SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Tribune: Meh

Wednesday, Jun 4, 2014

* Not surprisingly, considering the source, the Chicago Tribune editorial board rules that Bruce Rauner has plenty more time to talk about specifics

Quinn wants Rauner to issue an austere budget plan so Quinn’s plan isn’t the only politically perilous one on voters’ radar.

Rauner plainly sees no reason to oblige for now. He’s surely relishing last week’s projection by the political numbers geeks at FiveThirtyEight.com: Early polling suggests that Quinn has a 25 percent chance of winning — and a 75 percent chance of losing — on Nov. 4. Of all the states with elections for governor this year, only Pennsylvania now has a higher likelihood than Illinois of switching parties.

Rauner will have to get more specific about his spending priorities. Voters aren’t paying much attention in June to an election to be held in November. But come fall, if Rauner doesn’t get into the dirty details, he’s going to invite comparisons to 1968 and Richard Nixon’s so-called secret plan to get the nation out of the Vietnam War.

So, because Rauner has a good chance of winning and voters aren’t paying much attention yet, he doesn’t have to say what he’ll do if elected.

Check.

* But about that projection. Here’s what FiveThirtyEight.com recently published

Illinois’s Democratic governor, Pat Quinn, has trailed in nearly every single early poll against Republican businessman Bruce Rauner. This is one state where early polling may not be telling the whole story. Almost all the polls in Illinois have been conducted by automatic dialers that use a recorded message, which tend to overstate the GOP position (though the only live-interview poll we have also had Quinn down). Moreover, Quinn managed to win in 2010, despite trailing in most surveys during the campaign; it was probably the biggest general election polling blunder of the past six years.

The website back then had Quinn with almost no chance of winning because it made the very same mistake that many pollsters did. Instead of asking voters about all the candidates running, most pollsters cheaped out and just asked about Quinn and Bill Brady. But it turned out that third party candidate Scott Lee Cohen was taking more votes away from Brady than from Quinn. Garbage in, garbage out. The blunder wasn’t in the polls, per se, it was that the pollsters tried to short-cut the process and FiveThirtyEight failed to see what was going on. So, in the end, it was as much a blunder by the famed prognosticator and his computer program as it was by the pollsters. And now they’re trying to rewrite history.

Gov. Quinn has also been trying to rewrite history by repeated pointing to FiveThirtyEight’s horribly wrong prediction in 2010 as proof that he’ll be fine this year. But I wouldn’t be too sure of that if I were him. The website was wrong because the pollsters made a huge mistake and it didn’t catch that mistake, and still apparently doesn’t realize how badly it screwed up.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


27 Comments
  1. - Walker - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Good report rich.

    FiveThirtyEight might still be wrong about why they missed the boat 2010 — but Quinn’s lagging now, and the polls seem to be better.

    Given last week, I’m not sure bringing up any budget plan as the subject for debate, works for Quinn. He’s in a heck of a spot, and Rauner’s generalities will continue to be enough.


  2. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    Going to invite comparisons to Nixon’s secret plan? What rock have the tribsters been hiding under the last 2 weeks?


  3. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    No plan, until it is time… And keep asking… Keep dodging….If it was anyone but Rauner, I would be willing to bet, there would not be this clamor… The Super Majority failed… Quinn is not even signing the budget… He will have a plan out by Labor Day or he won’t get elected… Giving the opponents all summer to pick it apart while they are floundering….Not quite….


  4. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    The right thread instead…


  5. - Liberty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    So Rauner acts like a politician- not news


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    Nate won’t make the same mistake twice. I’m sure Quinn knows that and realizes he’s in big trouble.


  7. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    154 days and counting …


  8. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    The Tribune never fails to amaze. Wouldn’t be surprised if Rauner signed off on that editorial board piece before it went to ink.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    Want to see the lemming mentality at the Trib Edit Board?

    “@StatehouseChick: We endorse @BruceRauner for IL gov in tmrw’s Trib. Why? Simple. Change.”

    Between giving the Rauner Crew an Op Ed any time they want it, or being the Rauner Crew apologist at every turn, even if it means contradicting themselves, it’s the Dopey mentality of the “Simple-Minded” making sure the Trib’s “Guy” has all the cover he needs, whenever he needs it.

    No matter if honesty and integrity, ethics and morals are compromised by the Edit Board for “Simplicity”

    Being a lap dog is “Simple”, understanding your own hypocrisy as a Edit Board doesn’t “add up”.


  10. - too obvious - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    This is all just background noise from news outlets trying to justify their existence.

    Once the Dems start the full court press re Rauner’s vulture capitalism and putting profit over lives, this race is over. I assume the Dems are just waiting until it’s too late to replace Rauner on the ballot.


  11. - Pensioner - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    As much as I dislike republicans in general and rauner in particular (as a spectacular phoney), I do relish seeing Quinn defeated. Either way, Quinn or rauner, nothing will change. MM still rules.


  12. - Langhorne - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:33 am:

    Polling may be quite tricky this year. Rauner barely won, after spending $14 mil. Who exactly makes up his base? Repubs who didnt vote for him wont automatically fall in line. Many could stay home, or just not vote that race (incl me?). Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.

    African americans and their preachers may not be enamored w gay marriage quinn. But will they go for the uber wealthy pro abortion rauner, w platitudes but no plan on education?

    Rauner needs lots of throw-the-bums out, blow things up, voters. If same day registration is in force, it might help rauner. Or it might help quinn. As many here say, it takes a ground game to get new converts, or old loyalists, to the polls.

    Pollsters will earn their money if they get it right.


  13. - Chi - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Isn’t there a libertarian candidate this year? I would venture to guess he/she takes more votes from Rauner than Quinn.


  14. - Steve - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    It’s very difficult to see how same day registration does anything but help Pat Quinn. Since, Illinois is a big Blue state: there aren’t enough Republicans. Anything that sparks a better Democrat turnout : is a huge negative for Rauner.


  15. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Langhorne: He really does not have a base. He has donors, many of whom are 1) out of state and/or 2) disinclined to be active in politics on a “grass roots” level.


  16. - please - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    On a day when Moody’s was pretty clear that not extending the income tax is a negative threatening the state’s financial future - I don’t know how they managed to find a way to knock Quinn for Moody’s comments AND for advocating to keep the rates. Creative writing indeed.


  17. - Obama's Puppy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    The Tribune cheerleaders are ready to get out their pom poms.


  18. - phocion - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:50 pm:

    ==Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.==

    Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general. That stunt (fairly well played, btw) was labor showing its fear of a more formidable foe - Rauner.


  19. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    ==Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general==

    Did you speak to many? I did and pretty regularly. They hate Pat Quinn. They hate Bruce Rauner. They were glad to vote for Dillard and they were more than ready to vote for him in the fall.


  20. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 4:33 pm:

    Rauner didn’t even have to provide the op-ed defending himself; the Tribune editorial board was happy to supply excuses instead for their boy.


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 5:33 pm:

    Wensicia:

    Welcome to politics. Candidates are not obliged to say anything they do not want to.

    Rauner’s strategy cannot possibly come as a surprise.

    Heck, even while Governor, Quinn has been pretty vague at times or moved from position to position on budget issues.

    Blame Rauner if you like, but my experience is that voters in some ways want to be duped.

    When they are leaning toward “Change” in a “change election,” voters are less concerned with the specifics of the new policies than the utter certainty that the old policies will end.

    To us wonks, it does not seem right, but the voters are — in a sense — always right.


  22. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 8:00 pm:

    Rich is spot-on BTW that the analysis of 538 while robust has its limitations.

    It is only as good as the polling it relies upon, and while Nate has been pretty good at building predictive models, there are other great predictors.

    Think of a great pool player. Now imagine that same pool player at Murphy’s Pub in Champaign, with its short wall, warped right bumper, and imperceptible moraines and kettles.

    Minnesota Fats is gonna lose to the guy who has played that table every Thursday-Sunday for three years.

    Soon I hope, Rich will open a thread where we can all lay down our halftime analysis and our predictions.


  23. - Just saying - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 5:47 am:

    Rassmussen poll had Bruce up 3. I heard there is one coming out Bruce up 4. In other words, pretty close race Not Nates, 75 25 analysis, that’s for sure. If it stays at 5 or under. quinin WINS. State is too blue


  24. - Madison - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    Gotta side with big R on this issue. This group hates this sort of politics and I understand that; however, until the polls demand that R speak about this or any other issue, R has to stand pat. Everything to lose and nothing to gain folks.


  25. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    Even the last polls before the election that included Whitney, “Other,” and “Undecided” had Quinn at 38%-40%. He ended up at 46.8%.

    The range on Brady was 43%-46%. He finished at 45.9%.


  26. - Formerpol - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    Rauner will beat Quinn handily. That is my vibe across the state. Even in Chicago, Rauner will do better then usual for a Republican. My vibe has never been wrong in a statewide race!


  27. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    - Formerpol -,

    No “Base”, no Ground Game, versus the Democratic GOTV, and the negative onslaught, and Rauner wins… handily?

    That Rsunerbot kool- aid is fresh this morning.

    “Never”? “Never been wrong?”

    So you had Carol Mosely-Braun over Dixon?


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Emanuel blames state for phony school budget
* AFSCME: Cullerton plan "looks like extortion"
* BGA sues IHSA over FOIA
* Michelle Obama pledges "everything in our power" to help Quinn
* The consequences of budget cuts
* Meza wants to become involved in patronage lawsuit
* "Instant responders"
* Cullerton mulls a solution while the savants incite panic
* Here comes teh crazy - for real
* Caption contest!
* Today's quotable
* Adventures in state-funded stupidity
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * How to revert to Mavericks from the Yosemite public beta
        * How Microsoft’s Surface Pro 3 Stacks Up A Month Later
        * Reports of the iPad's Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
        * Amazon Fire Phone: Your Questions, Answered
        * Cortana to pick up accent for UK release
        * Masked gunmen rob T-Mobile store in NW Harris County, make off with $30k in devices
        * LG five-inch WP8.1 handset may be in the works

        * Deal Of The Day: 38% On iZZi Slim, The 4 Lens-In-One Ultimate Photo Kit
        * Play a Microsoft-made HTML5 version of Settlers of Catan in your browser right now
        * The Biggest Pitfalls of Long-Term Goals (and How to Beat Them)
        * How advertisers can keep pace with the changing television landscape
        * Infographic: Are brands shifting to owned media instead of Facebook?
        * YouTube’s music subscription service could be called MusicKey
        * Deals: Whiteboard for Any Wall, Gaming Mouse Under $20, Nespresso

        * White Sox shouldn't fear trading within the division
        * Noesi's arm, Eaton's bat lead Sox over Twins
        * White Sox 5, Twins 2: Noesi Dazzles
        * White Sox 5, Twins 2: Hector Noesi dazzles
        * Danks focuses in on Twins as series continues
        * Noesi's arm, Eaton's bat lead Sox over Twins
        * White Sox send Putnam to DL, recall Rienzo


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Rauner Commercial Receiving Backlash - WICS-TV..
        * Gov. Quinn Donates $1000 to Cover Shamiya Adams.....
        * Brown County gets state funds for construction .....
        * Cook County to get $4.7 million for constructio.....
        * Quinn 'deeply concerned' about immigrant childr.....
        * Gov. Quinn announces $856000 for construction p.....
        * Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn 'deeply concerned' abou.....


        * Emerald ash borer found in central Illinois
        * McHenry man charged in woman's slaying
        * SIU to hold special election for student rep
        * Mayor speaks out on Chicago red-light cameras
        * National outdoor art show to hit billboards
        * Illinois woman dies rescuing boy in Wisconsin lake
        * Quinn 'deeply concerned' about child immigrants
        * Man slain in East St. Louis identified
        * Joakim Noah to address Chicago's street violence
        * NJ Gov. Christie to campaign for Rauner in Chicago

        * Rauner continues push for Illinois term limits
        * Quinn 'deeply concerned' about immigrant children
        * Quinn anti-violence spending didn’t pull big votes
        * Gov. Christie to campaign for Rauner in Chicago
        * Business, labor: Speed up Illinois’ fracking rules
        * Teen collapses at Quinn campaign event
        * Quinn to OK marijuana use for children with epilepsy
        * Coalition: State must move faster on fracking
        * Illinois law a boost to ex-offenders seeking jobs
        * Statehouse Insider: Details, details. Rauner finally has details

        * Joakim Noah to address Chicago's street violence
        * AbbVie 2Q profit climbs 2.8 percent
        * Fast food workers plan Chicago convention to escalate wage demands
        * Obama says tax law must change to stop 'corporate deserters'
        * Obama urges end to tax loophole: 'I don't care if it's legal, it's wrong'


        * Man free after 20 years in prison for murder he didn’t commit
        * O’Hare employee accused of stealing from military foot lockers
        * Michelle Obama to Chicago donors: ‘Write the biggest, fattest check . . . you can’
        * Feds seek to extradite Emanuel’s ex-comptroller from Pakistan
        * New fuel isn’t right mix for Chicago
        * Cops: Gang member fired ‘without care,’ hit girl at sleepover
        * Los Angeles man arrested in 1992 murder of Skokie teen
        * Man, 26, charged with murder in killing of Gary police officer
        * Beleaguered Concept Charter finds new school site in Chatham
        * North Riverside puts plan to privatize fire department on hold


        * Man pulled from river, critically injured
        * Boy, 15, shot on West Side
        * Chicago Park District fall registration race starts Aug. 4
        * Woodstock chef wins 'Hell's Kitchen' competition
        * Feds trying to extradite former Chicago comptroller Amer Ahmad from Pakistan
        * Lawsuit claims neighbor's cat odors hurt property values
        * O'Hare worker charged with stealing from military footlockers
        * 'She was a hero': Arlington Heights woman drowns saving 3 boys
        * 6 injured in city shootings
        * Man charged with June murder in Marquette Park neighborhood


        * Inspector General Discloses Political Hiring Investigation
        * Man Robbed By Fake Police On I-55
        * Illinois Sees Growth In Tax Revenue, But It Won't Last Long
        * Business, Labor Leaders Urge Quinn Administration To Finish Fracking Rules
        * Pullman to get an indoor sports facility
        * Board of Education approves "stop-gap" budget for 2015
        * After Water: Science, art and journalism around climate change
        * Illinois' Credit Prognosis: Negative
        * Questions raised about Daley's health
        * Losing school librarians in Chicago Public Schools


        * Quinn 'deeply concerned' about immigrant children
        * Gov. Christie to campaign for Rauner in Chicago
        * Business, labor: Speed up Illinois’ fracking rules
        * Neal Waltmire: Rauner inconsistent, irresponsible on taxes
        * E.J. Dionne: Blind ideological justice
        * Esther Cepeda: Tough calls on border kids
        * Teen collapses at Quinn campaign event
        * GOP Rauner's campaign ad used made-up headlines
        * Lawyers will push to speed up pension reform ruling
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Stocks-Smith considers another run for mayor


        * Man slain in East St. Louis identified
        * Showers, thunderstorms continue into the afternoon
        * Nonconference hoops schedule complete
        * West-end residents, businesses want action after shooting
        * School site may well become central in years ahead
        * Religion calendar, July 25, 2014
        * Sneak peek at IYB: More pizza in downtown Champaign
        * Christie to campaign for Rauner in Chicago
        * Robber hits Muscatine Pizza Hut
        * WILL taps Bresnahan


        * How to help Bensenville family who lost son to fire
        * DuPage board candidate pleads guilty in Wisconsin dispute case
        * Pope may visit U.S. In 2015 for families meeting
        * Lunch special: Pope lines up for self-serve meal
        * Rock-hard 'Hercules' a likeable take on demigod's tale

        * Jan Schakowsky tries minimum wage - Politico
        * Statement by Rep. Jan Schakowsky on Presid...
        * Atanus disputes email announcing withdrawa...
        * Statement by Rep. Jan Schakowsky on Suprem...
        * Labor Dept., Dems renewing push to hike mi...
        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Imwit) Dares To #Li...
        * Illinois Congresswoman Takes on Minimum-Wa...
        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky's minimum-wage menu is...
        * 'It's an adventure'! Michelle Malkin and f...
        * What Does Representative Schakowsky Usuall...

        * Booker Watch: 87 selfies to go...
        * Booker Watch: 87 selfies to go...
        * Booker Watch: 87 selfies to go...
        * Dick Durbin Uses Glenn Beck's Soccer Balls......
        * Natural on the Hill...

        * Gang of Eight Republicans Promise: We're N......
        * White House Faces Broad Resistance on Bord......

        * CPS Balances its FY2015 Budget with Accounting Maneuver that Changes the Time Period Used to Recognize Revenues
        * Chart: The Number of Americans Who Remain Uninsured After Obamacare
        * Another Planned Parenthood Caught Promoting X-Rated Advice to Underage Girls
        * Illinois Governor says he's 'deeply concerned' about illegal children
        * Congressman Davis working at McDonald's
        * Anti-Inversion Petition Delivery To Walgreens
        * Congressmen, Immigrant Advocates Call On Obama Administration To Allow DREAMers In Military
        * Rauner releases new campaign ad
        * Thorner: Heartland Challenges, Dismantles UN's Climate Change Finding
        * Graffiti and the Civil War


        * Governor Quinn Statement on Unaccompanied Children Crossing the US Border
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Improve Charter School Fairness and Accountability - New Law Makes Lottery Process Transparent and Helps Prevent Conflicts of Interest
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Help Combat Flooding in Illinois - Oak Lawn to Receive $12.7 Million in Stormwater Assistance as Part of New Law’s Expansion of Clean Water Initiative
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Cook County Board’s Additional Advisory Referendums - Cook County Voters Asked to Voice Their Opinions on Gun Safety and Mental Health Care on November Ballot
        * Governor Quinn Signs $1.1 Billion Capital Construction Bill - Shovel Ready Projects Will Create Thousands of Jobs and Drive Economic Growth




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller