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*** UPDATED x2 - Illinois loses a seat *** Apportionment Day is upon us

Tuesday, Dec 21, 2010

* It’s Apportionment Day

December 21st at 11:00am eastern time, the Census Bureau will release the first official data from the 2010 census–the total U.S. population and the population for each state. For redistricting geeks, this is like Christmas Eve to the 10th power (since it only happens once a decade). The Secretary of Commerce, along with the Director of the Census Bureau, will hold a press conference at the National Press Club to release the numbers. These numbers will tell states how many seats they get in the U.S. House of Representatives for the next ten years. Those numbers also correlate to the total electoral college votes each state gets for President.

The Bureau will update their website simultaneously as they release the new data in DC. It’s a cool website that you should check out. The website has an interactive, state-by-state map that allows you to looks at historic population trends by state back to 1900. You can access the snazzy population widget here: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data

If you would like to listen to the Bureau’s announcement live, they will be streaming it on the Internet here: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=74725

It is widely expeceted, based on projections and estimates data, that southern and western states will be the big winners [today] at the expense of great lakes and northeastern states.

The apportionment data will be here. Illinois has gained congressional seats just once in the past hundred years: 2 seats in 1910. We’ve lost seats after six apportionments, and broke even after three. We’re expecting to lose another seat this year.

* From the AP

Census data so far suggests new Hispanic-dominated districts could emerge, particularly with growth in some Chicago area neighborhoods. States are required under the Voting Rights Act to respect the interests of minority voting blocs.

Other scenarios include a lost seat in downstate Illinois, which has lost population.

“It could be good news for Democrats,” said U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, who lost a former Democratic stronghold to tea party-backed GOP challenger Bobby Schilling in November, but could benefit from redrawn lines if he decides to run again in 2012.

Pat Brady, chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, warned that the GOP would push back if the Democrats in Springfield become too “heavy handed” and don’t cooperate in creating new congressional and legislative districts that are competitive for both sides.

* 10:36 am - Illinois was not one of the five states with the slowest growth. New York and Michigan were included in that list. From the Washington Post’s Twitter page

The West is now more populous than midwest for 1st time

A U.S. House district, on average will be 710,767 residents. Up from 646,000 in 2000.

The apportionment results are in. 8 states gained seats in the House of Representatives. 10 states lost seats.

NE grew 3.2 percent; Midwest 3.9 percent; south 14.3 percent and west grew 13.8 percent.

*** 10:46 am *** Illinois has lost a seat. Here is the regional map. Orange means the state lost at least one seat. Grey means no change. Blue indicates seat gains…

* The initial estimate had Illinois missing the cutoff for staying even on its congressional seats by just 75,046 residents.

* National map

*** UPDATE 2 *** David Weigel

This is about as bad as it could get for Democrats, and as good as it could get for Republicans. The next GOP presidential candidate gets six free electoral votes from South Carolina, Texas, Utah. The Democratic caucus in the House is about to see internal warfare in the rust belt and northeast, as their members are forced into Thunderdome battle for the diminished number of seats.

Only in Illinois, I think, will the Democrats be able to create a map that hurts the GOP’s newly elected members and takes back a seat or two.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

77 Comments
  1. - Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 9:55 am:

    QOTD:

    If the person who is to lose their congressional seat were to be chosen in a process of elimination game similar to “Survivor”, who would you vote off of the island and why?


  2. - Mex Girl - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:02 am:

    My household never received the Census. I contacted a Census worker and was told that someone would be at our door then. No one ever showed up. We are a Mexican family, living in a neighborhood with many ethnic backgrounds. Wonder who else on my block weren’t counted in the Census.


  3. - cassandra - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:12 am:

    So will the Quinn and the Democrats’ plan for (allegedly) a two point permanent personal income tax increase in Illinois receive Republican support in a couple of weeks…or will it be part of the redistricting negotiations later in 2011. Perhaps the great Democratic raid on middle class pocketbooks won’t happen as soon as Quinn and the Dems are hoping. Hard to believe that the Republicans would roll over on what is likely to be a controversial income tax increase and go into redistricting negotiations with….nothing?

    On the other hand, for politicians, it’s all about themselves. If Quinn offers a departing Republican one of those six figure, “low-stress” lifetime state jobs with great health benefits and a nice defined benefit pension–could he/she refuse? It’s not like most could do as well on the market.


  4. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s official - -1


  5. - justbabs - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:28 am:

    Cin - I think it’s still showing the 2000 numbers.


  6. - Pleading the fifth - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:33 am:

    The Census Director said Illinois lost a seat, but haven’t confirmed if it was more than one.


  7. - reformer - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:37 am:

    cassandra: The GOP will get reform of workers comp, Medicaid and education, which is what three quickie committees are working on.

    Brady is whistling past the graveyard if he expect the Democrats to craft competitive districts, as opposed to as many Dem-leaning districts as possible and as few GOP-leaning. Where Republicans are in charge of redistricting, they fail to exhibit the fairness Brady expects from Democrats.


  8. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:43 am:

    - justbabs - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:28 am:

    Cin - I think it’s still showing the 2000 numbers.

    Now it is, no change.


  9. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:44 am:

    Damn,

    The map is “live” but the numbers ALL read zero. Stupid Census site, stupid Cincinnatus.


  10. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:46 am:

    The map ain’t alive, but here is a link to the data:

    http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/apportionment-data-text.php

    Illinois - -1


  11. - Vox Populi - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:49 am:

    Dear Bobby Schilling: Don’t bother unpacking. It’ll only be a few months before Aaron Schock sends you back to the pizza business.


  12. - shore - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:51 am:

    Republican areas of the country grew, democrat areas did not. Shock?


  13. - Leroy - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:52 am:

    Amazing…you’d think Illinois with its low tax rate, small government, pro-business sentiment, great benefits, and excellent public education system would have *gained* big, not lost.

    Oh where have you gone, the Illinois of Yellow Dog Democrat?

    (insert still-and-outhouse jokes about the south here)


  14. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 10:54 am:

    ===Republican areas of the country grew, democrat areas did not.===

    All states grew. Some faster than others. And Washington, Florida, Nevada and others are not strictly Republican states.


  15. - Justice - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:02 am:

    States lose in the population race for lots of reasons: Jobs, weather, education, taxes. Not necessarily in that order.

    Perhaps our legislature can work on all of these….especially the weather as the likelihood of them changing that appears to be better than their likelihood or demonstrated ability to change any of the others.


  16. - western illinois - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:09 am:

    They were republican states but were they Republican populations?Will DOJ Demand Hispanic districts in Texas. Texas Hispanics are more of a swing vote.
    I see NJ M NY and IL as Dem losers
    WA is a dem winner
    Swing Winners are NV and FL
    Swing losers are MO IA MI PA OH
    GOP loser LA The rest are GOP wins . I am speaking of electoral college. As for individual seats I predict only one thing outside Illinois -a lot of litigation
    In Illinois I have a question for teh Republicans”What exactly are you going to do?”


  17. - Wondering - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:09 am:

    Will there be a website for the citizens of Illinois to try their hand and making districts for Congress, State Rep., State Senate, maybe county boards?


  18. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:11 am:

    Rich,

    Utah and S.C. both lost population. Illinois population increased 60k for an 8.4% gain, below the national average of 9.7%.


  19. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:13 am:

    ===Utah and S.C. both lost population===

    They both gained congressional districts, so where are you seeing that data?


  20. - too obvious - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:14 am:

    Pat Brady can go jump in the lake. He doesn’t even let his own Republican voters vote in the state party he chairs. He can save us all the crocodile tears. No reason Democrat leaders shouldn’t be as selfish as the Republican leaders.


  21. - Bluefish - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:15 am:

    Just let Prof./Rep. Mike Fortner draw the new map. Almost every district will be competitive (ala his Ohio concept).


  22. - 'Dale to HPark - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:15 am:

    Also interesting that a lot of the states that did the most to create and then were hardest hit by the housing bubble gained seats. I’d still like to see some sort of correlation/map that shows housing prices on top of growth… something along those lines.

    I’m sure social scientists/policy people will be interested to see how Texas handles its continued growth.

    It’s a shame that all this will come down to politics, inexcusable that hacks make the maps imo.


  23. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:22 am:

    - ‘Dale to HPark - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:15 am:

    “It’s a shame that all this will come down to politics, inexcusable that hacks make the maps imo.”

    - Bluefish - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:15 am:

    “Just let Prof./Rep. Mike Fortner draw the new map.”

    Fortner’s work should be copied by every state in the union. I suggest that the Iowa and Ohio Plans are the future. I would love to see a push by all of us (especially among the CapFax poobahs) to go with this approach at all levels of government in the state.

    Simply stated, Fortner has developed a methodology that uses population, geography and respects existing political boarders (think town lines, county lines, etc.) to draw congressional and state districts. Very fair, compact districts result. If this was at least the starting point for Illinois redistricting, there would be less public outcry and none of those 300 mile long 1 mile wide districts.


  24. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:23 am:

    ===and respects existing political boarders (think town lines, county lines, etc.) ===

    Republicans love that one because it corrals Chicago Democrats inside Chicago and keeps them out of suburban Cook.


  25. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:24 am:

    - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:13 am:

    ===Utah and S.C. both lost population===

    “They both gained congressional districts, so where are you seeing that data?”

    Ahem, I’m subtracting the wrong two columns in my spreadsheet. Time for another cup of strong gentlemen’s brown.


  26. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:26 am:

    lol


  27. - Dan Johnson-Weinberger - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:28 am:

    If we really lost a seat by only 75,000 residents, we should join the push to expand the number of Representatives above 435 so we are held harmless. 710,000 people in a congressional district is way too many. And we only need a federal statute to increase the size of the House; no need for a constitutional amendment. Until 1910, the House grew in number every year so that the number of people in each district wouldn’t get to be too high.


  28. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:30 am:

    - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:23 am:

    ===and respects existing political boarders (think town lines, county lines, etc.) ===

    “Republicans love that one because it corrals Chicago Democrats inside Chicago and keeps them out of suburban Cook.”

    Forget R’s and D’s a minute and look from the voters’ perspective. I’m sure all those suburban voters just love their representatives living in the City, especially the interstate districts. And, it would not necessarily be a bad thing if the Chicago tail stopped wagging the Illinois dog (ducks for cover).

    Fortner’s program can be used as a starting point and tweaked in whatever manner wanted/needed. It would be a great exercise if Mike were to run the program straight up just as an exercise to see what we’d end up with.


  29. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:31 am:

    There will be no Schilling/Schock primary. Schock is ready to take on Durbin and if their districts overlap Schilling will be the lone nominee.

    Cmon people we are talking about moving targets here.


  30. - ZC - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:36 am:

    One clear trend, in one word, for many of the states that gained: Latinos. See: Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona. That’s not an absolute trend (SC, GA, WA), but it’s a complicated story, obviously.

    Given what many Latinos’ sentiments are towards the national Republican party, I’m not sure this is such a great mega-trend for the GOP. Texas, for instance, will be gaining four seats, but since a) it already did a pretty good job of wiping out existing Democrats in 2010; b) much of the growth is from exploding Latino populations there, it’s unclear whether more than one or two of these four will be drawn to favor Republicans.


  31. - ZC - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:38 am:

    But Schock couldn’t run against Durbin until 2014. Does he want to take two years’ off in the private sector?


  32. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:39 am:

    Of course Illinois loses a seat. We do not gain and have not gained a congressional seat in a Century.

    But wow! Look at Georgia and Florida! And Texas!

    They are doing something right beyond geography. Congrats to our booming bretheren for find the fountain of youth!

    Whatever they are doing we need to do too. I am tired of watching our lunch eaten.


  33. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:42 am:

    ZC is right. And Schock may be looking at governor as well.


  34. - wndycty - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:51 am:

    ===All states grew. Some faster than others. And Washington, Florida, Nevada and others are not strictly Republican states.===

    Rich it does appear Michigan did lose population.

    2000 9,938,444

    2010 9,883,640


  35. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:53 am:

    Why should the D leaders give a hoot what the Rs or anyone else says when drawing the map. If some incredible miracle had happened and the Rs had won all the seats at the drafting table, those Rs wouldn’t be listening to anyone else either.

    I think Fortner is a mostly decent guy, but would even he be pushing a “fairness” plan in Illinois if the Rs had control? I seriously doubt it.

    To the victor go the spoils in Illinois and both sides know that rule going in.

    Pat Brady and Tom Cross and all the rest are going to have to put on their big boy pants and deal with the fact they failed again.


  36. - Conservative Veteran - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:53 am:

    If a republican congressman runs for governor, in 2014, it should be Bob Dold. Sen. Brady didn’t do well in Cook Co. If Dold (from New Trier Township) is the republican nominee, he’ll receive more votes than Brady, in suburban Cook Co., helping Dold win.


  37. - Rep Mike Fortner - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:02 pm:

    It’s true that in Midwestern states with large urban concentrations, a process that only looks at compactness and political boundaries tends to favor Republicans by packing Democrats in compact areas. In my work with Ohio, and as I suggested for Illinois, use of competitiveness as a factor mitigates the packing from geographical factors. Together they create a balance for the districts.


  38. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:02 pm:

    just sayin’

    Even if R’s controlled everything, I would still be pushing for an Iowa-type plan. Let the chips fall where they may. Not much would change in hard R and hard D seats, but the swing seats would be highly competitive and legislative majorities would be more subject to the voters’ whims and perhaps less on leadership’s prerogatives. Isn’t that what we really want?


  39. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:05 pm:

    Mike,

    Thanks for joining the discussion! Any chance you might run the newly reapportioned Illinois through your model and post it on an appropriate web site? I am sure there are plenty of good-governance web sites that would be more than willing to publish your results.

    I’d also like to see the same run writ small on DuPage County for use in re-drwaing the County Board and other such districts.

    You in?


  40. - 'Dale to HPark - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:12 pm:

    But wouldn’t getting something like Fortner’s program or what they have in Iowa require changing the Illinois Constitution? I’d guess the best chance to change how districting is done will be 2028 when we vote on the ConCon again.


  41. - 'Dale to HPark - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:18 pm:

    Also, wouldn’t any Iowa-type plan lead to fewer seats downstate? Anyone have any clue about that? Chicagoland is what, 75% to 80% of the state’s population, seems to me that downstate has had one seat too many. So I’m not sure downstate would be all for a new plan either.


  42. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:24 pm:

    ‘Dale,

    I believe the GA can initiate Constitutional Amendments within these parameters:

    “The General Assembly shall not submit proposed amendments to more than three Articles of the Constitution at any one election. No amendment shall be proposed or submitted under this Section from the time a Convention is called until after the electors have voted on the revision or amendments, if any, proposed by such Convention.”

    I am not sure anything in the Illinois Constitution needs to be amended. Article IV provides the legislature with quite a bit of latitude when it comes to the content of redistricting, mainly providing dates and other technical requirements.


  43. - Rep Mike Fortner - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:28 pm:

    ‘Dale, A mandate for my proposal for legislative districts would require a constitutional amendment such as I filed in HJRCA 32 and 46. There’s nothing that bars the legislature from using those criteria as it creates a map in the spring. The congressional map is not governed by the constitution, so any criteria to draw that map could be imposed by statute alone.


  44. - amalia - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:28 pm:

    @Dan Johnson Weinberger, while I bemoan the loss of a seat for Illinois, the government is too large and has not kept up with the times so why make it bigger? Congress should spend more time on making laws in a straightforward way, like they just did with DADT, one issue at a time, more clarity on the position of a legislator, less time and money spent on legislation. Less not more. Not more members of Congress. and fewer members of
    Chicago’s City Council and New York too. get more done with less, everyone else does!


  45. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:33 pm:

    ===get more done with less, everyone else does! ===

    Because that worked so well in Illinois.


  46. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:38 pm:

    Of course Illinois loses a seat. We do not gain and have not gained a congressional seat in a Century.

    But wow! Look at Georgia and Florida! And Texas!

    They are doing something right beyond geography. Congrats to our booming bretheren for find the fountain of youth!

    Whatever they are doing we need to do too. I am tired of watching our lunch eaten.
    ————-

    It might be hard to pick up and move the entire state of Illinois closer to the Mexican border.


  47. - K3 - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:40 pm:

    Schock just got on Ways & Means. I don’t see him going anywhere for a little while. Eventually he’ll go statewide, but he will have a lot of influence in DC and will probably want time to leverage it. Plus, why would he want to run against Durbin? He’s too strong downstate.


  48. - Dan Johnson-Weinberger - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:40 pm:

    @amalia do you think you have any chance of getting a phone call returned from your US Representative when there are 710,000 of you in the district? You do have a much better chance of getting a phone call returned from your state rep (110,000 or so) or your state senator (220,000 or so). Increasing the size of the House from 435 to about what the UK House of Commons is to around 650 would be a big small-d democratic improvement.

    The size of the government and the number of legislators are independent questions.


  49. - Highland, IL - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:41 pm:

    “It could be good news for Democrats,” said U.S. Rep. Phil Hare”…..

    Can’t help but think you shouldn’t gloat about your state losing a seat.


  50. - Vibes - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:47 pm:

    “I’m sure all those suburban voters just love their representatives living in the City”

    Two of the Seven “Chicago” members of Congress live in the suburbs. I’m one of those City residents who whose member lives in the suburbs (Jan). And Lipinski lives in Western Springs.


  51. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 12:52 pm:

    “Even if R’s controlled everything, I would still be pushing for an Iowa-type plan.”

    That’s all well and good Mike, and I believe you, but the bottom line is the GOP pooh-bahs that actually call the shots wouldn’t give a darn and would just override you. Of course they would probably end up losing seats anyway.


  52. - amalia - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:00 pm:

    @Dan Johnson Weinberger; I do think that government must function more efficiently. I don’t necessarily think that a call to an elected official is the way to do that. Government bureaucracy must be right sized, functions analyzed, changes made, better service given. There is a purpose to elected representatives…policy making. Increasing the size of an elected body with a concern for phone calls returned is not the reason to increase the size.

    as for the UK, well I’m all for shorter campaigns, (less for campaign consultants, yeah) rapid changes in governments, portfolios for the electeds so they actually feel the relationship to the governance, but, there is some disconnect between where a member lives and the constituency that they represent, even less so than in the U.S. But do bring on the Queen!


  53. - Responsa - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:01 pm:

    –Congress should spend more time on making laws in a straightforward way, like they just did with DADT, one issue at a time==

    Agree. The words “omnibus” and “comprehensive” when it comes to lawmaking are scary words indeed. These massive bills hide stuff from the public (and sometimes even from legislators) that should be seen, while complicating issues and enabling back scratch and back room deals.


  54. - Segatari - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:02 pm:

    Pennsylvania and Michigan are not swing states - they’ve consistently voted Democrat in the past several presidental elections. These should be counted in the Dem loser column.


  55. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:04 pm:

    Segatari, did you see what happened in those two states last month?


  56. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:31 pm:

    Pat Brady, chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, warned that the GOP would push back if the Democrats in Springfield become too “heavy handed” and don’t cooperate in creating new congressional and legislative districts that are competitive for both sides.

    Now that is funny. I bet that statement really puts fear into the Democrat map drawers.

    Pat Brady can you say irrelevant!! LOL


  57. - cermak_rd - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 1:57 pm:

    “I’m sure all those suburban voters just love their representatives living in the City”

    You can argue this in a lot of different ways. In my case, I live in Berwyn, I’d much rather my Rep live in the city than in the much wealthier than his average constituent neighborhood he does live in. Berwyn has a lot more in common with the city than it does Western Springs or Westchester. I would imagine rural denizens hate having their reps live in cities like Champaign or Urbana or Peoria.


  58. - Rambler - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:00 pm:

    The last data that I saw prior to the census numbers indicated that there are probably now more Hispanics in Illinois than African-Americans. Given that there are currently three African-American seats and only one Hispanic seat, I’d certainly expect Hispanics to gain another seat, unless there is some other factor at work.
    This would in effect cause a loss of two seats for the other Congresspeople.


  59. - Monstrum - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:15 pm:

    I’m glad I read this today. Where can I get more info about Rep. Fortner’s districting plan?


  60. - Responsa - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:15 pm:

    ==there are currently three African-American seats and only one Hispanic seat..==

    Guess that beautiful, inclusive American melting pot concept has gone by the wayside, huh?


  61. - cermak_rd - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:19 pm:

    The American melting pot was always more myth than reality. While I witnessed something like it in my small town growing up (Scots intermarried with Poles!), it was never much of a reality up here in Chicago until the mass suburbanization starting in the 1950s.


  62. - Highland, IL - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:50 pm:

    ===American melting pot concept===

    Always thought of America more as a mosiac….


  63. - Tom - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 2:51 pm:

    The problem with the Iowa model is that Iowas is around 98% white. Iowa is like Illinois south of I80 but nothing like the whole state.


  64. - Rep Mike Fortner - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 3:10 pm:

    Monstrum, If you would like to see how a dry run of the Ohio proposal worked using 2000 data, check http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/redistricting.aspx . Other states are looking at similar competitions to work with the real data when it comes out in February or March of 2011. They hope that the competition results can influence the map makers in the legislature.


  65. - Pat Robertson - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 3:23 pm:

    ==Rich it does appear Michigan did lose population.==

    There’s an easy explanation — the mass exodus of prime football prospects who, in prior decades, would have gone to Ann Arbor.


  66. - Segatari - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 3:25 pm:

    >Segatari, did you see what happened in those two states last month?

    Irrelevant. Just because they elect Republican governors or senators one particular year doesn’t mean the state will go GOP for president. Neither state has voted for a GOP presidental candidate since 1988.


  67. - shore - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 4:21 pm:

    I don’t really see the schock koolaid selling. Aside from getting manhandled by chris matthews on hardball and acting like a 29 year old it wasn’t an outstanding 1st term. His part of the state has not done well and I’m wondering what virtues he brings to the table.

    As for the idea of expanding the size of congress, there are some districts where the member represents 500k people as opposed to 700k and they answer just as few phonecalls. Next.

    this 3 black/1 latino city congressional fight looks good. No question there are a lot more hispanics now. Should be a juicy match.


  68. - Logic not emotion - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 4:23 pm:

    Mike: That period after your site is included so link doesn’t work. Have to cut, paste, and delete the period after aspx P.S. I love that concept. Remove the games (to extent possible) and let chips fall where they may.


  69. - the Dark Horse - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 4:36 pm:

    I think hard-core democrats in Will County would rather have Kinzinger than have Jesse Jackson Jr.’s district expanded any further into the county.


  70. - T.J. - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 5:03 pm:

    Am I seriously the only one here glad Illinois lost a seat? I feel bad for whosever seat it is, but we cause the rest of the country enough trouble already.


  71. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 6:06 pm:

    Move to Mexico?

    At what point to you consult a map? Florida and Georgia are not close to Mexico, but then, you probably knew that but wouldn’t let facts get in your way, right?

    I prefer Chicago to Houston, but it appears that I am becoming in the minority on that, especially over the past decade.

    Louisiana lost a seat. It moved to Houston. Houston is closer to Louisiana than it is to Mexico. Dallas is 500 miles to Mexico.

    Your excuses against Mexico are not adding up. These states are booming for other reasons than geographical.


  72. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 6:17 pm:

    What I know is that Illinois used to be a big dog in a booming economy. Then we had to start sharing power. While we are still growing, we are not growing enough to offset Congressional losses.

    Other states have been hit harder. Look at Pennsylvania.

    Illinois was a swing state until recently. So, it isn’t because of politics.

    Chicago is pretty nice, but the real reason millions moved here is to make money, not enjoy the climate. When we stop making it possible for new ideas to become new business ventures with as few barriers as possible, we stop creating Searses, Wardses, Marshall Fieldses, Kraftses, and other major global brands.

    We stopped being hungry. We stopped trying to grow our economic pie, and started focusing on redistributing the pieces within it. We lost focus.

    Also, please notice that if it wasn’t for air conditioning, this would not have been happening either. You just cannot live in the booming states without air conditioning. Now that we have created central air, geographical regions within our country can now be populated where we wouldn’t have been between the months of March to October. Except for Seattle, which is so far from the rest of the US, it is still too damn remote for most Americans.


  73. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 6:22 pm:

    ===You just cannot live in the booming states without air conditioning.===

    Heck, you can barely live here.


  74. - Honest Abe - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 6:38 pm:

    General observations:

    It is a pity, but Illinois continues to decline in terms of its political influence. Despite a modest population increase, Illinois is not keeping pace with the faster growing portions of the country.

    If past experience is a guide, a Democratic redistricting plan is going to push it to the limit in terms of gerrymandering. When the GOP last had control of the mapping process, the leaders handled things in a gingerly manner fearing a court challenge.

    Air conditioning counts: following World War II, Phoenix was the largest city in Arizona with a population of about 50,000. Worse still, before widespread air conditioning, Congress used to adjourn for most of the Summer.

    The Hispanic population has increased, but will not receive greater political respect until their voting numbers improve. Those who are ineligible to vote may impact state and local government in many ways, but have not demonstrated strength at the ballot box. Ed and Dan Burke are still in office after all. Sometimes, it seems ridiculous to me that wards drawn to promote minority representation turn out such paltry votes on election day. I think that 4,500 votes can elect an alderman from the 22nd Ward.


  75. - Park - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 7:23 pm:

    I vote we draw Danny Davis’s seat out.


  76. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Dec 21, 10 @ 11:04 pm:

    I think when the full numbers are published; it will be interesting to see how large an factor the Hispanic population will have on the growth of Texas and Arizona. Since apportionment is based on total population regardless of legal status, it will be ironic if TX and AZ gain seats thanks to a population they are trying to keep out.


  77. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Dec 22, 10 @ 9:42 am:

    @Cassandra:

    Your logic is pretty twisted up.

    If I were a Republican who voted for a tax hike, the last thing I’d want is to be drawn into a safe GOP seat, where I’d most surely face a primary challenge.

    Brady’s logic is even more twisted. He argues that we should maximize competitive districts and, by extension, that Democrats and Republicans should have an equal chance at the majority in the Illinois House, Illinois Senate, and Illinois’ Congressional Delegation.

    You could make that argument if Illinoisans were equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, or if Illinoisans were equally divided between the platforms of the two parties.

    But that is certainly NOT the case. Illinois is a decidedly Blue State. A Republican President hasn’t won this state in more than twenty years. Illinoisans are decidedly pro-choice and support equal rights for gay Americans. On issues of state spending, Illinoisans overwhelmingly support increased spending on health care, education, human services and the environment.


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