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*** UPDATED - Exit Polls *** Primary eve prediction thread and live-blog

Tuesday, Mar 20, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Let’s move into the next phase of our coverage with your predictions for tonight. Presidential, congressional, legislative, etc. Make as many as you can, and I won’t hold you to them. It’s all in fun. No wagering, please.

….Adding… NBC 5 has a live video feed. We’ll hopefully have more of these as the evening progresses….

…Adding More… Eric Zorn’s predictions

US Congress : Jesse Jackson Jr., Tammy Duckworth, Adam Kinziger, Ilya Sheyman
General Assembly: Patricia van Pelt Watkins, Kirk Dillard, Derrick Smith
Supreme Court: Aurelia Pucinski
Cook County Clerk: Dorothy Brown
President: Mitt Romney (by 7 percent)

*** UPDATE *** Check the ScribbleLive feed for exit poll info.

       

27 Comments
  1. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm:

    49 Sd Peck , 42 house Hage , President one of them , delegates all over the place , 12cd Plummer , and Roger Eddy is gone


  2. - J - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm:

    President: Romney
    Supreme Court: Theis
    CD 02: Jackson
    CD 08: Duckworth
    CD 10: Sheyman
    CD 13: Goetten
    CD 16: Manzullo
    Cook County Clerk of Courts: Brown
    HD 14: Cassidy
    HD 21: Lozano
    HD 26: Mitchell
    HD 35: Hurley
    HD 39: Berrios
    HD 78: Lilly
    SD 05: Collins
    SD 15: Miller
    SD 19: Hastings


  3. - ZC - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:54 pm:

    Romney will beat Santorum, but I’ll guess it’s not the relative blowout some are predicting. Turnout is awful in Cook and the collars and somewhat better further out in the 16th (the exurbs) where Santorum will do somewhat better. Also Santorum’s voters turn out to be slightly more motivated than Romney’s. I’ll say it’s Romney by about 39-37.

    Jackson Jr and Tammy will win handily. Manzullo vs Kinzinger, who knows, but I will bet Manzullo narrowly wins.

    Ilya Sheyman will win the 10th nod. Piszczor will be crushed in her primary bid vs. Madigan.

    And though I hope she won’t, Dorothy Brown will again win reelection based on her name recognition and general low turnout across Cook County. The somewhat competitive primary with Jackson Jr in southern Cook will boost African-American turnout and help out Brown.


  4. - Spliff - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:56 pm:

    Jacobs wins
    Barickman wins
    Pankau wins
    dillard wins
    A. Collins wins
    D. Smith wins
    Gill wins
    Duckworth wins
    Syverson wins
    Sue Scheer barely pulls it off
    Theis wins
    Napolean Harris wins
    Kinzinger wins
    Madigan Wins


  5. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 4:58 pm:

    McSweeney over Gaffney but close , Rowe might get 8% of the vote for her “revolution” , Sandeck wins huge , I want Cliff but Karen will win . Chris Lauzen will beat Pat Brady .

    Losers for tonight Cicero Dan and Zahm


  6. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:01 pm:

    Raja K. wins the 8th CD Democrat primary.

    Jason Plummer wins the 12th CD Republican primary.

    Matt Goetten wins the 13th CD Democrat primary.

    Adam Kinzinger wins the 16th CD Republican primary.

    Mike Jacobs, Sue Sherer, Jared Perry, Paul Evans, Tom Swiss, Annazette Collins, Kirk Dillard, Sam McCann, Jason Barickman, Dave Syverson, Napoleon Harris, Carole Pankau, Dan Lewandowski and Rudy Lozano all win their respective primaries. Sorry I was too lazy to type it all out.


  7. - Ok - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:15 pm:

    Rich, I predict record low turnout, especially in the city of Chicago.

    Why?

    - no Senate candidates on the ballot
    - no Governor’s race one the ballot
    - no competitive Dem Presidential primary

    The last time there were no statewide races and no competitive DEM presidential primary? 1964.

    It’s a rare year.


  8. - J - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:17 pm:

    Forgot HD 10: D. Smith


  9. - 32nd Ward Roscoe Village - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:20 pm:

    Just finished voting. At 5 p.m., they had run out of the paper democratic ballots in my precinct even though the place was not busy. I had to use the electronic voting which I hate. Also, they have one machine so if the post-work crowd comes, there will be a line and the five voting booths for using the paper ballots will be empty.
    I hope Theis wins the Supreme Court but I don’t want to predict it or I will jinx it. Had 7 judicial robocalls on the answering machine from yesterday.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:23 pm:

    Potus - Romney

    Congress:

    J-Trips (Halverson will get steam-rolled, 70-30)
    Duckworth
    Foster
    Plummer (going to be an interesting General Election)
    Kinzinger (Manzullo - ‘It’s business’)

    IL Senate:

    Munoz
    Annazette Collins
    Pankaus
    Dillard (Nybo - ‘wax wings too close to the sun’)
    Oberweis (yeah, I know …)
    McConnaughay
    Jacobs (ONE. TO. WATCH.)
    Garrett Peck (interesting race …)
    Rose (welcome to the ‘new’ map, repubs!)
    Cultra

    IL House:

    DERRICK SMITH (a.k.a. Madigan’s Magicians)
    Stoppa (over Martwick, interesting NW Truce landscape too)
    Michael. Madigan. (Pisczcor will never have her garbage picked up again!)
    Berrios
    Gaffney (and McSweeney, please go away!!!)
    Durkin
    Kifowit

    Supreme Court:

    Theis (but Aurie will make her SWEAT)

    Cook - Board of Review:

    Morrison (Patlak ‘needed more days’ = kiss of death)


  11. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:29 pm:

    One more for fun:

    Dorothy Brown

    She still has a few lives left, and this race ain’t going to get her…


  12. - Lakewood-Balmoral - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:46 pm:

    Romney
    Theis
    Brown
    Duckworth
    Lilly wins and thus carries Graham in a battle to maintain the status quo
    Madigan absolutely destroys everyone
    Berrios gets saved
    Swiss wins and the Dems run an independent (Madigan can spend unlimitied funds on an IE)
    Cassidy mops up Basta
    Patrick Tjompson wins third spot in water rec


  13. - Shore - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:51 pm:

    ok-that’s because this is only the 3rd democratic president seeking re-election since 1948.


  14. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:51 pm:

    As said elsewhere, I’ll go with Zorn’s picks. I believe Romney will top Santorum by at least 10%, even with the low turnout.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 5:57 pm:

    Romney, by less than 7 percent … 10 is way too high.

    To clarify my pick…


  16. - Ok - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:03 pm:

    Shore - actually, it is the first time this scenario has been the case (no statewide races and an incumbent president seeking reelection) for either a Dem or Rep incumbent president seeking reelection since 1964. I picked dem because that is what will explain the low turnout in Chicago.


  17. - Esquire - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:11 pm:

    Has Romney ever broken 40% in any contested primary held this year? Sheesh!


  18. - Team America - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:15 pm:

    Il-10 Dem primary results:

    Ilya Sheyman: 36%
    Brad Schneider: 34%
    John Tree: 21%
    Vivek Bavda: 8%
    Other: 1%


  19. - Hmmm - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:19 pm:

    I just got home to a robo message from a group called Jews and Christians for Santorum. It was the most offensive thing I have ever heard! Did anyone else get these calls? I am speechless.


  20. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:26 pm:

    NBC 5 said that 70 percent of the GOP primary vote is coming from the suburbs. Yowza.

    My random mostly shot-in-the-dark predictions:
    -Romney 47 Santorum 34 Paul 9 Gingrich 8 Other 2
    -IL-2 - JJJ by 20
    -IL-8 - Duckworth by 8
    -IL-10 - Sheyman by 9
    -IL-12 - Harriman/Plummer
    -IL-13 - Goetten
    -IL-16 - Kinzinger by 2

    -S.Ct - Theis

    -Cook County Circuit Clerk - Brown over Munoz (unfortunately)

    -MWRD - in an upset Black gets a spot for being first on ballot

    -42nd ward GOP committeeman - Smithburg over Gerson

    -Statehouse - Collins over Van Pelt-Watkins
    -Statehouse - Smith over Swiss
    -Statehouse - Barickman over Cultra
    -Statehouse - Scherer over Cahnman

    -McLean County State’s Attorney - Chambers over Foster


  21. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:29 pm:

    Hmmm I have a recording of that call & it was terrible


  22. - anon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:32 pm:

    Hmmmm Rich has the bad robo recording . Ironic as it may be a gay man got it last night and said ” Mullah Rick”


  23. - South Sider - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:38 pm:

    I voted in the 19th Ward at about 5:30. They said they’d be lucky to get to 50% when normally they are at 75.


  24. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:49 pm:

    That robocall is posted in the ScribbleLive blog. Scroll thru.


  25. - RajaDanceParty - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:54 pm:

    President - Romney by 7

    Congress:

    Jesse Jr. by 20
    Duckworth by 15
    Kinzinger

    IL Senate:

    Munoz
    Annazette Collins
    Pankau
    Dillard by at least 10
    McConnaughay
    Barickman

    IL House:
    Kelly Cassidy
    Christian Mitchell in a close one
    Elgie Sims
    Derrick Smith
    Martwick
    Berrios
    McSweeney (unfortunately over one of the most decent member of the GA)

    Supreme Court:

    Theis


  26. - Informer - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 6:56 pm:

    The same entitlement promising ones will be re-elected
    They have a plan…tax the rich


  27. - Anon - Tuesday, Mar 20, 12 @ 7:02 pm:

    Mike Hastings will win to replace Sen. Maggie Crotty in IL 19


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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