Congressional roundup
Thursday, Jun 12, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As you know by now, Congresscritter Jesse Jackson, Jr. has been undermining fellow Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign by linking her to Tony Rezko on the Peotone Airport deal…
Jackson said on WLS-890 AM’s “Don Wade and Roma” morning show that two years ago Rezko pitched him a plan to compose a new airport board of appointed, instead of elected, officials. Jackson said he said no to the plan, but that a similar proposal later found its way into Halvorson’s bill.
The proposal was seen as a boon to Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), to whom Rezko was a close adviser.
Asked whether he knew if Rezko met with Halvorson, Jackson said: “I don’t have the answer to that. But the way the governor functions, not always does the left hand know completely what the right hand is doing.
* But Larry has been all over this story and believes Jackson has been getting a free pass from the media. The ArchPundit points to a Jackson statement which clearly shows that the Democrat offered Blagojevich and by extension his buddy Rezko four appointments to Jackson’s Abraham Lincoln National Airport board…
“ALNAC has agreed to give the governor four appointments on its nine-member board. That seems fair and equitable.”
* Halvorson is doing herself no favors by not commenting on this story, but she did issue a press release yesterday…
“I am an independent fighter for the people I represent and I won’t let Chicago politicians tell us what to do in the 11th Congressional District.
“I sponsored the Will County Airport Authority bill on behalf of Will County Labor, Business and Government. This bill has bipartisan support from the legislators in Will County because this third airport bill is about local control and not handing over an airport in Will County over to bigwigs from Chicago. Our plan gives one appointment to the Governor, and ALNAC’s plan ultimately gives five.
“This issue is too important for petty politics, and shame on anyone for suggesting ties to convicted felon Rezko–someone whom I have never even met.”
* Meanwhile, the Jim Oberweis image rehabilitation tour continues with an interview at a local T.G.I. Friday’s…
“We’re doing a lot of things,” [Oberweis] said. “We’re trying to make sure we have a softer side.”
Oberweis said he plans to avoid negative campaigning in November’s General Election against Foster, even if he is attacked first.
“I’ve spent the last month or two traveling around the district, asking people how to run a better campaign,” he said. “A lot of people’s suggestions are that it be a positive campaign and I’ve heard that message.”
Oberweis said the Republican primary and campaigning against Foster in the special election was too negative.
In hindsight, Oberweis said, he wouldn’t have gone negative, and plans to stick to issues the rest of this year.
Those issues include a halt to government spending more than it can afford, securing the country’s borders, and decreasing America’s dependence on foreign oil.
* Congresscritter Mark Kirk’s campaign has released a poll that shows him with a huge lead over his Democratic rival Dan Seals. Up front warning, however, there are just 300 respondents in this poll, so its accuracy is in question. The pollster is solid, though. The margin of error is +/- 5.6%. You can download the executive summary by clicking here. Excerpts…
With approximately five months until the November elections, Congressman Mark Kirk maintains a commanding lead over Dan Seals in the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. Kirk leads Seals 53% to 32%, a 21-point lead in the head-to-head. With this lead, Kirk has surpassed the benchmark 50% on the ballot that a strong incumbent should reach.
Kirk’s lead was 50-29 in March. 15 percent are now undecided, compared to 22 percent in March. The memo points out that the DCCC has spent a bunch of money so far to little avail.
* More…
Mark Kirk maintains a very strong favorable rating of 67% favorable to 16% unfavorable. Again, a strong incumbent should have a avorable rating over 50%. Mark Kirk well exceeds this benchmark, as more than two-thirds of the voters have a favorable opinion of him. Conversely, Dan Seals maintains a lower favorable rating of 39% and a 16% unfavorable rating. Seals’ name identification rating is especially low considering he has been campaigning ever since his first loss to Mark Kirk in 2006. Seals is in danger of becoming the re-run losing candidate.
* This is perhaps the most important result…
Independents and ticket-splitters who vote the person, not the party, are deciding the race. Again, how would Barack Obama as the Democratic presidential nominee affect Congressman Mark Kirk? In a district that is 33% Republican and 35% Democrat, the answer to this question will be decided by “independents” and “ticket-splitters”.
Currently, these likely Obama voters are breaking for Kirk by a 2-1 margin and have a significantly high favorable opinion of Mark Kirk. [emphasis added]
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:39 am:
Seals has been disappointing — the gas station bribe stunt, the rote echoing of Dem talking points. If I were him I’d shift gears and just claim he’d bring in more pork with a Dem House and attack Kirk as someone who hasn’t assumed any leadership or visibility nationally in a decade - he just wants to stay under the radar and keep his job.
- Ghost - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:39 am:
Oberweiss has a big problem with trying to reform his image now. He has already spent millions creating the image nobody likes, and it is familiar to all. It is probably too little to late. He needed to do this a long time ago. There is nothing left for him to milk his image into a better light, he instead has to try and rewrite history and hope nobody rembers the past.
- LakeCountyConservative - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:47 am:
Rep. Kirk is more liberal than many Democrats. He’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage, pro-spending increases, and anti-Iraq surge. Last year, the Illinois Minutemen announced that they “denounced” him. In 2007, I emailed Kirk three times, and I asked why he’s a Republican. I didn’t receive a response. I emailed an aide of his, Eric Elk, and I asked him why Kirk is a Republican. I didn’t receive a response.
- The Doc - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:52 am:
Kirk’s definitely a RINO, which sits well with his constituency. Seals has self-imploded, failing to take advantage of the tailwind. The gas station stunt and subsequent comments about “adults” needed in Washington are like oil and water. “Professor” Seals, have a nice day…
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:57 am:
===Rep. Kirk is more liberal than many Democrats===
LakeCoConservative: Wake up and smell the 10th District coffee. Mark Kirk is the most ‘conservative’ representative that has any chance of being elected in this blue district (not to mention that he is a great congressman). You can rail that he is not ‘right’ enough for you all you like, but the 10th Dist. will NEVER elect a hardcore right-winger like yourself, so either deal with it, or enjoy a few cycles of an empty-suit liberal like Dan Seals to see what your limited view has brought to you. Or move to Oklahoma if you can only stand to be among the right-wingers.
- adam smith - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:02 am:
All the blather from right-wing whack jobs is music to Kirk’s ears. It shows the independents that decide the race in the 10th that he is not aligned with the extremist wing of the party that they are so turned off by. When the Dems blast Kirk as being a pawn of George Bush and the right-wing blasts him as being a leftist, his constituents realize he must be doing something right.
The right-wingers, as usual, want to purge the Republicans of anyone who isn’t marching in lock step with thier social agenda. Anyone who thinks a Jan Schakowsky clone getting elected from the 10th is better than Kirk is a fool
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:10 am:
Seals isn’t ready for prime time. Kirk’s sharp.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:10 am:
Well said, Adam. LakeCoConservative and Phil Collins, to name a few, ought to spend less time goose-stepping to their draconian social dogma and try to help the mainstream GOP win some elections, for a change.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:22 am:
Rich,
The DCCC “has spent a bunch of money”? $60k in this race to date is going to look like pennies by November.
Other than some robocalls here hasn’t yet been much direct contact this far in advance of the election.
–
“lake county democrat” — I find it interesting that someone claiming to be a Dem is spouting Republican talking points. Just sayin’.
- nobody sent - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:25 am:
How desperate is Kirk that he’s done two polls in the last three months? Something smells fishy here. No way Kirk wins this race with a 20 point lead. Just doesn’t happen. Also, it’s interesting to note that this executive summary touts Kirk’s big win over his 2004 opponent, who wasn’t competitive at all.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:30 am:
===How desperate is Kirk that he’s done two polls in the last three months?===
With so much press about how this is supposed to be one of the hottest races in the country, why is it desperate for Kirk to be polling? If anything, it seems to show that the hype about the race is, so far, a lot of wishful thinking on the part of Dan ‘I look like Barack, so vote for me’ Seals.
Notwithstanding how damaged the Obama brand may be come fall, if Obama comes in to do any campaigning for a flawed candidate like Seals (professor-gate, gas-gate, Rosty-gate, among other flubs come to mind), he’s a fool.
- bored now - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 11:50 am:
kirk is a complete idiot if he believes that “a strong incumbent should” be polling at 50% threshold. that threshold is a danger alert for an incumbent, and kirk is just barely above it.
the real tell of that poll is seals’ name recognition. seals is polling 32% with only 39% name recognition? hello, mcfly! is there anyone in there? no wonder charlie cook moved the district to a toss-up:
as for the jackson/halvorson feud, i’m not sure it doesn’t benefit debbie’s campaign. sure, jackson takes a (cheap) shot, but that gives her some decided independence from jesse jackson, who isn’t necessarily popular in il-11…
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:05 pm:
“…shame on anyone for suggesting ties to convicted felon Rezko–someone whom I have never even met.”
That is a measurable statement. If anyone can find a photo with Halvorson in the same room with Rezko, she’s toast.
I asked Larry about his quote and it’s source, but the document he links us to doesn’t have that quote. Instead it is a document saying that Jackson rejected Blagojevich’s proposal on the ALNAC board. So I asked him to share with us.
I am confident he has the right document somewhere.
On the other hand, it doesn’t matter anymore. With Jackson’s diatribe against Halvorson yesterday we have a new reality for her campaign. The DNC has to wonder if Jackson will attack her on other issues and know how to handle this unusual situation. It just isn’t common to see a popular US Congressman attacking one of his own party candidates in this emotional manner.
So we’ve gone beyond he said/they said. Rich was correct when this story first broke. We went quickly from a surrogate penning an opinion against Blagojevich/Rezko and Halvorson, to a US Congressman openly displaying contempt towards Halvorson’s “Pay-o-Play” bill, as her SB 2063 was repeatedly identified in this manner by his interviewers yesterday.
The non-response from Halvorson seems to indicate that her campaign staff of outsiders could be clueless regarding the Third Airport issue. This is the risk a candidate undertakes when they take money and staff from outside sources. When local issues are interjected, the campaign cannot correctly respond. Halvorson’s campaign staffers are typical folks who are capable in handling pre-packaged national issues a-la-Democrat, not local issues a-la-corruptoIllinois. So they are probably wheeling. The DNC has to be having phone calls among staffers involved with Jackson and Halvorson and trying to assess damage. They have to determine how many more bombs Jackson may want to unleash on Halvorson until November and defuse them beforehand.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:09 pm:
As to the comment that Jackson isn’t popular in the 11th, this is absolutely incorrect. While there were doubts over him when he was first elected, he has proven himself and has earned a great deal of respect. Voters in the 11th are not unfamiliar with Jesse Jackson Jr, and recognize the difference he has made over the past 15 years.
Jackson’s voters over the years have been moving into the 11th, and they carry with them positive feelings. Halvorson is more of an unknown to Joliet voters than Jackson is.
Anyone trying to downplay this attack isn’t recognizing how closely tied these two Districts are.
- archpundit - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:16 pm:
===Anyone trying to downplay this attack isn’t recognizing how closely tied these two Districts are.
I cannot speak directly to how closely alligned these districts are, but no one should be downplaying the attack and one of my frustrations is that I’ve been out ahead of the Halvorson campaign on this and it’s a completely refutable story for their part.
- 10th Indy - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:18 pm:
Kirk works hard and has high visibility in the District. My guess is the talk about how tight the race is will only make him tougher on the campaign. Like a lot of my neighbors I punched Kerry/Kirk in ‘04 and am pretty sure I’ll go with Obama/Kirk come November - Seals hasn’t done anything in the 3 years he’s been running to make me vote differently.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:31 pm:
Rich, did you take my post down or did it get caught in the spam filter?
- Kevin Fanning - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:33 pm:
I took it down because it bordered on slander.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:35 pm:
Kevin, Understood. Email me — illinoisreason AT gmail DOT com — and I’ll clean up the parts you object to. Thanks.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
I agree with Arch that the Halvorson campaign should be able to nip this quickly. The underlying facts point more toward a turf battle. It is difficult to understand why Jackson would want to torpedo a fellow Dem. I would like to know where Rham is.
That said, sometimes it is best to keep you mouth shut. If the press takes an anti-Halvorson angle, nothing she says will help. But if Jackson keeps talking and the press starts looking at what underlies this tiff, it could go in Deb’s favor without her having to slam a fellow Dem. She comes out looking good; again, without saying much if anything.
Silence may be the best route for Deb.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 3:33 pm:
…And now for the G-rated version…
Team America,
All the “-gates” you list seem to have been promoted by partisan Kirk supporters rather than being anything of much merit.
#1. Dan Seals is a professor; there is no “professor-gate”. As you often note on your blog, one of your compatriots is in his class and, if your friend does well, will earn credit hours from having taken the class. If Dan Seals is not a professor, that wouldn’t be happening. Even the soap opera about “a letter to the NU president” was found to be just a small group of conservatives (including you) trying to create an issue — hardly a widespread call to oust Seals.
#2. The media reporting on the Dan Seals gas station promo started out mostly neutral (with the exception of the flawed Trib article in which the Trib reporter accepted an emailed quote from a Kirk supporter who was likely not even anywhere near the gas station that day).
It was only after the Kirk campaign clearly leaned on the media as Rich himself noted that
headlines mysteriously changed in tone overnight to sound sour on Dan Seals. Thus, no “gas station-gate” either… just some media massaging on behalf of the Kirk campaign.
#3. As far as Rostenkowski goes, the fact that a former Congressional leader would come to speak to a government studies class about government is hardly surprising. We all know Rosty’s legal troubles, and he has paid his dues to society. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have anything to teach people.
As noted by Pioneer
Press columnist Randy Blaser, “Did Rosty pass an envelope to Seals? Yes, said [Lis Smith, Seals’ communication director]. Inside was a note from Rostenkowski’s wife and a contribution from her.”
So yes, there was a donation (from Rosty’s wife) but as the Seals campaign spokesperson noted Dan Seals did not even accept it.
Mr. Blaser concluded by asking why the Republicans (incl. such as yourself) continue to focus on such non-issues and determined: “I guess when you’re responsible for a tanking economy and a war built on deceit, what else have you got?” (emphasis added)
Well put.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 4:08 pm:
Well, Rob, you clearly have your viewpoint, and I have mine. I am not going to bother responding to your points, because we’ve had this discussion before, but if anyone is that interested, the counterpoints are at www.teamamerica10th.blogspot.com
Suffice it to say that the spin machines are charged up on both sides, and us shooting at each other here, on my blog or your blog are not going to move the meter much, in contrast to what the MSM decides, and what the voters choose to believe about Rosty and the rest.
Glad to see that Kevin is keeping your slander in check.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 4:18 pm:
The cat is already out of the bag. Halvorson will have to create new diversions or answer critics of her “Pay-To-Play” Airport Bill in a manner easily understood. Calling Jackson’s attack “petty” isn’t showing enough concern over what he is alleging against her.
Halvorson’s baggage is her ties to Blagojevich and through her silent partner, Emil Jones. Once Jackson threw Rezko into the mix, he made her baggage even heavier.
Jackson and Bryant have the upper hand concerning this issue while Halvorson is merely silent or reacting too slowly to control it. It is easy for Jackson and Bryant to spin this as a crusade against corruption using elected ALNAC seats against Halvorson’s Pay-To-Play Rezko model. It is easy to paint her with this brush and it will be difficult for her to scrap that paint off, even if she makes the arguments Archpundit is making.
Ozinga’s staffers have to be very happy.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 4:23 pm:
Regarding Kirk/Seal…
The polls are correct even if they are based on small samples. We’ve been discussing this race over the past several months, and Seal has not done enough to give voters new reasons to look at him again during those months.
Bush is not on the ballot, but Obama is. Seal has a chance if he makes his case, but I still am not seeing it. But Seals needs to create new reasons to vote for him, not regugitate 2006 anti-Bush babble.
Kirk has been doing a great job walking the line representing his district’s constituents. He has gotten the financial backing he needs and right now, he still looks safe - easily by 3% or more.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 4:30 pm:
VM-
Here’s Ozinga’s campaign in a nutshell:
“Rezko, Blago, Emily’s List”.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 4:37 pm:
Team,
Kevin and I had a conversation via email about it (he has my permission to post what he likes of those emails if he so desires). Turns out he misread what I originally wrote. Such is life.
Besides, even with the misreading, he said “borders on” not “is”. Leave it to you to take it to the next step, and miss a few points along the way.
–
Vanilla,
You haven’t been listening to what Seals has been discussing lately, have you? It’s hardly “anti-Bush babble”.
You also apparently haven’t been listening to what Rep. Kirk has been saying, let alone doing, either.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 5:00 pm:
Says you and 32% of other voters in this District.
- team america, world police - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 5:22 pm:
LOL, VM
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 6:32 pm:
Laugh now. Five months til the only poll that matters guys.
- JonShibleyFan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 7:51 pm:
Rep. Jackson is popular in the 11th? Based on what?
Maybe in University Park or Crete. But these folks know Halvorson better than anyone in the district. And they aren’t going to stay home on Election Day.
I’ll lay good odds that it doesn’t take one to get past Monee, let alone New Lenox, Frankfort, Homer, and on down to McLean Co. for Rep. Jackson’s currency to fall off the shelf.
Credit where it’s due; this made for a good press day for Ozinga and was an unwelcome annoyance for the Halvorson folks. (Not sure it made Rep. Jackson look good)
But a game changer? Seems unlikely.
- KirkFan - Thursday, Jun 12, 08 @ 10:11 pm:
Rob N. you are clearly involved with his campaign, since you and not the voters are echoing the themes you are sounding and have been sounding for 3.5 years to a successful 30 percent in the polls. You should note that on the North Shore voters read papers and read people very well and are able to read through Dan’s out of district message funded by out of district special interest groups (actblue) and are not buying it at a time when the rest of the party is struggling.
For those that want to rip on Kirk from the right, a Republican winning elections is not the problem. The failure of those who live and “lead” in the 65 districts across the country and state IL-08, IL-14 ect that the President carried and the dems hold, is. You need to get a message for 2008, not 1968, start winning elections rather than writing on blogs and then you can complain.
- Rob_N - Friday, Jun 13, 08 @ 12:02 am:
I have volunteered for Seals in the past and likely will do so again in the future months. On that point I’ve been quite just as up front as Team America with his being “clearly involved” in the Kirk campaign.
You should note that the 10th is more than just “the North Shore” (or do you consider everything from Wheeling Township to North Chicago “North Shore”?)…
You should also note that ActBlue is not a special interest group but rather simply a means of collecting donations (are credit cards “special interest groups”?)…
And you should probably note that I’ve repeatedly stated that I like Kirk. I just disagree with his many of his policies and his tendency to flip-flop on votes; voting against bills before voting for them so he can cover his bases.
That said, I also disagree with Team America’s habit of info-pimping anti-Seals propaganda.