Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Um, probably not
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Um, probably not

Monday, Aug 20, 2012

* The conservative Daily Caller is practically giddy today

President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president. […]

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.

Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.

* But Lynn Sweet has some recent county-wide poll numbers from Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s campaign which shows that President Obama has high favorables and high job approval ratings in Cook

% FAVORABLE OPINION

67 Obama
54 Emanuel
53 Preckwinkle
53 Madigan, Lisa
41 Quinn

% NEUTRAL

21 Madigan, Lisa
21 Emanuel
20 Preckwinkle
20 Quinn
13 Obama

% UNFAVORABLE

37 Quinn
23 Emanuel
20 Obama
19 Madigan, Lisa
10 Preckwinkle

% JOB APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL

72/27 Obama
69/26 Emanuel
67/15 Preckwinkle
54/43 Quinn
*Madigan not included [Emphasis added.]

I wouldn’t bet the farm that Romney has a shot in Illinois. He’ll do much better in the suburbs and Downstate than John McCain four years ago. But a shot at winning Illinois? Not yet.

Also, notice Gov. Quinn’s ratings. Not good at all. The person who probably should be worried is Gov. Pat Quinn, not President Obama.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

33 Comments
  1. - tominchicago - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:36 am:

    Yes, Romney should invest a lot time trying to capture Illinois.


  2. - walkinfool - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:47 am:

    Great! I hope Romney suporters spend a lot of money in Illinois.


  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:47 am:

    Giddy is a polite word for it.

    In the Cook County favorables, who’s the “Madigan?”


  4. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:58 am:

    I’ll add that Romney probably has a better chance of carrying Illinois than he does the state where he was governor and where his campaign is based.

    Somebody named Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts; the current candidate doesn’t like to talk about it for some reason.

    Dollars for doughnuts he doesn’t carry the state where he was born and raised and where his father was governor. Nate Silver gives him a one in five chance of carrying Michigan, and Nate’s better than Lefty Rosenthal.

    Utah’s in the bank.


  5. - cover - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:03 am:

    If Illinois is even close in the presidential race, Romney would be a landslide winner. Not gonna happen, unless the economy goes into a tailspin again in the next 2 months.


  6. - olddog - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:05 am:

    @ Rich

    Which Madigan? I missed the original story.


  7. - Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:05 am:

    ===who’s the “Madigan?” ===

    Lisa.


  8. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:07 am:

    Intrigued by Emanuel’s numbers. Me thinks that unfavorable rating will grow/fail in direct proportion to the city’s homicide rate.


  9. - Downstate - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:13 am:

    It’s all about enthusiasm (and turnout).

    Romney doesn’t have to spend a dime in the state. The Taxed Enough Already Crowd will be driving the voter turnout in downstate Illinois.

    Wonder what impact the union’s derision of Quinn will have on their GOTV effort for the Dems. They clearly won’t displace Madigan as speaker. But wouldn’t it throw a scare into him if Obama only won Illinois by a whisker?

    Looks like the unions could gain HUGE political capital by NOT working for the Dems in 2012.


  10. - Rick - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:37 am:

    Rich is right. Nothing to see here as far as the Prez race is concerned….but the Quinn numbers really jump out. I doubt an incumbent Dem has ever had worse numbers in Cook County without being under indictment, which could signal real problems for him in a Dem primary. What’s more, the Democratic Party’s financial and organizational base, (organized labor,) has turned against him. Not sure what he does to pull out of this tailspin…passing pension reform in November will help him close the leadership gap, but only further alienate the base.


  11. - Curious - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:40 am:

    Why is Preckwinkle doing a poll. I think she has ambitions for higher office.


  12. - Team Sleep - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:41 am:

    As someone who has either worked or volunteered in many campaigns, I can unequivocally state that campaign staffers and trusted advisors must understand which areas are in play and which areas are not in play. Illinois has very expensive media markets and has not gone red in a presidential since 1988. Mitt needs to spend serious dough in Ohio and Michigan and the RNC should realize Illinois could certainly be in play in 2016. There’s reason to expend large sums of money in and reassign staff to Illinois when those resources are needed elsewhere. If Treasurer Rutherford wants to use some of his top staffers and campaign warchest to help Mitt Romney in Illinois, that’s his prerogative.


  13. - Backwards - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:41 am:

    “unless the economy goes into a tailspin again in the next 2 months”….would that be a different tailspin that the economy has been in for the last 4 years?


  14. - Michelle Flaherty - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:10 am:

    All Romney has to do is sit back and let the Pat Quinn grassroots campaign work its magic.


  15. - reformer - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:31 am:

    Quinn has a ratio of favorable/unfavorable of 41%-37% in his strongest county. That suggests he wouldnt garner such a huge victory margin next time, unless the GOP nominates Brady again.


  16. - titan - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:42 am:

    If Romeny is even close in Illinois, he won’t care one bit that the loses the state (he’ll be too busy planning his inagural events and ramping up to be President).


  17. - Bill F. - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:04 pm:

    “Michael McKeon is one of the most accurate pollsters out there,” said no one, ever.


  18. - train111 - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:56 pm:

    Don’t we have at least one of these “Illinois is compettitive on the Presidential front for the GOP” polls every election? The GOP puts out a few press releases. Giddy party hacks post on every forum how things are going their way and that they will win this year–and then–Nothing!!! After a few days the whole charade is forgotten.

    train111


  19. - jeff in gold - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    Obama got 72% of Cook county in 2008. If he gets 67%(Job approval)of Cook county this year, he will still have a 800,000 vote margin. He will not lose Illinois, but if he has that level of attrition nationwide he is not going to be reelected.


  20. - Cincinnatus - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:53 pm:

    - Team Sleep - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:41 am:

    “If Treasurer Rutherford wants to use some of his top staffers and campaign warchest to help Mitt Romney in Illinois, that’s his prerogative.”

    Certainly a good investment if Rutherford is serious about some appointment in the Romney administration.

    Following up on my Ryan prediction from last month, I think that Obama will win Illinois by 9-11%, far below the current 21% polling average. Romney will win the Presidency 53-47% and by ~40 electoral votes.


  21. - Downstate - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:16 pm:

    Cincinnatus,
    I think you are on the right track. Even though Obama is even in a few swing states, there are still a large number of undecided voters.
    Undecideds rarely if ever swing to the incumbent, particularly in such a horrible economy. Assume that undecideds go to Romney 60-40, in the key states, and we are looking at a new President.


  22. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:41 pm:

    –Romney will win the Presidency 53-47% and by ~40 electoral votes.–

    Nostradamus, your math is very interesting, to say the least.

    If Romney gets 53% of the popular vote nationally, he will win in a landslide electorally.

    But, rounding up the usual suspects of competitive states, show us how he gets to 53% nationally and only wins the electoral by 40.

    It doesn’t work that way, just on the math, in a, largely, winner-take-all electoral college. Check out 1960, 1968 and 2000 for reference.


  23. - Nathan Hale - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 3:00 pm:

    Cincinnatus - I think you are spot on.

    It should get real interesting if Quinn runs against Dillard or Rutherford…


  24. - amalia - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Steinberg column in the Sun Times on Preckwinkle and former Medical Examiner Jones was quite interesting. Jones is well respected for her medical knowledge and she really blasts Preckwinkle.


  25. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 4:34 pm:

    – Even though Obama is even in a few swing states, there are still a large number of undecided voters.–

    Where are the large number of undecided voters? Pretend we’re from Missouri and show me.

    Obama is leading by aggregate polls in all swing states but NC.

    Let’ face it. Romney has to run the table in the swing states. If he doesn’t put Florida and NC in the bank soon, it’s katie-bar-the-door.

    He has to spend a lot of money trying to secure those two crucial states while leaving Virginia and Ohio twisting in the wind, and trying to play catchup in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    But without Florida and NC, it ain’t happening for Romney.

    Since the Nixon/Reagan/Bush I GOP landslides, the high point for GOP candidates in the electoral college is 286 for Bush II in 2004.

    Not a lot of wiggle room there.

    You can’t forego the West Coast, the East Coast from Maine to DC and the Great Lakes — where the educated, cultured working people with money who built the country live — and expect to win.

    The last president who ran Mitt’s strategy was Jefferson Davis.


  26. - Marty - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 5:24 pm:

    Whoever wrote that Daily Caller piece knows nothing about Illinois


  27. - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 6:15 pm:

    A Republican pollster is saying Romney has a shot at beating Obama in Illinois?

    He sounds like a genius. I hope Republican campaigns don’t use him. It would be a real danger to Democratic campaigns if such a genius deployed his full talents.


  28. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 6:41 pm:

    – Jones is well respected for her medical knowledge–

    But maybe not so much on her stacking of stiffs.

    The outcry on her firing has been…. non-existent.

    Seriously, no one but Neil Steinberg? That’ll stir the pot.

    Who’s the clout clamoring for Neil Steinberg columns, anyway? Richard Roeper fans?

    Put them both in a cage-match with Kass, and we can all ignore the one who survives.

    Sponsored by Bob Greene and Boredom.


  29. - anon sequitor - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 6:42 pm:

    Bill F nailed it.
    Never, ever believe in a McKeon poll.


  30. - amalia - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 7:58 pm:

    @wordslinger, I urge you to read again the comments from County Board members during the controv. I do agree that Neil Steinberg is lacking, but the positive comments from Commissioners about her ability are what stick with me.


  31. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:05 pm:

    Amailia, although we don’t always agree, you’re about the brightest banana in the bunch.

    But I was a cops and courts reporter for many years and scooted around in the nasty places for a long time.

    Believe me, if the stiffs are being stacked up like that, if you’re in charge, you better howl, becasue you no one else cares.

    Nasty business. Not one you want to be in. It didn’t turn out great for her.


  32. - Southern Peggy R - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 11:06 pm:

    Wordslinger: “You can’t forego the West Coast, the East Coast from Maine to DC and the Great Lakes — where the educated, cultured working people with money who built the country live — and expect to win.”

    Wow! So, only “educated cultured” people “built the country”? Wow. I know many a well-educated person who gets it that the ditch-digger, construction workers, farmers, etc., are those who “built” this country. Even Ms Warren knows the roads are necessary for success. What snobbery! Oh, and Nixon apparently won his landslide though a liberal journalist could not name one person who she knew voted for him.


  33. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 21, 12 @ 6:54 am:

    Southern Peggy R, should we put you down as being against education and culture? Whoops, you were already on the list.

    It’s not snobbery to say that it was the Yankees who did the heavy lifting and have had to drag the Rebs along with them every step of the way. Just the facts.

    Plenty of hard workers among those Yankees, too. That’ the point, actually.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* MWRD President Spyropoulos interested in AG
* Yes, Jesse White is (still) running for reelection
* Dart won't run for AG
* Question of the day
* Kadner: Madigan "decided his career was more important than his daughter’s"
* Best Team In America™
* Trover lands very well
* *** UPDATED x1 - Proft responds *** Durkin asked about Proft
* "Wanted" fliers distributed on Rep. David Harris
* DGA lauches two-city tour, Medium page
* Not if, but when and how high for gas tax?
* Rauner restores childcare cuts
* Raoul lets his temper show during WVON interview
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Drury says he's in the AG race
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Pritzker nearly pulls off upset caucus win
* *** UPDATED x2 - Burke says no - Hynes says no *** Burke won't say which daughter wants to run for AG as Dan Hynes mulls a bid
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner now undecided on HB40
* The governor probably needs to get his stories straight
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Biss denounces Rauner's plans for Child Care As.....
* Ogle, Carroll among counties eligible for feder.....
* Streator lawmaker co-sponsored legislation - My.....
* Area residents tell Quincy radio station they'r.....


* Palestinian activist deported to Jordan from Chicago
* Fugitive Chicago police sergeant arrested after 15 years
* Sessions: Sanctuary cities undermine law's moral authority
* The Latest: Palestinian activist deported to Jordan from US
* College football players face felonies in attack on teammate
* Gary man gets 195 years for murders of brothers, 3rd person
* The Latest: Football players accused of hazing suspended
* Rauner signs law tightening civil forfeiture requirements
* Indiana Board of Finance OKs $3.1M loan for Gary schools
* US appeals ruling that blocks cutting off sanctuary cities

* Report: Payments for treatment of addictions, mental illness often denied
* Republican McClure will run against McCann in 50th Senate district
* Republican McClure will run against McCann in the 50th Senate district
* Rep. Drury leaves governor's race to run for attorney general
* Rauner signs revamp of EDGE business tax-credit
* Rauner to lawmakers: Help me balance the budget
* Bernard Schoenburg: Running mates help balance governor tickets
* Statehouse Insider: AFSCME contract suit may not be heard until next year
* Chris Kennedy and running mate bring anti-violence campaign to central Illinois
* Rauner ending trade mission with visit to Chinese university

* United's turnaround wobbles after airline fare war jolts investors
* Centegra turns to layoffs, outsourcing jobs to stop financial bleeding
* NU law school dean stepping down
* Here's the first Dem going after Lisa Madigan's job
* Art Institute school taps new board chair


* 1 dead, 10 wounded in Tuesday shootings on South, West sides
* 3 people shot in Bronzeville
* Police: Man shot to death in Longwood Manor
* ‘Battle of the Sexes’ hits the sweet spot where comedy and sports meet
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Sept. 20, 2017
* Dear Abby: My husband watches porn late at night
* Woman struck by Red Line train on Near North Side
* Miami woman killed in Winnetka crash
* Cubs beat Rays 2-1 for seventh straight, start working on Hangover II
* Political activist Rasmea Odeh a symbol of deportation’s many faces


* Man fatally struck by Amtrak train at Northbrook Metra station Sunday
* Magnitude 7.1 earthquake kills at least 226 as buildings collapse in central Mexico
* Mueller's office questions Deputy AG Rosenstein amid probe of Comey firing
* Kim Kardashian West added to Chicago Ideas Week lineup
* Alex Gordon hits MLB's record-setting 5,694th HR of season
* Domingo Santana homers, Brewers keep pace in NL Central with 1-0 win
* Mike Montgomery's six innings of one-hit ball lead Cubs to 2-1 victory
* Anonymous letter triggers water plant review
* New GOP health care bill hits hurdle in resistance from governors
* Trump defends ‘America first’ foreign policy at U.N., threatens to ‘totally destroy’ North Korea


» Palestinian Activist To Be Deported To Jordan From Chicago
» Looking For Analog: Old Button-Mashing Arcades Come Back For A New Generation
» County In Illinois To Use Grant To Aid Endangered Bumblebee
» Canada Could Stop Dealing With Boeing Over Dispute
» Currency Exchanges Pushing Fee Increase
» 3 Big Takeaways On Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s Decision To Not Run For Reelection
» Judge: Sessions Can't Deny Grant Money For Sanctuary Cities
» State Week: Blagojevich Speaks; (Lisa) Madigan & Currie Leaving
» Illinois Attorney General Won't Seek Re-election In 2018
» House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie Won't Run Again


* Report: Payments for treatment of addictions, mental illness often denied
* E.J. Dionne: The priority is still to save Obamacare
* Over DACA, an acute case of Trump panic syndrome
* Ralph Martire: Illinois needs to make higher education a priority
* Catherine Rampell: A chilling study shows college students hostile toward free speech
* Michael Gerson: The dangerous triumph of tribalism in America
* Republican McClure will run against McCann in 50th Senate district
* Rep. Drury leaves governor's race to run for attorney general
* Marc A. Thiessen: Hillary Clinton still doesn't get 'what happened' in the 2016 election
* Rauner signs revamp of EDGE business tax-credit


* Bryan Edmonds
* Dr. Michael E. Althoff
* Harry E. Homan
* Joyce Alexander
* Jeffrey R. Odaniell
* Frances J. Calcaterra
* Wm. Jordan Golliher
* Dennis James Furlong
* Carol I. Groves
* Bruce M. Hornberger


* Mexico civil defense agency raises quake death toll to 226, more than half in capital
* Girls tennis scoreboard: Tuesday, Sept. 19, results
* Girls volleyball scoreboard: Tuesday, Sept. 19, results
* Girls golf scoreboard: Tuesday, Sept. 19, results
* Girls cross country scoreboard: Tuesday, Sept. 19. results

* Congressman Randy Hultgren Visits Raue Cen...
* Hultgren pushes for CHIP funding ahead of ...
* Indivisible billboard targets Hultgren, Ro...
* Hultgren pleads for continued funding of f...
* 14th District Democratic candidates square...
* Montgomery mayor hosts health care forum a...
* Looking at Fintech through the Legislative...
* Hultgren calls on FEMA to help assess Nort...
* Congressmen Say They Will Seek Federal Ass...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren announces 2017 Congres...

* Key Democrat: 'Naive' to think DACA will p......
* Airport gets $3 million in federal grants ......

* Chicago mom of murdered sex-trafficking vi......

* Does anyone seriously think people are better off living under Lake Shore Dr.?
* Learn About The Improvements Set For Clarendon Park's Fieldhouse At Open House Wednesday Evening
* Great News! Elevators and Escalators Are Part of Uptown Rapid Transit For First Time, Beginning Wednesday
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Panno honored by Livingston County Board of REALTORS®
* Magazine article highlights friendship started at REALTOR® Conference & Expo
* Beachwood Photo Booth: Devilish Dr. Phil
* REALTOR® siblings organized their own supply drive for Texas flood victims
* REALTOR® siblings organized their own supply drive for Texas flood victims
* Chicago rapper Warhol.SS lands half his new EP on a Soundcloud chart


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Promise Technology's 'Apollo' Personal Cloud Storage Device Supports iOS 11 Files App
* Galaxy Note 8 vs Galaxy S8+: Samsung’s Best Phablet? (Video)
* Android Oreo is Coming to the Essential Phone by Year’s End
* Huawei Mate 10 prices to rank fairly high in China
* T-Mobile Subscribers Can Now Use 50GB of Data Before Facing De-Prioritization
* LG V30 shipping to Korea from today, but no word about US
* How to Use the New Files App in iOS 11

* Quiet bats waste Giolito's solid effort
* Shields knows not to take Astros lightly
* Sox Century: Sept. 19, 1917
* Giolito holds his own against Astros
* Quiet bats waste Giolito's solid effort
* Shields knows not to take Astros lightly
* Astros 3, White Sox 1: A few bright spots amid lots of strikeouts


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller