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Interesting numbers

Thursday, Oct 28, 2004

Fabrizio-McLaughlin massaged some poll numbers in an interesting way this week.

The polling firm surveyed 800 likely voters in 12 battleground states earlier this week. The respondent selection, “was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state.”

The 12 states selected were: CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI.

When they totaled everything up, President Bush edged Sen. Kerry by two-tenths of a percentage point.

However, when the firm weighted the results to reflect 2000 presidential exit polls Kerry was ahead by 3.5 points. The firm also weighted to reflect Census results and Kerry was ahead by 5.2 percent. The turnout result is the more important set of numbers, I think, because it reflects past voting patterns and not just simple demographic makeup. To the charts…

First, the “raw” trend lines since the summer. (Also notice how Ralph Nader’s support is dropping):

Now, the latest battleground poll with the turnout and Census weighting:

And here’s the chart that shows the difference between the original, raw data and the exit poll and Census modified numbers.

I talked with Tony Fabrizio this afternoon. I wondered whether the exit poll and Census numbers were for those 12 states, and he said they were. Fabrizio also agrees that the exit poll numbers are the more valid guage of what may happen next week.

Does this mean that Bush is cooked? Not according to Fabrizio. What’s really needed is a state-by-state survey with the FabMac massage. Fabrizio thinks that Bush might pick up some of the states listed above that Al Gore won four years ago, specifically, those with low numbers of minorities.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - So-Called Austin Mayor - Thursday, Oct 28, 04 @ 2:16 pm:

    And that is why the GOP is systematically trying to suppress minority voting.

    If minority voters are kept away Bush wins.
    If minority voters are represented Kerry wins.

  2. - Doug Miller - Thursday, Oct 28, 04 @ 6:47 pm:

    Oh yeah, the GOP is trying to keep the minorities away.

    You have been smoking your crack pipe with Mayor Barry again haven’t you?

  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 28, 04 @ 6:50 pm:

    I’m only leaving that post up because Doug is my brother. lol

  4. - Doug Miller - Thursday, Oct 28, 04 @ 10:32 pm:

    Go read the dude’s blog, the only thing missing is a Tinfoil Hat.

  5. - Anonymous - Friday, Oct 29, 04 @ 8:01 pm:

    Doug, what planet do you live on ? I am a fan of Rich, but because he’s your brother doesn’t mean you get a free pass here or anywhere. First no need to accuse people you disagree with of wearing tin foil hats. I checked out that guy’s blog and he seems to be a thoughtful, smart, young man.

    Second, it’s been WIDELY reported for weeks that “voter suppression” is a huge issue nationally in certain states where there are Republicans running the show.

    Just in today’s Miami Herald in fact there is an interesting piece of information about how armies of lawyers are ready to sue over attempts at “voter suppression”. There is an AP article in today’s Sun Times about Ohio’s nutty Republican Secretary of State and his determination to adhere to arcane never before-adhered to rules that end up resulting in LESS voters (especially apartment dwellers who tend to relocate more often than people who own houses and tend to be more likely to vote Democrat - and guess what - happen to be minorities).

    TO make things worse, according to today’s Miami Herald we have the lawyer who represented Bush in the 2000 Florida recount as the US ATTORNEY in charge of taking complaints of voter suppression and voting problems in Florida. What insanity and a conflict of interest ! Read below.

    So anyways, the Austin dude made a very reasonable comment based on the widespread national coverage of this issue in newspapers of repute. You on the other hand unnecessarily insulted him because you just I guess hadn’t been reading about this problem or didn’t like someone pointing out facts that disagree with your prejudices.

    Anyways, if you wanted to rebut him or anyone in the future print some facts instead of calling people names. That stuff ruins these forums and makes people not come around. I hope Austin dude sticks around.

  6. - Rich Miller - Saturday, Oct 30, 04 @ 12:56 pm:

    The Austin mayor ain’t going anywhere. Don’t be such a worry wart. I think the Democrats are freaked out that the Republicans are going to steal the election, and the Republilcans are freaked that the Democrats have registered a lot of ghosts to vote and will steal the election that way.

    My advice for all these freaked out people is to shut off your computers and go walk a precinct.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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