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Blagojevich most vulnerable?

Thursday, Dec 22, 2005

Governing Magazine’s Josh Goodman is preparing a story for February and gives us a sneak peek in his blog:

For a preview of the 2006 governors elections that I’m writing for the February issue of Governing, I’ve spoken with the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report. Here’s their analysis, as well as information I’ve gleaned from other sources […]

There’s no clear consensus as to which Democratic governor is most vulnerable next year. Sabato leaned toward Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, although he also mentioned Ted Kulongoski of Oregon and Brad Henry of Oklahoma. Blagojevich has been coping with ethics charges and could face moderate Republican Judy Baar Topinka in the general election.

Gonzales also named Blagojevich, but he said he has heard Michigan’s Jennifer Granholm, who faces a Republican willing to spend his personal fortune to unseat her, mentioned too.’s Chris Cillizza ranks Granholm as being in the most trouble, with Kulongoski second. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Jim Doyle of Wisconsin will also have credible opponents, although none of these Democrats is probably in as much trouble as Ehrlich and Schwarzenegger.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 6:05 am:

    Polls and pundits aside, unless Pat Fitzgerald comes up with the goods on the Virility King or he is caught with the proverbial dead woman or live boy, we are to be saddled with “pay to play” for four more years here in Illinois. Unfortunately, egos the size of Texas and unethical behavior are not reasons to fire a governor, even it those two things hurt more people in the state than his programs help others. There is a lack of conscience here along with thick skin that nothing can penetrate.

    Interestingly, our illustrious governor’s antics are common knowledge in other states, according to my connections. They have made fun of him on radio in Florida. But I’ve never heard of the problems of the troublesome governors in the other states mentioned in your article. I guess that makes us voters in Illinois look either gullable or ignorant. We should have looked deeper, folks.

  2. - Rele Tahrd - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 6:38 am:

    I can’t believe I’m typing this because it may read as if I have some sort of positive feeling about Blah-Blah, but if you quote enough experts they will end up with a listing all the governors. The only experts are me, Rich and a couple of the rest of you.

    Now that my Christmas/holiday/seasonal non-slanderous thought has come and gone in one paragraph, I know who I think is the most vulnerable, but I am not from Cook or a collar county and I hear how people are truly disgusted with this guy. I’ve heard him trashed in other states, too. I think the powers in those states want him to look ridiculous to pre-empt serious discussion of any of his myriad future-mortaging-for-today’s-personal-political-benefit schemes.

    Like: Spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to stage dozens of events in an upcoming travelling Rx show, timed coincidentally during a political campaign, telling senior citizens to break the law is not what the greatest generation or any Illinois citizen really needs from the governor.


  3. - Paul Powell - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 8:14 am:

    This whole administration is phony. At a downstate mall two weekends ago the guv’s people were promoting AllKids or whatever that program is called. A local television crew was to shoot some footage for their news. David Phelps IDOT expert appears shortly before TV, waits on TV, signs up a family while the cameras roll and as soon as the shoot is over, he leaves. And you think people aren’t observant. I’m telling you this bunch from top to bottom comes across as phony. When the families involved tell these kinds of tales to their families and friends and they pass them on as they did to me it snowballs and shows the depths of how really pathetic they all are. Visiting the Veteran’s Home this week in Marion was interesting. The guv’s people should visit there and not say who they work for to get a good feel for their mood about him. Sadly, they don’t really want to know. It is not good!

  4. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 9:34 am:

    Ehrich, Henry and Schwarzenegger are fish out of water. Their states naturally do not elect governors in their party, even if they do a great job in office. This is the lead reason why Romney didn’t run in his state. Each of them have done a good job in office, have taken strong stands on issues, and have shown that they are not bipartisan hybrids. They could win if they convince voters that they don’t agree with them, but know better to lead their states - a tough sell.

    Granholm and Blagojevich have self inflicted problems. Both looked promising upon inauguration, but failed to mature.

    Granholm is ripe for picking off, but has no real challenger to take advantage. Blagojevich is in more trouble if JBT wins the primary, because she is a veteran campaigner well known and liked by a majority of voters.

    Rendell and Doyle are at the point Blagojevich was in April 2005, so they have a little more time to pull off a re-election win. Wisconsin has been trending Republican for a decade, so Doyle has to be in top shape. Rendell is just sloppy, but Pennsylvania still leans Democratic enough for his re-election. With a weak Senate incumbant on the ballot, (Santorum), Rendell is better positioned to catch residual benefits from this failing Congressman.

    Merry Christmas!

  5. - Ray Coleman - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 11:32 am:

    I am encouraged by the comments posted on this blog. Those of us who want good government are encouraged to have a sense that the public is being properly informed about where a candidate really stands on the issues and not be sucked in by the rhetoric and grandstanding. Bottom line Blagojevich does not deserve a second term. I am disapointed that Eisendrath got in the race so late, but he serves a good purpose, and that is to continue to expose Blagojevich as the phony he truly is.

  6. - Goodbye Napoleon - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 3:58 pm:

    Calizza is great on handicapping congressional races, but doesn’t know the states as well. This governor and next year’s race is totally uncharacteristic for this state.

  7. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 8:01 pm:

    These people are as dumb as the prognosticators who said the Sox would finish third in the AL Central last season or that the Bears were among the worst teams in the NFL. Real people in Illinois love Rod Blagojevich and they gladly pay higher taxes because they trust Mr. Blagojevich’s wisdom. The polls are flawed because they can’t get ahold of the people working 2 jobs to make ends meet, who are the people who will benefit from AllKids and who will propel Mr. Blagojevich to a decisive win in 2006. You people are worse than Chuck Goudie, who is so misleading and is even more biased than Fox News Channel. You will all be eating crow next November.

  8. - 6 Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Dec 22, 05 @ 9:42 pm:

    Anon 8:01-

    Will all the people working the early morning shift at Burger King and the afternoon shift at Wal-Mart find enough time on election day to get to the voting booth? Now THAT is the question!

  9. - WAY DOWNSTATE - Friday, Dec 23, 05 @ 7:16 am:

    Has anyone heard that Blago’s guys are bringing in a out-of-state firm at 430 million to study and change work schedules at IDOC?Is it the holidays and they hope no one will notice?

  10. - girl friday - Friday, Dec 23, 05 @ 7:42 am:

    That’s very interesting ‘Way Downstate – 7:16’. I just ran across an old memo from former Director of Highways Vic Modeer (dated February 9, 2004) that states “The Governor has hired the McKinney Consultant Group to review IDOT to save money. They get 10% of all savings.” I wonder if the firm that was hired to “study and change work schedules at IDOC” also receives a percentage of what they save.

  11. - roy slade - Friday, Dec 23, 05 @ 8:30 am:

    Anon 8:01: Down in Southern Illinois- we shoot crows- using kitty cats like yourself for bait.

    Only those people who were hired to work in state government (without any real qualifications and skills) will vote for blago- the rest are laughing and concerned at your problems with lack of trust, ethical issues, and debt problems.

    It’s not too late to stop drinking the coolaide- however I expect that you will go down with the boat- grasping for a life line next December in a coded state job.

    Good luck- you had three years to “change government”- and I am sure there will be people in Springfield “pointing the fingers” at the holdovers who produced nothing, did nothing, and were grossly overpaid to do so for the past three years.

  12. - WAY DOWNSTATE - Friday, Dec 23, 05 @ 8:52 am:


  13. - BOBIO - Wednesday, Dec 28, 05 @ 2:58 pm:

    Gov Blago is the silliest looking most disingenuous politician I have seen. He needs to lose an election to get a dose of reality so that when he runs again he can actually become a real person instead of the phony character he has evolved into.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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