LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Cook moves Enyart district from “Lean D” to “Toss-up”

Friday, Aug 1, 2014

* The Cook Political report has shifted its projections to favor Republicans in 17 congressional districts and shifted ratings to favor Democrats in just four. Illinois’ 12th District has been shifted a notch away from the Democrats

Several polls show Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn well behind in this Downstate district, and that has Enyart backers worried. Democrats portray GOP state Rep. Mike Bost as “Meltdown Mike” for his infamous tirade on the state House floor, but Bost has worked hard to cast Enyart as “Beltway Bill” and actually outraised him in the second quarter of this year.

Some Democrats complain Enyart needs to work harder to raise his visibility in his district, otherwise Quinn could drag him down. Voter anxiety about the EPA could also play a role in a district where coal is a major industry. Private polling shows the race extremely tight, and Democrats may need to air footage of Bost’s meltdown to cast him as too hotheaded for Congress.

I’ll disagree with that last statement. If this develops into a truly anti-incumbent year (and it sure looks that way), then sending an angry hothead to Congress might be just what the voters want.

Your thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - Jerome Horwitz - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    Republicans are making gains throughout southern Illinois.


  2. - Gooner - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    I agree with Rich on the strategy.

    Voters seem to like crazy when it is in their own district. They want their Rep. to yell and scream. Adults are not valued.

    So no, I don’t think Bost’s rants would hurt Bost. Heck, Bost might want to consider getting ahead of the game and running ads showing his rant(s), tossing up whatever economic numbers help his case, and then close with “In times like these, who isn’t outraged?” Bost could claim the “justified outrage” turf.


  3. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    We would use the Boss Toss footage with some fight scenes from the Indonesian Senate and say that’s who IL needs to send to IL.
    BTW Pizza Bobby is getting Speaker Boner to fundraise for him soon…that should be special


  4. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    More evidence of this being Republican year. Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. Oh well, if Enyart loses, he and his wife will be able to collect their $275,000 year pensions. Got to wonder, if his heart is really in this race.


  5. - Jerry Hubbard - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    The GOP will pick up the Enyart and Schneider districts, at the very least.


  6. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    ==Enyart can’t count on much, if any, support for any statewide Democrat in his district. ==

    Sheila Simon: “Hey, wait a minute…no, you’re probably right.”


  7. - Empty Suit - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    I say in his district it helps. If he were a state wide or national candidate might be a different story.


  8. - A guy... - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    Run the Bost Tape repeatedly down there. If I’m Bost, I call the stations and offer to pay to double the buy. An over the top passionate explosion matches the mood of many voters. They want a guy who cares and feels it. He’s known in those parts. People know him as a nice guy who’s capable of going nuclear “for his constituents”. Keep rolling it.


  9. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    Where is Costello? :)


  10. - yo - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    considering how far right the republican party has lurched, a republican wave this Fall is really going to be bad news. I hear Costa Rica is nice…


  11. - walker - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    If his high-pitched rants weren’t entirely rehearsed, and had some substance behind them, I’d feel better about them.

    The voters might like them. It’s just showmanship, and won’t be seen for what it is, for a while.


  12. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Cook is only confirming reality here.


  13. - Watch the clown - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:56 am:

    19 years. That’s how long Moses has been in the House. Has to be plenty of Madigan landmines for Enyart to use.


  14. - Anonymous 88 - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 10:59 am:

    Have to say, I think you’re right, Rich. Bost’s ridiculous rant might just endear him to hothead voters, much in the same way that Ted Cruz’s petulant behavior seems to strengthen his bond with Tea Party folks. Can’t help but feel that Bost’s pension meltdown is a deleted scene from that great Tim Robin film, “Bob Roberts.”

    Bost’s website touts his “passionate leadership,” so that’s the vibe he’s going for: passionate as in mad-as-hell. As someone who has already held elected office, he will win votes that Jason Plummer couldn’t pull in (because even Repubs thought Jay Jay would just be ineffectual and brainless). Also, Bost’s website tackles Enyart for his supposed “attack against military chaplains” — which will likely pop up in a Bost ad sooner or later, if it hasn’t already. Unfortunately, such an ad will hurt Enyart in my neck of the woods. I doubt that Enyart can explain his vote as quickly as Bost can demonize it.


  15. - Illinois Calls It - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:09 am:

    Bost needs to go in the metroeast and run up his voter profile. Bost needs to go after Enyart being pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and anti-gun. I mean half of Enyart’s Congressional Staff is gay and although us in Chicago do not care— it is not representive of the district. I mean the Chief of Staff is gay and Enyart plans to officiate his wedding. Boston will need to turn up the rhetoric to bring out the Conservatives and steal this seat.


  16. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    The farther south knows Bost and that he is “passionate.” That’s his base and they eat up that video. However I would be surprised if his “passionate leadership” resonates with voters in Metro east. Bost not being from the ME only makes winning over those voters a bit more difficult.

    More importantly, Camp Bost needs stability. Too many leadership changes. Enyart has outplayed Bost thus far. The levee bill trick was unreal. One would hope retaining campaign leadership would at least help solve that problem. Having Ron, who knows the area, down there is a good start.


  17. - Distance - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I can’t say either candidate is a good choice. But Enyart has been in Congress for two years and what has he done? Enyart is the only vote in congress attacking Military chaplains and he is a former General. He has Town hall PHONE meetings with prearranged questions. His main concern seems to be Photo ops with Veterans on the VA crisis. What about all the problems of his district and the US. Haven’t heard anything on the Boarder crisis or the Coal industries being destroyed. He now has a FIVE week paid vacation. It looks like in the next five weeks he personally could get around his district and have some PUBLIC town hall meeting. Not the invited political leader photo Op meeting. If he wants to distance himself from the people who elect him, he doesn’t need to be in Congress!!!!


  18. - Downstate Illinois - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    Enyart’s votes and positions against religious freedom hurt him - he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi. Costello was pro-life, at least until Obamacare. Even Costello has pointed out Enyart’s radical positions of support for all forms of abortion.

    Enyart just looks mild-mannered. As expected from someone with the character and ethics to support Rod Blagojevich in exchange for a cabinet position, he will do and say anything to appease the radical left. If he has any principles they certainly aren’t a match for the 12th District.


  19. - Apocolypse Now - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:34 am:

    =Where is Costello? :) =
    Costello is a registered federal lobbyist. He is out of the campaigning business.


  20. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    ===he’s actually to the left of Nancy Pelosi===

    You need to go take a nap and rest your goofy head. Seriously.


  21. - Madison - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    This year? I believe the “let my people go” speech is pure gold. Obama is despised by older middle class white Democrats in his district, and congress? Well if you have”nt been pounding the pavement I can’t describe the terms used i would be banned for life here.


  22. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:49 am:

    ==He now has a FIVE week paid vacation.==

    Hey dope, so do the 434 other House members. If you want to complain, call John Boehner.


  23. - Anon - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 11:50 am:

    Dirty Red, not sure where you’re getting your information. As far as I know, Team Bost has only had one change in leadership. And when that manager left, no one else left with him. The number 2 moved to the top and they brought on some new people and things have been working fine since then. Seems like a pretty stable operation to me.


  24. - Mittuns - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 12:45 pm:

    Bost would fit in well with the House GOP. Between he, Kay, and McCarter, Southern Illinois is well represented with Know-Nothings and Do-Nothings.


  25. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    Anon, it is my understanding there was a change before that. Granted it may have been early on in the campaign’s life that come November it will not have mattered, but it might have impacted Bost’s tactics in the early spring.

    Apocolypse, that is good to know. It will be interesting to see if that ever changes. Although I suppose he could retain his status and let his organization make its impact be felt? Not sure. I’m not as familiar with federal lobbying laws.


  26. - Frustrated Voter - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:19 pm:

    The Costellos are privately supporting Bost behind the scenes. They want Enyart to go down to clear the path for Jerry Jr. to run against Bost in 2016. Jerry Costello on the ballot in a presidential year? Fuggedaboutit.


  27. - Dirty Red - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    Frustrated Voter is hitting on exactly what I have been hearing.


  28. - steve schnorf - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    Enyart backers are worried because Quinn is not polling well in the district. They could have more simply gone to the Board of Elections website and seen how Governor Quin ran in the district last time. Jeez. If Governor Quinn polling well in a downstate district is going to be the prognosticator of choice for this year there won’t be many D victories outside Cook County, will there? This ins’t a criticism of Quinn, it is a reality that he already knows he’s facing, and it makes Enyart’s backers sound like dunces.


  29. - Responsa - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    What some people view as “crazy”, other people see as “passion”. That’s why elections are fun.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    To the Post,

    This is more of a reflection of IL Dems, starting with Quinn, than anything else.

    The financials put the seat in a scrimmage, but Enyart and Bost is going to hinge on National issues within the scope of District needs come Election Day, 90 plus days away.


  31. - The Truth - Sunday, Aug 3, 14 @ 2:25 am:

    Ok, is this the same political report that had this race a toss up on election day two years ago and Enyart won by 10 pts? …. Oh it is. Enyart wins, polls don’t work in East St. Louis and they don’t account for St. Clair Dem machine votes. Bost is going to have to have a 10 point lead going into election day to pull this off and he won’t.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Speaker Madigan: Rauner should keep "non-budget issues" out of budget process
* Rauner blasts Madigan
* Question of the day
* Caption contest!
* The gift that keeps on giving
* Today's number: $34 million
* I got nothing good to tell you
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Happy Memorial Day!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * iPhone 6s screen will utilize smaller backlight chips, iPhone 6s Plus too
        * Play these “match three” games on your Lumia
        * Android M will allegedly focus on resource usage, dev preview expected before launch
        * Samsung goes official with limited edition Iron Man-flavored Galaxy S6 edge
        * Samsung announces limited edition Iron Man Galaxy S6 edge
        * Google Android M codename, iPhone 6s camera, Apple Watch bugs & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Roman Nurik releases FORM Watch Face inspired by Material Design

        * 9 Tips for Becoming a Social Media Influencer
        * Google’s Android M To Focus On Battery And RAM Optimization
        * Unique Sprite Drone Lets You Leave Your Remote Control At Home (video)
        * New Intel Samsung Tablet With 4GB Of RAM Appears In Benchmarks
        * Intel NUC Braswell Powered Mini PCs Launch From $140
        * iPhone 6S Camera Could Use a Sony Sensor
        * Roku Update Brings Search And More In The UK

        * Noesi tripped up by first-inning bump
        * Avisail day to day with knee inflammation
        * Noesi settles down, but rough first sets tone
        * Blue Jays 6, White Sox 0: A new low
        * Noesi settles down, but rough first sets tone
        * Avisail exits with knee issue at Rogers Centre
        * Danks tries to get White Sox on track in Toronto

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Rauner names new Illinois National Guard adjuta.....
        * The cost of gerry-mandering..
        * Democrats expected to advance 2016 budget plan..
        * Democrats submit budget proposal that needs $3 .....
        * Chuck Sweeny: Will Dems leave Capitol without c.....
        * Suburbs' share of income taxes not cut in Democ.....
        * Illinois Democrats expected to advance their 20.....
        * For an IS fighter, a paid honeymoon in caliphat.....
        * Illinois faces budget crisis linked to pensions..
        * Standoff between Rauner, Dems threatens Legisla.....


        * The Latest: Flash flood emergency declared in Houston area
        * Twister kills 13 in Mexico border city; 12 missing in Texas
        * Democrats introduce proposed $36.3 billion budget for 2016
        * Bears release Ray McDonald after arrest in California
        * Rauner spokesman rips Illinois Democrats for 'broken' budget
        * Standoff between Rauner, Democrats hangs over Legislature
        * Safety system needed before Illinois line operational

        * Student concussion bill passes Illinois House
        * Madigan: Democrats will pass their own budget; needs $3 billion in more revenue
        * Rauner spokesman rips Illinois Democrats for 'broken' budget
        * Illinois Democrats introduce proposed 2016 budget
        * Campaign-style tactics fuel legislative gridlock
        * Illinois crib bumper bills stall in Senate
        * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
        * Special funds inviting bailout target for Illinois
        * Illinois road construction funds get swept
        * Law fails to stop Illinois schools from fattening pensions

        * Boeing takes top spot in 2015 largest publicly traded companies list
        * Terminal spending
        * Plenty of rivals are following WeWork into co-working competition
        * How Wal-Mart is hurting Mondelez
        * Why this proposed emergency room annoys the hospital industry


          * 3 killed, 9 wounded in city shootings since Monday morning
          * 4 treated at hospitals after Evanston porch collapses
          * Hundreds gather to mourn 24-year-old football coach who fell at Aragon
          * Madigan rejects Rauner's approach linking business changes to budget
          * Is the water safe for swimming? There's an app for that
          * Long-running Lakeview parade teaches children about Memorial Day
          * YouTube video shows apparent Albany Park shootout
          * Girl, 14, went missing more than a week ago on West Side
          * About $20,000 stolen in McKinley Park burglary
          * Bears release Ray McDonald after arrest on domestic violence charge


          * Chicago Bears' Ray McDonald arrested in domestic violence case
          * Bears release Ray McDonald after domestic violence arrest in California
          * The unsung hero of urban planning who made it easy to get around Chicago
          * Expert panel criticizes medical care at Illinois prisons
          * Chicago school board to consider charter relocations, renewals
          * 'Lifebooks' help kids in foster care track their history
          * Vets' best friend: Two veterans trekking cross-country with the dogs that 'saved their lives'
          * Illinois Supreme Court hears $10B Phillip Morris appeal
          * Sheriff calls on feds to investigate Puerto Rican agencies that send addicts to Chicago
          * Sheriff names clinical psychologist to run Cook County Jail


          * Kathleen Parker: Who's the studliest of them all?
          * Student concussion bill passes Illinois House
          * Madigan: Democrats will pass their own budget; needs $3 billion in more revenue
          * U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk: Support free trade for Illinois farmers' sake
          * Campaign-style tactics fuel legislative gridlock
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Adam Lopez, Rob Mellon, vie to win Aaron Schock's former U.S. House seat for Democrats
          * Illinois crib bumper bills stall in Senate
          * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
          * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
          * Our Opinion: Will someone please lead Illinois?


          * Bishop: ‘No animosity’ toward priest
          * Public Safety: Gunfire, accident in Normal
          * Police Beat
          * Open Line
          * William Michael
          * Andy Baker Jr.
          * Gerald Neher
          * Mary Childers
          * Carolyn Parks
          * Democrats roll out budget without Rauner support


          * Another Blackhawks heart attack: Late rally ends in OT loss
          * 3 stars of the game
          * LEADING OFF: Reds skid, Texas rolls, Bradley aims to rebound
          * Company hopes to remove ruptured oil pipeline by Tuesday
          * NBA MVP Curry OK after fall as Warriors lose to Rockets

          * Nerstrom remembered at PTSD awareness event
          * Chicago: 'We got a beautiful city, but it ...
          * Community leaders meet about Hero Street coin
          * Local Congressman Warns Against Defense Sp...
          * Laura Washington: A crowd gathers to chall...
          * Democrats’ path to victory in the House: I...
          * Roger That: U.S. Rep. Mike Bost to hold ‘l...
          * Commemorative coin may honor Hero Street v...
          * Black candidates make history in McKeesport
          * Emmer named to House Financial Services Co...

          * Congress' familiar path: short-term solutions...
          * US 'is slapping oldest ally in the face ov......
          * Yats To Washington: Please Buy Ukraine...

          * Bomb threat, man on no-fly list delay Kirk......

          * Star-Studded Best Picture Nominee At The Bezazian This Saturday
          * Art Opening On Friday
          * Star-Studded Best Picture Nominated Film At The Bezazian This Saturday
          * Holiday ‘blues’ leaves many for dead; but not in a way we’d honor and respect
          * Round Lake Park Appointee Arrested
          * Norwood Park remembers -- Memorial Day 2015
          * Fantasy Fix: The Bryce Is Right
          * When Did They Put A Hardware Store There?
          * The Last Piece
          * Hope You're Having A Great Memorial Day


          * The Illinois Department of Public Health Urges Illinoisans to Take Precautions Against West Nile Virus - Illinois Department of Public Health offers tips for avoiding mosquito bites
          * IDOT Suspends Non-Emergency Road Work for Memorial Day Holiday Weekend - Lanes Opened to Improve Traffic Flow
          * Illinois State Fire Marshal Recognizes EMS Week
          * IDOT, ISP: Drive Safe, Drive Smart Over Memorial Day Weekend - Click It or Ticket Campaign Continues, New “Driving Dead” Episode Debuts
          * Breakfast Club Fans Can Take Home Movie Memorabilia with Special 30th Anniversary Auction - Theater Chairs from Set of Iconic Movie Up for Sale




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller