SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Tribune: Meh

Wednesday, Jun 4, 2014

* Not surprisingly, considering the source, the Chicago Tribune editorial board rules that Bruce Rauner has plenty more time to talk about specifics

Quinn wants Rauner to issue an austere budget plan so Quinn’s plan isn’t the only politically perilous one on voters’ radar.

Rauner plainly sees no reason to oblige for now. He’s surely relishing last week’s projection by the political numbers geeks at FiveThirtyEight.com: Early polling suggests that Quinn has a 25 percent chance of winning — and a 75 percent chance of losing — on Nov. 4. Of all the states with elections for governor this year, only Pennsylvania now has a higher likelihood than Illinois of switching parties.

Rauner will have to get more specific about his spending priorities. Voters aren’t paying much attention in June to an election to be held in November. But come fall, if Rauner doesn’t get into the dirty details, he’s going to invite comparisons to 1968 and Richard Nixon’s so-called secret plan to get the nation out of the Vietnam War.

So, because Rauner has a good chance of winning and voters aren’t paying much attention yet, he doesn’t have to say what he’ll do if elected.

Check.

* But about that projection. Here’s what FiveThirtyEight.com recently published

Illinois’s Democratic governor, Pat Quinn, has trailed in nearly every single early poll against Republican businessman Bruce Rauner. This is one state where early polling may not be telling the whole story. Almost all the polls in Illinois have been conducted by automatic dialers that use a recorded message, which tend to overstate the GOP position (though the only live-interview poll we have also had Quinn down). Moreover, Quinn managed to win in 2010, despite trailing in most surveys during the campaign; it was probably the biggest general election polling blunder of the past six years.

The website back then had Quinn with almost no chance of winning because it made the very same mistake that many pollsters did. Instead of asking voters about all the candidates running, most pollsters cheaped out and just asked about Quinn and Bill Brady. But it turned out that third party candidate Scott Lee Cohen was taking more votes away from Brady than from Quinn. Garbage in, garbage out. The blunder wasn’t in the polls, per se, it was that the pollsters tried to short-cut the process and FiveThirtyEight failed to see what was going on. So, in the end, it was as much a blunder by the famed prognosticator and his computer program as it was by the pollsters. And now they’re trying to rewrite history.

Gov. Quinn has also been trying to rewrite history by repeated pointing to FiveThirtyEight’s horribly wrong prediction in 2010 as proof that he’ll be fine this year. But I wouldn’t be too sure of that if I were him. The website was wrong because the pollsters made a huge mistake and it didn’t catch that mistake, and still apparently doesn’t realize how badly it screwed up.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


27 Comments
  1. - Walker - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Good report rich.

    FiveThirtyEight might still be wrong about why they missed the boat 2010 — but Quinn’s lagging now, and the polls seem to be better.

    Given last week, I’m not sure bringing up any budget plan as the subject for debate, works for Quinn. He’s in a heck of a spot, and Rauner’s generalities will continue to be enough.


  2. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    Going to invite comparisons to Nixon’s secret plan? What rock have the tribsters been hiding under the last 2 weeks?


  3. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    No plan, until it is time… And keep asking… Keep dodging….If it was anyone but Rauner, I would be willing to bet, there would not be this clamor… The Super Majority failed… Quinn is not even signing the budget… He will have a plan out by Labor Day or he won’t get elected… Giving the opponents all summer to pick it apart while they are floundering….Not quite….


  4. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    The right thread instead…


  5. - Liberty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    So Rauner acts like a politician- not news


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    Nate won’t make the same mistake twice. I’m sure Quinn knows that and realizes he’s in big trouble.


  7. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    154 days and counting …


  8. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    The Tribune never fails to amaze. Wouldn’t be surprised if Rauner signed off on that editorial board piece before it went to ink.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    Want to see the lemming mentality at the Trib Edit Board?

    “@StatehouseChick: We endorse @BruceRauner for IL gov in tmrw’s Trib. Why? Simple. Change.”

    Between giving the Rauner Crew an Op Ed any time they want it, or being the Rauner Crew apologist at every turn, even if it means contradicting themselves, it’s the Dopey mentality of the “Simple-Minded” making sure the Trib’s “Guy” has all the cover he needs, whenever he needs it.

    No matter if honesty and integrity, ethics and morals are compromised by the Edit Board for “Simplicity”

    Being a lap dog is “Simple”, understanding your own hypocrisy as a Edit Board doesn’t “add up”.


  10. - too obvious - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    This is all just background noise from news outlets trying to justify their existence.

    Once the Dems start the full court press re Rauner’s vulture capitalism and putting profit over lives, this race is over. I assume the Dems are just waiting until it’s too late to replace Rauner on the ballot.


  11. - Pensioner - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    As much as I dislike republicans in general and rauner in particular (as a spectacular phoney), I do relish seeing Quinn defeated. Either way, Quinn or rauner, nothing will change. MM still rules.


  12. - Langhorne - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:33 am:

    Polling may be quite tricky this year. Rauner barely won, after spending $14 mil. Who exactly makes up his base? Repubs who didnt vote for him wont automatically fall in line. Many could stay home, or just not vote that race (incl me?). Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.

    African americans and their preachers may not be enamored w gay marriage quinn. But will they go for the uber wealthy pro abortion rauner, w platitudes but no plan on education?

    Rauner needs lots of throw-the-bums out, blow things up, voters. If same day registration is in force, it might help rauner. Or it might help quinn. As many here say, it takes a ground game to get new converts, or old loyalists, to the polls.

    Pollsters will earn their money if they get it right.


  13. - Chi - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Isn’t there a libertarian candidate this year? I would venture to guess he/she takes more votes from Rauner than Quinn.


  14. - Steve - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    It’s very difficult to see how same day registration does anything but help Pat Quinn. Since, Illinois is a big Blue state: there aren’t enough Republicans. Anything that sparks a better Democrat turnout : is a huge negative for Rauner.


  15. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Langhorne: He really does not have a base. He has donors, many of whom are 1) out of state and/or 2) disinclined to be active in politics on a “grass roots” level.


  16. - please - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    On a day when Moody’s was pretty clear that not extending the income tax is a negative threatening the state’s financial future - I don’t know how they managed to find a way to knock Quinn for Moody’s comments AND for advocating to keep the rates. Creative writing indeed.


  17. - Obama's Puppy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    The Tribune cheerleaders are ready to get out their pom poms.


  18. - phocion - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:50 pm:

    ==Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.==

    Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general. That stunt (fairly well played, btw) was labor showing its fear of a more formidable foe - Rauner.


  19. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    ==Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general==

    Did you speak to many? I did and pretty regularly. They hate Pat Quinn. They hate Bruce Rauner. They were glad to vote for Dillard and they were more than ready to vote for him in the fall.


  20. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 4:33 pm:

    Rauner didn’t even have to provide the op-ed defending himself; the Tribune editorial board was happy to supply excuses instead for their boy.


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 5:33 pm:

    Wensicia:

    Welcome to politics. Candidates are not obliged to say anything they do not want to.

    Rauner’s strategy cannot possibly come as a surprise.

    Heck, even while Governor, Quinn has been pretty vague at times or moved from position to position on budget issues.

    Blame Rauner if you like, but my experience is that voters in some ways want to be duped.

    When they are leaning toward “Change” in a “change election,” voters are less concerned with the specifics of the new policies than the utter certainty that the old policies will end.

    To us wonks, it does not seem right, but the voters are — in a sense — always right.


  22. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 8:00 pm:

    Rich is spot-on BTW that the analysis of 538 while robust has its limitations.

    It is only as good as the polling it relies upon, and while Nate has been pretty good at building predictive models, there are other great predictors.

    Think of a great pool player. Now imagine that same pool player at Murphy’s Pub in Champaign, with its short wall, warped right bumper, and imperceptible moraines and kettles.

    Minnesota Fats is gonna lose to the guy who has played that table every Thursday-Sunday for three years.

    Soon I hope, Rich will open a thread where we can all lay down our halftime analysis and our predictions.


  23. - Just saying - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 5:47 am:

    Rassmussen poll had Bruce up 3. I heard there is one coming out Bruce up 4. In other words, pretty close race Not Nates, 75 25 analysis, that’s for sure. If it stays at 5 or under. quinin WINS. State is too blue


  24. - Madison - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    Gotta side with big R on this issue. This group hates this sort of politics and I understand that; however, until the polls demand that R speak about this or any other issue, R has to stand pat. Everything to lose and nothing to gain folks.


  25. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    Even the last polls before the election that included Whitney, “Other,” and “Undecided” had Quinn at 38%-40%. He ended up at 46.8%.

    The range on Brady was 43%-46%. He finished at 45.9%.


  26. - Formerpol - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    Rauner will beat Quinn handily. That is my vibe across the state. Even in Chicago, Rauner will do better then usual for a Republican. My vibe has never been wrong in a statewide race!


  27. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    - Formerpol -,

    No “Base”, no Ground Game, versus the Democratic GOTV, and the negative onslaught, and Rauner wins… handily?

    That Rsunerbot kool- aid is fresh this morning.

    “Never”? “Never been wrong?”

    So you had Carol Mosely-Braun over Dixon?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* CUB Poll: 84% Oppose Exelon Bailout - Solar Poll: 81% Oppose Demand Charges
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - New cable TV buys and fundraiser calendar
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 - Friends of the Parks responds *** Lucas pulls plug on museum
* "Dead. Yes, dead."
* Radogno shares some deets on stopgap, blames Chicago for holdup
* Maybe this will convince Democrats to cut a deal?
* Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
* Another way Chicago is behind the times
* More on that Cullerton meeting
* Creating a workaround for new CPS debt?
* Settlement talks in Duckworth case "initiated by the judge"
* Hostage dies
* Close on 6-month stopgap, not there yet on K-12
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Incipio will purchase Skullcandy for $177 million
* Okay, we’ve seen this vivo X7 Plus before…
* Windows 10 Mobile also headed for AT&T Lumia 1520
* Google Support app may let Nexuses screen-share for assistance
* Future Apple Watch may ditch OLED for micro-LED display
* Nexus 5X discounts keep on, dollar by dollar
* BlackBerry might unveil its two mid-range smartphones next month

* White Sox sign top Draft pick Collins
* White Sox sign top Draft pick Collins
* Hahn hopes White Sox positioned as buyers
* Minor leg soreness keeps Abreu out of lineup
* Surgery a possibility for reliever Putnam
* Following up: James Shields takes advantage of room for improvement
* Hawkins, Stephens among top prospect performers Thursday

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner signs ID law making Illinois comply with.....
* Rauner signs ID law making Illinois comply with.....
* Rauner signs ID law making Illinois comply with.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner: No stopgap budget without ed.....


* US Rep. Duckworth settles workplace retaliation lawsuit
* Chicago police arrest teen in slaying of city dispatcher
* Lucas abandons plan to build museum in Chicago after lawsuit
* Illinois women hit hard by state budget impasse
* 17 calves die when semi overturns on Illinois interstate
* Illinois windfall from license plate late fees exceeds $5M
* Illinois to get $17 million for HIV assistance programs
* Dick Van Dyke visits Illinois hometown, starting foundation
* EXCHANGE: Toddler has right stuff to become sensation
* 'West Wing chicken' dish wins Peoria girl White House trip

* Illinois women hit hard by state budget impasse
* Survey: Nearly 1 million human service clients affected by budget impasse
* Illinois lawmakers to reconvene Wednesday as budget deadline nears
* Illinois State Museum given path to accreditation
* Illinois insurance co-op sues feds over health law payments
* Gun bill at Illinois Capitol gets support from Rifle Association
* Budget standoff forces layoffs at Illinois child aid group
* Rochester dipping into reserves to fund next school year
* Chicago-to-Moline passenger rail project resurrected
* Mental health provider closing due to no Illinois budget

* Redistricting reform won't save Illinois
* Here are the Illinois stocks hammered—and helped—by Brexit vote
* Sanders says he'll vote for Clinton
* Illinois more than doubles its take in license plate late fees
* How the Dump Trump push could lead the GOP back to Scott Walker


* Editorial: Trump, like Brexit, rides nationalist wave
* Police: Body of missing teen swimmer recovered in Waukegan Harbor
* Looking at Rizzo’s back, looking forward for Cubs
* MAP: Chicago weekend shooting tracker for June 24 – 27
* Man shot in Washington Heights
* Juvenile charged in fatal shooting just two blocks from CPD HQ
* Police: Man shot dead in Back of the Yards
* Letters: Consult faculty when picking leaders for City Colleges
* Chicago’s sweet Oreos sour with corporate greed
* Editorial: Ugly parking lot victorious over Lucas Museum


* Old East Aurora High School stadium to get rousing farewell party
* Can Bulls fans trust a plan executed by GM so many find hard to believe?
* Blackhawks trade Andrew Shaw to Canadiens
* Fire chief says teen drowned, found in channel south of Waukegan beach
* George 'Star Wars' Lucas releases the mayor's mind and not a moment too soon
* Warmest weekend of the year coming up in Chicago
* Willson Contreras vaults Cubs to 5-4 lead in 8th
* Derrick Rose is excited to be a Knick, even as he looks back at Chicago
* 16-year-old boy arrested in killing of 311 Center worker
* Michelle Obama departs Sunday for a 6-day overseas trip


* Dr. Rebecca Green: When will the gun madness end?
* Charles Krauthammer: Clinton offers empty rhetoric
* Illinois women hit hard by state budget impasse
* Patrick M. Twomey: Don't let schools be pawns in budget battle
* Survey: Nearly 1 million human service clients affected by budget impasse
* Illinois lawmakers to reconvene Wednesday as budget deadline nears
* Illinois State Museum given path to accreditation
* Illinois insurance co-op sues feds over health law payments
* Gun bill at Illinois Capitol gets support from Rifle Association
* Budget standoff forces layoffs at Illinois child aid group


* A look back at the 2001 football team
* 'I never got this kind of applause in high school'
* Nottingham to play hoops for father
* Dick Van Dyke Welcome Home
* (No heading)
* PODCAST: Sports Talk 06-24-16
* Man sentenced to probation in cocaine case
* Hello, new budget year
* Three adults, teen arrested in meth case in Rantoul
* Fairmount man charged with aggravated DUI in fatal crash


* Police searching for men in armed robbery of Woodstock gas station
* Chicago-area veterans to compete in national Wheelchair Games next week
* Red Wings trade Russia-bound Datsyuk's contract to Coyotes
* APNewsBreak: Experts demand more effort to save coral reefs
* Arizona-born Matthews goes 1st in NHL draft; Finns follow

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois to get $17 million for HIV assist......
* Illinois To Get $17 Million For HIV Assist......

* Workplace retaliation suit against Tammy D......
* Workplace retaliation suit against Tammy D......
* Workplace retaliation suit against Tammy D......
* Workplace retaliation suit against Tammy D......
* Workplace retaliation suit against Tammy D......

* Ridesharing
* The PI Week In Review
* Illinois Immigration Reform Advocates Vow To Press On After Supreme Court's Split Vote On Executive Orders (VIDEO)
* Pentagon To Lift Ban On Transgender Service Members On July 1
* Cartoon of the Day - 6/23/16 Guns in Chicago
* Kirk Touts His Anti-Trump Stance In New TV Ad (VIDEO)
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Can ‘Miss Obamacare’ Save Health Care? Enrolling Latinos Is Critical
* Cartoon of the Day - 6/24/16 Rauner impact of cuts to social services
* Detailed Stewart School Conversion Plans Surface With 64 Residential Units


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller