In the race for Illinois Governor, Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka now leads Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 44% to 38%. In March, Topinka led 43% to 41%.
Topinka has now led in three of the four polls we have conducted of the race, albeit modestly for the most part. Our three-poll rolling average continues to show a tight race, with Topinka barely ahead 41%-40%. However, over the course of those three surveys, Topinka has gained ground each time.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the contest was conducted April 18, a day after voters learned of a former Republican Governor’s conviction on corruption charges. Blagojevich’s administration is also being investigated for corruption, which the Topinka campaign has been eager to point out.
The Blagojevich campaign, for its part, has stressed Topinka’s past service under the convicted governor, from whom she has sought to distance herself.
How the charges and counter-charges will play out in the minds of voters will be reflected in coming polls, but Governor Blagojevich is clearly in a vulnerable position for an incumbent. He has yet to rise above 42% support, let alone 50%, when pitted against Topinka, and enjoys only 64% support from fellow Democrats.
Only 43% of likely voters view the incumbent favorably; 57% disapprove. Topinka is viewed favorably by 58%, unfavorably by 39%.
However, opinions on both candidates are fairly soft. Just 17% have a “very favorable” opinion of Topinka while 15% have a “very unfavorable” opinion.”
For the Governor, 14% have a “very favorable” opinion and 29% hold a “very unfavorable” opinion.
Sixty percent (60%) of Illinois voters say tax increases hurt the economy; 19% say they help. Fifty-four percent (54%) say tax cuts help the economy, while 25% say they hurt it.
Sixty-five percent (65%) of likely voters agree that controlling the border and enforcing current law should have priority over further reform. Fifty-eight percent (58%) say our national policy goal should be to welcome immigrants generally, except for criminals and those who pose a security threat or would try to live off welfare.
Forty-nine percent (49%) disagree that all illegal aliens in the country should be forced to leave. Fifty-two percent (52%) disagree that the child of an illegal alien should automatically become a citizen of the U.S.
- Rick - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 1:34 pm:
This is still a steep hill to climb, but this is encouraging despite the nere do wells actively trying to kill Judy from within the GOP.
Gotta love the FTN questioner who asks, “Can Judy top Keyes?”
- anon - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 1:37 pm:
Was this before or after Blago’s campaign started running those stupid ads against Judy?
The Governor would be better off running the polka ads with Judy and George. That’s enterainment and what’s the voters want early from attack ads.
- Bubs - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 1:47 pm:
The Blagojevich people can no longer call these polls mere abberations. Not after four in a row.
Topinka is leading. Not by much, and it is only April, but she is leading.
Given the recent Blago giveaways; the fact that JBT is only 30 days out from an ugly primary; and the constant stream of slime from the “JackAsses of Carpentersville,” (more simply known as the “JackAsses”) that is quite a statement in her favor.
- Establishment Republican - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 1:48 pm:
At this point in 2002, Blagojevich was leading Jim Ryan by 18 points and he wound up winning by, what was it exactly, seven points?
So, Blagojevich is clearly finding himself in an unusual position as compared to four years ago, and this poll here does not even include Meeks.
- ChicagoCynic - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:00 pm:
What Rod needs to do now is create a different view of Judy among middle-of-the-road Illinois voters. Right now she is viewed generally warmly as a moderate Republican and kind of fun quirky person, kind of like your wacky aunt you love to see once a year. That’s why she’s leading these very early polls. People like her and hate Rod. Hell, if the question is who is more likable, that’s a no-brainer. She’s way more fun.
But with these ads, Rod is going to move the needle and make people question whether she’s really that moderate, lovable lady, If he can paint Judy as a George Bush/George Ryan loving conservative that’s only out to protect the rich and is out of touch with the mainstream Illinois voter, she’s going to have a big problem.
Aside from that, Rod is probably the most disciplined campaigner running against one of the least disciplined campaigners. It makes it a lot of fun to watch her. But it drive her staff to distraction and makes for some ridiculously easy negative spots (such as the rolling pin spot) with a tagline that will resonate (What is she thinking) and remind you that your lovable aunt is also a bit nuts (not that I think JBT is nuts, she’s just wacky).
Personally I think they’re pretty darned effective spots and these numbers will turn around, but only time will tell.
- ChicagoCynic - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:03 pm:
Oh, and of course the Ryan verdict won’t help.
- Establishment Republican - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:08 pm:
This Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the Ryan verdict.
One would think that if there was an anti-Topinka backlash associated with the verdict, it would have been the most noticeable right afterwards, and as we can see, that does not appear to have been the case, at least in this poll.
As for the Blago attack ads on Topinka, my take is that they increase her favorability with conservatives.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:10 pm:
Establishment Republican, it usually takes a few to several days for big stories like this to “sink in” with voters. That’s another good reason for the guv to start his negative ads. They’ll be running while voters are giving all this another thought.
- Barnaby - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:31 pm:
Rich, this talk of the IL Legislature impeaching Bush is all hot air.
1.Do the Democrats want to anger Speaker Denny Haesert?
2. Mayor Daley is friends with the President.
3. Melissa Bean and Tammy Duckworth do not want an angered GOP base to be irate about this insult to a President in War Time.
4. Would The Dick Durbin US troop comments be Rehashed, and would Barak Obama lose his middleground with the GOP?
It will never happen.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:33 pm:
Let’s stay on-topic here, please.
- DOWNSTATE - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:38 pm:
A lot of people have already made up their mind and are doing a pretty good job of convincing their neighbor.Right now no one really wants to hear this bunch toot their own horn on things like stem cell and All Kids because both are a unknown as how they are going to work but we do know how it works when we fill our tank.Or state agencies falling apart because of being under funded or under staffed why he wants to give out more costly free programs to get re-elected.The real people see the real truth.I can see Blago now on his roof playing his fiddle while Illinois burns.
- DOWNSTATE - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:47 pm:
Add something I just heard on the local news cast now they are raiding some of the special funds for veterans and motorcycle education.More of their trying to hide the fact that we are in some deep debt and absolute denial.
- Bluefish - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:48 pm:
Blago seems to be suffering from political memory loss again. Maybe JBT should use the tagline “What was he smoking?”
- Establishment Republican - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:50 pm:
Mr. Miller, you don’t think it is more likely to have been an immediate or overnight anti-GOP knee jerk reaction to the Ryan verdicts immediately afterwards?
My personal view is that everybody in the state who would have cared about the matter, personally convicted George Ryan in their own minds a long time ago, and it is hard to see how people would only develop some sort of anger against George Ryan or his party after the verdicts were handed down.
The most likely result of the verdict and the early Blago attack ads is just going to be an attitude of disillusionment with both parties and a lower turnout in November.
- Mike Flannery's - Monday, Apr 24, 06 @ 2:57 pm:
“Sixty percent (60%) of Illinois voters say tax increases hurt the economy; 19% say they help. Fifty-four percent (54%) say tax cuts help the economy, while 25% say they hurt it.”
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa… whoa. Tax increases help the economy? Tax cuts hurt the economy? Uhgg, Why would people think this. It goes against all economic theory… except maybe marxism. I find it hard to believe that many people believe that. Tax cuts promote spending and help small businesses. Tax increases take money out of the private sector and in to the bureaucracy, changing the natural flow of money from small businesses. Walmart can definately survive tax increases, but the A&P can’t.
This is a very interesting poll. It really does look like Blago is in trouble. Only time will tell, but for now, Topinka is in the driver’s seat. (I can’t wait for YDDs next post…)
- Bob - Tuesday, Apr 25, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
I predict that voters will associate the Ryan verdict with Blago and not JBT. Try as I might when I think of corruption Ryan = Blago and I am a dem.
- Anonymous 37 - Tuesday, Apr 25, 06 @ 6:42 pm:
As much as I’d like to see Blago lose, I don’t take much comfort in these early polls. The guy’s got millions to spend on negative attack ads, and you know there are going to be tons of them come fall. As much as I wish all voters would actually research their gubernatorial candidates and where they stand on the issues, let’s face it — many base their votes by what they see in a 30-second ad.