Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » National Journal ranks Illinois races
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
National Journal ranks Illinois races

Wednesday, Jul 18, 2012

* From the National Journal

Three wave elections in a row have done plenty to scramble the House landscape. This year, it’s unlikely another wave will develop–at least any wave that could overwhelmingly benefit one party. Instead, we’re likely to see an anti-Washington backlash, one that could cost a number of members their jobs, even if neither side sees a big net increase.

* The National Journal looked at 75 US House districts that it deems the most likely to change hands. Here are the Illinois rankings

3. IL-08 (R, Rep. Joe Walsh): Walsh complained recently that Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran and former Veterans Affairs official, uses her service as a way to duck political issues. She would have to address issues more if Walsh didn’t keep sticking his foot in his mouth. The seat gave President Obama more than 61 percent of the vote in 2008, and 45 percent of its residents are nonwhite. As one of Walsh’s colleagues might say, the cake is baked.

8. IL-10 (R, Rep. Robert Dold): Of all the Republican-held House seats, this one gave the greatest share of its 2008 presidential vote to Obama. But Democrats failed to capture it from Mark Kirk in several attempts last decade, and they couldn’t keep Dold from holding it for the GOP in 2010. Dold’s legitimate moderate streak (and a formidable war chest) gives him a glimmer of hope, but Democrats have a strong, moderate nominee in Brad Schneider. Schneider will hammer Dold all autumn for his two votes for the Ryan budget plan. Obama could win the district with 60 percent again, and it would be difficult for Dold to peel off a full sixth of Obama supporters from Schneider.

16. IL-17 (R, Rep. Bobby Schilling): Democrat Cheri Bustos is quickly raising cash in a district that, like nearly every other GOP-held seat in Illinois, got more Democratic after redistricting. The swing districts outside Chicago’s orbit aren’t quite as fertile ground for Democrats as the ones closer to the city, but Schilling is competing at a structural disadvantage.

17. IL-11 (R, Rep. Judy Biggert): Biggert is a moderate on social issues, and that helped her appeal across party lines against tough opposition in 2008. But Obama won 54 percent in that seat; he took 61 percent of the vote in the new seat. Obama probably won’t do as well this year, but that still makes it tough to figure out the math necessary for Biggert to beat well-funded ex-Rep. Bill Foster.

23. IL-12 (Open D, Rep. Jerry Costello retiring): Though the district voted for both John Kerry and Barack Obama for president, Southern Illinois is exactly the type of predominantly white, working-class place where Democrats have had serious trouble recently. Republicans think businessman Jason Plummer can wrestle the seat away for them. Democratic nominee Bill Enyart, who commanded the Illinois National Guard, joined the race just weeks ago after the Democratic primary winner dropped out for health reasons. Enyart seems like a great recruit so far, but he has a lot of money and name identification to make up in a hurry.

53. IL-13 (R, Rep. Tim Johnson): Republican nominee Rodney Davis has never appeared on the district’s ballot; GOP county chairs chose him to replace Johnson after the incumbent declined to run in the general after winning the primary. But Democratic nominee David Gill might have appeared before voters too many times. He lost to Johnson three times in the last decade, and a more Democratic district might not be enough to boost him over Davis this year.

Thoughts?

* A fundraising chart from Crain’s

* More

The only candidate to have a clear fundraising advantage is freshman Rep. Robert Dold.

The North Shore Republican had more than $2.1 million in the bank after hauling in $711,084 in the three months ended June 30, according to the latest campaign finance reports.

His Democratic opponent from Deerfield, management consultant Brad Schneider, raised almost as much in the quarter — $582,342 — but had only $567,623 in cash on hand after spending most of the $1.5 million he’s raised so far on a tough primary. […]

In the open downstate seat of retiring Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana, Republican candidate Rodney Davis has outraised Democrat David Gill by almost 2-to-1, making it less likely to become one of the state’s hottest races.

…Adding… Oops. I forgot to make mention of the Tribune’s scathing editorial about Joe Walsh

Our “true heroes”? As opposed to what, exactly?

Walsh’s opponent is Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who flew combat missions in Iraq as a member of the Illinois Army National Guard. In 2004, Duckworth was piloting a Black Hawk helicopter when it was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by insurgents. She guided the aircraft safely to the ground, then passed out from loss of blood. Her comrades dragged her from the wreckage, wrapped her in bandages and whisked her to safety. Duckworth, who lost both of her legs in the attack, was awarded the Purple Heart.

Those are facts.

A military website interviewed her a few weeks after the attack.

“I hope this is the worst thing that happens to anyone in the 106th during this deployment,” she said. “This is not so bad. There is always somebody worse off than you are. I’m just glad it was me and not one of my guys out there.”

Now what was that, Rep. Walsh, about true heroes?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

24 Comments
  1. - so.... - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:47 am:

    I wouldn’t write off Dold. He managed to beat a candidate with near universal name recognition in a district that should have gone Democratic years ago.

    With regard to IL-13, there is no way that seat is flipping. Davis is already out-raising Gill to a significant degree, and Gill is just way too liberal for that district.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:50 am:

    Feeling better about Rodney Davis every day. The money just reinforces those feelings. Gill will have more hurdles than Davis, and in that district, the hurdles will be the difference.

    Walsh might be “done”, or as it was said above, “the cake is baked”. Very very tough road for Walsh, and he doesn’t seem to like to help himself, rather, Walsh likes to make it more difficult, and then blame everyone else for his difficulties. Time is also against Walsh, especially when you have to waste so much of his time cleaning up self-inflicted messes.

    Plummer should be OK. If Plummer comes off arrogant, and is still standoff-ish on the taxes, that elitism could come back to haunt him. Also, the perception that Plummer is a negative candidate, and always seems to go negative, that might turn off more people this time around. Plummer must have something positive out there to hang his hat on, or continuing the negative all the time, with all the negatives about himself, will bring more into focus Plummer’s negatives as Plummer tries to tighten the screws.

    Interesting read, Thanks, Rich.


  3. - ZC - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:51 am:

    We were discussing the possibility of a Tribune endorsement for Walsh the other day. I think the odds of that are sinking fast. Duckworth may well be the highest profile Democratic Tribune endorsement of the cycle.


  4. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:10 pm:

    Dold is pushing hard on protecting women’s rights and access to health care. He’s also supporting public education. He knows he has to reach out to non-Republicans. His last flyer stated the following:

    “Based on his voting record and commitment to put people before politics and progress before partisanship, the “National Journal” recognizes Congressman Dold as one of the most ‘independent’ representatives in Congress.”

    Quite a different message from the last election.


  5. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:11 pm:

    NJ forgot to factor in the impact of the Woodie Romney-Plummer’s tax return strategy. He will be sinking like a rock as that drags on.
    Daddy will drop another million and Woodie will back on the allowance again.
    Fire, Aim, Ready


  6. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:21 pm:

    How sad would it be if the only Republican from that group to come out on top turns out to be Rodney Davis, the Pat Brady employee from the state gop who is easisly the least impressive of the 6 profiled.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:23 pm:

    ===…who is easisly the least impressive of the 6 profiled.===

    You really want to go with “easily the least impressive” with ALL those …dunno about that.


  8. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:30 pm:

    Yes.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:34 pm:

    - just sayin’ -

    Plummer is more impressive than Davis?

    I know Jason would “gladly match (his) leadership and (his) executive experience up to most anybody’s.” but you would too?


  10. - Skeeter - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:48 pm:

    Plummer is ranked way too low. The Dems are going to have a heck of time holding that one. Other than Duckworth win, that’s the closest thing we have to a sure thing. It sure is depressing though.


  11. - Skeeter - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:51 pm:

    Biggert is ranked way too high. I like Foster, but Judy has been around for a long time and she’s generally liked. She’s not an extremist. I don’t see her losing.


  12. - Paul - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    Do not count the amount of money that will be spent yet. There could be a lot of Super Pac and 504(c) money entering the fray late in the election season. When it is too late for the candidate to raise more money and respond.


  13. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 1:55 pm:

    NJ should have just reported, “no surprises”. I don’t see much change, except Walsh and Plummer passing one another on the road - one going and one coming. More 2010 than 2008.


  14. - Shore - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:32 pm:

    further proof of why brady is finished in republican politics.

    you left out the dccc and superpac spending that has been announced.


  15. - Oz - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:35 pm:

    It’s time we make all these political positions “at-will” employees. The election cycle is way to long. Like four years for the president and then they waste the first year doing nothing and the last year is all about “fun (sic)raising”!

    Better yet let’s just go to a straight democracy instead of representative democracy. We have the technology today to handle it..


  16. - Professor - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:44 pm:

    Tammy Duckworth came to my class when she was Illinois Director of Veterans Affairs, A male student who seemed annoyed with her position on the War asked if she was advocating the US just “cut and run”. She looked at him and answered, “I landed my plane with both legs gone. I don’t ever cut and run.” The student crawled under his chair. This is a lady of substance, quite a lady.


  17. - Kilroy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:45 pm:

    The media and the professional election industry must be licking their chops at all that money….mmmmmmm…..


  18. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:46 pm:

    @ZC -

    That quote from Duckworth is not uncommon (she herself has downplayed the mantle of hero consistently), although I’m glad it was included because its dated to long before she entered politics. It speaks tremendously to her character.


  19. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:48 pm:

    BTW, I had to laugh at the reference to Plummer as a “businessman.”


  20. - Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:49 pm:

    If memory serves, Dan Seals was formally endorsed by Obama who then carpet bombed the 10th with radio ads with Obama speaking about Seals. Dold still won.

    Two of the best campaigners in recent history that I have run across are Dold and Walsh. Don’t write either one of them off just yet. Walsh running his mouth in a stream of consciousness type of way proved extremely popular among his followers. Too bad his new district is so heavily gerrymandered against him.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:53 pm:

    ===BTW, I had to laugh at the reference to Plummer as a “businessman.”===

    Or whatever his Dad wants him to be that week …

    BTW, YDD, did you read the above about the Gill/Davis race … just asking …


  22. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 3:06 pm:

    Schock’s totals are simply eye-popping. If he isn’t trying to build up for a possible statewide run or pushing for a committee chairmanship, I would be, ahem, shocked. Sorry - had to go there.

    Dodd’s and Duckworth’s fundraising totals are impressive.


  23. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 7:21 pm:

    The Duckworth race is a snoozer in terms of outcomes, but a lot of fun to watch Walsh thinking he has a shot and shooting his mouth off.

    In the races other than 12 & 13, the demographics are the biggest part of the story–and that’s primarily what the National Journal is looking at. Candidates matter, but demographics matter more. 13 is done and will go R.

    12 is hard to decide–give Willy material for years or have an adult win.


  24. - Paul - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 8:45 pm:

    Team Sleep, Schock has an extremely safe district. When the 17th Congressional District was made more favorable for Democrats, they mad Schock’s 18th District solid red. Schock does not really have to spend much money, it ends up in his bank account.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Weekend news roundup
* React to Rauner's Friday vetoes
* Reader comments closed until Tuesday
* Rauner vetoes several major pieces of legislation
* Four leaders meet in Chicago, plan another sitdown on Tuesday
* Kennedy delivered an unusually somber Democrat Day speech
* Governor signs River Edge bill in Rockford... err... Aurora
* Caption contest!
* All's well that ends well, I suppose
* Question of the day
* SDems have most seniority, HGOPs the least
* Asked when he'll take responsibility, Rauner blames Madigan
* Do Your Job, Inc. puts latest online ad on TV
* *** UPDATED x1 - IDHS responds *** What's the holdup on domestic violence funding?
* Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez says she won't run again
* Rauner calls TRUST Act a "very reasonable" bill, won't commit to signing it
* Drury says he has a "good sense" of how government works
* The story behind that Facebook pic of Madigan
* Rauner explains his weight loss
* Today's quotable: “No one’s going to locate there"
* *** UPDATED x3 - Still hasn't seen it - DGA criticizes Rauner *** Rauner points to WVON host's defense of Illinois Policy Institute cartoon as legislators to protest HQ
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Springfield man killed in shooting - FOX Illinois..
* Ill. governor vetoes plan requiring overdue bil.....
* Our View: General Assembly needs to override ve.....
* Illinois bill aims to build a bridge between im.....


* EXCHANGE: Fire engine lifts spirits of Sycamore 7-year-old
* EXCHANGE: In Pana, there is a search for hope amid adversity
* Wear solar specs or make a viewer to safely watch eclipse
* Case dismissed against man in beating of Chicago officer
* Buddhist temple in Minnesota inaugurates new reflection pond
* WIU students, faculty research ways to combat Asian carp
* Southern Illinois prepares for influx of eclipse visitors
* DNA lab reduces testing for missing people amid funding woes
* Northwestern prof, Oxford staffer extradited to Chicago
* Fatal crashes down in Illinois 20 years after .08 law

* Rauner signs law to eliminate township collector in Sangamon County
* Rauner signs bill creating agency to govern ALPLM
* New pharmacy rules in Illinois aim to improve patient safety
* Rauner vetoes plan requiring overdue bill reporting
* Rauner pays for private helicopter to public event in northern Illinois
* Rauner pays for private helicopter to public event in Aurora
* Sara Wojcicki Jimenez won't run for re-election to Illinois House
* Illinois governor says immigration bill 'very reasonable'
* Bloomberg puts $2 million into pro-soda tax ads
* Illinois Policy Institute cartoon sparks racial clash

* Join Crain's 40 Under 40 Alumni Network
* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* Coming soon to a strip mall near you: An MRI provider
* The biggest wallet in Chicago tech
* Peoples Gas pipes may not be exploding, but replacement budget is


* Man shot, critically wounded in Back of the Yards
* 62-year-old man among 3 shot in Austin
* Dear Abby: Woman’s big family grates on her husband
* 3 wounded in Austin shooting
* Man shot in Humboldt Park
* Another pick for Bears’ Mike Glennon, but TD too, in win vs Cardinals
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Aug. 20, 2017
* American Girl’s first Native Hawaiian doll set to go on sale
* Jonathan Bullard, Bears’ D take another step forward vs. Cardinals
* 16-year-old boy wounded in East Garfield Park shooting


* Review: Michael Mina lands in Chicago with a ritzy take on 1920s Paris
* On Illinois farms, where labor is tight, foreign workers are welcomed
* Chicago won't see eclipse spectacle of Carbondale, but excitement palpable
* Mike Glennon has done nothing to deserve Bears' starting quarterback job
* Mike Glennon underwhelms as Bears hold on for 24-23 preseason win over Cardinals
* Derek Holland flops in Texas homecoming as Rangers rout White Sox 17-7
* 1 dead, 6 wounded during Saturday shootings
* Massive counterprotest against white nationalism upstages 'free speech rally' in Boston
* Man grazed in head during confrontation with police in Gage Park
* No Powerball jackpot winners; prize jumps to $650 million for Wednesday drawing


» City: Graffiti Complaints Down 18 Percent
» Rep. Wojcicki Jimenez Not Seeking Reelection
» State Week: Fair Rallies, Fox News, Funding Schools
» Chicago Charters Seek To Grow As CPS Enrollment Declines
» Bloomberg Funds $2 Million In Ads Backing Soda Tax
» Rauner: ‘Nothing’ Stipulated On School Funding
» How Chicago Homicides In 2017 Stack Up Against Years Past
» Illinois Officials Warn About Phony Eclipse Glasses
» Report: Link Between Chicago Murders And Illegal Immigration ‘Groundless’
» Democrats Take Aim At Rauner, Trump


* Statehouse Insider: Rauner tells reporters to not question wife's role in the administration
* Our View: General Assembly needs to override veto of Debt Transparency Act
* Bernard Schoenburg: Kennedy gets poetic at Democrat Day brunch
* Scott Reeder: Hate with a haircut
* United Way: Community health centers provide quality, affordable care
* Regie Dale: My testimony is my resume
* Rauner signs law to eliminate township collector in Sangamon County
* Rauner signs bill creating agency to govern ALPLM
* Thumbs Up: To statehouse action that should lead to a better Illinois
* New pharmacy rules in Illinois aim to improve patient safety


* John M. Carnaghi
* Gaila L. Hampton
* Gerald 'Jerry' Casper
* James 'Jim' Phillips
* Robert J. Lyons
* Glenn Morgan
* Howard Lee Bowlin
* Stacy N. Morehead
* Robert B. Wehrle
* Mary Louise Brown


* Carr, Goff shine in Rams 24-21 exhibition win over Raiders
* Philippine churches to ring bells to protest drug killings
* FANTASY PLAYS: Wide receivers more important as game shifts
* Sox give up 5-run lead in lopsided loss
* Thompson's 109-yard return highlights Bears victory

* Hultgren asks FEMA to help in Kane, McHenr...
* Hultgren marks 'Startup Day' with stories ...
* Hultgren backs change to Voting Rights Act...
* Illinois lawmakers blast President Trump's...
* Oswego Pastor Gives Prayer on US House Flo...
* Trump's 'Both Sides' Comments Draw Harsh L...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* Reps. Randy Hultgren, Peter Roskam address...
* Local Officials Forming Taskforce Amid Cat...
* Local Legislators Speak Out on Charlottesv...

* Three Senators Ask The DOJ To Investigate ......

* Senator Duckworth Tours Union Station Ahea......

* To Infinity And Beyond!
* EXTRA: 66 years since Gaedel had his "moment" in the baseball sun
* Crain's: Rehabs stabilizing market in this South Side neighborhood
* Our catalog of Hitting Left.
* You fascists are bound to lose.
* Construction To Begin On Lawrence & Wilson Viaducts September 18
* The vandalism of an Abe Lincoln bust...
* Chicagoetry: Ozymandias In High Definition
* Rank and file outrage over Trumka on Trump council. “I cannot sit on a council for a president that tolerates terrorism. I resign, effective immediately,” tweets Dick.
* The statue to the union war dead in Charlottesville.


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Is Google’s mistake our gain? Android Oreo hinted at in teaser video filename
* NASA Shares Ways to Stream the 2017 Solar Eclipse on iOS and Apple TV
* Prisma shifts focus to b2b with an API for AI-powered mobile effects
* Punching below “average,” Nokia 8 priced in Germany at €578
* Pre-order perks for Galaxy Note 8 teased by Blass [UPDATE]
* “The world’s smallest laser” is one of the next accessories for the Essential Phone
* Samsung Galaxy S8 Active is here! Finally a decent box

* Cease featured in duel of the day
* For Abreu, near-cycle dimmed by 'tough' loss
* White Sox overpowered after scoring 5 in first
* Fulmer to make first big league start Monday
* Giolito to make White Sox debut on Tuesday
* White Sox put Lopez on DL with back strain
* Gonzalez seeks another quality start in finale


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller