SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Moody’s revises worst in the nation job projections

Wednesday, Jan 29, 2014

* The projection by Moody’s Analyticals that Illinois ranked 50 out of 50 in likely 2014 job growth has brought critics out of the woodwork. The firm, however, has revised its projection and moved Illinois up ten spots, to 40th. Still lousy, but at least it ain’t the worst in the freaking country. An e-mail from Moody’s to the governor’s office..

The state moved up 10 spots like we discussed, with the 2014 projection for Illinois job growth increasing from 1% to 1.2%. When it comes to the job market, slower healing in housing and government is primary reason Illinois has lagged behind during the economic recovery. In terms of the job market, industries such as construction, finance and state/local government have significantly underperformed whereas other industries have performed in line with the nation. Construction, finance and state/local government made some progress in 2013 but it was limited and in the near-term they will continue to be a drag on the state’s relative performance.

As for the better forecast and improved ranking in January, this reflects (1) stronger than anticipated economic data toward the end of last year, including leading indicators that suggest momentum is strong entering into 2014, (2) limited fall-out from the federal government shutdown and the agreement by lawmakers to reverse some of the spending cuts under sequestration over the next two years, (3) better performance of manufacturing and the fact that strengthening private sector demand should lessen the need to trim inventories by curtailing output. Since pension reform was assumed in the forecast its passage did not directly impact the forecast, though it does reduce downside risk in the outlook.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


22 Comments
  1. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:37 pm:

    Moody’s is the outfit that blessed the toxic assets that caused the financial crisis, right?

    They did it b/c they had a conflict of interest, right?

    No one was held accountable, right?

    They are aligned with the financial sector people who are waging the war on government employees, right?

    And they just mistakenly ranked Illinois in the bottom 2%, when the correction put Illinois significantly higher.

    Forgive me for not attaching much import to rich people carrying the water for rich people when there are no consequences for being criminally incompetent or fraudulent.


  2. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:38 pm:

    In fact, Illinois should pass a law protecting investors from fraud by Moody’s and other rating agencies.


  3. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:43 pm:

    What Carl Nyberg said.


  4. - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:52 pm:

    The horse they rode in on.

    Don’t care. They’ve proven themselves to be prostitutes. They have no credibility.

    Didn’t use to be like that. remember Arthur Anderson before Enron? Same deal with moodys before the crash. A brand of integrity, compromised beyond redemption.

    I used to work with the current Moody’s Illinois guy in new York back in the day. The 80s. Long story short, weigh and sample his opinions before you buy them.


  5. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 4:59 pm:

    Me three!


  6. - OneMan - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:00 pm:

    Yes it is all a big rich guy conspiracy…..

    Glad you figured it out….

    Because the improvement in Illinois unemployment rate obviously indicates we are doing great at job growth…

    I would say more, but I have to cause some more repression inherent in the system…


  7. - anon - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:01 pm:

    Am I interpreting this statement correctly: Moody’s is stating that one of the biggest drag on the state’s economy is the lack of hiring (past layoffs) of state, county, and city employees?
    Hmmm, so we should cut the state budget even more?


  8. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:07 pm:

    All I know is when I see New York running tv ads offering no biz taxes for 10 years and boasting of its low inheritance taxes, you start to wonder: they ain’t no sun-belt/no-social-services/middle-of-nowhere state and they seem to have their act together.


  9. - circularfiringsquad - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:14 pm:

    It is good to see that after about 6+ years some of you are beginning to understand the “rating agencies” are frauds that should have been run out of town or locked up long ago.
    However their nonsense will mute the FarmerBrucey attacks….TFB Farmer


  10. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:15 pm:

    Things just keep lookin’ up for Quinn on what has alREADY been a VERY good day for the Governor…because Good news like this is just yet another sign of that “Comeback” Road he insisted all day in his assertions to us 13 Million folks (in his overall, best SOTS Speech yet) that our Beloved Home State HAS been ON–and now he’s got more real, tasty “proof” to toss into that ever better-tastin’ Illinois Brand “Pudding” he was stirring up for us all to see earlier today…!”


  11. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    Anon:

    You are correct.

    An important fact that Conservatives like to ignore is that the main reason that Illinois lags behind other states in job growth is because of layoffs and hiring freezes in local government and secondarily, state government.


  12. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:25 pm:

    And i say “secondarily” state government because the state workforce is puny compared to the hundreds of thousands of local government employees, particularly school districts and police and fire.

    That said, state spending on education clearly has an immediate impact on the economy if it means hiring more teachers, school social workers, etc.

    That is why the Republican candidates support The board of education’s call for a $1 billion increase in school funding. Or maybe the opposite–I dont remember.


  13. - walker - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:25 pm:

    Yes, Moody’s and most other financial analysts and independent economists, know that cutting government spending, and cutting government employment, is a drag on the economy (in the short term at least), and has been a major drag on our national recovery for the last three years.


  14. - MrJM - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 5:30 pm:

    I can’t believe commenters would suggest that credit ratings agencies would ever let the opportunity for big profits to make them less than completely honest in their ratings.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101188197

    It’s crazy talk!

    – MrJM


  15. - plutocrat03 - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 6:58 pm:

    “state workforce is puny”

    Did you forget to count the staff in the hundreds and hundreds of taxing bodies that exist here, but are integral to other states?


  16. - Judgment Day - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 6:58 pm:

    “I can’t believe commenters would suggest that credit ratings agencies would ever let the opportunity for big profits to make them less than completely honest in their ratings.”

    It’s not about the opportunity to make big profits going forward. It’s all about keeping what they currently have made in the recent past, and staying in business in the future.

    The big three (Moody’s, Finch, and S&P) are all terrified of the fed case against S&P. If the fed’s win, the business model that has been used by Moody’s, Finch, and S&P is put in real jeopardy, and that means all those dubious bond issues pushed out there based on really questionable rating processes are now potentially liable to a vast amount of litigation.

    That’s seriously big money, and if the fed’s get a clear cut win, potentially say ‘Goodbye’ to the big ratings agencies. It’s AIG all over again - times 3.

    Going to be really interesting to see how the dirty laundry avoids coming out from this one.

    “An important fact that Conservatives like to ignore is that the main reason that Illinois lags behind other states in job growth is because of layoffs and hiring freezes in local government and secondarily, state government.”

    The bigger reason behind the layoffs and cutbacks in local government is because the still on-going impacts to the real estate property tax base. Your property tax base (taxable value) in many areas of IL is still decreasing, but the tax rates are going up, with the end result being little, if any increase in overall property tax revenues.

    Maybe 1-2% increase in property tax revenues (mostly tax cap related), but that’s not even keeping up with cost increases. Not to mention increased pension and upcoming health care costs.

    Short story: More local government cutbacks on the horizon.


  17. - Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 7:06 pm:

    C’mon, these reports and rankings are made up more to gin up attention for Moody’s more than anything else. It’s BuzzFeed for Wall Street (with all sincere apologies to BuzzFeed.)


  18. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 8:42 pm:

    Funny how those ratings change after a few phone calls and emails.

    The more things change, the more they stay the same.


  19. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 8:46 pm:

    Try buying a single family home in Lincoln Square, Ravenswood or North Center. I am, and I don’t believe anyone who tells me the housing market is less than red hot.


  20. - ASAP - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 10:20 pm:

    50 to 40 is still bad news! I hope the Governor can get some help from the other Moodys. You know the Moody brothers.


  21. - Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Jan 29, 14 @ 11:55 pm:

    I really expected Congressional hearings about the financial bubble that caused the real estate market to collapse. The Community Reinvestment Act was a disaster waiting to happen. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were wildly mismanaged, but House Democrats, including Franks and Waters, shouted down any efforts to stop the train wreck that was imminent. If Republican legislators had sponsored such a program, there would be people being fitted for orange jump suits, but partisan politics halted any meaningful inquiry and Rahm Emanuel has never been held accountable for his role as a well paid federal regulatory appointee charged with stopping the abuses that went unchecked. What Moody’s role was, I cannot say, but there is plenty of blame to go around. It is not discriminatory not to lend money and issue mortgages to people who have insufficient income or credit to make monthly payments. Oh, yes, they all meant well.


  22. - PoolGuy - Thursday, Jan 30, 14 @ 8:25 am:

    this is after all only a projection. I’m sure Moody’s projections have been proven incorrect or off base before. the year of 2014 has to transpire first before you can say this was right or wrong, better or worse.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 *** Last man standing is leaving
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Quinn again deflects responsibility to IDOT
* A different sort of ice bucket challenge
* Group claims it registered 25K voters this summer
* Today's quotable
* Rauner claims he's being outspent 2-1
* A very good question
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner's stinging response *** Quinn campaign says Rauner trying to "disguise himself as a moderate"
* How did nobody notice this?
* Over a million bucks so far spent against Schneider
* Today's numbers
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * HTC announces Desire 510, an LTE-capable budget phone
        * 8 ways to tell if your mobile app sucks
        * Galaxy Note 4 features, iPhone 6 leaks, Moto X+1 camera & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * HTC Desire 510 wants 4G LTE to be more accessible
        * BitTorrent Sync 1.4: an easier way to share huge files
        * Up to $50 off all T-Mobile iPhones from tomorrow
        * What if the Lumia 830 is Microsoft’s Nexus?

        * 2015 Volvo XC90 Gets Official
        * Kobo Aura H2O Waterproof eBook Reader Officially Launches For $180
        * Instagram Launches Hyperlapse App For iOS
        * Windows 64-bit Chrome Browser Moves Out Of Beta As A Stable Release
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 4 Teased In More Videos
        * Samsung Developer Conference Registrations Go Live
        * Shelly Palmer Radio Report – August 27, 2014

        * Noesi, White Sox look to end skid against Indians
        * Petricka, White Sox burned by 10th-inning homer
        * Indians 8, White Sox 6 (10 innings): Losing streak hits seven
        * Petricka, White Sox burned by 10th-inning homer
        * White Sox sending seven prospects to Arizona Fall League
        * Rodon will start Saturday -- for Triple-A Charlotte
        * White Sox AFL players officially assigned


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * School leaders discuss proposed Amendment 3 - G.....
        * Gov. Quinn vetoes bill increasing speed limit -.....
        * Gov. Quinn signs law protecting pregnant women .....
        * Once-Vulnerable Freshman on Safer Ground in Ill.....
        * Quinn vetoes bill increasing speeding - Crain's.....
        * Gov. Pat Quinn vetoes bill increasing speeding .....
        * On Women's Equality Day, Quinn Signs Law Protec.....


        * Chicago's Little League champs return as heroes
        * Ex-Chicago Bull Brewer pleads no contest to DUI
        * Judges chide state lawyers over gay marriage bans
        * Gov. Pat Quinn vetoes bill increasing speeding
        * Judge says man must stay in prison for 1984 murder
        * Quinn: Agencies must follow hiring rules
        * Indiana, Wisconsin couples in gay marriage case
        * Challenges to gay marriage bans: Where they stand
        * Quinn liaison to IDOT resigns
        * Man convicted of using chain saw on neighbor's ear

        * Concealed carry data botched by error
        * Teamsters vow to fight IDOT layoffs
        * Quinn vetoes bill raising speed limit to 70 mph on all interstates
        * Quinn vetoes bill increasing speed limit on all interstates
        * Quinn deputy staff chief going to private sector
        * Quinn signs law allow study of industrial hemp
        * Quinn: Agencies must follow hiring rules
        * Concealed carry data botched by alphabet error
        * Quinn signs pregnancy discrimination measure
        * Bell wants three debates with state Rep. Scherer prior to election

        * Quinn vetoes bill increasing speeding
        * How a mid-air squabble become great advertising
        * How a mid-air fight became great advertising
        * City tow truck slams into car: Who pays the bill?
        * A fresh round of shock and awe from the Cards Against Humanity crew


        * Dump ‘Fake IG,’  give Ferguson more power
        * Jackie Robinson West fans line up for shirts
        * Judge OKs $2M for fired CPS principals in 20-year-old case
        * Guitarist for popular local band Bloodiest charged in fatal DUI
        * Indiana same-sex marriage ban debated in appeals court
        * Balcer denies he was forced out to make way for Daley nephew
        * Emanuel fires back at City Council’s inspector general
        * Emanuel bolsters commitment to $13-an-hour minimum wage
        * Services set for 9-year-old killed last week in Grand Crossing
        * Will of Chicago mother slain in Bali filed in court


        * Lawsuit: Men were kicked out of cab after kiss
        * Chicago Public Schools reports graduation rate up
        * Neighbor: Slain woman was kind, charitable
        * Crystal Lake bleachers flap still unresolved
        * Man dies after being struck by UP Northwest Metra Line train
        * Jackie Robinson West T-shirt a hit with fans
        * 3 shot on South, West Sides
        * Western Springs man gets prison sentence for stalking DuPage judge
        * Cardinal George cancels Rome trip, cites cancer treatment
        * Chicago native suspected of fighting with Islamic State is killed


        * Green, Libertarian Parties Await Approval For Nov. Ballot
        * Pregnant Workers To Be Protected Under New Law
        * Appellate Court Confirms: Term Limits Not Eligible For Ballot
        * Art At The Illinois State Museum
        * Buy American Sections Required at State Parks & Historic Sites
        * 'PechaKucha' Highlights Unique Springfield Stories & Characters
        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Ameren Gas Upgrades; Carpenter St. Underpass; Pease's Design Change
        * Here's Your Chance To Serve On Medical Marijuana Board
        * Why does South Shore still not have a grocery store?
        * Lt. Gov. Simon Vies For Comptroller


        * Michael Gerson: Too detached to lead?
        * Our Opinion: On matters of race, get off Facebook and talk to each other
        * Concealed carry data botched by error
        * Teamsters vow to fight IDOT layoffs
        * Quinn vetoes bill raising speed limit to 70 mph on all interstates
        * Quinn deputy staff chief going to private sector
        * Quinn signs law allow study of industrial hemp
        * Quinn: Agencies must follow hiring rules
        * Quinn signs pregnancy discrimination measure
        * Catherine Rampell: Corporate tax returns should be public


        * Robert Daniel | Reader photo A participant in the children’s tractor-pulling competition makes her way along the course during this weekend’s annual burgoo, fish fry and homecoming in Chandlerville.
        * Gov. Pat Quinn vetoes bill increasing speeding
        * MacArthur gains interim principal
        * Being there to care
        * Food drive aims for '16 semis'
        * Police looking for two in armed robbery
        * Open Line
        * Why ‘ice bucket’ became so big
        * Our view: Political hiring
        * George Plochmann


        * Fire in Naperville leaves home uninhabitable
        * Cubs' Wood gets first win since June
        * Whoa! Sky upset No. 1 seed Dream with 20-point rally
        * Trial starts for Naperville agency CEO
        * Western Springs man sentenced for stalking DuPage County judge

        * Once-Vulnerable Freshman on Safer Ground i...
        * Tom Kacich: Rauner's focus will soon shift...
        * Shimkus not taking anything for granted de...
        * Shimkus Supports Strikes, Criticizes Presi...
        * #DirtyDenier$ Day 5: Congressman John M. S...
        * Politics Notebook: Shimkus to meet with ve...
        * GOP congressmen from Illinois, Kentucky to...
        * Facebook, Local Chambers of Commerce Host ...
        * Shimkus seeks investigation of federal dis...
        * Congressman recognizes Thomasboro's 150th ...

        * Will County health center gets grant...
        * Will County health center gets grant...
        * Will County health center gets grant...
        * Will County health center gets grant...
        * Will County health center gets grant...

        * Council of Jewish Women backs call to prob......
        * Nelson receives Farmer of the Year award...

        * On Women's Equality Day, Quinn Signs Law Protecting Working Pregnant Moms
        * Rep Flowers at signing of bill for pregnant workers
        * Quinn signs bill for pregnant workers
        * Quinn at signing of pregnant worker's bill
        * Support For Victims Of Violent Crime, Breaking Cycles Of Violence
        * Schneider Presses For Unemployment Benefits Extension At Career Center
        * Chicago Activists Call For A South Side Adult Trauma Center
        * Obama Likely To Move On Immigration Next Month
        * Nominating Petitions May Now Be Signed By Registered Voters For February Election
        * Local Music Notebook: Chella H vs. Angel Olsen


        * Eight Illinois Fire Departments Recognized For Their Fire Prevention Efforts - Award Recipients are an Example of Courage and Commitment to Saving Lives
        * Governor Quinn Signs Law to Stop Discrimination Against Pregnant Women in the Workplace - Governor Signs Landmark Legislation on Women’s Equality Day to Guarantee Women the Right to be Both Mothers and Employees
        * Governor Quinn Opens State-of-the-Art Police Forensic Laboratory in Belleville - New State Police Building Provides Forensic Capability for Southern Illinois Law Enforcement Agencies
        * Governor Quinn Vetoes Uber Bill
        * Rockwood Man Honored as Illinois Veteran of the Month - Ceremony Held at Du Quoin State Fair




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller