* Nate Silver has a “big picture” analysis of Illinois that seems just about right…
If the suburban Chicago vote is split roughly evenly between the two parties, then two things are guaranteed to happen. One, it will be a hotbed for Congressional races, as it is again this year.
But two, it allows the Chicago city vote to swamp the downstate, rural vote. The city proper has no more people than downstate — actually, slightly fewer — but when it goes for the Democrat by 50 or 60 points, and downstate goes for the Republican by 15 or 25 points, that gives the Democrat an insurmountable advantage.
He also has our vital stats in a nifty graph, which you can find at this link.
* Now, onto some congressional races. The Sun-Times offers up an explanation for why Republican Congresscritter Peter Roskam has created a pro-Obama website…
Freshman Rep. Peter Roskam — who supports Republican John McCain over Obama — has launched ObamaVotersForRoskam.com. […]
Roskam’s spokesman said the Web site was appropriate because 30 percent of Roskam supporters are voting for Obama.
* There’s more to it than that…
Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Wheaton, is putting out an urgent appeal for last-minute contributions, noting Mr. Obama’s 14-point lead in his west suburban district.
Republicans still worry privately that the freshman star could be collateral damage to an Obama wave.
* The Obama campaign responds…
“While we’re pleased that Barack Obama continues to attract support from across party lines … he believes Congressman Roskam would continue President Bush’s failed policies and is supporting Jill Morgenthaler for Congress,” said Obama spokesman Justin DeJong. […]
The Obama quote says, “First of all, I am a member of the mutual admiration society with Senator Roskam. He is always terrific.” […]
After praising Roskam - typical form for Senate floor debate - Obama said, “Having said that, have I said that he’s wrong? I love him, but he’s wrong.”
The Tribune has a Roskam story today, but reports nothing new.
* Meanwhile, the Peoria Journal Star allowed Aaron Schock to completely get away with saying that his back-dating of a notary stamp was a “clerical mistake” when his own father testified that it was a deliberate act. Today, the newspaper goes after Colleen Callahan on this…
Half of the six people touted by Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan’s campaign Monday as “Republican voters” who support her told the Journal Star they classify themselves more as independents.
Such a scandal.
* Wondering where to go to beat the early voting lines today? Here is a list of the least busy early voting wards in Chicago…
10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 22, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, and 32
And the Cook County suburbs…
Barrington, Norridge, Elmwood Park, Cicero, Stickney, Alsip, Blue Island and Lemont
Not much of a suprise, especially in the city. White wards with big Latino populations and strong Latino wards have historically experienced much lower (or quickly fallling) turnout.
* On the other hand, there are a whole lot of Latinos in Kane County, which experienced its 40,000th early voter yesterday…
That is more than 10,000 ahead of the number of voters Kane County Clerk John Cunningham estimated would vote early — and at the time Rogers cast his ballot, there still was a day and a half of early voting left.
Late Wednesday, Cunningham and Deputy County Clerk Jay Bennett estimated the numbers could go as high as 47,000 voters by the end of today, the last day to vote early in Illinois. […]
The surprising number means about 19 percent of Kane County’s 214,000 registered voters already have voted.
A new report by the [\Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights] says Illinois now has more than three-quarters of a million foreign-born citizens and that most live in Chicago’s suburbs. Hoyt says nearly one of every eight registered voters in Kane County is now Latino. […]
Sonia Sánchez, 18, is leading a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote canvass in her hometown, Aurora. That’s the largest city in Illinois’s 14th Congressional District, where Oberweis is running. And it’s grown more Latino over the years. The ICIRR is coordinating this canvass and others like it in battleground Congressional districts surrounding Chicago.[emphasis added]
* African-American early voting has been huge…
Fired up about Barack Obama and fearing long lines on Election Day, black voters are turning out in droves in the south suburbs to cast their ballots early this year.
As of Wednesday, well over 8,000 votes had been cast in both Matteson and South Holland - more than in places such as Oak Park, Schaumburg, Oak Lawn and Evanston.
Out of the 44 early voting sites in suburban Cook County, only Wheeling and Orland Park had seen more traffic.
* Bean has cash advantage over Greenberg
* Greenberg makes final charge to unseat Bean
* Greenpeace trying to get 8th District’s attention
* 10th District rematch a familiar affair
* Kirk, Seals square off in debate
* 11th Congressional race stays heated to the end
* GOP rookie Ozinga, Democratic veteran Halvorson in attack mode over 11th District seat
* Manzullo faces two challengers
* Green issues a focus in 6th District
* Obama flood may drown Illinois Republicans
* Bernard Schoenburg: Would-be Congressman Schock spreads cash around