Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Dem poll: Bustos within two
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Dem poll: Bustos within two

Friday, Sep 28, 2012

* Democratic congressional candidate Cheri Bustos has released new poll numbers which purport to show her race against Republican freshman Bobby Schilling is neck and neck. From the pollster, GBA Strategies

Democrat Cheri Bustos is surging in her race against incumbent Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling in Illinois’ new 17th congressional district. A new survey1 of 600 likely voters shows Bustos has closed the gap dramatically since advertising in the campaign began, pulling to within 45 – 47 percent—well within the survey’s margin of error.

But the pollster then did some weird voodoo, which makes me uncomfortable…

In a vote simulation where undecided voters are allocated by their partisanship, Bustos and Schilling are completely tied 49 - 49 percent.

I really wish campaigns wouldn’t do that stuff without at least offering up some detailed explanations. It undermines their numbers.

* Schilling released numbers last month showing him leading the race by 13 points, 50-37. But the new polling shows President Obama is doing very well in the district

President Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by a wide 54 – 41 percent margin in this race.

So, the unmentioned bottom line here is that Bustos is still vastly underperforming the top of the ticket.

* Methodology

Survey of 600 likely voters conducted by GBA Strategies September 24-26, 2012. Respondents were reached on land lines and cell phones. Results have a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

* Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC’s latest TV ad blasts away at Schilling

* Related…

* VIDEO: Bustos and Schilling debate

* Chuck Sweeny: Cheri Bustos, Bobby Schilling on Rock River Rumble

- Posted by Rich Miller        

14 Comments
  1. - Cincinnatus - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:39 pm:

    No crosstabs = crap poll.


  2. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:49 pm:

    Hard to see how both Obama and Schilling could be up 13 in that district.


  3. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 12:56 pm:

    Word, the Schilling poll was from over a month ago.

    Also, that area splits their tickets. Lane Evans won in 1984 by the same margin as Ronald Reagan, if memory serves.


  4. - wordslinger - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:01 pm:

    Good points.

    Reagan was unique, though. He made a lot of Dems ticket-splitters all over the country.


  5. - Anonymous - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:09 pm:

    Rich,

    I know Lane Evans… Bobby Schilling is not Lane Evans.


  6. - Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:11 pm:

    Point taken.


  7. - Liandro - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:29 pm:

    Pretty simple–Schilling is a hard-working guy who built his success the hard way, and people respect that. Bustos, on the other hand, made it where she is because the machine, and her godfather Dick Durbin, backed backed her. There are a lot of people on both sides who recognize the difference in candidate quality.

    By the same token, there are plenty of R’s in the area who have one or two Dem’s they pull the ballet for.


  8. - Shore - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:33 pm:

    there was a lot of bad stuff in that oppo file about schilling you posted so that this pac wouldn’t have to take a cookie cutter ad they’re probably running in 8 other districts. Democrats seem to be spending all of their energy in Illinois boosting duckworth and punching walsh instead of trying to also pick up these other pieces.


  9. - Liandro - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    I meant ballot…Rich’s ballet comment must still be in my head!


  10. - bustos fan - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 1:42 pm:

    What does this mean:

    So, the unmentioned bottom line here is that Bustos is still vastly underperforming the top of the ticket.


  11. - Responsa - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 2:06 pm:

    ==What does this mean:==

    Bustos fan—It means that President Obama is the top of the Dem ticket. In the poll he is possibly leading his presidential opponent by double digits. The poll has Bustos possibly neck and neck with Schilling, her congressional opponent. (Not double digits ahead.) Therefore she is vastly underperforming Obama. Obama seems to be getting Dem and Indy voters that are not translating down to Bustos. Not good news for her.


  12. - Tom Joad - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 2:53 pm:

    It seems odd that only 5% are undecided in the Obama race, and that the undecided in the Bustos race is 5% or less. That is an amazing amount of name recognition at this point for a new candidate. Good for her!


  13. - mokenavince - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 3:58 pm:

    Obama will have coattails that should help in the
    mid-west pick up some new seats of Democrats.I don’t consider Indiana the mid-west more like Mars.


  14. - Disconnect - Friday, Sep 28, 12 @ 4:23 pm:

    Seems like an odd ad if Bustos is taking PAC money as well. I presume she is, but maybe I’ve got that wrong.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Madigan says he met with Rauner today, asked him to focus on budget
* Question of the day
* Our two economies
* *** UPDATED x2 - IDOC responds - Manar responds *** Rauner rescinds IDOC nurse layoffs
* It's just a bill
* Goldberg says Rauner would sign a stand-alone K-12 funding bill
* Daiber says he voted for Hardiman
* "As soon as he gets that call, he’s immediately changing his number"
* House advances equal pay bill
* Animal stories
* Oppo dump!
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban Mayors Band Together Against Property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....
* Suburban mayors band together against property .....


* Suburban mayors band together against property tax freeze
* Central Illinois schools work to repair elevated lead levels
* The Latest: Mother of dead girl won't talk to detectives
* Illinois comptroller using tax-season revenue to pay bills
* Illinois' first family shares temporary home with fox family
* Coroner: Worker had heart attack before drowning in river
* How United selects passengers for involuntary bumping
* Authorities: Body of missing toddler found in Illinois home
* Authorities: Body of missing toddler found in Illinois home
* EXCHANGE: Entrepreneur finds home in fitness community

* State rep: Rauner will rescind prison nurse layoff notices
* Cash flow from tax filings allows payment of some overdue health care bills
* House approves bill prohibiting employers from asking about previous pay
* Kicked out before kindergarten? Officials concerned about preschool expulsions
* Search continues in Joliet Township for missing toddler
* Rauners find family of foxes at Illinois State Fairgrounds residence
* Legislation prioritizing Illinois- and American-made products passes House
* Illinois board terminates Hastert's state lawmaker pension
* Concern expressed over rise in preschooler expulsions
* Women march outside as abortion bill debated inside

* Groupon veteran joins ParkWhiz
* Kirkland passes Baker, becomes No. 2 U.S. law firm
* Kirkland passes Baker to become No. 2 U.S. firm
* United's flight from hell: What went wrong and what will change
* Richard Driehaus is on a mission to preserve—buildings and cars


* Laurie Metcalf, ‘War Paint’ leads nominated for Drama Desk Awards
* 9-year sentence for Rockford-area doctor Charles Dehaan
* 9 charged with Crystal Lake fight that led to stabbing
* Anthony Swarzak putting his career back on track
* Suspect in strangling of Schaumburg woman to appear in court
* $4 billion plan to improve, widen Tri-State Tollway approved
* Unique love-drama-thriller ‘Sleight’ has surprises up its sleeve
* In tweetstorm, Trump takes aim at Democrats on spending bill
* Draft day podcast: Solomon Thomas, Jonathan Allen talk Bears
* Reward offered for man wanted in Naperville Walgreens robbery


* Illinois Tollway board OKs $4 billion Tri-State rebuilding, widening plan
* Geneva woman pleads guilty to killing husband with poisoned smoothie
* Police: Missing toddler found dead in deplorable home where 'squatters' often lived
* Two U.S. troops die battling Islamic State militants in Afghanistan
* Appellate court deals City Hall a loss with Expedia tax reversal
* 2 Cook jail officers seriously hurt by 3 shooting suspects: Sheriff
* Why one therapist chose to reveal her own painful past
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 4/27/17
* Longtime Lake County Board member Audrey Nixon dead at 81
* Pentagon to investigate ousted Trump adviser Michael Flynn over foreign payments


» Illinois House Democrats Vote to Strengthen Chicago Teachers Union
» Legislators End Hastert's $28k Pension — Is That Legal?
» What An Attempted Rape On Chicago’s West Side Says About Trust Between The Community And Police
» Illinois Board Terminates Hastert's State Lawmaker Pension
» New Chicago Graduation Mandate Earns Mixed Reviews
» Death Of Giant Rabbit Adds To United Airlines Woes
» House Democrats Pass Abortion Legislation
» AARP Illinois Director On Budget Impasse: "Enough is Enough"
» Few College Counselors At CPS Add Uncertainty To Post-Grad Push
» Springfield Women's March Focuses On Democratic Causes, Candidates


* State rep: Rauner will rescind prison nurse layoff notices
* Cash flow from tax filings allows payment of some overdue health care bills
* House approves bill prohibiting employers from asking about previous pay
* Bernard Schoenburg: 2018 race is on, with candidates at Statehouse
* Kicked out before kindergarten? Officials concerned about preschool expulsions
* Our View: Reviving Police Community Review Commission a good call
* Search continues in Joliet Township for missing toddler
* Rauners find family of foxes at Illinois State Fairgrounds residence
* Legislation prioritizing Illinois- and American-made products passes House
* Illinois board terminates Hastert's state lawmaker pension


* Car in water, driver trapped, so here's what these teens did
* House backs requiring cursive writing in schools
* Police seek clues to leather bag that contained infant remains
* Kampsville man Mike Dean pleads to aggravated assault, possession charges
* Unemployment down for Decatur area in March
* House panel seeks charges for firm in Clinton email case
* Maryville woman turning 100 says 'I don't seem like I would be 100'
* Maryville woman turning 100 says 'I don't feel like I would be 100'
* Beiser supports efforts to make it easier to claim life insurance benefits
* Noon update: Amanda's picks, best pop albums, meetings for bus routes and bridge


* United dragging report: 'Our review shows that many things went wrong that day'
* Nine charged in Crystal Lake attempted robbery
* Beach Park man sentenced to 16 years in prison for hotel robbery
* Tollway board OKs Tri-State widening over objections from some suburbs
* Northwest suburban police blotter

* Rep. Randy Hultgren on Trump's Foreign and...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren fields questions at Le...
* League of Women Voters event in St. Charle...
* Randy Hultgren to participate in League of...
* GOP Bill Would Curb Shareholder Activism -...
* Batavia's Congressman Reacts to Missile St...
* GOP congressman appears to distance himsel...
* Batavia's Congressman Holding Service Acad...
* Oswego's Congressman Reacts to Missile Str...
* Veterans seek answers at forum with US Rep...

* 'Brave' Syrian women answer call to make t......
* 'Brave' Syrian women answer call to make t......
* 'Brave' Syrian women answer call to make t......
* 'Brave' Syrian women answer call to make t......
* 'Brave' Syrian women answer call to make t......

* Tammy Duckworth Was Unimpressed By The Whi......

* Batinick: Democrat spending plan is guaranteed uncertainty
* Here’s How Wrong Past Environmental Predictions Have Been
* Former Sun-Times publisher returns to Chicago—to represent Canada
* Thorner: Is Tucker Up to Keeping O'Reilly's #1 Cable News Rating?
* 16 Year Old Threatened By Principal
* Reps. Wehrli and Ives call for Auditor General to be ousted
* Where's Weyermuller? Finding "new" Republicans at John Marshall Law School
* Skillicorn sounds alarm about state's late assistance payments to area schools
* Analysis: Illinois lawmakers rarely know how much bills cost before voting for them
* Where are they now? Former Illinois senator leads effort to end child abuse


* Rauner Administration Seeks to Rid State Government of Illegal Hires Made Under Previous Administration
* Genetic testing confirms Illinois’ new state-record crappie was a hybrid
* New Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army invested - Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Director Erica Jeffries Named Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Honors over 150 Vietnam War Veterans
* Illinois Awarded $16 Million Grant to Fight Opioid Crisis - Funding expands access to treatment and prevention for opioid and heroin crisis

  
* Samsung assures customers there’s no defect with the Galaxy S8 display
* [TA Deals] BESTEK’s portable international voltage converter is just $35! (41% off)
* Affordable BLU R1 Plus available at Best Buy and Amazon with big battery, Android 6.0
* New Gboard update comes with new languages and text-editing tools
* B&H now also discounts 16GB Moto G4 Plus, from $230 to $160
* Samsung Galaxy S8+ vs Google Pixel XL: A closer contest than you may expect (Video)
* Report: Apple Music revamp planned for iOS 11, service to include up to 10 original series

* Melky gets bowled over while catching line drive
* Inbox: Will prospects join White Sox rotation?
* Dunning dominates again
* Backed by bats, Quintana deals a sweep
* Avi setting sail for White Sox
* Backed by bats, Quintana deals a sweep
* Abreu exits with right hip flexor strain


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller