SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Cook moves Enyart district from “Lean D” to “Toss-up”

Friday, Aug 1, 2014

* The Cook Political report has shifted its projections to favor Republicans in 17 congressional districts and shifted ratings to favor Democrats in just four. Illinois’ 12th District has been shifted a notch away from the Democrats

Several polls show Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn well behind in this Downstate district, and that has Enyart backers worried. Democrats portray GOP state Rep. Mike Bost as “Meltdown Mike” for his infamous tirade on the state House floor, but Bost has worked hard to cast Enyart as “Beltway Bill” and actually outraised him in the second quarter of this year.

Some Democrats complain Enyart needs to work harder to raise his visibility in his district, otherwise Quinn could drag him down. Voter anxiety about the EPA could also play a role in a district where coal is a major industry. Private polling shows the race extremely tight, and Democrats may need to air footage of Bost’s meltdown to cast him as too hotheaded for Congress.

I’ll disagree with that last statement. If this develops into a truly anti-incumbent year (and it sure looks that way), then sending an angry hothead to Congress might be just what the voters want.

Your thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - Jerome Horwitz - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    Republicans are making gains throughout southern Illinois.


  2. - Gooner - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    I agree with Rich on the strategy.

    Voters seem to like crazy when it is in their own district. They want their Rep. to yell and scream. Adults are not valued.

    So no, I don’t think Bost’s rants would hurt Bost. Heck, Bost might want to consider getting ahead of the game and running ads showing his rant(s), tossing up whatever economic numbers help his case, and then close with “In times like these, who isn’t outraged?” Bost could claim the “justified outrage” turf.


  3. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    We would use the Boss Toss footage with some fight scenes from the Indonesian Senate and say that’s who IL needs to send to IL.
    BTW Pizza Bobby is getting Speaker Boner to fundraise for him soon…that should be special


  4. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    More evidence of this being Republican year. Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. Oh well, if Enyart loses, he and his wife will be able to collect their $275,000 year pensions. Got to wonder, if his heart is really in this race.


  5. - Jerry Hubbard - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    The GOP will pick up the Enyart and Schneider districts, at the very least.


  6. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    ==Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. ==

    Sheila Simon: “Hey, wait a minute…no, you’re probably right.”


  7. - Empty Suit - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    I say in his district it helps. If he were a state wide or national candidate might be a different story.


  8. - A guy... - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    Run the Bost Tape repeatedly down there. If I’m Bost, I call the stations and offer to pay to double the buy. An over the top passionate explosion matches the mood of many voters. They want a guy who cares and feels it. He’s known in those parts. People know him as a nice guy who’s capable of going nuclear “for his constituents”. Keep rolling it.


  9. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    Where is Costello? :)


  10. - yo - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    considering how far right the republican party has lurched, a republican wave this Fall is really going to be bad news. I hear Costa Rica is nice…


  11. - walker - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    If his high-pitched rants weren’t entirely rehearsed, and had some substance behind them, I’d feel better about them.

    The voters might like them. It’s just showmanship, and won’t be seen for what it is, for a while.


  12. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Cook is only confirming reality here.


  13. - Watch the clown - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    19 years. That’s how long Moses has been in the House. Has to be plenty of Madigan landmines for Enyart to use.


  14. - Anonymous 88 - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Have to say, I think you’re right, Rich. Bost’s ridiculous rant might just endear him to hothead voters, much in the same way that Ted Cruz’s petulant behavior seems to strengthen his bond with Tea Party folks. Can’t help but feel that Bost’s pension meltdown is a deleted scene from that great Tim Robin film, “Bob Roberts.”

    Bost’s website touts his “passionate leadership,” so that’s the vibe he’s going for: passionate as in mad-as-hell. As someone who has already held elected office, he will win votes that Jason Plummer couldn’t pull in (because even Repubs thought Jay Jay would just be ineffectual and brainless). Also, Bost’s website tackles Enyart for his supposed “attack against military chaplains” — which will likely pop up in a Bost ad sooner or later, if it hasn’t already. Unfortunately, such an ad will hurt Enyart in my neck of the woods. I doubt that Enyart can explain his vote as quickly as Bost can demonize it.


  15. - Illinois Calls It - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:09 am:

    Bost needs to go in the metroeast and run up his voter profile. Bost needs to go after Enyart being pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and anti-gun. I mean half of Enyart’s Congressional Staff is gay and although us in Chicago do not care— it is not representive of the district. I mean the Chief of Staff is gay and Enyart plans to officiate his wedding. Boston will need to turn up the rhetoric to bring out the Conservatives and steal this seat.


  16. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    The farther south knows Bost and that he is “passionate.” That’s his base and they eat up that video. However I would be surprised if his “passionate leadership” resonates with voters in Metro east. Bost not being from the ME only makes winning over those voters a bit more difficult.

    More importantly, Camp Bost needs stability. Too many leadership changes. Enyart has outplayed Bost thus far. The levee bill trick was unreal. One would hope retaining campaign leadership would at least help solve that problem. Having Ron, who knows the area, down there is a good start.


  17. - Distance - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I can’t say either candidate is a good choice. But Enyart has been in Congress for two years and what has he done? Enyart is the only vote in congress attacking Military chaplains and he is a former General. He has Town hall PHONE meetings with prearranged questions. His main concern seems to be Photo ops with Veterans on the VA crisis. What about all the problems of his district and the US. Haven’t heard anything on the Boarder crisis or the Coal industries being destroyed. He now has a FIVE week paid vacation. It looks like in the next five weeks he personally could get around his district and have some PUBLIC town hall meeting. Not the invited political leader photo Op meeting. If he wants to distance himself from the people who elect him, he doesn’t need to be in Congress!!!!


  18. - Downstate Illinois - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    Enyart’s votes and positions against religious freedom hurt him - he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi. Costello was pro-life, at least until Obamacare. Even Costello has pointed out Enyart’s radical positions of support for all forms of abortion.

    Enyart just looks mild-mannered. As expected from someone with the character and ethics to support Rod Blagojevich in exchange for a cabinet position, he will do and say anything to appease the radical left. If he has any principles they certainly aren’t a match for the 12th District.


  19. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:34 am:

    =Where is Costello? :) =
    Costello is a registered federal lobbyist. He is out of the campaigning business.


  20. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    ===he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi===

    You need to go take a nap and rest your goofy head. Seriously.


  21. - Madison - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    This year? I believe the “let my people go” speech is pure gold. Obama is despised by older middle class white Democrats in his district, and congress? Well if you have”nt been pounding the pavement I can’t describe the terms used i would be banned for life here.


  22. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:49 am:

    ==He now has a FIVE week paid vacation.==

    Hey dope, so do the 434 other House members. If you want to complain, call John Boehner.


  23. - Anon - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:50 am:

    Dirty Red, not sure where you’re getting your information. As far as I know, Team Bost has only had one change in leadership. And when that manager left, no one else left with him. The number 2 moved to the top and they brought on some new people and things have been working fine since then. Seems like a pretty stable operation to me.


  24. - Mittuns - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 12:45 pm:

    Bost would fit in well with the House GOP. Between he, Kay, and McCarter, Southern Illinois is well represented with Know-Nothings and Do-Nothings.


  25. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    Anon, it is my understanding there was a change before that. Granted it may have been early on in the campaign’s life that come November it will not have mattered, but it might have impacted Bost’s tactics in the early spring.

    Apocolypse, that is good to know. It will be interesting to see if that ever changes. Although I suppose he could retain his status and let his organization make its impact be felt? Not sure. I’m not as familiar with federal lobbying laws.


  26. - Frustrated Voter - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:19 pm:

    The Costellos are privately supporting Bost behind the scenes. They want Enyart to go down to clear the path for Jerry Jr. to run against Bost in 2016. Jerry Costello on the ballot in a presidential year? Fuggedaboutit.


  27. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    Frustrated Voter is hitting on exactly what I have been hearing.


  28. - steve schnorf - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    Enyart backers are worried because Quinn is not polling well in the district. They could have more simply gone to the Board of Elections website and seen how Governor Quin ran in the district last time. Jeez. If Governor Quinn polling well in a downstate district is going to be the prognosticator of choice for this year there won’t be many D victories outside Cook County, will there? This ins’t a criticism of Quinn, it is a reality that he already knows he’s facing, and it makes Enyart’s backers sound like dunces.


  29. - Responsa - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    What some people view as “crazy”, other people see as “passion”. That’s why elections are fun.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    To the Post,

    This is more of a reflection of IL Dems, starting with Quinn, than anything else.

    The financials put the seat in a scrimmage, but Enyart and Bost is going to hinge on National issues within the scope of District needs come Election Day, 90 plus days away.


  31. - The Truth - Sunday, Aug 3, 14 @ 2:25 am:

    Ok, is this the same political report that had this race a toss up on election day two years ago and Enyart won by 10 pts? …. Oh it is. Enyart wins, polls don’t work in East St. Louis and they don’t account for St. Clair Dem machine votes. Bost is going to have to have a 10 point lead going into election day to pull this off and he won’t.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Kirk touts bill to refund $154K to Chicago Stock Exchange
* Tomorrow's news today
* Rauner launches new blog
* Question of the day
* Illinois Policy Institute wins Round 2 of EDR battle
* A lesson in why tougher laws don't always work
* Trump campaign blames Rauner-signed law for Chicago violence increase
* Republican candidate says he doesn't want newspaper's endorsement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Rate Munger's first TV ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Spotify in acquisition talks with Soundcloud
* Le Pro 3 sold out in 15 seconds, pre-orders number six-fold over LeEco prepared units
* Shazam is finally profitable after a billion downloads
* Spotify could out-dance Apple if it does acquire SoundCloud
* Google Pixel XL render tour, device dimensions leaked
* Rogers bundling free Insta-Share Projector mod with every Moto Z pre-order
* Google Apps for Work gets upgrades, rebranded to G Suite

* Quintana ends 2016 with quality start in loss
* Narvaez hopes for shot to start next season
* Sale to start season finale on Sunday
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Frazier reaches personal goal with 40th HR
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Ventura declines comment on expiring contract

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner urges action to reduce recidivism - AdVa.....
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....


* Kendall County approves $3 million courthouse, jail security
* Chicago announces new steps in possible Red Line expansion
* Ex-NBA player shows fear during testimony against gang
* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Declining rattlesnake species to get federal protection
* Clinton makes it clear she knows many world leaders
* A closer look as deadline for Chicago teachers strike nears
* Harrisburg murder suspect charged with attempted kidnapping
* Illinois pays past-due utility bills for state buildings
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill

* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* State: Chicago-area doctor puts cat saliva in vaccines
* Diagnosed concussions among Illinois youth up 83 percent
* Federal judge OKs improvement plan for Illinois child agency
* Audit: College of DuPage severance outpaces similar deals

* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Why the $600 EpiPen costs $69 in Britain
* Harken exits Obamacare markets as UnitedHealth startup struggles
* Struggling Harken exits Obamacare markets
* Obama administration failed to follow health law, report says


* Man shot in Austin
* Cubs notes: Hammel out for NLDS? Coghlan, Soler updates
* Emergency pothole repair completed on Stevenson Expressway
* Maddon fires back after players criticize spring-like managing
* Clinton in Chicago, shrugs off Trump reviving Bill’s sex scandals
* Man in custody after Humboldt Park stabbing
* Pirates trying to pick up the pieces after 2016 Cubs storm
* Bears predictions: Week 4 vs. the Lions
* Home invader points gun at person in driveway in Bristol Township
* Editorial: Juveniles deserve weekend hearings, just like adults


* Student creates prosthetic so girl born without hand can master the violin
* 3 dead, 5 others wounded in shootings on South, West sides
* Congress puts the U.S. in danger by overturning Obama veto
* Family: South suburban teenkilled on first day of college
* Mom, kids age 7 and 1, missing from Chicago, may be in Indiana or Michigan
* Newt Gingrich, who led impeachment fight, says Trump wrong to revive Bill Clinton scandals
* Joe Maddon's unconventional style has made him the toast of Chicago
* Thursday's recap: Cubs 1, Pirates 1
* Prosecutors abruptly drop perjury charges against 3 cops, plan to re-indict
* Waukegan board member: School security looks 'unprofessional'


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Our View: You have no excuse not to vote
* Their View: More of the same from dysfunctional Congress
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* Bernard Schoenburg: GOP attacks DelGiorno for pension he now won't get
* Eugene Robinson: Clinton delivers a beat-down


* Candidate forum: State's attorney hopefuls In stark opposition
* Champaign school board, teachers union approve contract
* 5 prep football games to catch in Week 6
* Area prep statistics: Cross-country (Sept. 30)
* HS Volleyball: Central vs. Centennial 2016
* Tight end Johnson doesn't fall far from family tree
* Big Ten football glance: Ugly week of conference action
* Bob Asmussen's Huddle Up (Week 5, 2016)
* Wapsi floodwaters close Scott Park Road
* Candidate forum: Champaign County auditor


* Girls volleyball: Hersey's up to Wheeling's test
* Fox Lake standoff shuts down neighborhood
* Rolling Meadows mayor sworn in as senator
* Week 6: Scouting the Upstate Eight Valley
* Week 6: Scouting the Upstate Eight River

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin: Trump “Bromance” With Putin Threat......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Turns Down Several Chicago ......

* Special ‘thank you’ to these four board members
* Real Property Alliance helps consumers, REALTORS® better understand property tax system
* Did you get the October magazine yet?
* Carter urges Egyptian REALTORS® to take safety precautions to heart
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Federal Judge Approves Of Illinois DCFS Changes
* Early Voting Begins Thursday In Illinois
* Cartoon Of The Day
* GOP Group Puts Northwest Illinois House Race On Watch List
* Lawsuit: Chicago Cops Pressured McDonald Shooting Witness To 'Forget' What She Saw


* Illinois awarded $1 million grant to pilot person-centered supportive services program - Program will help persons living with or those at high-risk of developing Alzheimer’s and related dementia
* Governor Rauner Urges Action on Bipartisan Legislation to Reduce Recidivism
* Governor Rauner Encourages Illinoisans to Receive Flu Shot
* Honoring Former President and Prime Minister of Israel - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Friday, September 30, 2016.
* First 2016 Human West Nile Virus Deaths in Illinois




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller