Has the danger passed?
Friday, Oct 26, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The FreedomWorks super PAC is reportedly spending $1.5 million on TV ads against Tammy Duckworth starting Monday, so this poll has to give the Duckworth campaign some peace of mind…
With less than two weeks until the election, Duckworth had the backing of 50 percent to 40 percent for Walsh, the controversial tea party-backed incumbent. An additional 9 percent were undecided, which is significant this close to the Nov. 6 balloting, particularly for a highly visible contest that has been combative for months. […]
Independents are a key swing bloc of voters who often decide elections, and the poll found they make up more than a third of people casting ballots in the new district, which takes in northwest suburban Cook and eastern DuPage counties. Duckworth, a disabled Iraq War veteran making her second try for Congress, holds a 48 percent to 37 percent advantage over Walsh among independent voters. […]
Then there’s that gender gap. Among women, Duckworth scored 54 percent support to Walsh’s 34 percent. At the same time, the bravado Walsh often displays in decrying political correctness hasn’t earned him any advantage among men. While the Republican has a 46 percent to 45 percent advantage over Duckworth among male voters, it is statistically insignificant.
Another obstacle for Walsh is widespread discontent with federal lawmakers, particularly Republicans. Only 12 percent of the district’s voters approve of the job Congress is doing; 77 percent disapprove. Moreover, 69 percent of the district’s voters disapprove of how Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs. When asked whether Republicans or Democrats in Washington, including President Barack Obama, were to blame for gridlock, 41 percent cited the GOP compared with 26 percent who cited Democrats.
That’s two recent polls with big Duckworth leads. It’s a trend and she’s likely stopped the bleeding.
* More…
- Madison - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 11:14 am:
Start of a trend? Or just goofy Walsh as an outlier?
Has anybody run across any exit polling on early voters?
- wordslinger - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 11:35 am:
–Only 12 percent of the district’s voters approve of the job Congress is doing; 77 percent disapprove. Moreover, 69 percent of the district’s voters disapprove of how Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs.–
Yikes.
- Hail 4B - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 11:44 am:
As bad as a campaign Duckworth has been running, I was never worried about her chances. Joe Walsh is a tea party conservative in a district that is not. He might be an underrated campaigner, but I don’t see a tea party conservative who loves going on cable news to espouse views that are not popular within the district, getting the 5-10 percent of Obama voters he needs for another term.
- walkinfool - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 11:51 am:
Freedomworks (Dick Armey and David Koch) and their ilk have so much money, they are just throwing it around by the millions, without too much care for the likely return on investment. It might be their big last stand on behalf of the Tea Party.
- Madison - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 12:03 pm:
I agree with Sling to a certain extent, the GOP majority in congress is despised;however, people still believe that while congress is a problem, their congressman is not a part of it. While both Walsh and the Duckster have unusually bad campaign management, I was hoping that exit polling of early voters would confirm a trend to one party or the other.
- Cal Skinner - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 12:19 pm:
Got cross tabs.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 12:25 pm:
===Got cross tabs. ===
Well, then post ‘em.
- anon - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 12:34 pm:
Sounds great for Duckworth, but remember at this point in her last election she was “up” 14% over roskam. Would love to see the cross tabs though.
- Cal Skinner - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 1:33 pm:
It was a question without a question mark.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 1:36 pm:
Tribune never posts its crosstabs, Cal. You should know that.
- Dan - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 2:37 pm:
Why did the Now or Never back decide to spend their $1mill in Zona and not on Walsh? Seems to me that there isn”t any time slots left to fill with all the Biggert/Foster and Schneider/Dold ads on tv!
- Wumpus - Friday, Oct 26, 12 @ 3:02 pm:
CROSSTABS! I think she is overemphesizing her military record…or at least did in her initial run 13 campaigns ago. I did a little research on my own and was very impressed with her resume beyond her honorable military service. I hope Walsh wins as I resent the way they tried to fix the race. Does she live in the same home that she did when she ran in the 6th?