An absolutely horrible report for Giannoulias
Thursday, Jul 15, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Man, this is just awful…
Giannoulias, the Illinois treasurer, collected slightly more than $900,000 during the quarter that ended June 30, with the bulk of the money donated in June, said Kathleen Strand, a campaign spokeswoman.
The campaign for Representative Mark Kirk, the Republican Senate candidate, said July 1 that he raised $2.3 million during the second quarter. Kirk had about $3.9 million in the bank for his Senate race at the end of the quarter, according to his campaign.
Giannoulias, 34, had about $1 million in the bank at the end of the quarter, Strand said.
Strand said Giannoulias lagged behind in fundraising because of a self-imposed pledge to reject contributions from corporate political action committees and federal lobbyists.
More…
Giannoulias’ fund-raising was hobbled most of the last quarter because of a cloud over him because of the April failure of his family owned Broadway Bank. Giannoulias, the state treasurer, is also declining to accept donations from federal lobbyists and corporate political action committees. […]
This morning in Chicago, Giannoulias is hosting a press conference where he is expected to highlight Kirk’s opposition to Wall Street reform–a Senate vote is possible today on the overhaul bill–and on Kirk’s accepting donations from the financial services industry. Kirk voted against the House version of the main Wall Street reform bill.
Giannoulias won’t be able to sugar-coat this or excuse it. Kirk now has almost a four-to-one cash advantage over him, and there’s no sign that Kirk has slowed down. He raised more than Giannoulias in June, which should’ve been a prime fundraising period for the Democrat since Kirk was getting bashed over not telling the truth about his military record. Time’s running out to raise the big bucks necessary to compete in this state’s expensive media markets. His supporters better hope he has a plan.
* Related…
* Journal-Star: $30 million on a useless special US Senate election? No way
* The Next Republican Majority?
* How Many Senate Seats Will Democrats Lose in November?
* Don Wade & Roma Let Kirk Skirt The Issues
* Kirk: Overhaul gives government too much power
* Illinois’ Kirk a leader in House GOP green ratings; Emerson tops in Missouri
- shore - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:39 am:
1. He has to self-fund.
2. When you think that this guy was at obama for president hq and had access to all the major party donors for the last 3 years there, it’s even worse.
3. Kirk raised more than that when he was running for congress, SEVERAL times.
4. We can now move this race back to leans R.
- A.B. - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:45 am:
@ shore
You are right about self funding. But with the family bank gone, what other source of income does AG have to replace his personal fortune if he loses?
Let’s be honest, the RSCC is probably hammering their donors to dump money into this race at this point because there is now so much blood in the water.
I can’t believe I am saying this, but Kirk having a 2 to 1 or better financial lead at Labor Day is looking plausible. WOW!
Even being a huge Kirk supporter, I never would have dreamed this news.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:46 am:
Alexi would be crazy to self fund. He ain’t a Bloomberg or Corzine, and he’s still young. If you lose, you fight another day. Besides, Kirk has been real helpful in keeping it close.
- Reggie P - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:47 am:
Rutherford has as much money as Alexi.
- Cedra Crenshaw vs. The Machine - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:48 am:
How much money with the DSCC pump into Alexi’s campaign? Depends on how the polls look around Labor Day…with Reid in a tight race in Nevada, and a few other races out there, it will be intriguing to see how much the Dems value the symbolism of keeping Obama’s former seat.
- shore - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:51 am:
the dscc and nrsc are about even in terms of how much they have raised thus far.
the danger areas for kirk are the fact that obama hasn’t put the full push on here yet in terms of raising money for alexi, that the dnc is doing a lot better this year in fundraising than the rnc and that despite all of alexi’s problems there are still polls showing him leading the congressman which even as a kirk supporter I think shows he has A LOT of work to do.
- Brennan - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 9:53 am:
It only costs a meager $99 bucks to see the President these days.
Good luck Alexi.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:00 am:
Before Alexi supporters point out his high-mindedness as a reason for his fundraising doldrums:
“Strand said Giannoulias lagged behind in fundraising because of a self-imposed pledge to reject contributions from corporate political action committees and federal lobbyists.”
I would like to point out that Alexi IS taking money from trial lawyers (remember the Canada trip) and unions, so let’s call this quote a wash…
- A.B. - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:08 am:
Ag can make all the claims he wants about not taking money from special interests, the reality is that stand is not going to win this race for him, but currently being down 4 to 1 in money might.
The truth is that the majority of the public do not make their voting decisions on who is funding the campaigns, UNLESS they are funded by criminals.
- A 9th CD Democrat - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:27 am:
I expect that, when you go through the list of Alexi’s donors, you will find very few of David Hoffman’s donors. My guess is that they are sitting out the race right now and may well never get into this race
- give me liberty - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:27 am:
Gee Rich, that must have ruined your day. Well you can always hope Kirk does some more embellishing about his military career so you can keep beating that dead horse.
- (618) Democrat - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:33 am:
As I look at the overall ebb and flow of this election cycle, I am happy with the $900,000 raised, mostly in June.
Now that Alexi is up in the polls, Kirk’s lying problem that he can’t seem to stop doing, and President Obama is from Illinois and hasn’t weighed in yet I look for the contributions to pick up.
Many of the Kirk supporters were telling us on this blog in Febuary,March, April and May that an election being held in November was already over. I have been around long enough to know that is never the case.
The Kirk fans on here remind me of Cub fans. The Cubs defeat the Cardinals early on in the season, the Cub fans get all up and happy and rub it in, but you never hear much from them in October.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:41 am:
One could always hope Kirk will keep screwing up. Without the national funding web bringing in millions this year, and his own level of personal problems still being exposed, Giannoulais still has a good chance because this is Illinois.
But I wouldn’t “bank” on it!
This report is showing bad news for a reason, pretending everything will be turned around within the next few months is unwise.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:42 am:
(618) Democrat - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:33 am:
“Now that Alexi is up in the polls…”
What polls are you reading?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/il/illinois_senate_giannoulias_vs_kirk-1092.html
- (618) Democrat - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:50 am:
@cincy 10:33
Rasmussen, the last poll taken. It is on the link you provided. lol
- Wumpus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:51 am:
The big problem is that Ali G is MIA. Kirk is screwing up, but at least he is talking to the media and being seen
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 10:52 am:
- What polls are you reading? -
Well, I’m guessing since he said “now” it would be the most recent poll from your link: Rasmussen.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 11:02 am:
Whoa, since when do liberals embrace Rasmussen polling. Just a week ago, several posters on this board slammed Rasmussen as biased and unreliable. That’s why I follow RCP until just before the election where Rasmussen’s methodology tends to provide great insights into public sentiment.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 11:14 am:
Cincinnatus - I’m not sure what the point of your last statement is. The latest poll is Rasmussen, and it has Alexi leading. RCP reflects this as well. This has nothing to do with “several posters on this board”, just you trying to prove someone wrong when you instead proved them right.
- A Naughty Moose - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 11:30 am:
Uh, the problem with Rasmussen is its house effect favors the GOP. So a Rasmussen result showing Giannoulias tied or slightly ahead would suggest he is legitimately in the lead.
- Son of Ben - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 12:41 pm:
It’ this simple:
1) The overwhelming majority of voters believe the economy is the most important issue right now.
2) The conventional wisdom is that Alexi is not strong on the economy issue because he helped mismanage Broadway Bank.
3) Now, he’s having trouble raising money and his opponent has four times as much.
Connect the dots.
- dave - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 12:45 pm:
Whoa, since when do liberals embrace Rasmussen polling.
Cinci… I swear, you distort everything possible.
Rasmussen is fine to look at, as long as you know and acknowledge that Rasmussen has had a very clear bias towards Republicans in recent years. This probably isn’t an intentional bias, but instead a product of their sampling.
- 10th Indy - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 12:51 pm:
Yikes! Terrible numbers, a more than 100% burn rate, and only 3 months left to close a 4-1 funding gap - the Alexi campaign is in deep trouble.
- Team Sleep - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 1:03 pm:
Let’s not sugarcoat either candidate right now. Kirk has a serious truth problem, and Alexi has a serious fundraising problem. If Kirk hadn’t lied so profusely and if Illinois weren’t still such a “blue” state in terms of voter registration, his massive cash advantage would surely have brought him several polling points above Alexi.
There’s no way Alexi can self-fund - at least not enough to win. I remember reading a recent article (Bloomberg, perhaps?) which noted Alexi’s net worth as under $10 million. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, Peter Fitzgerald’s net worth was nearly $100 million (cash and stock shares) when he won the 1998 general election. When one considers the increased cost of everything - TV ads, staffer pay and benefits, gas, signs/propaganda and even direct mail - from 1998 to 2010, it simply isn’t an option. I’m sure his family can help, but do they want to use the remainder of the family fortune on this?
- Responsa - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 1:05 pm:
A lot of it is the economic environment I think. Nearly everybody is conserving their money these days and that includes individual donors who are choosing more carefully how they spend. Putting down good money on an iffy horse with known issues is not seen as a good investment in politics any more than it is at the race track. Also, the emphasis on donors and pay-to-play at the Blago trial may be leading a few normally larger donors and players to conclude that it might be a good idea to just sit this election out until the dust settles. Especially when so many of the candidates are uninspiring.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 1:20 pm:
Kirk’s “serious truth problem” will only be a major issue if Alexi can drive the point home near election day. Barring any further revelations about Kirk that earns free media, Alexi will have to do it with paid advertising. As Team Sleep points out, there are a number of things that must be paid for just to keep a campaign open for business. Alexi’s poor fundraising to date may keep out-of-state contributions, including those from the DNC and the DSCC down, those organizations only pony up money for candidates that can also help themselves. Unless Alexi puts in a couple of months of significant fundraising, his prospects dim with each passing day.
- Team America - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 2:51 pm:
=== …his massive cash advantage would surely have brought him several polling points above Alexi. ===
@ Team Sleep, I don’t quite follow. Generally, the people getting polled don’t vote one way or the other based on how a candidate is doing on fundraising… only wonks like us pay attention, at least at this stage. The cash advantage doesn’t kick in until it’s spent… and I’m not sure that Kirk has outspent Alexi to a huge degree, at least not in a similar percentage to his overall fundraising advantage. When Kirk starts to spend the dough on downstate carpet-bomb commercials after Labor Day, that’s when the numbers ought to start showing a Kirk pull-away.
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 3:44 pm:
Huge difference. Great job! Having said that, I have to agree with TA’s 2:51. Furthermore, it’s probably a good thing that generally “wonks” pay attention to this stuff.
While it is a good measure of how well someone’s doing, I think that with the economy the way it is, John and Jane Q. Public probably don’t want to be reminded of how much money is required to run for office today.
Again, though, great job raking in the dollars Team Kirk during a tough quarter!
- A.B. - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 4:56 pm:
To support the issue of “wonks” paying attention to fund raising numbers, this is an additional factor is why AG’s foolish no PAC money play isn’t much of a help. The public just doesn’t care. As long as Blago, Rezko and G. Ryan aren’t funding the run, they simply don’t understand or care. The whole “beholden to the special interests” talking point is crap. The independent voter doesn’t actually think that any elected official is clean from the sway of special interest groups.
- Cincinnatus - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 5:41 pm:
Is this Kirk problem a problem of all politicians who serve(d) in the Navy?
http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM152_comcast_eci_071510.pdf
Sure hope not.
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 15, 10 @ 11:54 pm:
=Gee Rich, that must have ruined your day.=
Not to speak on behalf of the others, but…
“Bite us, Liberty”!!!
- The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Friday, Jul 16, 10 @ 12:03 am:
Sorry, that should have been:
Not to speak on behalf of the others, but…
“Bite us, ‘Liberty’!!!”
(See what I did there?)