40 Comments - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:01 pm: First of all we know that the 95 thousand jobs is a lie.After an independent factual study was done it is more like 39 thousand jobs.As far as an assult weapons ban nationwide it does not have much support but that shows how much our Gov. is out of touch with current events.Hey gov. pay the bills,bring in factories,strenhten and build on our state agencies. - Papa Legba - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:10 pm: I wonder if his anti-gun ad will air downstate? I think it is a bit early to start. People will tire of old “weasely eyes” bleating and tune him out long before labor day. - Eric the Red - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:12 pm: This is clearly the first salvo in what will no doubt be a multi-part series subtitled (with good reason), “Judy Baar Topinka is Too Wacky to Be Governor” followed by “Judy Baar Topinka is Pot Calling the Kettle Black in Criticizing Anyone for Political-Financial Hanky-Panky” and the Governor has from now through the summer to run it. Pending the words “indictment” and “Blagojevich” occurring in the same sentence in the MSM - not at all out of the question - there will be four more years of hearing about Patti not wanting to live in Springfield. After that, assuming he finishes out his second term, at least four years of Governor Madigan. Face it, pending the arrival of their own Obama - and we ain’t seen her/him yet campers - the IRP is done-ski for the foreseeable future. Strictly spectators for a decade or more. Topinka? Birkett? Oberweis? Keyes? Ryan? Ryan? Ryan? (George, Jim and Jack) Compromised enough that even Republicans won’t vote for them. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:28 pm: Downstate — I don’t know what 95,000 jobs you’re refering to, but I do know that according to the Bush Administration, Illinois has added 84,700 new PRIVATE sector jobs over the last three years. See for yourself here. I think Rod’s strategy is a smart one. He’s solidifying his base. He’ll be on a different message by midsummer probably, but 40% of Illinois voters consider themselves Democrats and George Bush has an 8% aproval rating with Democrats. EIGHT percent. Holy Cow. What’s great is that Bush still has an extremely high approval rating among Illinois Republicans (all 24% of the vote), so the more Topinka tries to run away from Bush, as she did in that cutsy George Will piece, the more she ticks them off. - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:47 pm: Hey YDD all this good and wonderfull crap he is spouting doesn’t seem to be doing any good.He can’t even carry his buddies Costello’s district and that is a Democratic stronghold.Looks like Costello is in trouble to for hanging to close to Blago..You people just don’t get it to much red ink leaves stains on your hands.Now before you Blago-maniacs start he is in charge and the buck stops at the top. - Bubs - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:49 pm: Blago’s a bit off target, in that Bush’s low ratings do not stem from either tax cuts or assault weapons. - bored now - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 2:56 pm: Tying JBT to W is a sound idea. Doing it this early? I just don’t know. the effectiveness of this timing (april) was demonstrated in 1996, when clinton took dole out with early advertising. his campaign never recovered. one reason you’d expect it to be effective is because it will not only demoralize the topinka campaign, and make swing voters think twice about supporting her, but may depress her ability to raise money. Blago’s a bit off target, in that Bush’s low ratings do not stem from either tax cuts or assault weapons. i don’t think it matters why bush’s approval ratings are low, only that topinka can be tied to bush. - Pat C (soon to be me again) - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:22 pm: bored now Right on target. It worked for Clinton, and Rod is NOTHING but not disciplined in following that game plan. The point about suppressing her fund raising is especially pertinet. I made this point in the other “guv going negative” thread. Give Rod credit. He keeps his base happy, unlike Bush and repubs that PO theirs ona regular basis. Will JBT talk about how “all kids” is really “All illegal alien kids”? I doubt it. Hard for her to talk ethics with the polka video going around. Taxes? Rod said he wouldn’t raise them, and he didn’t. So what DOES she say? - Raging RINO - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:25 pm: Wow, YDD is in favor of Rod’s approach? Stop the presses!! - scoot - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:28 pm: Rod has NO credibility with the voters. It’s time for a change. Get someone who takes the job as Governor serious, will work in Springfield, and get things done. By the way….nothing has changed on the hate crimes commission, right? - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:29 pm: He has to play this to Bush or anything else because if it lands here and the real issues are discussed he has a lot of problems.As far as ALL KIDS we don’t even know if it works.Were is his Video ban how about the junk food ban and hey how are we going to pay off this massive debt we have or get our bond rating lifted.See he doesn’t want to talk real issues. - Sound Reasoning - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:38 pm: The Topinka campaign can not let Blago’s message go unanswered. They have to hit right back at him in order to neutralize the Blago campaign’s distortion and half-truth commercials. If Blago tries painting Topinka as tied to corruption she can easily respond right back showing how the Governor himself is up to his neck in it with his administration. Then it will be up to the electorate to decide if they beleive the commercials and who is the lessor of two evils. This is what we get when negative campaigning is so widespread. All we hear is how bad the other candidate is instead of finding out truthfully what one will do for our state. In this day and age of television the governor can get a commercial or sound bite to portray himself in a manner that is totally at odds with how he is professionally and if the electorate believes it instead of thinking for themselves then he will get re-elected. Maybe in reality Blago should win then he will have to answer for the mess he’s getting this state in. He can’t keep putting off paying the state’s bills forever. Sooner or later the state’s finances will crumble and then its cut programs or raise tax, simple economics. - On my Blackberry at a beer garden - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:42 pm: YDD, you gotta remember one thing. That 24% who support Bush probably didn’t vote for Judy in the primary. - grand old partisan - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:52 pm: Papa Legba has a good point. Is Blagojevich really doing to run the NRA spot downstate? I hope he does, but even I give him and his people more credit than that. Chances are they’ll do something similar to what Kaine did in VA. - Little Egypt - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 3:53 pm: I was sick & tired of hearing the Blago primary ads and now 7 months before the general we are being bombarded with his crap. Rich, I’m afraid my mute button simply will not hold up to the kind of abuse I’m giving it lately. - Papa Legba - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:16 pm: Comparing Clinton vs. Dole is not quite the same as Blago vs. JBT. Clinton was a fresh face, new to the national scene, had no baggage and is charismatic. Dole had no chance what so ever in that race. He needed Lenin’s make up artists to not look like he was Clintons grandfather. There was no race after April 1992. It was over after the primary. While JBT may have some warts, Blago’s issues are just as well know and maybe more so with the electorate. He has egg on his face, not many people believe a word he says - no credibilty and so much baggage he needs his 20 car police escorts just to carry it all. Now that the Feds are moving Blago into their crosshairs… Well, I guess it will be a long loud summer. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:19 pm: PL, that article is about the ‘96 race. Time to recalibrate your comments. - Papa Legba - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:27 pm: Ooops. Sorry, I guess Bush the older in 1992 was so boring I forgot him too. Dole was the dynamic figure from the 1996 election. Thx, for the correction Rich . - bored now - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:29 pm: The Topinka campaign can not let Blago’s message go unanswered. They have to hit right back at him in order to neutralize the Blago campaign’s distortion and half-truth commercials. that is certainly one lesson from ‘96. but you’re missing the other half. clinton’s attacks not only drove dole’s negatives through the roof, but virtually dried up contributions, too. dole limped to federal funding. outside of the dole loyalists, potential donors saw the dole appeal as throwing good money after bad. topinka can certainly rely on her loyalist base to help her weather the ad storm, but the question is whether she can raise as much now, especially from new donors. if nothing else, this tactic will neutralize the rga’s announcement (they weren’t really going to throw a lot of money at illinois anyway). it is clear that the rga expected the new money to come from within illinois. but i could be wrong — and we’ll know if karl rove shows up in the next couple of weeks. While JBT may have some warts, Blago’s issues are just as well know and maybe more so with the electorate. outside of his failure to move to springfield, i’d be shocked if voters really knew “Blago’s issues.” i suspect this is a little bit of wishful thinking. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:34 pm: Bored, you should remember a few things: History never repeats itself. Money doesn’t buy elections. Negative ads don’t always work. The guv has spent something like $4 million since February and he’s still behind JBT in three straight polls. Right after the ‘02 primary, he was ahead of Jim Ryan by something like 18 points. But, yeah, I think you’re right that they’re trying to put her away early to dry up her money. It’s a big gamble, because those neg ads are gonna drive his negs up too. Should be fun to watch, though. Also, if voters didn’t know anything about his negative “issues” then he’d be doing a whole lot better in the polls right now. Don’t kid yourself. They know plenty. - Bob - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 4:55 pm: Rich Miller is correct, this is way to early to call. They want to put JBT away before she can gain momentum. If he is the clear front runner in the poles they hope Meeks won’t run and if he does it won’t matter. It may be logical thinking on Blago’s part but there are so many ways of attacking him with negative ads it will probably be a wash. This race is going to be close and the US attorney may have a say at the end. - No political genius - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 5:27 pm: like my handle says, I’m no genius about this political stuff. I can read a Federal court docket, though. It seems that the case of US. v. Stuart Levine (Health Facilities branch) was continued again at the request of the government until June. That trial timing, with interesting questions like “how did you get re-appointed, Mr. Levine” and the like could more than negate all those silly advertisements. - Dem Voting R - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 5:37 pm: Sound reasoning, while being a common phrase, also remains the best commentor here on this blog. Thanks for the ‘common sense.’ - Gregor - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 6:38 pm: So, Blago wants to run his campaign for Governor against a lame duck second-term unpopular President? Smart, in that it makes it harder to get Bush’s money flowing openly to Judy. Dumb on the issues, though. Hard to say which way that equation tips. As to Rod’s money and his saturation bombing of negative and distorting ads… I think Judy’s folks should soon be getting a boost from 527’s running their own “truth squad” spots, andswering Rod charge for charge, and Judy should start those ten debates to benefit from the free media attention they bring. 2 a month could be a good innoculation against Rod building up a false media perception. I have every confidence that, free from handlers and being herself, she can take him one on one on his track record, issue for issue, in any debate. Once you strip his catch phrases and double-talk from him, the guy can’t really defend himself all that well. His track record is actually pitiful, he just relies on spinning it to look better than it is. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:01 pm: Gregor….just who are these 527’s that are going to start running these ads? Do you really think Karl Rove is coming to Illinois to bail Topinka out, or do you think the RNC is trying to figure out just how the hell they are going to hold on to Congress, California, Texas, Florida and New York? Where is the support going to come from in Illinois? The Chamber? You think they want Judy to raise their taxes? Because the money sure ain’t coming from the Right. The only group that Topinka could bank on to support her was the banks, and now they have no reason to support her. - Rick G - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:27 pm: Just for the record, I saw the “rolling pin” ad twice this afternoon on broadcast tv in my home town of Carbondale. So yup, it’s running. I thought they were effective, but it won’t make me change my vote in this race. If I were advising JBT, I’d suggest she put out ads that say, “Here’s what I’m thinking. I’m thinking we can’t leave millions of dollars in debt to our children. I’m thinking we need to pay for projects already in place before we create new, expensive ones. I’m thinking….” Well, you get the idea. Of course, I also would have had Topinka in Springfield every day the legislature is in session. I’d have paid 50 bucks and rented a tent, put it right outside the Capitol, and sent out a press release saying “I’m right here. I’m ready to work with the legislature, and with the leaders, to work out a budget. Our sitting Governor can’t be bothered, but here I am ready to get the business of the state done.” Cheap publicity. Best kind. But then, what do I know? - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:28 pm: 527s? Why? Illinois has unlimited contributions and expenditures for candidates and PACs. 527s are pointless under the campaign finance rules in the State other than for federal elections. You might get a PAC or something to run critical commercials of Blagojevich, but frankly, the usual suspects to independently support a Republican statewide canidate)(Family Taxpayers Network) appear happy to keep attacking her. Her problem is that while the Roesers might not be that influential for the total number of votes, she’s getting squeezed from both sides. All of Rich’s points are very good and may yet come to be–Blagojevich has poor polling numbers and people certainly distrust him, but she has to solidify her base and appeal to moderates while being attacked from both sides on wedge issues. Indictments or the such would obviously change the calculus and quickly, but she has some very serious challenges to navigate. - reform - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:40 pm: I was just watching “Countdown” and a reporter had looked into U.S. Attorney Fitzgerald’s pattern on the use of “public official A” and public official B” in indictments. The story was about the “Plume” case and concerned Rove, but the reporter had supposedly checked the U.S. Attorney’s history and said that without exception “public official A” and “B” always end up being indicted themselves. If this is true and holds true where would that leave us in Illinois with the rash of investigations? Is not Blago the suspected “A” in one of the investigations? Any other A and B’s? - reform - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:43 pm: Rich - you raised the question of Blago’s involvement with Rostinkowski’s last campaign. I volunteered for Mell’s organization that year in the primary and was handing out fliers on election day doing doing GOTV for Rosti. Blago and Mell were basically one in the same at that point. - JohnR - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:50 pm: Rich, FYI - Not to rustle the bushes here… but I think one can see the logic in both being opposed to an issue and voting against a law that would prohibit citizens from being able to vote on the issue. I don’t think your argument makes the case. But, it is a good question to look at. Maybe there is some other evidence there. - Mike Flannery's "what?" - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 7:58 pm: The governor doesn’t realize how out of touch he is south of I80. He’s already won Chicago. I know, you know, the only people that don’t know it are Chicago. So, he is taking a Chicago issue and trying to make it a state-wide issue. He is wrong, and I believe this won’t help him at all. But I have been wrong before… once… - Old Elephant - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 9:03 pm: Let’s see — Topinka thinks: Raising the minimum wage in Illinois above that of California, New York, Florida, Texas, Michigan and every one of our surrounding states might not be a good way to help small businesses expand and grow in Illinois; Criminalizing a small group of collectors and banning guns that would be used at the southern Illinois sport shooting complex might be overly broad and not particularly effective in reducing crime; The federal tax cuts which fueled the economic recovery (which by the way Illinois didn’t benefit from because Blagojevich instituted massive new business taxes which offset the positive benefits here) were a good idea. Sounds to me like the Blagojevich campaign is doing a good job of helping Topinka win back her base. - Save a Horse Ride a Harley - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 9:39 pm: Ask the Blago campaign about Robin Black, ex IDOT chief of staff. Ask them why were so many of her orders faxed from Emil Jones offices (her husband is his chief of staff).Ask the Blago campaign why do CMS employees work on Mr. Tusk’s home PC/network on state time. Ask the Blago in a debate about the Robert Millette and the power washing fiasco at IDOT. Ask the Blago campaign to explain why they cannot get anything past William Holland’s team of auditors. Ask Blago why one of his campaign contributors, the general contractor on the Milan Beltway, pulled a gun on an assistant resident engineer when he questioned the way they were building the road. All I know is the FREAKIN BIG INDIANS know all of this and they are coming soon to ELVISLAND! - Ethel - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 9:48 pm: Interesting that all Agency Directors are required to make 5 appearances a month promoting the governor - that’s about one quarter of their time. At a minium of $100,000 salary per year - that’s a lot of free camapigning. If you’ve ever heard one of the speeches given at these events, the greatness of the current governor is touted so many times in 5 - 10 minutes it it is enough to make one ill. And it is not only the director’s time - but speechwriters, drivers, Chief of Staff, whatever assistants are necessary, agency spokesperson………….. That’s lots of campaigning paid for by the taxpayers. - Dozer - Thursday, Apr 20, 06 @ 11:04 pm: Ethel, Barry Marim and the IDOT director spend more time on the road than a AA baseball team. In IDOT’s case, maybe that’s a good thing, as he’s less involved in interfering with the workers while he’s stumping for blago. But any human services agenency has more than enough real work for one guy to watch over, and Barry has no excuse to shirk his 9-5 job to recite Blago’s praises to small groups and TV cameras daily. - These are our choices? - Friday, Apr 21, 06 @ 12:52 am: Hey Rich… noticed this at the bottom of the Topinka Watch site: “A copy of our report, filed with the State Board of Elections and the Cook County Clerk is (or will be) available for purchase from the State Board of Elections, Springfield, Illinois and from the Cook County Clerk, 118 North Clark, Chicago, Illinois.” What is up with that? What entity makes money of such a purchase? - bored now - Friday, Apr 21, 06 @ 7:23 am: rich, i think your comment about history repeating itself infers this as a much broader conclusion than i would have drawn. this was a predictable tactic on the governor’s part, one that has proven successful in the past. just because we all see a course of action that could neutralize it does not mean that topinka can do so. whether voters know the issues, my experience doing issues canvassing in suburban cook and the collar counties strongly suggests otherwise. i would agree that some voters have a negative impression of the governor, apparently more so downstate — but that doesn’t mean they know the issues or even why they disapprove. at this point, i’d say that they’ve taken their impressions, good or bad, from cues. finally, on electoral chances, i’m a realist. i look at the fundamentals (fund-raising, organization, and messaging). i just don’t see where topinka is competitive — yet. the gop in illinois is the most demoralized, disfunctional political party i’ve ever seen, and it doesn’t seem to me that topinka has any organization separate from the party worth speaking of. there is no doubt that blagojevich is vulnerable, but vulnerability requires exploitation to be meaningful. until topinka shows the ability to actually take advantage of the governor’s vulnerability, it’s hard to bet against him. rod’s innoculation strategy seems sound, in this case… - Wumpus - Friday, Apr 21, 06 @ 12:41 pm: All Judy needs to do is ask Public Offical A why IL is lagging in employment data. - ZC - Friday, Apr 21, 06 @ 8:18 pm: I think the best analogy here is Bush-Kerry 2004. Bush knew that he couldn’t get a majority of the American public to vote _for_ him, but he could win a majority if he could create a solid anti-Kerry sentiment. So he went negative early and hard, and defined Kerry as a flip-flopper and a soft-on-defense liberal. Blago’s already shifting negative on Judy. If enough Democrats decide that Judy is too far from their values in this state, it frankly doesn’t matter much what the Republicans think or do. The problem is that the Illinois electorate knows Judy, and a lot of Dems want very much to like her. She’s the “good Republican” they hold up as a comparison to all the “bad Republicans” they don’t. She’ll be much, much harder to redefine than the relatively unknown Kerry was. So Blago’s strategy seems basically right. This election has to be about how Judy is unacceptable; people’s opinions about Rod aren’t going to shift that much. When it comes to campaigning, Blago’s folks know what they are doing. - Dozer - Saturday, Apr 22, 06 @ 9:41 pm: hey dozer — go get your own handel. the ads were running down state this weekend. Great, talk abtu a gun ban during hunting season. The guys at the bar just laughed and a couple of corrections guys said they were voting for Judy. Not a single person said they were voting for blago, and all the guys turkey hunting had nothing good to say about the guy. for what it’s worth. The real Dozer Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.