SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Tribune: Meh

Wednesday, Jun 4, 2014

* Not surprisingly, considering the source, the Chicago Tribune editorial board rules that Bruce Rauner has plenty more time to talk about specifics

Quinn wants Rauner to issue an austere budget plan so Quinn’s plan isn’t the only politically perilous one on voters’ radar.

Rauner plainly sees no reason to oblige for now. He’s surely relishing last week’s projection by the political numbers geeks at FiveThirtyEight.com: Early polling suggests that Quinn has a 25 percent chance of winning — and a 75 percent chance of losing — on Nov. 4. Of all the states with elections for governor this year, only Pennsylvania now has a higher likelihood than Illinois of switching parties.

Rauner will have to get more specific about his spending priorities. Voters aren’t paying much attention in June to an election to be held in November. But come fall, if Rauner doesn’t get into the dirty details, he’s going to invite comparisons to 1968 and Richard Nixon’s so-called secret plan to get the nation out of the Vietnam War.

So, because Rauner has a good chance of winning and voters aren’t paying much attention yet, he doesn’t have to say what he’ll do if elected.

Check.

* But about that projection. Here’s what FiveThirtyEight.com recently published

Illinois’s Democratic governor, Pat Quinn, has trailed in nearly every single early poll against Republican businessman Bruce Rauner. This is one state where early polling may not be telling the whole story. Almost all the polls in Illinois have been conducted by automatic dialers that use a recorded message, which tend to overstate the GOP position (though the only live-interview poll we have also had Quinn down). Moreover, Quinn managed to win in 2010, despite trailing in most surveys during the campaign; it was probably the biggest general election polling blunder of the past six years.

The website back then had Quinn with almost no chance of winning because it made the very same mistake that many pollsters did. Instead of asking voters about all the candidates running, most pollsters cheaped out and just asked about Quinn and Bill Brady. But it turned out that third party candidate Scott Lee Cohen was taking more votes away from Brady than from Quinn. Garbage in, garbage out. The blunder wasn’t in the polls, per se, it was that the pollsters tried to short-cut the process and FiveThirtyEight failed to see what was going on. So, in the end, it was as much a blunder by the famed prognosticator and his computer program as it was by the pollsters. And now they’re trying to rewrite history.

Gov. Quinn has also been trying to rewrite history by repeated pointing to FiveThirtyEight’s horribly wrong prediction in 2010 as proof that he’ll be fine this year. But I wouldn’t be too sure of that if I were him. The website was wrong because the pollsters made a huge mistake and it didn’t catch that mistake, and still apparently doesn’t realize how badly it screwed up.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


27 Comments
  1. - Walker - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Good report rich.

    FiveThirtyEight might still be wrong about why they missed the boat 2010 — but Quinn’s lagging now, and the polls seem to be better.

    Given last week, I’m not sure bringing up any budget plan as the subject for debate, works for Quinn. He’s in a heck of a spot, and Rauner’s generalities will continue to be enough.


  2. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    Going to invite comparisons to Nixon’s secret plan? What rock have the tribsters been hiding under the last 2 weeks?


  3. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    No plan, until it is time… And keep asking… Keep dodging….If it was anyone but Rauner, I would be willing to bet, there would not be this clamor… The Super Majority failed… Quinn is not even signing the budget… He will have a plan out by Labor Day or he won’t get elected… Giving the opponents all summer to pick it apart while they are floundering….Not quite….


  4. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    The right thread instead…


  5. - Liberty - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    So Rauner acts like a politician- not news


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    Nate won’t make the same mistake twice. I’m sure Quinn knows that and realizes he’s in big trouble.


  7. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    154 days and counting …


  8. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    The Tribune never fails to amaze. Wouldn’t be surprised if Rauner signed off on that editorial board piece before it went to ink.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    Want to see the lemming mentality at the Trib Edit Board?

    “@StatehouseChick: We endorse @BruceRauner for IL gov in tmrw’s Trib. Why? Simple. Change.”

    Between giving the Rauner Crew an Op Ed any time they want it, or being the Rauner Crew apologist at every turn, even if it means contradicting themselves, it’s the Dopey mentality of the “Simple-Minded” making sure the Trib’s “Guy” has all the cover he needs, whenever he needs it.

    No matter if honesty and integrity, ethics and morals are compromised by the Edit Board for “Simplicity”

    Being a lap dog is “Simple”, understanding your own hypocrisy as a Edit Board doesn’t “add up”.


  10. - too obvious - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    This is all just background noise from news outlets trying to justify their existence.

    Once the Dems start the full court press re Rauner’s vulture capitalism and putting profit over lives, this race is over. I assume the Dems are just waiting until it’s too late to replace Rauner on the ballot.


  11. - Pensioner - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    As much as I dislike republicans in general and rauner in particular (as a spectacular phoney), I do relish seeing Quinn defeated. Either way, Quinn or rauner, nothing will change. MM still rules.


  12. - Langhorne - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:33 am:

    Polling may be quite tricky this year. Rauner barely won, after spending $14 mil. Who exactly makes up his base? Repubs who didnt vote for him wont automatically fall in line. Many could stay home, or just not vote that race (incl me?). Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.

    African americans and their preachers may not be enamored w gay marriage quinn. But will they go for the uber wealthy pro abortion rauner, w platitudes but no plan on education?

    Rauner needs lots of throw-the-bums out, blow things up, voters. If same day registration is in force, it might help rauner. Or it might help quinn. As many here say, it takes a ground game to get new converts, or old loyalists, to the polls.

    Pollsters will earn their money if they get it right.


  13. - Chi - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Isn’t there a libertarian candidate this year? I would venture to guess he/she takes more votes from Rauner than Quinn.


  14. - Steve - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    It’s very difficult to see how same day registration does anything but help Pat Quinn. Since, Illinois is a big Blue state: there aren’t enough Republicans. Anything that sparks a better Democrat turnout : is a huge negative for Rauner.


  15. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Langhorne: He really does not have a base. He has donors, many of whom are 1) out of state and/or 2) disinclined to be active in politics on a “grass roots” level.


  16. - please - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    On a day when Moody’s was pretty clear that not extending the income tax is a negative threatening the state’s financial future - I don’t know how they managed to find a way to knock Quinn for Moody’s comments AND for advocating to keep the rates. Creative writing indeed.


  17. - Obama's Puppy - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    The Tribune cheerleaders are ready to get out their pom poms.


  18. - phocion - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 12:50 pm:

    ==Dillard, w a $6 mil campaign, nearly beat him. Crossovers who closed the gap will migrate back to quinn.==

    Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general. That stunt (fairly well played, btw) was labor showing its fear of a more formidable foe - Rauner.


  19. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    ==Those crossovers were never going to vote for Dillard in the general==

    Did you speak to many? I did and pretty regularly. They hate Pat Quinn. They hate Bruce Rauner. They were glad to vote for Dillard and they were more than ready to vote for him in the fall.


  20. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 4:33 pm:

    Rauner didn’t even have to provide the op-ed defending himself; the Tribune editorial board was happy to supply excuses instead for their boy.


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 5:33 pm:

    Wensicia:

    Welcome to politics. Candidates are not obliged to say anything they do not want to.

    Rauner’s strategy cannot possibly come as a surprise.

    Heck, even while Governor, Quinn has been pretty vague at times or moved from position to position on budget issues.

    Blame Rauner if you like, but my experience is that voters in some ways want to be duped.

    When they are leaning toward “Change” in a “change election,” voters are less concerned with the specifics of the new policies than the utter certainty that the old policies will end.

    To us wonks, it does not seem right, but the voters are — in a sense — always right.


  22. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 4, 14 @ 8:00 pm:

    Rich is spot-on BTW that the analysis of 538 while robust has its limitations.

    It is only as good as the polling it relies upon, and while Nate has been pretty good at building predictive models, there are other great predictors.

    Think of a great pool player. Now imagine that same pool player at Murphy’s Pub in Champaign, with its short wall, warped right bumper, and imperceptible moraines and kettles.

    Minnesota Fats is gonna lose to the guy who has played that table every Thursday-Sunday for three years.

    Soon I hope, Rich will open a thread where we can all lay down our halftime analysis and our predictions.


  23. - Just saying - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 5:47 am:

    Rassmussen poll had Bruce up 3. I heard there is one coming out Bruce up 4. In other words, pretty close race Not Nates, 75 25 analysis, that’s for sure. If it stays at 5 or under. quinin WINS. State is too blue


  24. - Madison - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    Gotta side with big R on this issue. This group hates this sort of politics and I understand that; however, until the polls demand that R speak about this or any other issue, R has to stand pat. Everything to lose and nothing to gain folks.


  25. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    Even the last polls before the election that included Whitney, “Other,” and “Undecided” had Quinn at 38%-40%. He ended up at 46.8%.

    The range on Brady was 43%-46%. He finished at 45.9%.


  26. - Formerpol - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    Rauner will beat Quinn handily. That is my vibe across the state. Even in Chicago, Rauner will do better then usual for a Republican. My vibe has never been wrong in a statewide race!


  27. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 5, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    - Formerpol -,

    No “Base”, no Ground Game, versus the Democratic GOTV, and the negative onslaught, and Rauner wins… handily?

    That Rsunerbot kool- aid is fresh this morning.

    “Never”? “Never been wrong?”

    So you had Carol Mosely-Braun over Dixon?


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Money-changers in the sports temples
* Question of the day
* Another Bost rant ad released
* Uh-oh
* Today's quotable
* AFSCME goes with Quinn
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Paranoia will destroy 'ya
* *** UPDATED x2 - Sanguinetti responds - NORML blasts Rauner *** Rauner blasts medical marijuana law
* Bost responds to "rant" ad
* Another day, another Rauner deal under the microscope
* Rauner lashes out at Quinn over IDOT scandal
* Dueling ads are no contest
* Paying the price for making bad hires
* Entrenched party portrays itself as the "reform" party
* Starting to gear up a bit
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Mobile banking on your Lumia
        * First iPhone 6 Unboxing Video Surfaces
        * ZTE ZMAX phablet is a T-Mobile “Un-carrier” exclusive
        * Official iPhone 6 Plus Reviews Report 1 GB RAM
        * iPhone 6 NFC features, Google Nexus 9, Android Silver & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Pre-order period starts for Moto X, G, 360 and Hint
        * Apple’s iPhone 6 And 6 Plus Cases Offer Comfort And Light Protection With Few Concessions

        * Vix Bit
        * Vodafone And EE Could Buy Phones 4U Assets
        * AirVR Virtual Reality Headset For iOS Launches On Kickstarter (video)
        * Google Play Store 5.0 Redesign Leaked
        * Sony Announces Revised Earnings On Lower Smartphone Sales
        * Toshiba Encore 2 Write Windows Tablet With Digital Pen Unveiled
        * Apple Adds App Specific Passwords To iCloud For Third Party Apps

        * White Sox 7, Royals 5: Kansas City bullpen titans falter
        * Sale seeks another stellar start in KC, series win
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * Out call on Viciedo confirmed on replay
        * High hopes, no set plan for Konerko's remaining ABs
        * Ace Sale lined up to make final starts on the road
        * Konerko honored by Clemente Award nomination


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Joliet Chamber honors Slinkard..
        * Candidates need reality check on pensions - Chi.....
        * Company Formally Owned by Rauner's Firm Settles.....
        * Rauner Would've Vetoed Medical Marijuana Bill..


        * 2014 MacArthur 'genius grant' winners unveiled
        * Teen eludes electronic monitoring, attacks student
        * APNewsBreak: Chicago DEA chief heading to DC
        * Southwest flight makes emergency landing at Midway
        * McLean County nixes marijuana cultivation center
        * CDC study: Americans' bellies are expanding fast
        * School bus driver killed during safety drill
        * APNewsBreak: Chicago DEA chief heading to DC
        * New subpoena issued for Ill. anti-violence program
        * Nik Wallenda to tightrope walk over Chicago River

        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * State legislative panel delays decision on fracking rules
        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring
        * Video of state lawmaker's tirade resurfaces in U.S. House race
        * Rauner’s call for firings of ‘illegal patronage hires’ would affect many in Springfield
        * Quinn, Rauner clash on business, hiring
        * Coaltion forms to push school funding reform
        * Rauner’s education plan raises eyebrows

        * American Airlines agents approve union
        * Southwest flight makes emergency landing at Midway
        * CME, floor traders settle lawsuit
        * Floor traders cave, settle suit against CME
        * Boeing, SpaceX to share big NASA contract


        * Flawed reform is better than none
        * CeaseFire worker charged in diamond theft
        * Wallenda will walk tightrope over Chicago River in November
        * Alleged “Orange is the New Black” kingpin must come to Chicago, court rules
        * Fioretti’s old campaign records ‘incomplete and disorganized’
        * Expert: Quinn’s handling of request to release subpoena ‘stinks’
        * Mayor gives Cubs green light on Wrigley renovation
        * Hundreds pay homage at slain Merrillville officer’s funeral
        * Rauner: Quinn pretending to be a ‘folksy, bumbling fool’
        * Man shot by cops charged with attempted murder


        * Police: Boy, 16, accused in retired sergeant's slaying
        * Two boys, two men injured in city shootings
        * Police seek man missing since August
        * Naperville sets new rules on bars, alcohol sales
        * Family of man killed by Wheeling police SUV files suit
        * Mosquitoes test positive for West Nile in Will County
        * Scots, Scottish Americans in Chicago brace for Thursday's independence vote
        * Barefoot man flees traffic stop, eludes police for hours
        * Ex-banker gets prison for raiding garages of Lincoln Park neighbors
        * Hinsdale high school district stops investigating teachers who 'liked' Facebook post


        * N.J. Gov. Christie Stumps For Rauner In Springfield
        * I Like Illinois Website Debuts, In Time For The Election
        * Springfield Mayor Houston Points Out Sewer Improvements
        * Fracking Rules Action Delayed; Could Be A Sign Of Revision
        * Attacks Get Personal Between Quinn, Rauner
        * Who Owns The Rights To Vivian Maier's Photos?
        * Legislature Approved A $100 Million Tax On Business & Didn't Know It
        * Schools CEO: privatizing janitorial services not 'as smooth as we would like'
        * What's The Best Way To Help Kids In Struggling Schools?
        * Quinn Defends Public Education, Though He's A Product of Private Schools


        * Our Opinion: Carbon monoxide alarms belong in schools
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * Michael Gerson: Leading from behind the curve
        * State legislative panel delays decision on fracking rules
        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring
        * Video of state lawmaker's tirade resurfaces in U.S. House race
        * Rauner’s call for firings of ‘illegal patronage hires’ would affect many in Springfield
        * Another view: New law might boost clothing recycling


        * Suspect seeks bond in Illinois meat-tampering case
        * Columbia murder victims' family seeking damages
        * Walk to benefit Alzheimer's Association
        * Bruce Taylor Sr.
        * Robert Keller
        * Edward Lively
        * John Spiller
        * Michael Cole
        * Carlotta Burlison
        * Ella Brown


        * Cary-Grove slips past Huntley
        * Vikings place Adrian Peterson on exempt list
        * Girls tennis: Tuesday's results
        * Girls volleyball: Tuesday's results
        * Girls swimming: Tuesday's results

        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement in...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky discounts threat from ...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Schakowsky backs striking workers at Juno ...
        * U.S. Rep. Schakowsky Gearing Up For Novemb...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky: On This Lab...

        * Southern Illinois airport receives $3.2M g......
        * Durbin: College Students Are Being Sentenc......
        * Durbin Announces Major Investments in Illi......
        * Durbin: College Students Are Being Sentenc......
        * Durbin Announces Major Investments in Illi......

        * Shangri La's Barr al Jissah ResortSpa to o......
        * ISIS fight: Congress to vote on arming Syr......

        * CBA ratings in "contested" Cook County judicial races on the November ballot
        * Recalling Hale’s violin
        * The [Friday] Papers
        * Fantasy Fix: Reality Intrudes
        * U of C, UIC Among Four Obama Library Finalists
        * New Poll Shows Quinn With 11-Point Lead Over Rauner
        * Illinois Education Association Endorses Schneider
        * Report: Wage Theft Costs U.S. Workers Billions Of Dollars Annually (UPDATED)
        * Activists Protest Near West Side Shooting Involving Chicago Police
        * Denzel Ford police shooting 3


        * New subpoena in federal probe of Quinn anti-violence grant program
        * Rauner calls on Quinn to halt secret medical marijuana licensing
        * BREAKING: Quinn in court filing says no to hiring monitor, stands by cronies
        * Governor Quinn, clean house
        * IDOT, Secretary of State and AAA Launch National Child Passenger Safety Week in Illinois - Statewide Effort to Ensure Proper Restraints and Save Lives of Illinois Children




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller