* The Hill has released a new poll for the 10th Congressional District which tracks fairly well with the Democrats’ own released polling. Democrat Dan Seals leads Republican Bob Dold in the open seat contest by twelve points, 49-37…
Voters are split along party lines, with independents slightly favoring Seals, 42 percent to Dold’s 33. Seals also wins with male and female voters and across all age groups.
President Obama easily carried this district with 61 percent in 2008, and he gets a high approval rating from voters: Fifty-six percent say he’s doing a good job. That could help Seals, as 65 percent say the president is an important factor in their vote.
Kirk’s district has been a longtime Democratic target, and Seals came within 6 percent of beating him in 2006 and 2008. At one point, Seals was reported to be under consideration for appointment to Obama’s Senate seat, a spot that ultimately went to Roland Burris (D).
The NRCC has spent around $242,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $271,000.
Methodology…
The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
They polled over six days? Odd, that. Also, they haven’t posted crosstabs for this one yet. Not sure why.
…Adding… A commenter found some limited crosstabs. Click here. Thanks much.
The spots are significant because they show that labor is carefully picking its races this year. Unions readily admit they are going to be outspent by conservative third party groups, but they still plan to play a large role in selected races.
It is also important to note that SEIU is going in for Hare, who represents a district that President Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote. Hare wasn’t considered highly vulnerable until about a month ago, when Republican polls showed his race with Schilling to be much tighter than anticipated. The DCCC consequently reserved air time in Hare’s district.
The ad will air in the Quad Cities area of Illinois for a week starting today. The SEIU is spending more than $317K on airing the ads.
“150,000. That’s how many Illinois jobs have been lost to unfair trade deals,” the ad says. “But Bobby Schilling supports a new free trade deal with Korea. And Schilling says he’d support even more free trade deals.”
* Hare’s Republican opponent Bobby Schilling also has a new TV ad called “Phil Hare was Here.” Rate it…
* This has to be one of the stranger political stories of the year. Two men of advanced age get into a physical tussle over the placement of a Bob Dold sign in Wilmette, of all towns…
It began at about 2 p.m. on Oct. 4 in the 1300 block of Sheridan Road, along the sidewalk of a vacant property just south of Langdon Park. An 85-year-old man with a walker apparently pulled two political yard-signs out of the ground and tossed them aside.
The property’s owner lives in the house next door – a 60-year-old woman and her 92-year-old father. The woman’s father began picking up the signs when the 85-year-old started yelling at him, according to a police report.
The woman came to her father’s defense, but when she tried to plant one of the signs back in the ground, the 85-year-old grabbed it. During the ensuing tug-of-war, the man allegedly hit the woman in the side of the head and shoulder. Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker, police said.
When police arrived, they offered to take the man to the hospital after he complained of a sore hip, but he refused. The man claimed the yard signs were on public property, but when a police officer disagreed, the man called him, “an idiot and a liar,” according to the police report.
“Then he lost his grip on the sign, and fell backwards over his walker.” People. Please. Relax a bit out there.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:40 am:
The gift of Dold outweighs the gift of Seals in this moderate district where anything that smacks of tea party is not well received. His campaign has a strong whiff of secretism to it which doesn’t help, and Seals is well known after six years of campaigning! Dold could still win with the enthusiasm gap, but methinks Susan Coulson would be fairing better.
All of the legislative races in the 10th are leaning GOP or the Democrats are at least worried and Seals is up by 12 points? 4.9% moe? I live here and I just don’t see the evidence of the district going contrary to the national mood.
It’s not about going against the national mood, its a local race involving a well known candidate who nearly won twice against an entrenched incumbent versus a newcomer
With redistricting coming before the 2012 election, it seems unlikely a Republican could defend this seat unless it was someone who was a gifted campaigner and acceptable to liberal suburbanites.
Is Bob Dold a gifted campaigner? He’s a strong campaigner in Republican primaries, but he seems in the center of the bell curve in the general election. He’s not a Nazi re-enactor. He’s not cutting commercials saying he’s not a witch. But he doesn’t seem like a guy that could pick the Dems’ pocket.
Dold served his purpose. He forced the Dems to allocate resources in IL-10 that would have been deployed elsewhere if a truly weak candidate emerged.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:54 am:
That “Dold with a D not an E” ad (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7MPn1Qh_AI) is ridiculous. Is that jingle supposed to be catchy?
Unless the Hill has some inside scoop, the only suggestion I ever saw that zero-accomplishment, resume-embellisher Seals was in the running for the Senate appointment came from an offhand comment by Zorn, which was probably wishful thinking on his part. While Seals was and continues to be an empty suit, based on how the Senate appointment ended up, even I have to admit that might have been a better result.
This poll may not look too good for Dold, but Seals had a five-year head-start, and there’s still a few weeks left of heavy campaigning. Interesting that Dold raised >$800K this quarter and we have not yet seen numbers from Seals. Far from over.
SEIU’s ad was okay, but I thought Illinois was one of the more union-friendly states?! Or am I wrong?!
Bobby’s own ad was great. The quality of his ads have been very good.
An argument over a sign?! Someone using a walker falling down after said argument over a sign?! When I posted yesterday that my head was going to explode, I was only half-joking.
Wow. Team America doesn’t like resume embellishers. He must hate the guy who currently holds that seat.
Actually, comments like TA’s are one of the reasons that a lot of people hate politics. Is resume embellishing bad or not? If you hate it when one does it, you need to hate them all. That doesn’t happen often though. Issues don’t matter. Party matters.
A Democrat poll in a district the Dems are desperate to win is not entirely reliable. It is also an outlier from any data that the campaigns have leaked out. Could be that the Seals campaign needs a shot in the arm given the fact that Seals has not been able to get any positive movement.
Also going to be interesting to see Seals’ $$ for the last quarter. Dold is over 800K. If Seals isn’t close in $$ he’s going to have a big problem keep up on TV the last three weeks. The FLOTUS fundraiser won’t net Seals huge bucks since the money has to be shared with other dems.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
For $800K I hope Dold can afford a pro media outfit. Seriously, watch that ad. It’s like a Tea Party version of “Go Cubs Go.”
Compelling lyrics: cause government spending’s gettin out of control/
and it’s puttin our kids in a debt-ridden hole/
we needa voice in DC who will listen to us/
cause the people there now are throwin us under the bus
I love the GOP hack spin on the poll, the Hill is not a Democratic poll, of the polls they released 8/10 had Republicans winning and last weeks included the one that showed Halvorson way down.
Both try the same message, but Hare is campaigning like it is 2008, not 2010. Schilling’s ad is totally 2010.
Hare’s ad is nothing new. Then he throws in Korea. His ad is based on a Democrat stereotype of a Republican. The language is not new. It does not address reality. Instead it invokes fear.
Schiiling’s visuals are great. He uses facts about today’s reality. He makes the issue about what Hare DID as a congressman, while Hare is trying to make an issue over what MIGHT BE if Schilling is elected. There is no fear. Just an acknowledgement that Hare failed.
Hare’s ad is a D.
Schilling’s ad is an A.
Same subject. Different presentations. Different campaigns. Different campaign years.
I am sure “outsourcing American jobs” is polling off the charts in this election. Hare’s ad is accurate, effective and rates a B+. Schilling’s ad is misleading, but effective and also rates a B+. The irony is that every election season democrats run on closing “tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs,” then after the election, they do nothing about it…NADA…no follow through. Cong. Hare has actually tried to make changes, but corporate democrats like Rahm Emanuel never put any muscle behind the legislative agenda. The question this election is whether voters will trust democrats to actually deliver what they promise.
Rich, I agree that a 6 day time frame for the Seals/Dold congressional poll seems strange, especially since those dates include a weekend, which is a notoriously unreliable time to conduct a poll. And the MOE seems high at 4.9%. Wonder how accurate it is??
As a resident of the 10th district, my absentee ballot has already been submitted, so the last 3 weeks of TV ads won’t change a thing…with a district including many corporate executives who travel (and therefore are never sure if they will be in town on voting day), I wonder how many others have done the same?
Gee I wonder who’s money SEIU is using to spend money on these ads? Oh yeah, I have NO LOVE WHATSOEVER for this group who thought it was okay to bus several hundred people to a bank executive’s front yard to terrorize and hold a teenager inside the house hostage (this was widely reported).
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Re the 10th district, it’s not a single poll that is convincing, it is the trend. There has not been a single poll that shows Dold in the lead going back to that cold, dark, day back in Feb. I am also unconvinced that there is this hidden “wave” of unpollable republican voters in the 10th. I have to believe that if there was a building wave for enthusiasm, there would be a some evidence of it in the polling data. As it is, the crosstabs on The Hill poll show basically every Dem voting for Seals, every Repub voting for Dold, and Seals winning the middle. No wave to be seen.
- Jake from Elwood - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Liked the visuals on the Schilling ad. Something a little different to look at than most campaign ads. The SEIU ad was far less visually stimulating. Is there a reason why Hare’s name wasn’t mentioned in the SEIU ad? It must be due to some campaign finance law. I don’t understand attack ads that do not simultaneously inform the voter who the “preferred” candidate for office is. Both parties have used this tactic and I question the merit of it.
I expected Dold to be a better candidate than he has been. Seals is the same campaigner and his campaign is only slightly more organized than it was in 2008. Those two factors appear to be enough.
Congratulations to Dan Seals, I don’t remember you ever leading an October poll before.
The Seals lead should also help the Dem legislative candidates in that area. It’s also a sign of hope I think for Dems that even though there will be huge losses, this is not 1994 part deux.
I live in the 10th Con. District, and I think that Dold will barely win, with 51%. The district has had republican congressmen since 1980, and the majority of the district’s county commissioners are Republicans. In my area, Northfield and Glenview, I’ve seen about five times as many Dold signs as Seals signs.
I find curious the internals of this poll. Look at the composition of the electorate in the 10th. Now sure, its an affluent district, so it is to be expected that the turnout, regardless of party affiliation, will be high. But looking at an 11% advantage in registration in favor of the Dems makes me skeptical. I think at most that advantage, in this, the year where the GOP is seeing record enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to this poll’s results. I see maybe a 4% lead for Seals at the moment. The ad Dole is running is to engage those voters who have not heard of him, which at the moment is more than 30% of the poll’s electorate. There is plenty of time for this race to close, and if the turnout amongst GOP voters is where it seems to be trending in the GOP’s direction, Dold will win, maybe with 52%+ of the vote. He has a better favorability ratio with the important 10th Indies that have historically decided where these races move.
- dumb ol' country boy - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 8:22 pm:
Do you believe the average Joe cares about what a big union is saying about a canidate? I know if I were running I don’t think I would want an add ran by SEIU or any union. Most people thinkg unions are full of over paid whinners. Maybe its just me. Hare ad boring… Not alot in it. I think Schilling’s ad throws out what is perceived to be facts, which makes it more convincing…
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 9:41 pm:
Dold wasn’t even particularly effective in the primary. He was the anti-Coulson. That plus Friedman grabbing a few thousand of Coulson’s potential votes - health care professionals and republican Jews - resulted in a win in the primary. But none of that led to Dold becoming an inspired general election candidate.
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 9:43 pm:
Oh, and don’t forget Dick Green being revealed as a shut-in. In the end, Dold was the consolation prize after Kirk decided to run for Senate.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:40 am:
The gift of Dold outweighs the gift of Seals in this moderate district where anything that smacks of tea party is not well received. His campaign has a strong whiff of secretism to it which doesn’t help, and Seals is well known after six years of campaigning! Dold could still win with the enthusiasm gap, but methinks Susan Coulson would be fairing better.
- 10thvoter - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:42 am:
All of the legislative races in the 10th are leaning GOP or the Democrats are at least worried and Seals is up by 12 points? 4.9% moe? I live here and I just don’t see the evidence of the district going contrary to the national mood.
- dfgfff - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:47 am:
tabs: http://thehill.com/images/polls/week2/ill10.pdf
- EazyTurner - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:47 am:
It’s not about going against the national mood, its a local race involving a well known candidate who nearly won twice against an entrenched incumbent versus a newcomer
- Bill - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:53 am:
Who’s Susan Coulson?
- Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:54 am:
With redistricting coming before the 2012 election, it seems unlikely a Republican could defend this seat unless it was someone who was a gifted campaigner and acceptable to liberal suburbanites.
Is Bob Dold a gifted campaigner? He’s a strong campaigner in Republican primaries, but he seems in the center of the bell curve in the general election. He’s not a Nazi re-enactor. He’s not cutting commercials saying he’s not a witch. But he doesn’t seem like a guy that could pick the Dems’ pocket.
Dold served his purpose. He forced the Dems to allocate resources in IL-10 that would have been deployed elsewhere if a truly weak candidate emerged.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:54 am:
That “Dold with a D not an E” ad (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7MPn1Qh_AI) is ridiculous. Is that jingle supposed to be catchy?
- Team America - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:54 am:
Unless the Hill has some inside scoop, the only suggestion I ever saw that zero-accomplishment, resume-embellisher Seals was in the running for the Senate appointment came from an offhand comment by Zorn, which was probably wishful thinking on his part. While Seals was and continues to be an empty suit, based on how the Senate appointment ended up, even I have to admit that might have been a better result.
This poll may not look too good for Dold, but Seals had a five-year head-start, and there’s still a few weeks left of heavy campaigning. Interesting that Dold raised >$800K this quarter and we have not yet seen numbers from Seals. Far from over.
- 17th Voter - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:55 am:
Schilling ad is an 8 out of ten. It should have had people who had lost their jobs over the past 10 years or so. Would have been more effective
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:57 am:
SEIU’s ad was okay, but I thought Illinois was one of the more union-friendly states?! Or am I wrong?!
Bobby’s own ad was great. The quality of his ads have been very good.
An argument over a sign?! Someone using a walker falling down after said argument over a sign?! When I posted yesterday that my head was going to explode, I was only half-joking.
- Team America - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:58 am:
Carl has some good points but it’s not much consolation for 10th Dist. Republicans.
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 11:59 am:
Wow. Team America doesn’t like resume embellishers. He must hate the guy who currently holds that seat.
Actually, comments like TA’s are one of the reasons that a lot of people hate politics. Is resume embellishing bad or not? If you hate it when one does it, you need to hate them all. That doesn’t happen often though. Issues don’t matter. Party matters.
- Adam Smith - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
A Democrat poll in a district the Dems are desperate to win is not entirely reliable. It is also an outlier from any data that the campaigns have leaked out. Could be that the Seals campaign needs a shot in the arm given the fact that Seals has not been able to get any positive movement.
Also going to be interesting to see Seals’ $$ for the last quarter. Dold is over 800K. If Seals isn’t close in $$ he’s going to have a big problem keep up on TV the last three weeks. The FLOTUS fundraiser won’t net Seals huge bucks since the money has to be shared with other dems.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
For $800K I hope Dold can afford a pro media outfit. Seriously, watch that ad. It’s like a Tea Party version of “Go Cubs Go.”
Compelling lyrics:
cause government spending’s gettin out of control/
and it’s puttin our kids in a debt-ridden hole/
we needa voice in DC who will listen to us/
cause the people there now are throwin us under the bus
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:23 pm:
AS, this is not a “Democrat poll.” Remove your tinfoil hat, pleaes.
- dfgfff - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
I love the GOP hack spin on the poll, the Hill is not a Democratic poll, of the polls they released 8/10 had Republicans winning and last weeks included the one that showed Halvorson way down.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:40 pm:
The Hare/Schilling dueling ad posting is awesome.
Both try the same message, but Hare is campaigning like it is 2008, not 2010. Schilling’s ad is totally 2010.
Hare’s ad is nothing new. Then he throws in Korea. His ad is based on a Democrat stereotype of a Republican. The language is not new. It does not address reality. Instead it invokes fear.
Schiiling’s visuals are great. He uses facts about today’s reality. He makes the issue about what Hare DID as a congressman, while Hare is trying to make an issue over what MIGHT BE if Schilling is elected. There is no fear. Just an acknowledgement that Hare failed.
Hare’s ad is a D.
Schilling’s ad is an A.
Same subject. Different presentations. Different campaigns. Different campaign years.
Hare is so out of touch even as a campaigner.
- Louis Howe - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:47 pm:
I am sure “outsourcing American jobs” is polling off the charts in this election. Hare’s ad is accurate, effective and rates a B+. Schilling’s ad is misleading, but effective and also rates a B+. The irony is that every election season democrats run on closing “tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs,” then after the election, they do nothing about it…NADA…no follow through. Cong. Hare has actually tried to make changes, but corporate democrats like Rahm Emanuel never put any muscle behind the legislative agenda. The question this election is whether voters will trust democrats to actually deliver what they promise.
- Whatever - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 12:56 pm:
Rich, I agree that a 6 day time frame for the Seals/Dold congressional poll seems strange, especially since those dates include a weekend, which is a notoriously unreliable time to conduct a poll. And the MOE seems high at 4.9%. Wonder how accurate it is??
- 10th Voter - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:10 pm:
As a resident of the 10th district, my absentee ballot has already been submitted, so the last 3 weeks of TV ads won’t change a thing…with a district including many corporate executives who travel (and therefore are never sure if they will be in town on voting day), I wonder how many others have done the same?
- movin - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:10 pm:
Re: “man falls over walker” I think viagra is making our old billy goats a little agro.
- Segatari - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:28 pm:
Gee I wonder who’s money SEIU is using to spend money on these ads? Oh yeah, I have NO LOVE WHATSOEVER for this group who thought it was okay to bus several hundred people to a bank executive’s front yard to terrorize and hold a teenager inside the house hostage (this was widely reported).
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Re the 10th district, it’s not a single poll that is convincing, it is the trend. There has not been a single poll that shows Dold in the lead going back to that cold, dark, day back in Feb. I am also unconvinced that there is this hidden “wave” of unpollable republican voters in the 10th. I have to believe that if there was a building wave for enthusiasm, there would be a some evidence of it in the polling data. As it is, the crosstabs on The Hill poll show basically every Dem voting for Seals, every Repub voting for Dold, and Seals winning the middle. No wave to be seen.
- Jake from Elwood - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Liked the visuals on the Schilling ad. Something a little different to look at than most campaign ads. The SEIU ad was far less visually stimulating. Is there a reason why Hare’s name wasn’t mentioned in the SEIU ad? It must be due to some campaign finance law. I don’t understand attack ads that do not simultaneously inform the voter who the “preferred” candidate for office is. Both parties have used this tactic and I question the merit of it.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
Life on the mean streets of Wilmette is a variation of the Hobbesian Existence: Nasty, brutish and extremely long.
–but Hare is campaigning like it is 2008, not 2010. Schilling’s ad is totally 2010.–
What does that mean, if anything? Are you looking for the “Vogue” fashion blog?
- Rayne of Terror - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 2:26 pm:
I received a robo-call from President Obama today on behalf of Debbie Halvorson. There wasn’t any spark to it. Obama sounded tired, bored, and rote.
- ZC - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
Third time’s the charm for Seals. And I predict second time will be the charm for Dan Biss.
- Siriusly - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 2:43 pm:
I expected Dold to be a better candidate than he has been. Seals is the same campaigner and his campaign is only slightly more organized than it was in 2008. Those two factors appear to be enough.
Congratulations to Dan Seals, I don’t remember you ever leading an October poll before.
- Siriusly - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 2:45 pm:
The Seals lead should also help the Dem legislative candidates in that area. It’s also a sign of hope I think for Dems that even though there will be huge losses, this is not 1994 part deux.
- Conservative Veteran - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 3:23 pm:
I live in the 10th Con. District, and I think that Dold will barely win, with 51%. The district has had republican congressmen since 1980, and the majority of the district’s county commissioners are Republicans. In my area, Northfield and Glenview, I’ve seen about five times as many Dold signs as Seals signs.
- Siriusly - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 3:42 pm:
Rich heard anything about the Bond / Schmidt race? Just curious.
The one cross tab that looked funny to me in that Hill 10th CD poll was the turn out question. Everyone polled said they planned to vote.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 3:47 pm:
Yes, Siriusly. Subscribe.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 6:51 pm:
I find curious the internals of this poll. Look at the composition of the electorate in the 10th. Now sure, its an affluent district, so it is to be expected that the turnout, regardless of party affiliation, will be high. But looking at an 11% advantage in registration in favor of the Dems makes me skeptical. I think at most that advantage, in this, the year where the GOP is seeing record enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to this poll’s results. I see maybe a 4% lead for Seals at the moment. The ad Dole is running is to engage those voters who have not heard of him, which at the moment is more than 30% of the poll’s electorate. There is plenty of time for this race to close, and if the turnout amongst GOP voters is where it seems to be trending in the GOP’s direction, Dold will win, maybe with 52%+ of the vote. He has a better favorability ratio with the important 10th Indies that have historically decided where these races move.
- dumb ol' country boy - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 8:22 pm:
Do you believe the average Joe cares about what a big union is saying about a canidate? I know if I were running I don’t think I would want an add ran by SEIU or any union. Most people thinkg unions are full of over paid whinners. Maybe its just me. Hare ad boring… Not alot in it. I think Schilling’s ad throws out what is perceived to be facts, which makes it more convincing…
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 9:41 pm:
Dold wasn’t even particularly effective in the primary. He was the anti-Coulson. That plus Friedman grabbing a few thousand of Coulson’s potential votes - health care professionals and republican Jews - resulted in a win in the primary. But none of that led to Dold becoming an inspired general election candidate.
- Lifelong Resident of the 10th - Wednesday, Oct 13, 10 @ 9:43 pm:
Oh, and don’t forget Dick Green being revealed as a shut-in. In the end, Dold was the consolation prize after Kirk decided to run for Senate.