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Campaign roundup: Why we are what we are; Roskam and Obama; PJ-S strikes again; Early voting

Thursday, Oct 30, 2008

* Nate Silver has a “big picture” analysis of Illinois that seems just about right

If the suburban Chicago vote is split roughly evenly between the two parties, then two things are guaranteed to happen. One, it will be a hotbed for Congressional races, as it is again this year.

But two, it allows the Chicago city vote to swamp the downstate, rural vote. The city proper has no more people than downstate — actually, slightly fewer — but when it goes for the Democrat by 50 or 60 points, and downstate goes for the Republican by 15 or 25 points, that gives the Democrat an insurmountable advantage.

He also has our vital stats in a nifty graph, which you can find at this link.

* Now, onto some congressional races. The Sun-Times offers up an explanation for why Republican Congresscritter Peter Roskam has created a pro-Obama website…

Freshman Rep. Peter Roskam — who supports Republican John McCain over Obama — has launched ObamaVotersForRoskam.com. […]

Roskam’s spokesman said the Web site was appropriate because 30 percent of Roskam supporters are voting for Obama.

* There’s more to it than that…

Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Wheaton, is putting out an urgent appeal for last-minute contributions, noting Mr. Obama’s 14-point lead in his west suburban district.

* Roll-Call

Republicans still worry privately that the freshman star could be collateral damage to an Obama wave.

* The Obama campaign responds

“While we’re pleased that Barack Obama continues to attract support from across party lines … he believes Congressman Roskam would continue President Bush’s failed policies and is supporting Jill Morgenthaler for Congress,” said Obama spokesman Justin DeJong. […]

The Obama quote says, “First of all, I am a member of the mutual admiration society with Senator Roskam. He is always terrific.” […]

After praising Roskam - typical form for Senate floor debate - Obama said, “Having said that, have I said that he’s wrong? I love him, but he’s wrong.”

The Tribune has a Roskam story today, but reports nothing new.

* Meanwhile, the Peoria Journal Star allowed Aaron Schock to completely get away with saying that his back-dating of a notary stamp was a “clerical mistake” when his own father testified that it was a deliberate act. Today, the newspaper goes after Colleen Callahan on this

Half of the six people touted by Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan’s campaign Monday as “Republican voters” who support her told the Journal Star they classify themselves more as independents.

Such a scandal.

* Wondering where to go to beat the early voting lines today? Here is a list of the least busy early voting wards in Chicago…

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 22, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, and 32

And the Cook County suburbs…

Barrington, Norridge, Elmwood Park, Cicero, Stickney, Alsip, Blue Island and Lemont

Not much of a suprise, especially in the city. White wards with big Latino populations and strong Latino wards have historically experienced much lower (or quickly fallling) turnout.

* On the other hand, there are a whole lot of Latinos in Kane County, which experienced its 40,000th early voter yesterday

That is more than 10,000 ahead of the number of voters Kane County Clerk John Cunningham estimated would vote early — and at the time Rogers cast his ballot, there still was a day and a half of early voting left.

Late Wednesday, Cunningham and Deputy County Clerk Jay Bennett estimated the numbers could go as high as 47,000 voters by the end of today, the last day to vote early in Illinois. […]

The surprising number means about 19 percent of Kane County’s 214,000 registered voters already have voted.

Background

A new report by the [\Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights] says Illinois now has more than three-quarters of a million foreign-born citizens and that most live in Chicago’s suburbs. Hoyt says nearly one of every eight registered voters in Kane County is now Latino. […]

Sonia Sánchez, 18, is leading a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote canvass in her hometown, Aurora. That’s the largest city in Illinois’s 14th Congressional District, where Oberweis is running. And it’s grown more Latino over the years. The ICIRR is coordinating this canvass and others like it in battleground Congressional districts surrounding Chicago.[emphasis added]

* African-American early voting has been huge

Fired up about Barack Obama and fearing long lines on Election Day, black voters are turning out in droves in the south suburbs to cast their ballots early this year.

As of Wednesday, well over 8,000 votes had been cast in both Matteson and South Holland - more than in places such as Oak Park, Schaumburg, Oak Lawn and Evanston.

Out of the 44 early voting sites in suburban Cook County, only Wheeling and Orland Park had seen more traffic.

* Related…

* Bean has cash advantage over Greenberg

* Greenberg makes final charge to unseat Bean

* Greenpeace trying to get 8th District’s attention

* 10th District rematch a familiar affair

* Kirk, Seals square off in debate

* 11th Congressional race stays heated to the end

* GOP rookie Ozinga, Democratic veteran Halvorson in attack mode over 11th District seat

* Manzullo faces two challengers

* Green issues a focus in 6th District

* Obama flood may drown Illinois Republicans

* Bernard Schoenburg: Would-be Congressman Schock spreads cash around

- Posted by Rich Miller        

8 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 11:50 am:

    On Fox news this morning, they said some people on the South Side yesterday waited in line four to six hours to vote early.

    Why in the world would you do that?


  2. - OneMan - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 12:21 pm:

    Keep in mind your Kane county numbers likely exclude Aurora since it has it’s own election commission.


  3. - Stuck with Sen. CPA - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 12:23 pm:

    A good deal of the Latino population in Kane County is in Aurora, which has its own Election Commission. Early voting turnout in Aurora is about 10 percent compared to 19 in Kane.


  4. - western illinois - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 12:29 pm:

    I should alos point out most of downstates population is URBAN -its QC Rockford Bloonington and so on. I would also Generally voting dem ONLY the southern tip is becoming more GOP and it has only a tiny part of downstates population Basically the GOP is only Midd to older white males in rural areas who farm and hunt…and a couple of billionares


  5. - Some Guy - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 12:39 pm:

    I really like Silver’s work in general and thought that was a solid piece overall. One nitpick: he badly underestimates the number of counties McCain will win. While the state has gone blue the last 20 years, about two-thirds of its counties have had the GOP gain votes. They’re just getting absolutely slaughtered in 7 counties in NW IL, though. In 2004, 44 different counties gave Bush at least 60% of the vote.


  6. - fan of Nate Silver...and the Cubs - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 12:44 pm:

    Rich left out the absolute best line from the Nate Silver piece:

    “what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again?”


  7. - Peoria Pal - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 7:13 pm:

    Keep in mind this is the same set of sad sacks at the PJS that have failed to mention Krupa sent Gordon an unconditional, hand written promise not to sleaze up the campaign. Cross’ crew tossed that promise out the window when the polls showed them losing.
    There is little wonder why this newspaper is sliding down hill very quickly


  8. - Jessica - Thursday, Oct 30, 08 @ 11:14 pm:

    I voted early today and in total it took 1 hour and 40 minutes here in Elgin.

    Speaking of voting early, you would be outraged to know that the election lady handing out the Con-Con papers was asked to explain what it is and her response was “I’m not supposed to say anything to sway your vote…but you aren’t in the booth yet…the main thing would be having a meeting to talk about changing state workers’ pensions, and people estimate it would cost $80 million dollars.”

    There were audible gasps from at least five people (she had many people’s attention because before she was asked that question she had been announcing the handouts to about 30 of us waiting in line). I heard at least three people say they hadn’t heard of it but would vote against it now.

    I took down her name and tomorrow I plan on figuring out who I should report her to. That was clearly illegal.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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