Governor Bruce Rauner has hit a brick wall attempting to convince House Speaker Michael Madigan to come to the negotiating table to talk about ending the long governmental impasse and then working out a budget deal. So after holding numerous public appearances to demand a sit-down, Rauner shifted gears last week when the two Republican legislative leaders trotted out a new spending plan to provide $1.3 billion to fund human services and other programs.
The proposal would partly be funded with some pension reforms that Republicans claim will save $780 million. The reforms include some accounting changes and pushing off pension costs to local schools and to higher-education institutions for salaries above $180,000 a year. But there are relatively few employees making more than $180K a year, and the $780 million is about a third of the state’s annual “normal costs” for pensions, so it seems somewhat difficult to believe that these savings are actually as high as billed.
And even if the money is real, the $1.3-billion GOP proposal is significantly smaller than either appropriations bill passed by the legislature’s Democratic majorities. The Senate Democrats’ spending plan was pegged at about $3.8 billion, with half of that ($1.9 billion) going to social services.
Still, the bill could very well generate some interest among rank-and-file Democrats worried about the implosion of the state’s social safety net as a possible next step in the negotiating process. For instance, the legislation appropriates more than $10 million for the Adult Redeploy program, which diverts nonviolent offenders from prison terms. That money would come from the General Revenue Fund, but the legislation also uses money from special state funds to pay for programs popular with Democrats that aren’t currently being funded by the state, like homeless-youth services.
By far, however, the most intriguing aspect of the Republican bill is what’s not in it – at least not yet. None of Rauner’s usual anti-union “poison pills” is attached. The governor has demanded the passage of several reforms as a condition for talking about the budget, but none of those is overtly attached to this new Republican proposal.
The GOP legislation also gives the governor some spending-transfer authority within the budget, but it appears to be much more limited than earlier demands for near dictatorial control over moving around just about every state dollar as he saw fit.
And while the GOP appropriations bill might not actually be fully funded by its pension component, it certainly has more funding behind it than either Democratic plan out there right now. And still more funding could be found by using part of the Democrats’ proposal, which includes forgiving about $450 million in loans from special state funds (an idea that the governor had previously said he could probably live with).
The idea, it appears, is to present a far more “reasonable” GOP face than in the recent past – and put Madigan on defense both for hiding behind his incessant political games and for refusing to come to the bargaining table, thus allowing the state to crash and burn while waiting for the governor to cave.
An official close to Mayor Rahm Emanuel said last week that his boss and Rauner have regularly spoken with each other despite all the harsh public sniping between the two men. The governor, he said, claims that he wants to make a deal.
But Madigan just doesn’t believe that private talks with the governor will work because they obviously haven’t borne fruit since this crisis began in late May of last year, when the Democrats rammed through a hugely unbalanced budget that was then almost completely vetoed by Rauner.
I totally get the lack of trust the Democrats have in this governor. He has broken confidences, has broken his word, and has attempted to break their, um, stones by hurling insults for months. I also fully appreciate the tension that has built up on both sides during the past 14 months or so.
But it’s not like anybody’s doing anything else while we all wait around for Armageddon.
Private negotiations are obviously preferable to public negotiations, but private negotiations are off the table right now because Madigan says so. (And he has his reasons, some better than others.) So public negotiations are better than no negotiations at all, and we’ll have to take what we can get.
Hopefully, we’ll see a counter-offer from the Democrats soon.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:18 am:
===None of Rauner’s usual anti-union “poison pills” is attached. The governor has demanded the passage of several reforms as a condition for talking about the budget, but none of those is overtly attached to this new Republican proposal.===
This is huge. No snark, not overstating.
If the Governor and his Legislative Shop wants to out serious pressure on Democrats, here is the first and best way to do it…
Geez, Louise, 14 months, now you have your out that’s been there for… the past 14 months.
A smart governor would turn the screws on this, “no poison pills, how about a deal?”
Ok Dems, now what? It would even behoove Labor to get behind (tepidly) this, allowing the Governor a clean out, and a break in the stalemate.
- No Use For A Name - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:24 am:
This is another one of the ‘olive branches’ O’Connor and Dahl were talking about over the weekend. Now we get to see if Madigan is finally interested in operating in good faith as well, and willing to put the state’s interests ahead of his own.
- Liberty - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:24 am:
Republicans have had enough of Rauner’s extremism? I guess loosing those primary raises did have an impact.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:29 am:
===This is another one of the ‘olive branches’…===
No, it’s not.
This is a “first-type” no “poison pill” structured proposal. Nothing before has been structured like this.
Please, keep up.
- downstate commissioner - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:29 am:
Does look like R’s are beginning to get the message, but will Rauner accept this proposal without his agenda on it? More importantly, will he actually sign a compromise bill like this, or double-cross everyone again with amendatory vetoes?
- A guy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:36 am:
This is the moment to take a step in the right direction. The dynamics have changed. There’s nothing in there to oppose for the Dems. There will be no watershed moment of caving. This is a step. Take it.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:36 am:
The “real money” in the proposal is an $858 million sweep of “other funds.”
Has anyone copped to what other funds are in play?
- illlinifan - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:37 am:
The Dems need to jump on this one. Get it to the governors desk and dare him to veto a clean bill. If he does veto the bill, he alienates members of his own party and really makes the case the governor himself is the problem. If he approves the bill, he establishes a precedent that says he is willing to accept legislation without the poison pills, and gives more leverage for establishing a process to get out of this mess.
- Juice - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:39 am:
Said it last week, will say it again this week. The bulk of the Governor’s pension savings come from the accounting “changes,” and not the cost shift for high salaried employees.
Those changes (assumption smoothing and using total payroll instead of covered payroll) are simply under paying now so that the can may be kicked into the future.
Based on that, the Dems proposal to do a hefty amount of deficit spending is somehow more fiscally responsible than the GOPs proposal.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:41 am:
Word, the funds are listed in the approp bill.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:41 am:
===There will be no watershed moment of caving.===
No poison pills IS caving to pressure of… “Stop the poison pills”
By caving, the leverage now is upon the Dems to realize that the “poison pills” aspect puts front and center a serious discussion.
- A Guy -, understand… for 14 months Rauner continued these Union-Busting poison pills, making legislation un-passable.
What’s left after eliminating the “poison pills”?
Yeah, I see nothing either…
- cdog - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:42 am:
Good to get all these points in print.
“(And he has his reasons, some better than others.)”
Very intriguing….
- Beaner - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Do not expect sixty and thirty until Radogno and Durkin put forth the Revenue plan for the Governor’s requests for billions in new and ever greater spending.
- No Use For A Name - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:51 am:
‘No, it’s not.’
This is exactly what they were discussing.
In addition, not including a poison pill is exactly what you say it is not - an olive branch. Feeling fiesty today? Or just clueless?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:57 am:
===In addition, not including a poison pill is exactly what you say it is not - an olive branch.===
If you can’t get 60 and 30 for it, it’s admitting, “I can’t get 60 and 30, so I better stop”
Admitting what everyone already knew existed (no majority legislative support) after 14 months also puts into play…
1) Rauner is a ridiculously slow learner in 60/30
2) Saving face isn’t an olive branch.
3) What’s important now is what’s “NOT” in it… that’s hnique and new, not a continuation of many, many, non-poison pill solutions.
Being willfully ignorant isn’t crutch…
- Sue - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:59 am:
Doesn’t everyone know that Lisa Madigans 2018 bid for G is all MM is focused on. She becomes Gov and he retires. Who cares what happens between now and then? Not Mike
- CharlieKratos - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 9:59 am:
I’m pretty sure that state workers would disagree with the statement that this contains no “poison pills”. This is just, once again, putting the burden on teachers and state workers.
- LizPhairTax - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:02 am:
Sue,
That’s a well-thought-out comment that really advanced the discussion. Thank you for your contribution.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:03 am:
Sue, Lisa has said she won’t run as long as her father is speaker. You should be cheering on a Lisa run because that would mean MJM is leaving.
Try to keep up. You’re using very old talking points.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:05 am:
Someone… back in 2002… is cheering on Sue.
- RNUG - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:06 am:
Movement is good. How the GOP side of the aisle votes on this bill will be telling and, yes, I realize this is their idea. Madigan may let it pass but not vote for it.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:07 am:
AFSCME won’t be behind anything until Rauner returns to the contract negotiating table and removes the gun from our heads. I think this is merely a stalling tactic before the big showdown with labor. I know everyone is all excited at the possibility of ending the stalemate but he could have done that months ago. Let’s face it, money would go to social services but they are already for the most part too far gone. Money will concentrate in wealthy areas that have Ball/Gala social services and little will go to where they are needed most. Because most private social service agencies in the really impoverished areas are down for the count already. Again it will take decades to restore. Not to mention that the reduced amount to social services will set precedent and never be fully restored.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:08 am:
–Doesn’t everyone know that Lisa Madigans 2018 bid for G is all MM is focused on.–
Yep, MJM refusing to step aside so Lisa could run in 2014 was just part of the decades-old conspiracy.
Diabolical.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:10 am:
===Madigan may let it pass but not vote for it.===
- RNUG -, I had a discussion on things and I came to a conclusion same as where you seem to be.
Madigan will structure the roll calls…
Madigan will be “Yellow” on the structured roll calls too.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:13 am:
“Ok Dems, now what? It would even behoove Labor to get behind (tepidly) this, allowing the Governor a clean out, and a break in the stalemate.”
I agree. In order for there to be a budget, it seems quite clear that the anti-union poison pills have to go. If Rauner moves in that direction, Democrats should at least follow him there and try to build on any progress.
- No Use For A Name - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:26 am:
‘If you can’t get 60 and 30 for it, it’s admitting’
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. Nothing has changed other than this gesture. Rauner still does not have 60 and 30. Madigan still does not have 71.
If Madigan does not respond in kind with a similar olive branch of his own, things may go right back to the way they were until at least next January when new members are sworn in.
- Johnnie F. - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:30 am:
So there will be $780 million in pension savings that will be spent on current operations. Am I the only one who thinks that pension savings should be directed toward the unfunded pension liability. This seems like just a different way of skipping pension payments…at least in my book.
- Rasselas - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:31 am:
If the bill passes and Rauner AV’s to add his poison pills, does this exercise just give the Republicans a rollcall to show their voters that they supported these programs?
- walker - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:32 am:
One-tenth of a loaf is better than none.
- A guy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:33 am:
===No poison pills IS caving to pressure of… “Stop the poison pills”====
Dude, if that works for you, we may just be getting somewhere. Since there are no other good ideas and principles in the bill, right? Who cares about semantics…pass a bill.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:39 am:
Sue, Lisa has said she won’t run as long as her father is speaker. You should be cheering on a Lisa run because that would mean MJM is leaving.
Why would anyone except the 1%er Social Club cheer for this?
Also missin’ from the Durkie/Senate Minority Leader bill is $ for higher ed., but that can be an amendment.
Send the bill to BigBrain, let him veto and then override. Near term problem addressed. BigBrain doesn’t smeared in national media for closin’ CSU. Directionals can limp along
Might not even need one of those dopey meetin’s to get it done.
BigBrain can focus on savin’ CommandoMakeItUo with Trump on top of ticket.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:40 am:
===Madigan still does not have 71.===
Rauner stopped over 60 veto overrides.
Rauner has wanted the impasse.
If you are suggesting Rauner is totally inept and Madigan is required, for the betterment of Illinois, to go around such an inept governor, we agree!
How can I help you get everyone to work around Rauner? LOL.
===If Madigan does not respond in kind with a similar olive branch of his own, things may go right back to the way they were until at least next January when new members are sworn in.===
No. Please understand process…
All Madigan needs to do is get Rauner to 60, less the poison pills, and then hope the least trustworthy governor since Rod Blagojevich signs the bill(s) clean.
That’s it.
Rauner can’t get anything passed without Madigan, Madigan won’t run bills unless they embarrass the Raunerites without structured roll calls and a guarantee of a clean signing.
That’s it.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:44 am:
===Since there are no other good ideas and principles in the bill, right? Who cares about semantics…pass a bill.===
- A Guy -
Being pragmatic, I know the poison pills are killing bills. Start with removing poison pills, we may be way closer than we all want to admit.
I’ve said it many times, had Rauner learned the Kasich lessons on Labor I know I’d be one who could point to my three “wants” since inauguration as “done deals”
Caving to the truth that 60/30 isn’t their for the poison pills put the onus on the Dems, in a big way, to engage.
- Earnest - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:14 am:
>One-tenth of a loaf is better than none.
I don’t know…if you’re in a battle for survival with someone who only needs 1.4% of a loaf a month to maintain, he’ll avoid starving for 3.57 weeks while you, who needs 6% of a loaf, will be starving in 1.2 months. Over the next 2.37 months, you’ll keep getting weaker and he’ll keep getting stronger. So, in this case, would 10% of a loaf > a whole loaf?
- Earnest - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:15 am:
Sorry, 3.57 months. Darn this “new math.”
- Joe M - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:15 am:
Shouldn’t “pension savings” be spent on reducing the pension debt?
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:16 am:
I believe this proposal is the equivalent of the Teamsters contract. It’s what is going to be used to pound his opponent over the head to show he’s “reasonable”.
The only reason Rauner does something is to further his REAL aim. He’s taking pressure off of his owned Raunerite caucus for destroying social services. This money will not be enough to even restart the social services. You will need to put in a heck of lot more money for that. No this is only to take pressure off. This is not a breakthrough on the impasse.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:51 am:
===I believe this proposal is the equivalent of the Teamsters contract. It’s what is going to be used to pound his opponent over the head to show he’s “reasonable”.===
- Honeybear -,
With respect, I hope this new development is huge in putting to onus on Democrats, and by removing the Labor-related poison pills, my hope is that 60 and 30 could be leveraged by the Administration to get many, many legislative needs through both chambers in structured roll calls. I know I can look at proposals without the Labor poison pills and see where common ground can be found without roadblocks that kill these bills before any discussion can begin. It’s a significant movement off an untenable position tgst would “never” get 60 and 30.
===He’s taking pressure off of his owned Raunerite caucus for destroying social services. This money will not be enough to even restart the social services. You will need to put in a heck of lot more money for that. No this is only to take pressure off. This is not a breakthrough on the impasse.===
Trust needs to be re… cobbled… if you will.
There needs to be a start to the governing. It’s not as much of a concession, but a recognition that the poison pills will deter agreement, especially when they aren’t close to getting 60 and 30.
It took 14 months… but…
- Norseman - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:54 am:
Dropping the poison pills is a good thing. But the approp level doesn’t cover the needs. And the alleged funding plan mainly consists of untested future year savings.
We’ll see how this all plays out. But I’m not sure we’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel or someone playing with a match.
- Union Leader - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:56 am:
I see the GOP has introduced and continues to sponsor the following bills:
HB 4214 Local Gov. Bankruptcy Neutral Evaluation Act (Sponsored by Ron Sandack, Jim Durkin, Jeanne Ives and 5 others.)
HB 4583 Labor Agreement Hearings (Sponsored by Jeanne Ives and Margo McDermed)
HB 4691 Labor Relations RIGHT TO WORK (Sponsored by Ron Sandack)
HB 5786 Public Safety Employee-Catastrophic (Sponsored by Jeanne Ives) “changes the definition of a catastrophic injury”.
HB 6095 Public Safety Manning & Injuries (Sponsored by Tom Demmer) conditions of employment will no longer include manning levels and defines “catastrophic injury” to mean no longer can perform any gainful work”
SB 2775 Pensions Funding (sponsored by Pam Althoff) reduces the target funding ration from 90% to 85% and extends the amortization period to 2055, essentially kicking the can down the road again!
SB 3105 Public Labor Arbitration (Sponsored by Pam Althoff)
SB 3276 Pensions Local Control of Benefits (sponsored by Matt Murphy)
More attempts by the GOP to bring the collapse of unions.
- Jimmy H - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:59 am:
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 11:16 am:
Honeybear, I hope you are wrong. BTW, I really appreciate your views on here.
I hope this bill is a sign R members are now saving themselves and breaking from Rauner. I hope.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 12:31 pm:
===I hope this bill is a sign R members are now saving themselves and breaking from Rauner. ===
lol
This is a Rauner bill.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 12:34 pm:
- Union Leader -
With great respect…
Any of those bills get out on 3rd Reading?
Not rhetorical, I’m asking.
===I hope this bill is a sign R members are now saving themselves and breaking from Rauner. I hope.===
This is a “Rauner-Supported” Bill… Trotted out by the Leaders.
There’s no “breaking away” going on, it’s Rauner shifting off an untenable position.
- Ghost - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 12:54 pm:
Minnesota got a good wealthy guy as their gov and we got Mr Burns /sigh.
so where is the gop balanced budget? they have a bill that will halt leg pay if ine isnt submitted, but where is the gop balanced budget? and if they want to be serious how anout now oay for gomb and the gov if the gov submits an unbalanced budget
- Union Leader - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:01 pm:
- Union Leader -
With great respect…
Any of those bills get out on 3rd Reading?
Not rhetorical, I’m asking.
OW-whom I respect so very much (no snark!)
They have all had a 1st reading at that is all, but the mere fact, the GOP filed them tells me the Turn Around Agenda is still alive and kicking.
- Annonin' - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:08 pm:
GUMBY memo confirms full GOPie revolt. BigBrain tying to avoid rout with offers of interagency loans to the Us — but sill “as needed” so Us not likely to take that brand of hush $.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:15 pm:
Look Loving God knows I want this to end. Social service agencies need the cash desperately. What I am displaying in my reaction is a profound lack of trust. PROFOUND. The perfidy catalogued by this blog alone could fill volumes. I’m always looking to see where the other hand is with Rauner. I’ll believe it when I see it. But again, here’s the thing. I am just so afraid of Rauner opening up the Labor war while others are distracted with the joy of Social services getting funded. Here’s Rauners headline “What do you mean you’re going on strike when we just got social services funded and you’re not going to be there to serve them?” It’s what we call in activism “the point of agitation”, that point which forces a moral choice. It’s also called the “cut”. Black Lives Matter is the best cut I know. It forces a moral choice. Rauner is queuing up “Serve or Strike”. That’s the box I’d but us in if I where he. The only way I can trust him is if her went back to the table with AFSCME. Until then I won’t trust him. Can anyone blame me? To quote Admiral Akbar “It’s a TRAP”!
- Juice - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:18 pm:
Senate Amendment 1 to SB 2717 is some humdinger of a comprehensive pension reform proposal. Glad GOMB thinks it’s good fiscal policy, at least enough to conclude that it will cover FY 16 spending. Any chance they have actuarial numbers to go along with that “proposal”?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:24 pm:
- Union Leader -
Thanks for your kind words, and while I see your position as a Union Leader and why it’s important to you, sometimes a “bill is just a bill”, and I would use your research to educate your Labor brethren and “vote accordingly” come November…
… but… respectfully…
… to the governing, it’s not much. I know you aren’t telling me you take Jeanne Ives seriously, are you?
You might be the first, lol.
For all of Labor, trades included, very valid point, in November. Today? They’re just bills. Some, Jeanne Ives’ bills.
Let’s try, in the governing, take the poison pill removals as “good” and see what can be leveraged with them out.
With respect.
- wordslinger - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:33 pm:
–GUMBY memo confirms full GOPie revolt. BigBrain tying to avoid rout with offers of interagency loans to the Us — but sill “as needed” so Us not likely to take that brand of hush $.–
Surprisingly, I was able to decipher that even without my Circular Firing Squad decoder ring.
Heckuva job…. by me, don’t you think Annonin?
- Sir Reel - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 1:39 pm:
This bill reminds me of something Blago would do. Raiding special funds and phantom pension savings. I would expect the “responsibility” party to come up with something better.
That said, Rauner should sign it. If he does, his subsequent bragging will ring hollow in my ears.
This is what goes for statesmanship nowadays.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 2:22 pm:
===Surprisingly, I was able to decipher that even without my Circular Firing Squad decoder ring.===
Shhh! Ix-nay on the ode-cay.
Otherwise everyone will understand the messages, lol.
- SAP - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
Any sign from the GOP that it is willing to stop squeezing the beast, or at least squeeze it less hard, is welcome news.
- walker - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 3:29 pm:
Earnest: I’m gonna need more than Word’s decoder ring to figure out your new math. lol
- Union Leader - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 3:33 pm:
Take Jeanne Ives seriously? About as much as I take the Lt. Governor Sanguinetti seriously. About as much as I take Sarah Palin as a seriously leader of the GOP. Ha, I did get a good belly laugh.
I was somewhat surprised that Rep. Sandack sponsored the “RIGHT TO WORK for LESS” bill.
I have been telling all of my union brothers and sisters and all other working men and women in Illinois to vote accordingly.
- Juvenal - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 3:52 pm:
Rich -
I think the most important thing was Radogno recognizing swift action is needed to save the social services sector.
Last month she was saying that the failure of nonprofits was a good thing, taking a Darwinian view.
- Arthur Andersen - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 5:57 pm:
47 +1
- Jimmy H - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 8:01 pm:
• - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 12:31 pm:
===I hope this bill is a sign R members are now saving themselves and breaking from Rauner. ===
lol
This is a Rauner bill.
Yes, I know that Rich. I do have some troubles with writing my thoughts. What I meant was that if Rauner thinks R members are breaking from him that may the reason he has “shifted gears” with this bill. He has shifted gears before when there was the potential for R members to break from him. Rauner’s world depends on him keeping total control of R members. As you point out in the other thread, Mushrooms sprout green shoots’, “times are changing”. Consequences of the election.
- cdog - Monday, Apr 11, 16 @ 10:05 pm:
Nuding’s a letter hints at the Administration’s paradigm shift this past week too. No poison pills still…
He starts with the obligatory insult, finishes with a whiff of the smoke that must be from the fires burning furiously out in the Gov’s agencies.
He even says the contracts are subject to appropriations, hinting at the little situation created by the 3/24 IL Sup Court ruling. He ttells them to contact their providers and tell them it’s all going to be ok.
I can only imagine how painful it must be to answer phone calls from vendors/providers in some of these agencies.