I’m big on labor, but the way they handled this GOP primary letting Rauner getting a free pass is pathetic. With all the internal bickering, egos, and different agendas there is no surprise that labor unions have been in decline since the 1960’s.
This is only a hunch (not a subscriber, not yet) but my guess is the unions (at least some of them) were really hoping for a Rutherford surge, and that he’d start getting some of his own money. After he imploded it was too late. Oh well. Hopefully they gathered at least a little data on how effective that nursing-homes attack is, whether we’ll see it again in the general.
I think the GOP primary will be a good test for the We Ask America Poll.
Their polling in 2012 was terrible, especially in the congressional races in IL. That is why I’m a little hesitant on how wide Rauner’s lead is. I believe he is in the lead, but 20 points seems to high.
Ouch…Brady and Dillard percentages COMBINED do not equal Rauner’s number. People can see what they want in poll numbers (gee, look at Brady “surge” and meanwhile, Dillard’s “surge” is larger). I expected a tighter race….but the sampling was larger, the margin of error lower.
The Poll is, “likely republican voters.” For Dillard to win, the unions have to get their members who are not “likely GOP voters,”
There were 767k votes in the republican primary in 2010. There has to be at least 850k votes cast for Dillard to win. The unions have to get the crossovers in or be content with a Rauner v. Quinn matchup. It is that simple at this point.
Public employee unions big ad campaign looks like it backfired. Just got the conservatives to realize Rauner is the one candidate serious about taking on the public employee unions. Nothing like throwing away a few million dollars.
===The unions have to get the crossovers in or be content with a Rauner v. Quinn matchup. It is that simple at this point.===
Dillard needs the FOP, The Teachers, ASCME, to maximize the crossovers at such a high percentage, and that percentage must translate to raw ballots at a level of impact to at least equal a “Punch 10″ avalanche…. and….
Dillard has “no” GOTV to mesh WITH… The FOP, The Teachers, ASCME… and… the GOTV and Election Day apparatuses must do all this coordination that equals or surpasses “Punch 10″… in less than 1 week, given this incredibly late start.
“Other than that…”
This would be Hodas’, his Crew’s, and ALL the Union’s biggest triumph, and the largest successful political undertaking, given all the above variables… Arguably ever… in Illinois political history.
That, is reality. This poll, puts that in painful focus.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:44 am:
==Second, it’s a web video, not a TV ad, and it has been viewed a whopping 263 times. http://youtu.be/R_hfuks2E84==
263 LOL! Probably at least 10 of the 263 from staff/candidate alone on various devices. But it is now up to 270. I wonder how many of the views will be credited to your placing it in Comments?
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:48 am:
“I’m big on labor, but the way they handled this GOP primary letting Rauner getting a free pass is pathetic.”
It seems that unions got in very late too, with the Dillard endorsement. Now members are supposed to scramble to pull a Republican primary ballot. I’m not saying it can’t be done, it just appears to be too little too late.
The dawn of the new Illinois Republican Party under a Rauner Administration is upon us. It will consist of right wing economic conservatives with a my way or the highway mentality placing profits above all else. Rule will be by the banker class.
Worker protections from bargaining for wages & conditions of employment, pension rights and workers’ compensation will be under attack by Rauner and his pals as just another nuisance in the way of prosperity.
Trickle down economics is good enough for the rest you.
This is not speculation. This mentality has been on full display as a guiding light (or laser) for Rauner through his professional life. (Lason, Inc, CompBenefits, Stu Levine, nursing home abuse, etc.). And I do not demonize the rich having done quite well my self. But, the principles followed by Rauner in business are not a good mix for governing.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:50 am:
Anyone see a major swing coming this weekend? I will say this race doesn’t seem to have much juice in Chicagoland. Not sure what that means… but anyway I’d be shocked if Rauner doesn’t win.
There is no reason to believe the new billionaire elected governor will be that different from the billionaires who have always ran the GOP. It could be just a generational change among the Illinois Country Club GOP set, but anyone claiming it is going to be vastly different means that this group wants to win elections, not lose them.
Rauner is not just a self funder. He was a wealthy contributor to both parties for a long time. He was a funding insider for both parties. A decade ago he began considering a run for office, and why not? We have a long list of rich guys running for office in both parties, Rauner is just another one.
2014 was ripe for any candidate who claimed to not be a part of the current ruling class in Chicago or Springfield. And why not? Illinois sucks like a Category five debt hurricane. We just had two jailed governors. We have he worse credit rating.
Who the hell is going to vote to keep the people in office who gave us this s***storm? How long can voters choose a candidate based on the crap negative ads destroying any political opposition. C’mon folks - just how long do you think Illinois can scrap bottom before voter get tired of it all?
You have to be really disconnected from the average Illinoisan, or have nearly zero respect for their opinion - not to have see this coming. What is surprising is how long it has taken.
Rauner is the guy who caught the wave - but take a long look at the other guys and you see that they weren’t even putting a foot into the surf. Rauner has had this completely to himself.
If the other guys wanted to win the nomination, they needed to have tried to reach out to tap into the anger and frustration among voters. Not only could they have said a similar message to Rauner, they also had experience to know how to accomplish the changes voters seem to want.
Rauner is the winner - but the other guys couldn’t have tried less either. The GOP has been losing for so long, the guys at the top of the party didn’t really seem interested in running for governor. Rauner did.
So please don’t whine and cry. When politics gets as bad as how they’ve been in Illinois, don’t be surprised when an outsider candidate wins, but lacks what ever qualities you have been so comfortably rotting away in Illinois with.
It also isn’t a done deal. Looks like he’s got it and against Quinn he looks like a winner, but this is Illinois. We reelected Blagojevich with Michael J. Madigan as his co-chair. I’ve seen a lot of suck over the past couple of decades here, and I’ve learned that Illinois has a knack of electing and putting into office mushrooms, ducklings, future felons and lawyers without scruples. So who knows?
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:41 am:
Nice post, Samurai.
We are the only first-world country that’s trying to repeal health insurance reform. Many are trying to repeal it without providing an alternative that will guarantee coverage for more people. There is no other rich country in the world doing this.
This may work in the short term, but I saw some disturbing poll numbers that may not bode well for conservatives. Non-whites are growing at a faster rate than whites, and non-white millenials support government assistance at 71% in the poll I’m attaching. Millenials are more liberal than past generations and support government assistance.
The polls and the ultimate results will show that Rauner did outspend them all. He also outworked them, outsmarted them, out resourced them, out strategized them and just plain out messaged them. This says as much about 3 stodgy, lethargic, you owe me this office cause it’s my turn campaigns as it does about one supremely planned and executed one. It’s coming out the only way it could considering the circumstances. No big deal, but I’ll predict Brady finishes ahead of Dillard. The union’s waste of money in this race with absolute poor judgment is a much bigger story than what Rauner spent. They didn’t get it early, they didn’t get it late and they won’t get it before November. Because they don’t want to get it. Count on there being a “let’s shake up union leadership” very soon. They all deserve to be fired.
I have spoken to two union family members. One ignores the union email, the other won’t vote in the republican primary. The unions have to address this now.
It is logistical. If the unions get their members to vote Dillard wins. If Brady and Rutherford prove they care more about the state than their egos and drop to endorse Dillard, he has a shot. If both happens, he hammers Rauner and wins the general by 10 points.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 7:45 pm:
The crossover thing will turn out to be a non-factor. Plus, the Quinn People and Dems. WANT Rauner as the opponent for him–they’re just chompin’ at the bit to lay their hands on him even WAY more than what he’s been kicked around about alREADy to even, somewhat remarkably, even MAKE Dillard a long shot at this point.
No, I commented on this latest Republican Poll last night on the Post about Quinn easily whomping Tio on the Dem’s side. Kirk is gonna get the Silver, folks, although I DO give him kudos for AT LEAST taking the late influx of Union Endorsements’/respectable outlays of CA$H for him to spend on TV and Radio, and making what had become a surprisingly lame GOP Contest overall–with Rauner, heretofore, just simply financially overwhelming/inTIMidating his 3 Opponents, really, with his No Limits to out-of-control Super-Rich Guy wild-spending approach to BUYing the Nomination with an often UNsuccessful OUTcome for past candidates UTILizing such an approach, but still while runnin’ away with it for months–at least somewhat INTeresting with less than a Week to go…!
I think it was last week when the Tribune endorsed Rauner that we discussed self funders and how the Tribune endorsed them - and these folks LOST big time.
We just did that last week and I think it is quite clear that the belief that Rauner is winning because of his money has been proven incorrect. Money spent in vast amounts in past primaries did not assist other self funded millionaires.
We are stuck with a need to recognize that Rauner is winning because of his messages and campaign, not his loot.