SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Cook moves Enyart district from “Lean D” to “Toss-up”

Friday, Aug 1, 2014

* The Cook Political report has shifted its projections to favor Republicans in 17 congressional districts and shifted ratings to favor Democrats in just four. Illinois’ 12th District has been shifted a notch away from the Democrats

Several polls show Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn well behind in this Downstate district, and that has Enyart backers worried. Democrats portray GOP state Rep. Mike Bost as “Meltdown Mike” for his infamous tirade on the state House floor, but Bost has worked hard to cast Enyart as “Beltway Bill” and actually outraised him in the second quarter of this year.

Some Democrats complain Enyart needs to work harder to raise his visibility in his district, otherwise Quinn could drag him down. Voter anxiety about the EPA could also play a role in a district where coal is a major industry. Private polling shows the race extremely tight, and Democrats may need to air footage of Bost’s meltdown to cast him as too hotheaded for Congress.

I’ll disagree with that last statement. If this develops into a truly anti-incumbent year (and it sure looks that way), then sending an angry hothead to Congress might be just what the voters want.

Your thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - Jerome Horwitz - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    Republicans are making gains throughout southern Illinois.


  2. - Gooner - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    I agree with Rich on the strategy.

    Voters seem to like crazy when it is in their own district. They want their Rep. to yell and scream. Adults are not valued.

    So no, I don’t think Bost’s rants would hurt Bost. Heck, Bost might want to consider getting ahead of the game and running ads showing his rant(s), tossing up whatever economic numbers help his case, and then close with “In times like these, who isn’t outraged?” Bost could claim the “justified outrage” turf.


  3. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    We would use the Boss Toss footage with some fight scenes from the Indonesian Senate and say that’s who IL needs to send to IL.
    BTW Pizza Bobby is getting Speaker Boner to fundraise for him soon…that should be special


  4. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    More evidence of this being Republican year. Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. Oh well, if Enyart loses, he and his wife will be able to collect their $275,000 year pensions. Got to wonder, if his heart is really in this race.


  5. - Jerry Hubbard - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    The GOP will pick up the Enyart and Schneider districts, at the very least.


  6. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    ==Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. ==

    Sheila Simon: “Hey, wait a minute…no, you’re probably right.”


  7. - Empty Suit - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    I say in his district it helps. If he were a state wide or national candidate might be a different story.


  8. - A guy... - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    Run the Bost Tape repeatedly down there. If I’m Bost, I call the stations and offer to pay to double the buy. An over the top passionate explosion matches the mood of many voters. They want a guy who cares and feels it. He’s known in those parts. People know him as a nice guy who’s capable of going nuclear “for his constituents”. Keep rolling it.


  9. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    Where is Costello? :)


  10. - yo - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    considering how far right the republican party has lurched, a republican wave this Fall is really going to be bad news. I hear Costa Rica is nice…


  11. - walker - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    If his high-pitched rants weren’t entirely rehearsed, and had some substance behind them, I’d feel better about them.

    The voters might like them. It’s just showmanship, and won’t be seen for what it is, for a while.


  12. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Cook is only confirming reality here.


  13. - Watch the clown - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    19 years. That’s how long Moses has been in the House. Has to be plenty of Madigan landmines for Enyart to use.


  14. - Anonymous 88 - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Have to say, I think you’re right, Rich. Bost’s ridiculous rant might just endear him to hothead voters, much in the same way that Ted Cruz’s petulant behavior seems to strengthen his bond with Tea Party folks. Can’t help but feel that Bost’s pension meltdown is a deleted scene from that great Tim Robin film, “Bob Roberts.”

    Bost’s website touts his “passionate leadership,” so that’s the vibe he’s going for: passionate as in mad-as-hell. As someone who has already held elected office, he will win votes that Jason Plummer couldn’t pull in (because even Repubs thought Jay Jay would just be ineffectual and brainless). Also, Bost’s website tackles Enyart for his supposed “attack against military chaplains” — which will likely pop up in a Bost ad sooner or later, if it hasn’t already. Unfortunately, such an ad will hurt Enyart in my neck of the woods. I doubt that Enyart can explain his vote as quickly as Bost can demonize it.


  15. - Illinois Calls It - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:09 am:

    Bost needs to go in the metroeast and run up his voter profile. Bost needs to go after Enyart being pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and anti-gun. I mean half of Enyart’s Congressional Staff is gay and although us in Chicago do not care— it is not representive of the district. I mean the Chief of Staff is gay and Enyart plans to officiate his wedding. Boston will need to turn up the rhetoric to bring out the Conservatives and steal this seat.


  16. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    The farther south knows Bost and that he is “passionate.” That’s his base and they eat up that video. However I would be surprised if his “passionate leadership” resonates with voters in Metro east. Bost not being from the ME only makes winning over those voters a bit more difficult.

    More importantly, Camp Bost needs stability. Too many leadership changes. Enyart has outplayed Bost thus far. The levee bill trick was unreal. One would hope retaining campaign leadership would at least help solve that problem. Having Ron, who knows the area, down there is a good start.


  17. - Distance - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I can’t say either candidate is a good choice. But Enyart has been in Congress for two years and what has he done? Enyart is the only vote in congress attacking Military chaplains and he is a former General. He has Town hall PHONE meetings with prearranged questions. His main concern seems to be Photo ops with Veterans on the VA crisis. What about all the problems of his district and the US. Haven’t heard anything on the Boarder crisis or the Coal industries being destroyed. He now has a FIVE week paid vacation. It looks like in the next five weeks he personally could get around his district and have some PUBLIC town hall meeting. Not the invited political leader photo Op meeting. If he wants to distance himself from the people who elect him, he doesn’t need to be in Congress!!!!


  18. - Downstate Illinois - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    Enyart’s votes and positions against religious freedom hurt him - he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi. Costello was pro-life, at least until Obamacare. Even Costello has pointed out Enyart’s radical positions of support for all forms of abortion.

    Enyart just looks mild-mannered. As expected from someone with the character and ethics to support Rod Blagojevich in exchange for a cabinet position, he will do and say anything to appease the radical left. If he has any principles they certainly aren’t a match for the 12th District.


  19. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:34 am:

    =Where is Costello? :) =
    Costello is a registered federal lobbyist. He is out of the campaigning business.


  20. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    ===he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi===

    You need to go take a nap and rest your goofy head. Seriously.


  21. - Madison - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    This year? I believe the “let my people go” speech is pure gold. Obama is despised by older middle class white Democrats in his district, and congress? Well if you have”nt been pounding the pavement I can’t describe the terms used i would be banned for life here.


  22. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:49 am:

    ==He now has a FIVE week paid vacation.==

    Hey dope, so do the 434 other House members. If you want to complain, call John Boehner.


  23. - Anon - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:50 am:

    Dirty Red, not sure where you’re getting your information. As far as I know, Team Bost has only had one change in leadership. And when that manager left, no one else left with him. The number 2 moved to the top and they brought on some new people and things have been working fine since then. Seems like a pretty stable operation to me.


  24. - Mittuns - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 12:45 pm:

    Bost would fit in well with the House GOP. Between he, Kay, and McCarter, Southern Illinois is well represented with Know-Nothings and Do-Nothings.


  25. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    Anon, it is my understanding there was a change before that. Granted it may have been early on in the campaign’s life that come November it will not have mattered, but it might have impacted Bost’s tactics in the early spring.

    Apocolypse, that is good to know. It will be interesting to see if that ever changes. Although I suppose he could retain his status and let his organization make its impact be felt? Not sure. I’m not as familiar with federal lobbying laws.


  26. - Frustrated Voter - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:19 pm:

    The Costellos are privately supporting Bost behind the scenes. They want Enyart to go down to clear the path for Jerry Jr. to run against Bost in 2016. Jerry Costello on the ballot in a presidential year? Fuggedaboutit.


  27. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    Frustrated Voter is hitting on exactly what I have been hearing.


  28. - steve schnorf - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    Enyart backers are worried because Quinn is not polling well in the district. They could have more simply gone to the Board of Elections website and seen how Governor Quin ran in the district last time. Jeez. If Governor Quinn polling well in a downstate district is going to be the prognosticator of choice for this year there won’t be many D victories outside Cook County, will there? This ins’t a criticism of Quinn, it is a reality that he already knows he’s facing, and it makes Enyart’s backers sound like dunces.


  29. - Responsa - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    What some people view as “crazy”, other people see as “passion”. That’s why elections are fun.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    To the Post,

    This is more of a reflection of IL Dems, starting with Quinn, than anything else.

    The financials put the seat in a scrimmage, but Enyart and Bost is going to hinge on National issues within the scope of District needs come Election Day, 90 plus days away.


  31. - The Truth - Sunday, Aug 3, 14 @ 2:25 am:

    Ok, is this the same political report that had this race a toss up on election day two years ago and Enyart won by 10 pts? …. Oh it is. Enyart wins, polls don’t work in East St. Louis and they don’t account for St. Clair Dem machine votes. Bost is going to have to have a 10 point lead going into election day to pull this off and he won’t.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* $3 million in one pop from Rauner
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - State House fundraising report
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Has the haymaker punch arrived?
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - State Senate fundraising report
* Third straight poll shows Rauner leading Quinn
* Last call for tickets!
* Vast Majority of Illinois Voters Support Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency
* Sun-Times reporters want you to sign their petition
* Same song, different century
* Question of the day
* Quinn finally wins a newspaper endorsement!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's cable TV buy report
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads
* Report: Another tie between Rauner and CS-T chairman
* Bost's "anger," Cook's ratings, Foster's ad
* $580 MILLION EXELON RATE HIKE?? That’s the price tag for their nuke bailout…EVERY YEAR!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner pumping dollars
* Rauner pushing IDOT back into the news stream
* Gov. Quinn runs new TV ad featuring FLOTUS
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* No, your eyes didn't deceive you
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * A first look at the Nexus 9
        * Galaxy Lollipop plans, Apple sapphire future, Amazon flops & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Sidecar Tests A New “Commute” Service, With Discounts When You Pay For A Week Of Morning Rides
        * Sony 12-inch tablet may be in the works for early 2015 launch
        * Moto X (2014) Review
        * How to use Continuity in iOS 8 and Yosemite (Video)
        * Monster Strike arrives for North American Android users

        * Leak Reveals A List of Countries Where Samsung Galaxy S5 Active Will Launch
        * Sony Rumored to Launch a New 12-inch Tablet Next Year
        * Nexus 6 Pre-orders To Begin In Canada on October 29th, Starts At 749 CAD
        * Samsung Sells 4.5 Million Galaxy Note 4 Units In The First Month (Report)
        * Samsung Galaxy S5 To Reportedly Get Android 5.0 Lollipop Update in December
        * Tongue in Tea: Tongue-Shaped Silicone Tea Infuser
        * AT&T Offers Kindle Fire HDX Tablet For $49.99 With Fire Phone Purchase

        * Konerko caps stellar career with Clemente Award
        * Konerko caps stellar career with Clemente Award
        * World Series Game 3: Notes and discussion
        * Rollins, Konerko named co-winners of Clemente Award
        * Alexei Ramirez and Adam Eaton Gold Glove finalists, but maybe not f...
        * Longtime scout Provas passes away after battle with cancer
        * Eaton, Ramirez named AL Gold Glove finalists


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Madigan, Rauner spend big on Illinois House races..
        * Illinois gov's race focuses on women, early voters..
        * Bruce Rauner, Dave McKinney and a mess at the C.....
        * Five myths about black voters..
        * The Highest and Lowest Unemployment Rates in Il.....
        * Topic matches for "television"..


        * Illinois quarantine for who touched Ebola patients
        * US judge names monitor of IDOT hiring
        * Radio host convicted of alleged $10 million fraud
        * Illinois gov's race focuses on women voters
        * Judge rules against Ameren in power line dispute
        * Feminist Steinem endorses Illinois governor
        * Madigan, Rauner spend big on Illinois House races
        * Cockroach visits Chicago's City Council chambers
        * Chicago police to check bags on transit system
        * Toddler taken from family found in Illinois

        * Feminist Gloria Steinem endorses Quinn for governor
        * Madigan, Rauner spend big on Illinois House races
        * Officials rethink early vote-counting after Madigan ruling
        * Minimum wage increase supporters urge early voting
        * Sun-Times political reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Minimum wage hike supporters urge early voting
        * Federal judge orders court-appointed monitor for IDOT hiring
        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes

        * Regulators close National Republic Bank of Chicago
        * Rauner, the reporter, the Sun-Times and 'appearance of impropriety'
        * Carol Adams retiring as head of DuSable Museum
        * Chicago police to check bags at CTA stations
        * Shire CEO Ornskov 'dumbfounded' by collapse of AbbVie deal


        * Judge rejects Pistorius comparison, gives 17-year sentence in murder-for-hire plot
        * Keep it peaceful in Ferguson, Mo.
        * Why wasn’t Ebola doc kept under scrutiny?
        * Enthusiastic student Stan Kij, 25, dies of stomach cancer
        * Editorial: Bruce Rauner for governor
        * Back to the past with mayor’s move
        * Illinois needs better way to deal with terminally ill inmates
        * At panel on school closings, board acknowledges more planning needed
        * Marina City residents reminded to watch their step during Wallenda’s walk
        * Republican senators question Quinn’s IDOT scandal response


        * Cops: Man stole semi-truck, critically injured bicyclist and fled
        * Former radio host convicted of mortgage fraud
        * Boy, 17, charged in fatal shooting in Englewood
        * $5 million bond in vandalism of Lombard synagogue
        * FBI searches Chinatown restaurants, at least 3 owned by famed chef Tony Hu
        * Des Plaines man who tried to hire killers to burn wife, friends alive gets 17 years
        * Man charged with DUI in 2013 crash that killed woman, 78, in Aurora


        * Listen to State Week - October 24, 2014
        * 2014 Election Coverage: Citizens, here's your homework!
        * 2 dead, including gunman, in high school shooting
        * Prosecutors want more of indicted police commander’s 'bad acts' in court
        * Prosecutors want more of indicted police commander's 'bad acts' in court
        * Bedrock 66: Charlie Parr Plays Springfield Friday
        * Oberweis Would Back Federal Same Sex Marriage Law
        * Wild Bison Return To IL
        * Scary Story: The Diviner by Susan Vondrak
        * Artist Profile: Local Troubadour Tom Irwin


        * Michael Bromberg: Benedictine looking ahead at changes in higher ed
        * Charles Krauthammer: Barack Obama, aggrieved bystander
        * Feminist Gloria Steinem endorses Quinn for governor
        * Madigan, Rauner spend big on Illinois House races
        * Our Opinion: Bell, Manar, Davidsmeyer endorsed in state legislative races
        * Craig Burns: Honesty, integrity in great supply at CWLP
        * E.J. Dionne: Ebola, pandering and courage
        * Esther Cepeda: Benefits of closing the word gap
        * Officials rethink early vote-counting after Madigan ruling
        * Our Opinion: Frerichs has the expertise to be Illinois treasurer


        * Local Scoreboard
        * Tigers edge Triopia
        * Carrollton ends perfect regular season with win over Routt
        * Local Briefs
        * (No heading)
        * Commissioner cleared of jury tampering charge
        * Open Line
        * Out of line
        * Preps Recap: St. Teresa @ Warrensburg-Latham
        * Big bucks going into House races


        * WW South scoops up playoff berth in final minute
        * Batavia latest to consider adding turf field
        * Boys soccer: Friday's results
        * Girls volleyball: Friday's results
        * Waubonsie Valley pulls away from South Elgin

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Republican Senate candidate Oberweis favor......
        * Republican Senate candidate Oberweis favor......
        * Republican Senate candidate Oberweis favor......
        * Republican Senate candidate Oberweis favor......
        * Republican Senate candidate Oberweis favor......

        * Bruce Rauner & Carly Fiorina Inspire Downe......
        * Have you decided what to do to cast your v......
        * U.S. Senator Mark Kirk to talk with Triton......

        * Poll: Illinois Governor's Race Neck-And-Neck
        * Oberweis Reverses Marriage Equality Position During U.S. Senate Debate
        * McKinney, Clout & The Freedom Of The Press: Where Would Illinois Be Headed Under Rauner's Reign? (UPDATED)
        * Chicagoans Take Part In National Day Of Protest Against Police Brutality
        * Police Brutality demonstrators at city hall
        * Police brutality march
        * National Survey: Many LGBT Youths Face Hostile School Environments
        * Police brutality protest 1
        * Dold, Schneider Square Off In Heated Candidate Forum
        * Anti-Camera Protest Returns To Near West Side Saturday


        * Rauner rips Quinn on IDOT patronage oversight
        * Governor Quinn Announces Winners of 2014 Illinois Export Awards - State’s Trade Programs Help Companies Increase Global Sales
        * New Ad: Labor leader backs Rauner
        * Jewish Newspapers Endorse Rauner for Governor
        * Statement from the Illinois Department of Public Health and Chicago Ebola Resource Network




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller