewide.

McKenna was the second rich guy in a row to attempt to break the “my turn” cycle. Wealthy GOP contributor Ron Gidwitz ran four years earlier and lost badly. You can draw a direct line from Gidwitz to self described “outsider” Bruce Rauner, who is running a well thought-out, well-funded and highly sophisticated primary race in an attempt to reset the “my turn” system, which essentially flowed from the mighty statewide organization built by political newcomer Gov. Jim Thompson, who is now backing Dillard.

If the primary was left to its own devices, Rauner might very well walk away with this thing. None of the other candidates have any real money and none are making much of a persuasive case for their respective campaigns.

But organized labor is moving ever closer to jumping into this primary battle, sources say. The idea, as I’ve told you before, is to spend a relative few million bucks attacking Rauner in the primary rather than being forced to spend tens of millions to fend him off in the fall. His close ties to Mayor Rahm Emanuel, for instance, have been shown by polling to be a killer political issue with GOP primary voters.

Rauner’s anti-union rhetoric and his (by many) unexpectedly strong Republican primary campaign have convinced unions that they need to step up soon. Plus, some public employee unions are so hostile to Gov. Pat Quinn because of pension reform that they don’t want to give the incumbent any money or help in the fall. So, this is all about knocking off “Public Enemy Number One” as early as possible.

Rauner has spent $300,000 a week on TV ads since the beginning of November, mainly to begin the process of inoculating himself against the expected labor union advertising blitz. He’s pushed his poll numbers up and has continued to freeze out his GOP rivals.

It’s abundantly clear that none of the other Republican candidates has the money to attack Rauner. Two of the three barely have enough cash to sustain their own day-to-day operations. And Rutherford only has enough for about a month of TV ads, if that. The only way that any sort of negative message about Rauner can be effectively advertised is if somebody else takes him on.

While Rauner leads in two recent polls, he’s still an almost completely unknown quantity to voters. His numbers are, in other words, wide but not deep. Shocking voters with some revelations about his background could very well knock him out. But his campaign has seen this union attack coming for a long time and they undoubtedly have at least some counter-measures planned. He won’t go away quietly.

Subscribers know more about this pending attack. Lots more.

* And this Cook County GOP development has a lot to do with the beginning of my column. As noted above, Illinois Republicans don’t like nobody what nobody sent. It’s why Rauner has concentrated so hard on winning local party endorsements. He’s trying very hard to look like the historically acceptable “it’s my turn” candidate. But pretty much everyone has missed that angle

The Cook County Republican Party, beset by a lack of money, internal feuding and a long losing streak, has endorsed wealthy Winnetka businessman Bruce Rauner for governor in the March primary election.

But the impact of the county GOP backing, announced Saturday, is questionable. The group reported less than $8,500 in its campaign fund as of Oct. 1, and carried a $400 debt to Aaron Del Mar, the county’s GOP chairman.

Moreover, while Cook County traditionally represents about 21 percent of the Republican primary vote in Illinois, the party lacks any significant organization to be able to deliver ballots. Some Republicans indicated privately that among the group’s 50 ward and 30 suburban townships, local groups still could back their own preferred contenders.

* It’s not about that handful of votes. It’s about how Rauner is quickly building an image of party elder acceptability. He’s been endorsed by several county and township parties this year. And that’s why candidates like Sen. Kirk Dillard are trying to discredit the endorsements. From a Dillard press release…

State Senator Kirk Dillard released the following statement today regarding the Cook County Republican Party endorsement:

“Today’s endorsement is yet another sad example of Bruce Rauner buying the election. Ask yourself: why would Cook County GOP bosses support Rauner, knowing that he voted democrat, gave millions of dollars to state and national democrats, is a Rahm Emanuel insider, AND hired a convicted Blagojevich insider to win state contracts? There’s only one explanation — the Bruce Rauner money machine was at work again. Only in Illinois would the legitimate concerns of rank-and-file, grassroots republicans be dismissed so brazenly. Welcome back, pay-to-play!

Our campaign is confident that we have the support of grassroots republicans, as we did in the last election when Cook County had an open convention which I won in a straw poll.”

* Also, check this out

Maine Township committeeman Rosemary Mulligan, a former state representative, said she was personally lobbied by both Rauner and Dillard, who’s from neighboring DuPage County. She said she ultimately chose Rauner because of his close relationship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel; the two men are friends and worked together on Chicago school reform issues.

That’ll make some heads explode.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


17 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:10 am:

    Rosemary Mulligan; “You broke my heart”

    How about Shawn Murphy, Maureen Murphy’s son, siding with Rauner. Yikes!

    Being a Reagan Rule Republican doesn’t mean citing Rahm Emanuel as a “Plus” for the GOP endorsement.

    “We let a ’stranger’ in our house”.

    You either let the stranger take over and destroy your house like a parasite, or you take the stranger out.

    We now know how pathetic of an apparatus the Cook County GOP is… Given the parasite now owns our house.

    The plus is that in reality, the Cook GOP brings nothing to a campaign, and the Unions rather listen to Remo, than have a stranger take over their house, whole watching out the window, Payton Prep Clouter, Rahm’s vacation buddy, live in another house. When you have 9 houses, what is one more to buy? Right Shawn Murphy? Rosemary Mulligan?


  2. - wordslinger - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:22 am:

    –But the impact of the county GOP backing, announced Saturday, is questionable. The group reported less than $8,500 in its campaign fund as of Oct. 1, and carried a $400 debt to Aaron Del Mar, the county’s GOP chairman.–

    Geez, with that kind of dough, even Dillard or Brady could have “bought” the endorsement if Rauner hadn’t gotten the drop on them.

    Heck, if I checked the couch cushions, I might be able to buy it.

    The atrophy of the Cook County GOP over the years never fails to astound. How is it possible? It’s the third largest enclave of millionaires and big business types in the country.

    And it’s the biggest source, by far, of GOP votes in the state. Who knows how many tens of thousands of GOP votes are left on the table every election due to utter laziness?


  3. - Roadiepig - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:30 am:

    I think what Maine Township committeeman Rosemary Mulligan said makes total sense when you live outside of the Chicago metro area- there seems to be just one party in that area and it’s the people with money who set the agenda for both R’s and D’s. That a republican township committee person from the metro area would be enamored with a republican candidate for governor because that candidate has worked closely with the democratic mayor of Chicago is logical when you consider that most upstate democrats here are acting more like the other Midwestern republicans in charge of their respective states. It makes party lines blurry for all of them. Like you stated though- what the Cook county Republican Party was paid for by farmer Bruce won’t really translate into many more feet heading Into the voting booth, and in my opinion might instead even turn some more downstate republican primary voters towards one of the other candidates this March .


  4. - walkinfool - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:35 am:

    Mulligan likes making heads explode.

    She also likes those who support womens’ rights, equal rights for gays, education, and human services for the needy. That’s why the party boneheads dropped their support, despite her hard work for Republicans for many years.

    What goes around, comes around.


  5. - Samurai - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:37 am:

    ==Rosemary Mulligan, a former state representative, said … she ultimately chose Rauner because of his close relationship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel; the two men are friends==

    Future primary Ad against Rauhmer. Assuming money for ads can be shaken loose…

    #shammerandsnake


  6. - PhoenixRising - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:38 am:

    CCRP will not have a shortage of funds from here on out


  7. - A guy... - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:06 am:

    It’s battle fatigue. They want to win. To them, this guy is their best hope. They’ve seen the others before and they not only lack money, they lack energy. In a political process, lacking energy is fatal. Every time.


  8. - Easy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:15 am:

    hahah Rosie. Even when she tries to help you, she hurts you.


  9. - child games - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:16 am:

    How about Cross not getting the endorsement or even a recommendation


  10. - overcooked - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    The Cook County GOP has been flashing a for sale sign since Rauner announced. An endorsement in name only because it buys no loyalty, precinct workers or influence. Why bother finding somebody to run against Joe Berrios when you can sell out to the highest bidder?


  11. - Conservative Veteran - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 11:00 am:

    Since Mulligan said that Rauner is a friend of Emanuel’s, that should cause almost all republican primary voters to vote for any governor candidate except Rauner.


  12. - Ghost - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 11:23 am:

    Rauner seems a bit Niave to me with some of his positions; primarily from lack of expericne with government.

    There is a part of me thougt that thinks he shows straights which may allow him to overcome some of his more niave positions, and may not do such a bad job after all.

    its one thing to talk about driving an 18 speed big rig based on reading about it in books, its another thing to actually do it. Overall he strikes me as a pragmatist, and with a strong dem presence in the GA, perhaps a pragmatist in the GO will not be a bad thing.


  13. - Rod - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    It is all good for lucky Pat Quinn. Rauner will implode under Pat’s class war attack. In the past I have linked video of Rauner on Chicago Tonight breaking down and refusing to respond when faced with a social class attack on Rauner’s own creditability.

    For example Quinn will unleash the attack on Rauner based on his “right to work” positions. Pat will do this from a perspective of basic democratic values and not necessarily from a pro-union perspective.

    In the past on TV, Rauner has not been able to articulate a coherent defense to such an assault. The Speaker also will take particular glee in turning out the vote against Rauner who has directly gone after him. It will be payback time.

    Republicans, get ready for the beating cause it is coming.


  14. - Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 12:34 pm:

    === get ready for the beating cause it is coming===

    Y’all really are over-confident. What if Rauner jumps out of the gate with $1 million a week or more in TV ads? He can define himself and Quinn before Quinn can lay a glove on him.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 1:21 pm:

    ===Y’all really are over-confident. What if Rauner jumps out of the gate with $1 million a week or more in TV ads? He can define himself and Quinn before Quinn can lay a glove on him.===

    I take him very seriously. Since before State Fair, and since. If you don’t, you will be like the “3″ still wondering what happened to all those days they had to define and marginalize, now it’s only the Unions.

    Don’t get caught up in Rauner’s wake, as his ship motors past your leisurely cruise to a loss.


  16. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 1:36 pm:

    I think the other 3 are done. All signs are showing this. Rauner is attacking PQ. MJM blasted Rauner after the pension “win”… If there is no substantial PQ offensive or union offensive by mid January, I think it’s closer in the general and closer to a coin toss. I think the class warfare shtick has grown tiresome. $18 dollar watch ad’s compared to 401k for all new employees may not pass….But in general circles, red meat. The seldom watched debate will be irrelevant by then….


  17. - Ghost - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 3:46 pm:

    WM maybe, but Ruaner doesnt seem to get a lot of bumps for the cash he is laying out.

    To partially quote Flounder: oh boy, is this great!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Is Durbin about to lose his leadership gig?
* Poll shows ten-point lead for Hopkins
* Shenanigans?
* Chicago area powering job growth
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Governor sets special election dates, but they are expected to change
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Motorola’s got a real one-day Moto X deal (as well as a fake April Fools’ product)
        * LG G Flex2 undergoes extreme endurance test and (mostly) survives
        * HTC takes the wraps off its brand new Re Sok
        * Google launches Cloud Console app (beta) for developers on the go
        * Samsung’s free Galaxy S6 offer sounds like an April Fools’ prank (but it’s not)
        * Samsung hits the streets to find out what people think of the Galaxy S6 and Galaxy S6 Edge because why not
        * Wireless Bluetooth Cloud Buds delivers music any time, anywhere [DEALS]

        * General Motors to Earn $350 Million Over Three Years From 4G Technology in Cars
        * April Fools! The Amazon Dash Button is Actually Real
        * If You Can't Pay Your Taxes, You Might Qualify for a Reduced Amount
        * Give Any Outlet USB Power With the SnapPower
        * How to Choose the Best Firmware to Supercharge Your Wi-Fi Router
        * Some States Will Revoke Your License if You Don’t Pay Student Debt
        * Deadspin Yes, Flying Parents To The Final Four Is Paying Players | Gizmodo Interstellar honest trail

        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * 2015 league leaders: Adam Eaton, runs
        * Abreu raises spring average to .519 with four hits in win
        * Rodon: Spring big for comfort level facing big leaguers
        * Shuck, Soto, Albers secure roster spots with White Sox
        * Abreu raises spring average to .519 with four hits in win

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * The Illinois Supreme Court’s Dissent Rate (Part.....
        * Senators, advocates decry budget cuts..
        * Equality Illinois Institute ponders next LGBTQ .....
        * "Body By Jake" Founder Bringing Fitness Campaig.....
        * Executive Action Leaves Many Undocumented Immig.....
        * Forbes Media Announces Key Speakers To First-Ev.....
        * Emanuel, Garcia square off in final debate..
        * U of Illinois Pushes to Finish Budget-Cuts Plan..
        * 'Body by Jake' founder bringing fitness campaig.....


        * Illinois sees lack of bids in online auction of state planes
        * Inmate overpowers guard, escapes from eastern Illinois jail
        * US gives threatened status to northern long-eared bat
        * Illinois has approved 2,000 medical marijuana patients
        * State help possible for US Steel workers in Granite City
        * Inmate overpowers guard, escapes from eastern Illinois jail
        * Trinity Test site opening to face protest from residents
        * 4 Joliet teens face child porn charges after posting video
        * Naked woman found dead in brush near Brooklyn strip clubs
        * Emanuel and Garcia engage in final debate before vote

        * Rauner schedules special election to replace Schock
        * Duckworth says Clinton must testify on Benghazi, criticizes Kirk for Iran letter
        * Q&A: What happens now that Aaron Schock is out of office?
        * State's school districts adapt to new cyberbullying law
        * Duckworth: Clinton must testify before Benghazi committee
        * Ex-deputy treasurer to fun for Duckworth's seat
        * Ex-deputy treasurer to run for Duckworth's seat
        * LIHEAP utility assistance fund for Sangamon County is empty
        * LaHood talks transportation issues as he kicks off congressional campaign
        * Duckworth to challenge Kirk for U.S. Senate seat

        * A gassy sea otter? That's a job for Walgreens
        * Coors Light ad campaign scrapped
        * Sears expects $2.5 billion from real estate moves
        * Is ComEd doing Exelon's bidding by trying to rewrite energy efficiency law?
        * Arkansas OKs religious-freedom law as Indiana backtracks


          * Convicted murderer escapes from Kankakee County jail
          * Netherlands king, queen plan visit to Chicago
          * Indiana woman sentenced to 20 years in prison for feticide
          * Chicago-area dog owners warned about spread of kennel cough
          * Man tries to lure 2 boys near school on West Side
          * Man, girl injured in pit bull attack in Lawndale
          * Police: 16-year-old dead after Englewood shooting, 6 others wounded across city
          * Car crashes through Libertyville home, injuring 2
          * Emanuel, Garcia spar over city finances in final debate
          * Suspect sought in sexual abuse of boy, 14, in Near North neighborhood


          * Rauner signs into law compromise plan to fix budget hole
          * Indiana law: Sorting fact from fiction from politics
          * More people moved away from Illinois last year than any other state
          * Indiana pastor doesn’t want changes to 'religious freedom' law
          * Flamin' Hot Cheetos top some Chicago Public School vending machines
          * What to watch for in the final mayoral debate
          * Indiana Gov. Pence signs religious objections bill
          * How organizations brace for Illinois budget cuts
          * Unions and Garcia push for $15-an-hour minimum wage
          * The Chicago rabbit: The unofficial face of wildlife is right under your nose


          * Our Opinion: Proctor, Higgins for Springfield's wards 5 and 7
          * Michael Gerson: The virtues of the smoke-filled room
          * Rauner schedules special election to replace Schock
          * Duckworth says Clinton must testify on Benghazi, criticizes Kirk for Iran letter
          * Q&A: What happens now that Aaron Schock is out of office?
          * State's school districts adapt to new cyberbullying law
          * Ex-deputy treasurer to fun for Duckworth's seat
          * Our Opinion: Redpath, Senor, McFarland for Springfield's wards 1, 2 and 4
          * Kathleen Parker: A leap of faith — into thin air
          * LIHEAP utility assistance fund for Sangamon County is empty


          * On The Town: 2014 Farm Leader
          * Fights, gunshot at end of Canopy Club show
          * Falling corn prices stalk Monsanto, sending second-quarter profits lower
          * State help possible for U.S. Steel workers in Granite City
          * Who's that Illini? J_s_n An_ers_n
          * A day after missing deal deadline, Iran nuclear talks resume
          * Obama signs order creating new cyber sanctions program
          * Indiana debate exposes Republican divisions
          * Iraq declares victory over Islamic State group in Tikrit
          * Killer overpowers guard, escapes from Kankakee jail


          * Maya Angelou play in development by Tavis Smiley, Kenny Leon
          * Police say former employee stole from nursing home residents
          * Images: Spain and Paraguay celebrate Holy Week in unique ways
          * Man charged with stabbing Naperville couple
          * Tidal streaming service seeks more artists to join as owners

          * Randy Hultgren Defeats Dennis Anderson In ...
          * Local Republicans gather to fundraise and ...
          * 14th Congressional District: Randy Hultgre...
          * Davis on Iran talks
          * Richwoods graduate will seek Tammy Duckwor...
          * Torch run to stop in Hannibal
          * Hultgren: Rooting out Medicare and Medicai...
          * Kaergard: Schock's office not the only thi...
          * House to review spending rules in wake of ...
          * Antolik receives Service Academy appointment

          * Inhofe Pro-Gun Amendment Could “Potentiall......
          * Senators to FIFA President: Strip Russia o......
          * Confirmation delay for new attorney genera......
          * Lawmakers Reintroduce Bill to Revise FEMA ......
          * Schumer-Durbin Rift Could Bring New Blood ......

          * Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: An old......
          * Senators to FIFA President: Strip Russia o......
          * VA Medical Center care atop Duckworth's pr......
          * Obstacles persist as talks on Iran’s nucle......
          * Duckworth pledges veteran support...

          * Fast Food Workers Palm Sunday 4
          * Chicago's Fight For $15 Campaign To Expand Beyond Fast Food Workers (VIDEO)
          * Poll: Hopkins Leading Chicago's 2nd Ward Aldermanic Runoff Race
          * Divvy Bike Sharing Program To Expand In Chicago
          * Illinois Judges Foundation Comedy Night set for April 29
          * The Way Forward in the U.S.-Afghanistan Security Partnership
          * Whitehead: Jesus Died in a Police State
          * When it comes to unions and Fair Share, Governor Private Equity brings out that don’t-tell-me-what-to-do spirit.
          * Hinsdale’s Queen of Hearts yells, “Off with their heads.”
          * Chicago 10th Ward debate.


          * IDHS Prescription Monitoring program helps control prescription drugs abuse in Illinois - Program has more than 26,000 registered users
          * Gov. Rauner File Writs of Special Election
          * Governor Announces Appointments to Illinois Enterprise Zone
          * Illinois Mayors to Celebrate National Service - April 7, 2015 Designated as “Mayors Day of Recognition”
          * Governor Rauner Takes Bill Action




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller