This and that
Wednesday, Feb 17, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Click the pic for a larger image of our graph of the day…
[h/t: Sully]
* From Alexi Giannoulias’ new poll, which has him leading Mark Kirk 49-45…
* Democrats remain more popular than Republicans in Illinois. Despite what we are seeing elsewhere, Democrats are still significantly more popular than Republicans in Illinois. Just 34 percent of Illinois voters have a favorable impression of the GOP, while 46 percent have unfavorable impressions. By comparison, views of Democrats are evenly split (41 – 42 percent favorable-unfavorable).
* President Obama remains very popular in Illinois. President Obama continues to have very solid standing in Illinois. The President’s 59 – 31 percent favorable/unfavorable rating is as high as in any state we’ve seen recently. Even among Independents, Obama has a positive, 51 – 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. Sixty-four percent of Illinoisans approve of the job Obama is doing as President.
* Quote of the day…
“Every [Illinois] Democrat I know, every politically knowledgeable and interested Democrat is worried. The combination of factors is potentially pretty lethal,” said John Schmidt, a Chicago attorney who ran unsuccessfully in 1998 for the Democratic nomination for governor.
* Something to keep in mind when people start throwing around “unfunded liability” horror stories…
The $62.4 billion unfunded liability [of all the state’s pension systems] reflects the money the state needs, but doesn’t have currently, to cover all the earned pension credits if they were cashed in all at once. While that’s an unrealistic situation, it is a financial measure used to gauge the health of pension systems. It’s akin to having enough money in your savings account to cover your mortgage if the bank called the entire loan at once.
You can make a lot of trouble with numbers, and that unfunded liability stat is always one of the bigger trouble-makers.
* The only McPier reform that will ever really matter…
…allowing McPier to audit the books of the two large companies that actually operate conventions for trade groups to make sure cost savings are passed on to their clients.
Until they can get a handle on those two companies, nothing major will change. Trouble is, nobody really thinks that the McPier honchos actually want a “real” audit for fear that the companies, which control a huge percentage of the national convention industry, will turn McCormick Place into a ghost town.
* The State Board of Elections’ website is a heaping pile of stinking electronic decay which can’t even handle its current traffic load, yet the House Majority Leader wants to give it more responsibilities and generate lots more traffic…
Voters may soon look to the State Board of Elections for information on candidates in primary races.
Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, a Chicago Democrat, said that her bill, which would require the board of elections to create voter guides for the primary, is not a direct response to this month’s election and noted that she filed the legislation in January.
However, she did say the election, with its tight races and low voter turnout, underscored the need for voters to be more informed about the candidates. She said including primary candidates in the voter guides — which contain basic information submitted by each candidate — that the board of elections now provides for general elections would be a good start.
The bright side is that if the public finally sees for itself how woefully decrepit the board’s site is, maybe the resulting outrage will force the board to get its act together. I’m not holding my breath.
* Senate President John Cullerton’s staff called this afternoon to insist that the closed-door “joint caucus” meeting today was both legal and constitutional.
Legally - as I tried to point out in comments on an earlier post - the General Assembly is not covered under the Open Meetings Act.
Constitutionally, the SDem view is that Supreme court rulings dating back to the 19th Century essentially only force the GA to abide by what’s in the document itself. If, as is the case here, the Constitution insists that sessions and committees be open to the public, then only sessions and committee hearings are covered. Since the Senate adjourned after announcing a “joint caucus,” the meeting was not technically a session or a hearing. They did agree, however, that they probably ought to revisit the political aspects of these full-chamber secret meetings.
Craven makes a valid point…
Donald Craven, a longtime attorney for the Illinois Press Association who also has represented the Chicago Tribune on open government issues, said the meeting should have been open no matter how big or small the topic.
“The topic is not important,” Craven said. “If the Senate can go into a joint caucus to talk about this topic, what’s the logical extreme?
“Can they also go into a joint caucus to debate the budget bill? Can they go into a joint caucus to debate the hundreds of other bills that go before the state Senate?” Craven asked.
- Obamarama - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 1:49 pm:
You have got to be kidding me with adding to the ISBoE website without completely overhauling it first. During filing week, challenge week, reporting weeks and anytime within a month of an election the website is completely inundated and cannot come close to handling the traffic.
My kingdom for a horse that can open links in a new tab.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 1:53 pm:
===My kingdom for a horse that can open links in a new tab. ===
lol. Preach it.
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 1:59 pm:
What is the significance the reporter couldn’t get the quote from a Democrat more prominent than Schmidt?
Media outlets regularly portray races that end up being blowouts as close. It’s like when announcers portray a lost football game as theoretically winnable or craft some ubercomplicated scenario for the Bears to get a wild card berth.
- Capt. Illini - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
Rich: Being an election judge for the past six years, the number one reason for low voter turn-out in the primaries is the closed primary system…period! If people did not have to chose a party, they would come to vote in greater numbers.
- Potted Plant - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:01 pm:
Leave it to a lawyer (John Cullerton) to espouse that this closed-door meeting is okay because it is “legal”. What about “ethical”? Somehow the word “ethical” has failed to make it into the “top ten list” with certain lawyers. Come on, John. Let’s try something unique and revolutionary in concept for a change down in Springfield. Let’s put the emphasis on “ethical” as well as legal. That would certainly be a novel approach to Illinois state government down in Springfield. Is there any wonder why the voters in Illinois have a degree of disgust with our incumbent elected officials down in Springfield?
- really? - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:01 pm:
=The State Board of Elections’ website is a heaping pile of stinking electronic decay =
omg lol
any stimulus funds available to fix it? LOL
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:01 pm:
Most people will put up with just about anything if they’re reasonably satisfied in their economic standing and have some optimism for the future. See Bill Clinton.
Some real legal razzle-dazzle there from the Senate staff. Is it a session? I guess that depends on your definition of “is.”
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:02 pm:
===any stimulus funds available to fix it? LOL===
Why throw money down that rat hole? First, they need new people running things over there, then maybe they can fix their problems.
- Greg B. - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:04 pm:
Reassuring that the staff of the guy who called the potential illegal meeting is telling us that it’s ok…
Great point on the unfunded liabilities. Nice to know someone is paying attention…
- Anon-Number7 - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:05 pm:
The Daily Herald’s comparison of our State’s unfunded liability with someone’s mortgage balance is an apples to oranges comparison. A person’s mortgage is finite - usually 30 years. At the end of that period there is no more liability or debt. But with the State, unless the General Assembly completely reforms (or eliminates) the pension system (not likely), there will ALWAYS be additional liability coming in the future. It will never end. Another term for this is a pyramid scheme.
- shore - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:06 pm:
i can understand when government screws up things that political leaders dont see everyday-an aid program in uzbekistan, but when legislators screw up things they have to put up with and need-board of elections, the u.s. capitol was a mess for the last decade with a construction project that made hurricane katrina relief look well managed. It doesn’t make sense.
Alexi continues to look desperate, showing a poll result within the margin of error where Kirk is running 11 points ahead of his party, and which probably does not account for the intensity which is going to be all on the gop side, not good.
- downstate dem - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:19 pm:
Does anyone in power in this state, understand the appearance they are giving to the residents of this state. Ethics and morality, in decision making just aren’t possible, behind closed doors. They just don’t get it, that these kind of “thug” tactics are precisely what is wrong with state government and why nothing will change with these kind of people running things.
- Windy City Mama - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:30 pm:
I love that poll. Only in Illinois. These would be the same people who elected Blagojevich not once but twice.
- Mountain Man - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:39 pm:
Why does Bill Brady accept campaign donation on his website in Yen, Pound Sterling, Euro, Canadian and Austrailian Dollars in addition to US Dollars?
Isn’t there a law prohibiting that?
- siriusly - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 2:47 pm:
“What is the significance the reporter couldn’t get the quote from a Democrat more prominent than Schmidt?”
Not more prominent Carl, more relevant.
How could a guy who lost two statewide primary elections and has never been elected to anything still be so sought after by reporters? Harumph!
- Whatever - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:06 pm:
AP giving Schmidt credibility is like Ch. 9 News in Chicago making Jack Ryan a primary election night analyst. Geez!
- PalosParkBob - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:08 pm:
Perhaps the best representation of the pension problem is telling people how much taxpayers have to pay annually for current benefits out of the budget, and how much will need to be taken from them and their families, or from health care providers and educational programs, to continue to fund unnegotiated pension benefits in the future that provide no service or value to the people.
The fact is that increasing contributions from participants, ending early retirement benefits and ending end of career “sweeteners” as Hynes claimed he wanted to do on his website (right, LOL), ending “double dipping” to recieve government salaries while receiving government pensions, and increasing health care contributions from “the rich” pensioners, will be an absolute necessaryy if this problem is ever to be brought under control.
The only question is whether the GA can develop a spine and “just say no” to the powerful state employee unions to legislate in the public interest fro meaningful public pension reform.
- moron - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
“…Cullerton’s staff called this afternoon to insist that the closed-door “joint caucus” meeting today was both legal and constitutional … the General Assembly is not covered under the Open Meetings Act.”
sure, but then why didn’t Cullerton come out and say:
“Silly citizen, We are the Illinois Senate. We exempted ourselves from OMA.”
instead, he tried to plead OMA-ish issues in his defense, like it’s informal, it’s not a real meeting, it’s like a caucus, see, no votes will betaken
- Doug - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:09 pm:
Notice that most of the years on your graph that the public had the most trust in Government….there was an R in the White House….Just sayin’
- George - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:43 pm:
Doug -
Actually, you’re wrong. 64, ‘68, and ‘00 were Dem years.
It seems trust in government is at its peak just before a Republican takes over from a Democrat.
Its all downhill from there.
- George - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:45 pm:
And it looks like 6 of the 7 lowest growth years were in Republican administrations, too.
(you started the game)
- ZC - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:46 pm:
George,
According to the graph, those two points you raise -should- go together.
- Obamarama - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 4:10 pm:
Does anyone else find it odd that trust in government increased between 2000 and 2004? I mean, we had that guy, with the grin, in the office with round walls.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 4:13 pm:
terry savage, of the suntimes, did a nice write-up sans quinn administration spin about the pension debt issue the other day. she correctly pointed out that what the quinn administration recently hailed as a success was just more of the same nonsense that is why illinois is in such financial trouble: raiding.
i do hope voters pay better attention from now on because the budget is really the single most important issue as the budget is at the heart of the practically everything that goes on or doesn’t go on in this state.
c.r.e.a.m
cash rules everything around me
i know that budget and financial news is not considered sexy, and often difficult to condense into a 20 sec or less soundbite and have it all make sense, but the electronic media especially needs to focus on the state’s fiscal matters more, as this is how most people get their news.
- RobRoy - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 4:25 pm:
Barb Currie is barking up the wrong tree. There is plenty of information available to those who are interested and motivated. Capt. Illini is correct - change the primary system and voters will show up. Ironically, both Quinn and Edgar advocated for open primaries. Quinn decades ago in a Chicago appellet court I recall and Little Jim while Gov.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
Surprisedthe Trib did not spend some cash and send a moutpiece to court? Did they blow the budget on the fiove man Madigan smear squad non stories?
B TW should we not id Schmidt as two time statewide loser?
- T.J. - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 5:36 pm:
This jibes with Rod Blagojevich winning re-election by double digits and Scott Lee Cohen winning by a comfortable margin. I don’t get the point of third parties as long as Illinois is a one-party state.
- Peggy SO-IL - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 8:02 pm:
Capt. Illini and RobRoy: I didn’t think the primary was closed. Any one can vote in the primaries, but has to choose one ballot, not both. How do you explain the high voter turnout for the presidential year primary 2008? I expect that a small percentage of those IL voters are registered party members. We even allow people to register to vote on the same day; therefore we would allow people to choose party that same day as well.
Are you arguing that voters should be allowed to vote on more than one party’s ballot in a primary election? Are you saying people were turned away b/c they were not registered with a party? Requiring voters to choose one party’s ballot is not a closed primary election.
On Gian..ous’ poll on The One: Did he poll any one outside Cook County? If so, then I guess Joe Biden was right about the lack of intelligence of Americans, at least those in Illinois.
- track - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 8:20 pm:
How about that final Rasmussen poll. Hynes up by SIX points.
So much for robo call polls
Double sheesh.
- Quinn T. Sential - Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 9:58 pm:
{It’s akin to having enough money in your savings account to cover your mortgage if the bank called the entire loan at once.}
The banks are doing this in exponentially increasing numbers through an exercise called F-O-R-E-C-L-O-S-U-R-E
With thousands of them occurring each week. Whether or not you have the money in your savings account is not relevant, as soon as you demonstrate an inability to pay in a timely way, they take back the house they have been letting you use.