SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Unions gearing up while Rauner lays the groundwork

Monday, Dec 23, 2013

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

It’s no secret that Republican primary voters in Illinois have been almost rigidly hierarchical when it comes to choosing gubernatorial candidates. They pretty much always choose the candidate who can best demonstrate that it’s his or her “turn.”

In 1990, after eight years as secretary of state, Jim Edgar was the clear choice. Indeed, he barely had opposition. The same went for two-term Secretary of State George Ryan eight years later. In 2002, it was clearly Attorney General Jim Ryan’s turn and he bested two other high-profile candidates in the primary. In 2006, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka beat three lesser-known opponents to win her primary race, although it wasn’t as easy.

Things weren’t as clear in 2010. Wealthy Republican contributor and former state party chairman Andy McKenna spent a fortune early on and led in most polling until near the end, when primary voters began to sour on him. They quickly turned to Sen. Kirk Dillard, a former Jim Edgar chief of staff, but then almost as quickly turned against him when McKenna unleashed ads blasting Dillard for appearing in a TV ad for Barack Obama. Sen. Bill Brady, a strong conservative who ran an underfunded but somewhat credible campaign four years earlier, ended up beating Dillard by less than 200 votes.

And that brings us to 2014, where three of the four candidates are relying mainly on the “my turn” logic to prevail. Sen. Brady’s main pitch to voters, other than his recycled 2010 rhetoric, is that he learned valuable lessons in his 2010 loss to Pat Quinn and is now the most viable choice. Sen. Dillard’s pitch is that he was a proven manager under Jim Edgar and would’ve won in 2010 had he not lost to Brady in the primary and so he’s the best choice. Treasurer Dan Rutherford’s almost singular raisson d’être is that he is the only candidate in the race who has ever won statewide.

McKenna was the second rich guy in a row to attempt to break the “my turn” cycle. Wealthy GOP contributor Ron Gidwitz ran four years earlier and lost badly. You can draw a direct line from Gidwitz to self described “outsider” Bruce Rauner, who is running a well thought-out, well-funded and highly sophisticated primary race in an attempt to reset the “my turn” system, which essentially flowed from the mighty statewide organization built by political newcomer Gov. Jim Thompson, who is now backing Dillard.

If the primary was left to its own devices, Rauner might very well walk away with this thing. None of the other candidates have any real money and none are making much of a persuasive case for their respective campaigns.

But organized labor is moving ever closer to jumping into this primary battle, sources say. The idea, as I’ve told you before, is to spend a relative few million bucks attacking Rauner in the primary rather than being forced to spend tens of millions to fend him off in the fall. His close ties to Mayor Rahm Emanuel, for instance, have been shown by polling to be a killer political issue with GOP primary voters.

Rauner’s anti-union rhetoric and his (by many) unexpectedly strong Republican primary campaign have convinced unions that they need to step up soon. Plus, some public employee unions are so hostile to Gov. Pat Quinn because of pension reform that they don’t want to give the incumbent any money or help in the fall. So, this is all about knocking off “Public Enemy Number One” as early as possible.

Rauner has spent $300,000 a week on TV ads since the beginning of November, mainly to begin the process of inoculating himself against the expected labor union advertising blitz. He’s pushed his poll numbers up and has continued to freeze out his GOP rivals.

It’s abundantly clear that none of the other Republican candidates has the money to attack Rauner. Two of the three barely have enough cash to sustain their own day-to-day operations. And Rutherford only has enough for about a month of TV ads, if that. The only way that any sort of negative message about Rauner can be effectively advertised is if somebody else takes him on.

While Rauner leads in two recent polls, he’s still an almost completely unknown quantity to voters. His numbers are, in other words, wide but not deep. Shocking voters with some revelations about his background could very well knock him out. But his campaign has seen this union attack coming for a long time and they undoubtedly have at least some counter-measures planned. He won’t go away quietly.

Subscribers know more about this pending attack. Lots more.

* And this Cook County GOP development has a lot to do with the beginning of my column. As noted above, Illinois Republicans don’t like nobody what nobody sent. It’s why Rauner has concentrated so hard on winning local party endorsements. He’s trying very hard to look like the historically acceptable “it’s my turn” candidate. But pretty much everyone has missed that angle

The Cook County Republican Party, beset by a lack of money, internal feuding and a long losing streak, has endorsed wealthy Winnetka businessman Bruce Rauner for governor in the March primary election.

But the impact of the county GOP backing, announced Saturday, is questionable. The group reported less than $8,500 in its campaign fund as of Oct. 1, and carried a $400 debt to Aaron Del Mar, the county’s GOP chairman.

Moreover, while Cook County traditionally represents about 21 percent of the Republican primary vote in Illinois, the party lacks any significant organization to be able to deliver ballots. Some Republicans indicated privately that among the group’s 50 ward and 30 suburban townships, local groups still could back their own preferred contenders.

* It’s not about that handful of votes. It’s about how Rauner is quickly building an image of party elder acceptability. He’s been endorsed by several county and township parties this year. And that’s why candidates like Sen. Kirk Dillard are trying to discredit the endorsements. From a Dillard press release…

State Senator Kirk Dillard released the following statement today regarding the Cook County Republican Party endorsement:

“Today’s endorsement is yet another sad example of Bruce Rauner buying the election. Ask yourself: why would Cook County GOP bosses support Rauner, knowing that he voted democrat, gave millions of dollars to state and national democrats, is a Rahm Emanuel insider, AND hired a convicted Blagojevich insider to win state contracts? There’s only one explanation — the Bruce Rauner money machine was at work again. Only in Illinois would the legitimate concerns of rank-and-file, grassroots republicans be dismissed so brazenly. Welcome back, pay-to-play!

Our campaign is confident that we have the support of grassroots republicans, as we did in the last election when Cook County had an open convention which I won in a straw poll.”

* Also, check this out

Maine Township committeeman Rosemary Mulligan, a former state representative, said she was personally lobbied by both Rauner and Dillard, who’s from neighboring DuPage County. She said she ultimately chose Rauner because of his close relationship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel; the two men are friends and worked together on Chicago school reform issues.

That’ll make some heads explode.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


17 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:10 am:

    Rosemary Mulligan; “You broke my heart”

    How about Shawn Murphy, Maureen Murphy’s son, siding with Rauner. Yikes!

    Being a Reagan Rule Republican doesn’t mean citing Rahm Emanuel as a “Plus” for the GOP endorsement.

    “We let a ’stranger’ in our house”.

    You either let the stranger take over and destroy your house like a parasite, or you take the stranger out.

    We now know how pathetic of an apparatus the Cook County GOP is… Given the parasite now owns our house.

    The plus is that in reality, the Cook GOP brings nothing to a campaign, and the Unions rather listen to Remo, than have a stranger take over their house, whole watching out the window, Payton Prep Clouter, Rahm’s vacation buddy, live in another house. When you have 9 houses, what is one more to buy? Right Shawn Murphy? Rosemary Mulligan?


  2. - wordslinger - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:22 am:

    –But the impact of the county GOP backing, announced Saturday, is questionable. The group reported less than $8,500 in its campaign fund as of Oct. 1, and carried a $400 debt to Aaron Del Mar, the county’s GOP chairman.–

    Geez, with that kind of dough, even Dillard or Brady could have “bought” the endorsement if Rauner hadn’t gotten the drop on them.

    Heck, if I checked the couch cushions, I might be able to buy it.

    The atrophy of the Cook County GOP over the years never fails to astound. How is it possible? It’s the third largest enclave of millionaires and big business types in the country.

    And it’s the biggest source, by far, of GOP votes in the state. Who knows how many tens of thousands of GOP votes are left on the table every election due to utter laziness?


  3. - Roadiepig - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:30 am:

    I think what Maine Township committeeman Rosemary Mulligan said makes total sense when you live outside of the Chicago metro area- there seems to be just one party in that area and it’s the people with money who set the agenda for both R’s and D’s. That a republican township committee person from the metro area would be enamored with a republican candidate for governor because that candidate has worked closely with the democratic mayor of Chicago is logical when you consider that most upstate democrats here are acting more like the other Midwestern republicans in charge of their respective states. It makes party lines blurry for all of them. Like you stated though- what the Cook county Republican Party was paid for by farmer Bruce won’t really translate into many more feet heading Into the voting booth, and in my opinion might instead even turn some more downstate republican primary voters towards one of the other candidates this March .


  4. - walkinfool - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:35 am:

    Mulligan likes making heads explode.

    She also likes those who support womens’ rights, equal rights for gays, education, and human services for the needy. That’s why the party boneheads dropped their support, despite her hard work for Republicans for many years.

    What goes around, comes around.


  5. - Samurai - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:37 am:

    ==Rosemary Mulligan, a former state representative, said … she ultimately chose Rauner because of his close relationship with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel; the two men are friends==

    Future primary Ad against Rauhmer. Assuming money for ads can be shaken loose…

    #shammerandsnake


  6. - PhoenixRising - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 9:38 am:

    CCRP will not have a shortage of funds from here on out


  7. - A guy... - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:06 am:

    It’s battle fatigue. They want to win. To them, this guy is their best hope. They’ve seen the others before and they not only lack money, they lack energy. In a political process, lacking energy is fatal. Every time.


  8. - Easy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:15 am:

    hahah Rosie. Even when she tries to help you, she hurts you.


  9. - child games - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:16 am:

    How about Cross not getting the endorsement or even a recommendation


  10. - overcooked - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    The Cook County GOP has been flashing a for sale sign since Rauner announced. An endorsement in name only because it buys no loyalty, precinct workers or influence. Why bother finding somebody to run against Joe Berrios when you can sell out to the highest bidder?


  11. - Conservative Veteran - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 11:00 am:

    Since Mulligan said that Rauner is a friend of Emanuel’s, that should cause almost all republican primary voters to vote for any governor candidate except Rauner.


  12. - Ghost - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 11:23 am:

    Rauner seems a bit Niave to me with some of his positions; primarily from lack of expericne with government.

    There is a part of me thougt that thinks he shows straights which may allow him to overcome some of his more niave positions, and may not do such a bad job after all.

    its one thing to talk about driving an 18 speed big rig based on reading about it in books, its another thing to actually do it. Overall he strikes me as a pragmatist, and with a strong dem presence in the GA, perhaps a pragmatist in the GO will not be a bad thing.


  13. - Rod - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    It is all good for lucky Pat Quinn. Rauner will implode under Pat’s class war attack. In the past I have linked video of Rauner on Chicago Tonight breaking down and refusing to respond when faced with a social class attack on Rauner’s own creditability.

    For example Quinn will unleash the attack on Rauner based on his “right to work” positions. Pat will do this from a perspective of basic democratic values and not necessarily from a pro-union perspective.

    In the past on TV, Rauner has not been able to articulate a coherent defense to such an assault. The Speaker also will take particular glee in turning out the vote against Rauner who has directly gone after him. It will be payback time.

    Republicans, get ready for the beating cause it is coming.


  14. - Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 12:34 pm:

    === get ready for the beating cause it is coming===

    Y’all really are over-confident. What if Rauner jumps out of the gate with $1 million a week or more in TV ads? He can define himself and Quinn before Quinn can lay a glove on him.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 1:21 pm:

    ===Y’all really are over-confident. What if Rauner jumps out of the gate with $1 million a week or more in TV ads? He can define himself and Quinn before Quinn can lay a glove on him.===

    I take him very seriously. Since before State Fair, and since. If you don’t, you will be like the “3″ still wondering what happened to all those days they had to define and marginalize, now it’s only the Unions.

    Don’t get caught up in Rauner’s wake, as his ship motors past your leisurely cruise to a loss.


  16. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 1:36 pm:

    I think the other 3 are done. All signs are showing this. Rauner is attacking PQ. MJM blasted Rauner after the pension “win”… If there is no substantial PQ offensive or union offensive by mid January, I think it’s closer in the general and closer to a coin toss. I think the class warfare shtick has grown tiresome. $18 dollar watch ad’s compared to 401k for all new employees may not pass….But in general circles, red meat. The seldom watched debate will be irrelevant by then….


  17. - Ghost - Monday, Dec 23, 13 @ 3:46 pm:

    WM maybe, but Ruaner doesnt seem to get a lot of bumps for the cash he is laying out.

    To partially quote Flounder: oh boy, is this great!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Surprise! Moody's says Exelon bailout is "credit positive"
* Kennedy: "I'm in"
* ILGOP operative defends tracker involvement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** UPDATED x2 - Cullerton responds *** Rauner won't schedule leaders meeting until Dems "are ready"
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Pokémon Go to Get New Pokémon as Starbucks and Sprint Stores Become Pokéstops and Gyms
* Premium-looking Samsung Galaxy A3 (2017) and A7 (2017) are rendered ahead of launch
* Pokémon Go is officially teaming with Starbucks for 7,800 new Gyms and PokéStops
* [TA Deals] Use True Key to store and protect all of your passwords
* Super Mario Run first month revenue projected at over $70M
* Black Pearl Galaxy S7 Edge debuts in ‘select markets’, Blue Coral reaches India
* 'Bully: Anniversary Edition' Launches on iOS App Store for $6.99

* Moncada welcomes expectations awaiting White Sox
* In span of day, White Sox system skyrockets
* Kopech next in long line of Texas fireballers
* White Sox land Giolito, 2 more prospects for Eaton
* In rebuild mode, Hahn has 5 assets to deal
* White Sox GM Rick Hahn is the prospect collector
* Best prospects traded in past 25 years

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* RAUNER balks on talks — RAHM meets with TRUMP, .....
* Rauner was looking for any excuse to veto CPS b.....
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, dela.....
* Signing of Exelon energy bill touted..
* Bernard Schoenburg: Bustos gets leadership post.....
* Exit interview..
* Morning Spin: Rauner fights with union over $1,.....
* Illinois Issues: Great American Divide..
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, dela.....
* Morning Spin: Rauner fights with union over $10.....


* 1 held after shot fired at Chicago police; no injuries
* EXCHANGE: Retired Mendota detective now helps kids
* Energy Department grants to fund Illinois CO2 projects
* Suburban tobacco store manager sentenced in tax case
* Group offers reward to fight dog fighting in DuPage County
* Illinois firearm deer harvest down 8.5 percent this year
* Chicago officer convicted of perjury, 2 officers acquitted
* Doctor: candy that sickened students contained marijuana
* Purported Chicago gang leader to jurors: Gang never existed
* Illinois Gov. Rauner signs bill sparing 2 nuclear plants

* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse
* Rauner signs Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Rauner to sign Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Judge blocks administration from imposing contract on AFSCME
* State budget still elusive as leaders lash out
* Illinois budget still elusive as leaders lash out
* Killer of former central Illinois man sentenced to probation
* Prosecutors: Don't move Aaron Schock trial out of Springfield

* Michael Jordan wins trademark case in China
* Online consigner Swap.com nabs $20 million
* So you want to be a 40 Under 40
* Twins in Chicago's tech sector—separately
* Lothian hands CEO title to newsletter editor


* Obama guidance, press schedule Dec. 8, 2016. Congressional Ball
* Man shot in chest in Little Village
* No Red Line trains on South Side due to medical emergency
* S.E. Cupp: Donald Trump’s America, and the rise of anarchy
* An Elf, Beasts, among 50 top-selling books Dec. 1-8, 2016
* Man, 65, stabbed in West Loop
* ‘Miss Sloane’: For a big juicy treat, let’s all go the lobbyist
* Read Options: Can Leonard Floyd be defensive rookie of the year?
* Man charged with Edgewater armed robbery
* Lifetime buck, 12-point from McDonough County: Buck of the Week


* Lincoln Park mansion for sale at record $50 million asking price
* Emerson, Lake and Palmer founder Greg Lake dies at 69
* Morning Spin: Rauner fights with union over $1,000 bonuses
* The 'faithless few': All the times electoral college members voted their own way
* Skilling: Coldest in 10 months, but colder yet next week after snow
* Why is the Bears question about Vic Fangio's exit and not John Fox's?
* Dog, man die after it alerted couple to fire in Southwest Side home
* Indiana man says he was stabbed by Klan leader in N.C. over internet comments feud
* Trump's Boeing blast may mute CEOs
* Meet the new White Sox guys: Prospects acquired in the Adam Eaton trade


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Bernard Schoenburg: Bustos gets leadership post, criticizes Rauner
* Our View: Lawmakers should withdraw their lawsuit over paychecks
* George Will: The sensitivity police strike again
* Eugene Robinson: The proliferation of fake news presents real perils
* Guest Column: The Trump Administration faces extremism/terrorism
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse
* Rauner signs Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Rauner to sign Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants


* Man sentenced to three years in prison for theft in Jackson County court
* Anonymous donor to match the money received in red kettles Saturday
* Clinton to interview 5 for administrator job
* Entertainment listings, Dec. 8-14, 2016
* Moon walking: Allerton's night hikes gaining popularity
* Club listings, Dec. 8-15, 2016
* Notes-Worthy: Rod and Zac Sickler
* Pulling rank
* Left is sinking UI's reputation
* MTD trustees approve 25% tax-levy increase


* The Latest: Speaker's office says time is up on energy bill
* Thousands expected for Our Lady of Guadalupe celebration in Des Plaines
* Oklahoma's Westbrook takes small-town skills to big stage
* Adolf Burger, inmate forced by Nazis to forge money, dies
* Rollback of truck safety rules may be just the beginning

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Retiring Reid Reminisces on Merry Reagan D......
* Durbin, Gutierrez Launch New 'Chicago is W......
* Sen. Durbin Wants Tough Questions For Trum......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Praised During Senate Floor......

* 2018 Illinois governor's bid could be "Race of the Billionaires"
* Trump will nominate WWE co-founder to "go to the mat" for small businesses
* Chicago’s “entrenched interests.”
* Girl, 13, Missing From Uptown Hospital
* How times change; Rahm now our ally in upcoming political fight w/ Trump
* Santa Sleighed
* Roller Skate With Santa At Margate Park
* Illinois Bible Colleges Head to Court of Appeals
* Thorner: Grassroots pushback essential for Trump to appoint pro-life nominee
* IL GOP jabs possible Dem gubernatorial nominee, three more lawmakers


* Governor’s Export Awards Recipients Announced
* Governor Signs Legislation to Protect Jobs, Ratepayers and Taxpayers
* Give The Gift Of A Lifetime With A College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Plan - College Illinois! can help limit or even eliminate future student loan debt
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Hosts 75th Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day Ceremony
* IDHR Issues Reminder of Fair Housing Rights During Holiday Season - State law prohibits targeted, discriminatory restrictions on decorations and celebrations




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller