SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Moody’s revises worst in the nation job projections

Wednesday, Jan 29, 2014

* The projection by Moody’s Analyticals that Illinois ranked 50 out of 50 in likely 2014 job growth has brought critics out of the woodwork. The firm, however, has revised its projection and moved Illinois up ten spots, to 40th. Still lousy, but at least it ain’t the worst in the freaking country. An e-mail from Moody’s to the governor’s office..

The state moved up 10 spots like we discussed, with the 2014 projection for Illinois job growth increasing from 1% to 1.2%. When it comes to the job market, slower healing in housing and government is primary reason Illinois has lagged behind during the economic recovery. In terms of the job market, industries such as construction, finance and state/local government have significantly underperformed whereas other industries have performed in line with the nation. Construction, finance and state/local government made some progress in 2013 but it was limited and in the near-term they will continue to be a drag on the state’s relative performance.

As for the better forecast and improved ranking in January, this reflects (1) stronger than anticipated economic data toward the end of last year, including leading indicators that suggest momentum is strong entering into 2014, (2) limited fall-out from the federal government shutdown and the agreement by lawmakers to reverse some of the spending cuts under sequestration over the next two years, (3) better performance of manufacturing and the fact that strengthening private sector demand should lessen the need to trim inventories by curtailing output. Since pension reform was assumed in the forecast its passage did not directly impact the forecast, though it does reduce downside risk in the outlook.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


22 Comments
  1. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:37 pm:

    Moody’s is the outfit that blessed the toxic assets that caused the financial crisis, right?

    They did it b/c they had a conflict of interest, right?

    No one was held accountable, right?

    They are aligned with the financial sector people who are waging the war on government employees, right?

    And they just mistakenly ranked Illinois in the bottom 2%, when the correction put Illinois significantly higher.

    Forgive me for not attaching much import to rich people carrying the water for rich people when there are no consequences for being criminally incompetent or fraudulent.


  2. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:38 pm:

    In fact, Illinois should pass a law protecting investors from fraud by Moody’s and other rating agencies.


  3. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:43 pm:

    What Carl Nyberg said.


  4. - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:52 pm:

    The horse they rode in on.

    Don’t care. They’ve proven themselves to be prostitutes. They have no credibility.

    Didn’t use to be like that. remember Arthur Anderson before Enron? Same deal with moodys before the crash. A brand of integrity, compromised beyond redemption.

    I used to work with the current Moody’s Illinois guy in new York back in the day. The 80s. Long story short, weigh and sample his opinions before you buy them.


  5. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:59 pm:

    Me three!


  6. - OneMan - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:00 pm:

    Yes it is all a big rich guy conspiracy…..

    Glad you figured it out….

    Because the improvement in Illinois unemployment rate obviously indicates we are doing great at job growth…

    I would say more, but I have to cause some more repression inherent in the system…


  7. - anon - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:01 pm:

    Am I interpreting this statement correctly: Moody’s is stating that one of the biggest drag on the state’s economy is the lack of hiring (past layoffs) of state, county, and city employees?
    Hmmm, so we should cut the state budget even more?


  8. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:07 pm:

    All I know is when I see New York running tv ads offering no biz taxes for 10 years and boasting of its low inheritance taxes, you start to wonder: they ain’t no sun-belt/no-social-services/middle-of-nowhere state and they seem to have their act together.


  9. - circularfiringsquad - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:14 pm:

    It is good to see that after about 6+ years some of you are beginning to understand the “rating agencies” are frauds that should have been run out of town or locked up long ago.
    However their nonsense will mute the FarmerBrucey attacks….TFB Farmer


  10. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:15 pm:

    Things just keep lookin’ up for Quinn on what has alREADY been a VERY good day for the Governor…because Good news like this is just yet another sign of that “Comeback” Road he insisted all day in his assertions to us 13 Million folks (in his overall, best SOTS Speech yet) that our Beloved Home State HAS been ON–and now he’s got more real, tasty “proof” to toss into that ever better-tastin’ Illinois Brand “Pudding” he was stirring up for us all to see earlier today…!”


  11. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    Anon:

    You are correct.

    An important fact that Conservatives like to ignore is that the main reason that Illinois lags behind other states in job growth is because of layoffs and hiring freezes in local government and secondarily, state government.


  12. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:25 pm:

    And i say “secondarily” state government because the state workforce is puny compared to the hundreds of thousands of local government employees, particularly school districts and police and fire.

    That said, state spending on education clearly has an immediate impact on the economy if it means hiring more teachers, school social workers, etc.

    That is why the Republican candidates support The board of education’s call for a $1 billion increase in school funding. Or maybe the opposite–I dont remember.


  13. - walker - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:25 pm:

    Yes, Moody’s and most other financial analysts and independent economists, know that cutting government spending, and cutting government employment, is a drag on the economy (in the short term at least), and has been a major drag on our national recovery for the last three years.


  14. - MrJM - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:30 pm:

    I can’t believe commenters would suggest that credit ratings agencies would ever let the opportunity for big profits to make them less than completely honest in their ratings.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101188197

    It’s crazy talk!

    – MrJM


  15. - plutocrat03 - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 6:58 pm:

    “state workforce is puny”

    Did you forget to count the staff in the hundreds and hundreds of taxing bodies that exist here, but are integral to other states?


  16. - Judgment Day - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 6:58 pm:

    “I can’t believe commenters would suggest that credit ratings agencies would ever let the opportunity for big profits to make them less than completely honest in their ratings.”

    It’s not about the opportunity to make big profits going forward. It’s all about keeping what they currently have made in the recent past, and staying in business in the future.

    The big three (Moody’s, Finch, and S&P) are all terrified of the fed case against S&P. If the fed’s win, the business model that has been used by Moody’s, Finch, and S&P is put in real jeopardy, and that means all those dubious bond issues pushed out there based on really questionable rating processes are now potentially liable to a vast amount of litigation.

    That’s seriously big money, and if the fed’s get a clear cut win, potentially say ‘Goodbye’ to the big ratings agencies. It’s AIG all over again - times 3.

    Going to be really interesting to see how the dirty laundry avoids coming out from this one.

    “An important fact that Conservatives like to ignore is that the main reason that Illinois lags behind other states in job growth is because of layoffs and hiring freezes in local government and secondarily, state government.”

    The bigger reason behind the layoffs and cutbacks in local government is because the still on-going impacts to the real estate property tax base. Your property tax base (taxable value) in many areas of IL is still decreasing, but the tax rates are going up, with the end result being little, if any increase in overall property tax revenues.

    Maybe 1-2% increase in property tax revenues (mostly tax cap related), but that’s not even keeping up with cost increases. Not to mention increased pension and upcoming health care costs.

    Short story: More local government cutbacks on the horizon.


  17. - Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 7:06 pm:

    C’mon, these reports and rankings are made up more to gin up attention for Moody’s more than anything else. It’s BuzzFeed for Wall Street (with all sincere apologies to BuzzFeed.)


  18. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 8:42 pm:

    Funny how those ratings change after a few phone calls and emails.

    The more things change, the more they stay the same.


  19. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 8:46 pm:

    Try buying a single family home in Lincoln Square, Ravenswood or North Center. I am, and I don’t believe anyone who tells me the housing market is less than red hot.


  20. - ASAP - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 10:20 pm:

    50 to 40 is still bad news! I hope the Governor can get some help from the other Moodys. You know the Moody brothers.


  21. - Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 11:55 pm:

    I really expected Congressional hearings about the financial bubble that caused the real estate market to collapse. The Community Reinvestment Act was a disaster waiting to happen. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were wildly mismanaged, but House Democrats, including Franks and Waters, shouted down any efforts to stop the train wreck that was imminent. If Republican legislators had sponsored such a program, there would be people being fitted for orange jump suits, but partisan politics halted any meaningful inquiry and Rahm Emanuel has never been held accountable for his role as a well paid federal regulatory appointee charged with stopping the abuses that went unchecked. What Moody’s role was, I cannot say, but there is plenty of blame to go around. It is not discriminatory not to lend money and issue mortgages to people who have insufficient income or credit to make monthly payments. Oh, yes, they all meant well.


  22. - PoolGuy - Thursday, Jan 30, 14 @ 8:25 am:

    this is after all only a projection. I’m sure Moody’s projections have been proven incorrect or off base before. the year of 2014 has to transpire first before you can say this was right or wrong, better or worse.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Frerichs has new idea
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner sides with Uber
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner campaign claims Quinn security detail "verbally assaulted and physically removed" a tracker
* Judge rules state can close Murray Center
* Griffin talks about what he's up to here
* NFIB "will lead the fight" against Rauner service tax
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Political events calendar
* A silly Koch poke
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* Appellate court approves expedited term limits hearings
* What do they do now?
* Today's oppo dump
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Tapet generates random wallpapers for your mobile device
        * OnePlus unleashes an even bigger Blizzard of Invites
        * Google Play Store gets a partial Material makeover
        * iPhone 6 orders, iPad mini Air specs, HTC One Wear leaks & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * This is Tim: Apple's CEO on iPad sales, China, Beats, IBM, and more
        * Paranoid Android 4.5 Alpha 2 polishes new Recents style
        * Amazon Fire: The Phone That Makes You a Star

        * Local Stores See Google Maps Offer Detailed Ads
        * League Of Legends Introduces New Protection Measures
        * Yahoo Purchases Flurry, A Mobile Analytics Firm
        * LG G Pad 10.1 On Best Buy For $249.99
        * HTC Sense Input App On Google Play Store
        * Scientists Successfully ‘Delete’ HIV Virus From Human DNA
        * Docker acquires Orchard Laboratories to beef up its tool collection

        * Royals 7, White Sox 1: Quiet night for bats, long night for pitching
        * Royals' four-run inning gets best of White Sox
        * La Russa had guts to chase Hall of Fame glory
        * White Sox gain on pair of reviews vs. Royals
        * Danks and Viciedo trade rumors start simmering again
        * Danks subject of trade rumors near Deadline
        * Eaton receives Sox's Heart and Hustle award


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * New law empowers McHenry County Board to remove.....
        * Internal Quinn emails: Suburban mayoral jockeyi.....
        * Quinn: Landfill's PCB approval may be withdrawn.....
        * Farmers markets laud new state guidelines - MyW.....
        * Internal emails show politics influenced NRI de.....
        * Local Groups Urge State to Speed Up Fracking - .....


        * Quinn: Landfill's PCB approval may be withdrawn
        * Former Illini player dies in workout at new school
        * Court endorses Illinois electricity surcharge
        * Lawyers: Factor court decision into pensions case
        * Rockford man charged in second killing
        * Coroner: Remains found in Rochester shed human
        * Illinois insurance subsidies in place for now
        * Quinn signs $1B plan for road repair in Illinois
        * To fight crime, Chicago tries wiping away arrests
        * Driver charged in Will County crash that killed 4

        * Lawmakers delay probe of Quinn's anti-violence program
        * Concealed carry rules tough on out-of-state residents
        * Rauner calls for changes to state's tax policy
        * Quinn aide: Court rulings don’t jeopardize federal health-care subsidies
        * Lawyers will push to speed up pension reform ruling
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Finance reports show a field of well-funded mayoral candidates
        * Lawyers: Factor court decision into pensions case
        * State appeals court upholds FutureGen power agreement
        * Cutbacks in annual pension increases unconstitutional, Schimpf says
        * Incumbents Manar, Scherer lead challengers in fundraising

        * Lawyers: Factor court decision into pensions case
        * Joan Harris to receive National Medal of Arts from President Obama
        * Rauner hails Uber as taxi war spreads to governor's race
        * Francia Harrington to leave Chase for new role
        * Illinois Medical District picks builder for $300 million hotel project


        * Mayor Emanuel visits slain girl’s mom for 2nd time Tuesday night
        * Rauner, Quinn camps trade barbs on budget proposals
        * Steve Whitman, epidemiologist who helped reduce racial disparities in health care, dies at 71
        * Facebook page helps to rcover stolen music equipment
        * Driver appears in court on charges in fatal I-55 crash
        * Taxi group unveils plan to boost fares, fees to help drivers’ plight
        * OSI Group, based in Aurora, investigates report that expired meat reprocessed
        * Chicago State official sues UIC, claims it violated privacy law by discussing plagiarism claim
        * appellate court  misdiagnoses  Obamacare


        * West Side, South Side shootings wound 3
        * Chicago Public Schools budget expected to be approved
        * White House to honor 2 Chicagoans for arts, humanities
        * Woman sues jail officer, Cook County Sheriff's Office in son's killing
        * Niles trustees give OK for gun shop to be near schools
        * Man charged with sex assault of 5-year-old at wife's day care
        * Emanuel on red light ticket refunds: 'Not for me to decide'
        * Emanuel on red light ticket refunds: 'Not for me to decide'
        * Emanuel won't take questions on red light ticket spikes
        * Alderman proposes using shuttered school on South Side


        * Trucker Questions: Are Police Above Illinois' Traffic Laws?
        * Trucker Asks: Are Police Above The Law?
        * Republican Attorney General Candidate: Pension Changes Unconstitutional
        * Listen to State Week - July 11, 2014
        * With GED, Illinois Bundles Job Training
        * WUIS Archive: Alan Dixon Was Gracious In Defeat
        * Fire Closes State Building Today
        * Billboards demand respect for transgender women
        * State Fire Marshal: No Illegal Fireworks This Fourth
        * Seven Months And Two Storms Later, Executive Mansion Gets Mini-Fix


        * Concealed carry rules tough on out-of-state residents
        * Quinn aide: Court rulings don’t jeopardize federal health-care subsidies
        * Lawyers will push to speed up pension reform ruling
        * State appeals court upholds FutureGen power agreement
        * Cutbacks in annual pension increases unconstitutional, Schimpf says
        * Quinn: Landfill's PCB approval may be withdrawn
        * To fight crime, Chicago tries wiping away arrests
        * Quinn signs $1B plan for road repair in Illinois
        * Howlett Building closed Tuesday after small fire
        * Douglas Mayol: Shops are great, but downtown needs shoppers


        * SIC breaks ground on simulated mine facility
        * To fight crime, Chicago tries wiping away arrests
        * You too can bake artisanal quality bread at home
        * A 10-step guide to digital amusement
        * Human Society plans drive-through fundraiser
        * Mount Zion Library connects with Humane Society
        * New journey stirs emotions in Michael
        * Loren Tate: Riddle me this
        * Coaches, teammates remember Afryl
        * Small soars toward top


        * White Sox struggle and fall 7-1 to Royals
        * Northwest Community looks to add rehab facility
        * Ackerman solid in Boomers' victory
        * Larsen resigns Rolling Meadows City Council seat
        * Struggling Sky gets much-needed win

        * Schock tapped for Scalise whip team - Chic...
        * Lipinski: We can never say 'thank you' eno...
        * US Rep. Roskam could be out of House leade...
        * Luis Gutierrez to La Raza: Get Amnesty to ...
        * Rep. Luis Gutierrez tells Hispanics to vot...
        * Luis Gutierrez to La Raza: Obama Assured S...
        * Rep. Gutierrez: Obama assured me he'll 'st...
        * US Congressman says Obama will legalize un...
        * Latino caucus upbeat about Obama action on...
        * Congressman optimistic Obama will grant im...

        * Letter: Three Blind Mice: Durbin, Kirk and......
        * Letter: Three Blind Mice: Durbin, Kirk and......
        * JA Applauds Introduction of Internet Tax F......
        * JA Applauds Introduction of Internet Tax F......
        * JA Applauds Introduction of Internet Tax F......

        * Letter: Three Blind Mice: Durbin, Kirk and......
        * Fla. GOP Rep Backs Gay Marriage Despite Pe......
        * Rep. David Jolly Becomes Latest Republican......
        * GOP Rep. David Jolly endorses marriage equ......

        * Are Rauner/Edgar alike on taxes?
        * Pimp My Fair Ride
        * SportsMonday: Offseason City
        * The Week In Chicago Rock
        * Fantasy Fix: Studs, Duds & A Cub
        * Comment on Chicago Muslims Threaten Violence Against Jews Over Gaza by » Chicago Muslims Threaten Violence Against Jews Over Gaza
        * George Schmidt. Here a doctor. There a doctor.
        * Our lawyers to Judge Belz. The Supremes have ruled. Can we speed this pension thing up?
        * Term limit decision may spell defeat for some Illinois judges
        * Democrat candidate in 48th House District withdraws


        * Governor Quinn Signs $1.1 Billion Capital Construction Bill - Shovel Ready Projects Will Create Thousands of Jobs and Drive Economic Growth
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Strengthen Ethics Provisions in County Government - Law Helps Increase Accountability for Public Officials in Illinois’ Collar Counties
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Help Ease Pain for Adults and Children with Seizures - New Law Adds Seizures to List of Debilitating Medical Conditions Under the Compassionate Use of Medical Cannabis Act
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Help Ensure Fair Hiring Practices Across Illinois - New Law Prevents Criminal Background Checks Until After an Applicant is Deemed Qualified for a Job
        * Governor Quinn Unveils Mandela Road in Chicago - Portion of Cicero Avenue Now Named for Late World Leader




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller