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Poll: Voters blame Blagojevich far more than Madigan

Monday, Sep 22, 2008

* Rasmussen Reports has a new statewide poll of 500 likely Voters. The survey was conducted September 17, 2008 and has a +/- 4.5 margin of error.

The firm asked voters who was to blame more for Democratic Party feuding, Gov. Blagojevich or House Speaker Madigan (Democratic voter response in parentheses)…

Blagojevich 54% (41%)
Madigan 16% (22%)
Not sure 30% (37%)

Obviously, this is not good news for the guv.

* Here are Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s job performance numbers

Excellent 3%
Good 9%

Fair 28%
Poor 60%
Not sure 0%

Oof.

The crosstabs show that just 5 percent of African-American voters rate the guv’s performance as “Good” while 0 percent say he is doing an “Excellent” job. Double oof.

* Rasmussen also tested House Speaker Michael Madigan’s job performance

Excellent 5%
Good 31%

Fair 36%
Poor 20%
Not sure 9%

* I’m not sure why but the Post-Dispatch’s Research 2000 polling firm always has Blagojevich’s job approval ratings far higher than everyone else

If public opinion is the measure, Gov. Rod Blagojevich may be losing his continuing war of wills against the Legislature.

A new poll conducted for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV (Channel 4) finds Blagojevich facing a dismal 34 percent favorable rating among likely Illinois voters, halfway through his contentious second term. That’s a significant drop from the 42 percent rating he received in a similar poll in January. Almost two out of three poll respondents now rate him unfavorable.

At the same time, the Democratic-controlled Legislature has seen a slight improvement in its own still-low favorable rating. The body’s 37 percent rating from January now stands at 41 — this after a year of open rebellion against fellow Democrat Blagojevich on budgetary, ethics and constitutional issues.

“He’s losing that war,” said pollster Del Ali.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 15-18 by Research 2000, a Maryland-based polling firm. A total of 800 likely Illinois voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

* Meanwhile, Rasmussen looks at Dick Durbin’s US Senate reelection

Illinois Senator Dick Durbin enjoys a 24-percentage-point lead in his bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the incumbent leading Republican opponent Steve Sauerberg 59% to 35%. That’s little changed from a month ago.

Durbin, the number two ranked Democrat in the United States Senate, is seeking his third term in the Senate. Sauerberg is a doctor from the Chicago suburbs.

Durbin is viewed favorably by 59% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 35%. Sauerberg’s numbers are 39% favorable and 33% unfavorable, while 28% are not sure.

* Rasmussen also checks into the presidential contest here

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in [Illinois] shows Obama attracting 56% of the vote while McCain earns 40%. Those results are little changed from last month when Obama held a fifteen point advantage.

Fifty percent (50%) of Illinois voters say that local reporters will try to help Obama win the White House while 8% believe they will try to help McCain. Thirty-three percent (33%) believe the media will try to remain neutral and offer unbiased coverage. These figures are similar to perceptions on a national basis.

McCain has the support of 88% of Illinois Republicans, while 91% of the state’s Democrats are backing Obama. The Democrat has a twenty-one point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama’s is viewed favorably by 66% of Illinois voters while McCain earns positive reviews from 53%.

As for the running mates, 63% have a favorable opinion of Delaware Senator Joe Biden while 50% say the same about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

* The Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama ahead of McCain 48.7% to 34.1%. It’s 52.9% 37.0% with “leaners.”

Illinois right direction, wrong direction numbers are 15.9% to 77.1%. Makes sense, considering.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

16 Comments
  1. - Vote Quimby! - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:21 am:

    ==I’m not sure why but the Post-Dispatch’s Research 2000 polling firm always has Blagojevich’s job approval ratings far higher than everyone else==

    Could it be because they’re polling a higher percentage of Metro East kool-aid drinkers? Thanks, Jay!


  2. - Levois - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:25 am:

    Local reporters helping Obama. I don’t see it, but national reporters on the other hand. I can believe it.


  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:36 am:

    I’d be curious how many voters really know who Madigan is. Right or wrong, good or bad, the governor is the face of Illinois government.

    If the African-American numbers don’t sober the governor up, nothing will.


  4. Pingback Voters Blame Rod Blagojevich | A Chicago Blog - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:52 am:

    […] Capitol Fax is reporting on a new Rasmussen Poll that shows Rod Blagojevich doesn’t have many friends in the voting public, as if we didn’t already know that. According to Rich, Rasmussen asks who is to blame for Illinois Democrats fueding: Blagojevich 54% (41% of Democrats) Madigan 16% (22% of Democrats) Not sure 30% (37% of Democrats) […]


  5. - Greg - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:52 am:

    I’m surprised by the 0% “not sure” showing for Blagojevich. Apparently voters are paying attention to the mess.


  6. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 8:55 am:

    All this sounds about right. No surprises, really.


  7. - Squideshi - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 10:04 am:

    These polls are, by definition, inaccurate, because they don’t include all choices that voters will have on the ballot at election day. You can’t correctly state that if someone don’t plan to vote for the Democrat or Republican that they are “undecided.” They may well be decided and planning to vote for a Green, an independent, or the candidate of another party that will be on the ballot. Plus, the polls are likely also inaccurate because when presented with only the choice between Republican and Democrat, some voters who will vote otherwise on election day will probably say Republican or Democrat, artificially inflating those candidates’ numbers. These polling firms should really pay attention to how they’re conducting surveys.


  8. - Phil Collins - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 10:20 am:

    Last week’s Univ. of Wisconsin poll said that, in IL, Obama was ahead of McCain, 49%-34%. 2% support other candidates, and 15% are undecided.


  9. - 2 - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 10:31 am:

    Rich, the reason Research 2000 is always higher is that they ask a straight up Approve or disapprove question.

    Generally, I think the word “fair” should be banned from polls. People interpret “fair” to be “ok” or “so-so” or “average”. But the pollsters intend it to be a negative.

    Its not an accurate indicator.

    Do an approve/disapprove poll to see where people really are. Make them make a choice.


  10. - Angry Chicagoan - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 10:36 am:

    Well, I am glad to see that the people of Illinois aren’t as stupid as the governor takes them for. Nine percent approval just about gets us down to special interests who directly benefit from his antics. And the lukewarm response to Madigan is also about right — he has behaved honorably for the most part but has not been nearly as effective as I would like and does have some significant baggage.

    I’d hope Emil Jones would be down there with the governor but I suppose no-one’s bothering to ask the question now that he is taking his golden handshake from the state and walking off into a not-very-well-earned retirement.


  11. - Bill Baar - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 11:10 am:

    The Big Ten Battleground Poll has Obama ahead of McCain 48.7% to 34.1%. It’s 52.9% 37.0% with “leaners.”

    Shouldn’t Obama be doing a little better than 48.7% in Illinois?


  12. - Squideshi - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 2:34 pm:

    “Shouldn’t Obama be doing a little better than 48.7% in Illinois?”

    Maybe he shouldn’t have voted in support of the so-called USA PATRIOT Act.


  13. - Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 4:24 pm:

    These polls are, by definition, inaccurate, because they don’t include all choices that voters will have on the ballot at election day.

    OK, so they’re off by 1%.


  14. - Black Ivy - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 5:20 pm:

    Despite being a lifelong Democrat, I will be breaking away from the notion of party loyalty and supporting MCCain/Palin this year. Obama’s untruths and underhanded tactics were simply unpalatable. McCain demonstrated leadership in selecting a woman and banking his candidacy on Palin. Obama had his chance with Clinton…

    Regarding Blagojevich’s numbers, I believe there is more than enough blame to go around. As sitting Governor, Blagojevich has born the brunt of the state’s failings and I believe this unfair.


  15. - T.J. - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 6:02 pm:

    That Illinois re-elected Blagojevich worries me a lot less than that Biden has a 63% approval rating here. There truly is no hope for this state.


  16. - Squideshi - Monday, Sep 22, 08 @ 7:33 pm:

    “OK, so they’re off by 1%.”

    Speculation such as this still does not a scientific poll make.


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