* He’s talking a good game, but this is the third time he’s talked a good game, so we’ll have to wait and see…
Former White House Chief of Staff William Daley talked a lot about a lack of “leadership” in Illinois government Thursday as he continued to mull a run for governor in 2014.
“I am thinking about it seriously. We are a way’s off [from the next gubernatorial campaign],” said Daley to applause from a packed house at a City Club of Chicago luncheon. […]
What’s changed is that his brother, Richard M. Daley, is no longer mayor of Chicago — which some political observers viewed as a stumbling block to him winning the state’s highest office because too much power would be concentrated in the Daley family. “I couldn’t convince Rich then to get out,” Daley joked to reporters.
He called Quinn “a decent, honest, good person” and refused to be pinned down about a run against the Democratic incumbent.
* He believes he’s diagnosed the problem, leadership…
“I’ve had the privilege of working with great leaders,” Daley said. “I was in the situation room (when Obama made the call to kill Osama Bin Laden.”
Daley also focused on his father, Richard M. Daley’s, leadership, saying that the decision to raze Little Italy to make way for the University of Illinois Chicago campus took real guts. […]
Quinn, he suggested, does not possess those qualities — and failed to lead on pension reform.
“Gov Quinn’s proposals had promise but have been ignored. Divisiveness keeps winning out. …it’s not right to blame the workers. If Illinois is to solve the pension crisis political leaders need to put themselves at risk.”
But it’s not just pensions, Daley said. It’s education, energy and more.
“The list goes on and on of needs,” he said. “We’ve been forced to look inward at problems that should have been fixed long ago.It’s no wonder people of Illinois hunger for leadership.”
His work with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama would be positives in a Democratic primary.
But here’s my question: What Democratic primary voters does Bill Daley win over that Dan Hynes didn’t?
Discuss.
- OneMan - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:44 am:
I think there are fewer ‘benefit of the doubt’ voters for Quinn. Also I suspect he would do better in the city during a primary.
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:45 am:
The question is, has Quinn lost any Democratic primary voters since 2010?
A Daley primary campaign might — if done successfully — peel off organized labor voters. A campaign in which Daley ties himself to President Obama (as Emanuel’s mayoral campaign did), might peel off some lakeshore liberals and African Americans.
This all depends on Daley running, and running an effective campaign. Neither are sure things.
- Obamas Puppy - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:46 am:
The answer is none, and keep in mind public labor unions was a big reason why Hynes got close. Mr. Corporate Democrat union bashing Daley will not have that support.
- Sunshine - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:46 am:
He was actually in the situation room with the President when Osama was taken out…Wow, that is real leadership!
Perhaps he will win over those few voters that were asleep when Dan Hynes ran. I can’t possibly believe he brings much of anything to the table with a dumb statement like the above.
- horseracer - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:49 am:
Not downstate Democrats. Maybe Chicago machine troops.
- Irish - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:54 am:
I have to disagree. I think and would hope that all public employees get behind Mr. Daley. I would not understand any public union employee that would back Quinn.
Also, had we seen the last two years before the last primary I see Dan Hynes winning. Any one that shows they can focus and stay focused and be involved in the process of governing would have a chance of beating our present Governor.
- Been There - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:56 am:
How about the 19th ward? I know he won it but to get only 61% in the ward your father ran for years tells you something.
I think Daley would also do better in the black wards. Maybe not too much more, but the Clinton / Obama resume will help.
Mayor Daley also always polled pretty well in the suburbs. Don’t think Quinn is doing so well in those areas right now.
Another place Daley will do better is ANYWHERE he actually gets to speak to voters. Dan is nice guy but he was not dynamic at all and had a hard time connecting with people one on one.
- cassandra - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 9:59 am:
How seriously would Quinn consider a Daley candidacy to be, I wonder. Everything Quinn does over the next year should probably be viewed in light of an possible contested primary. More pension reform? Dial down pension reform? Tougher with unions…or not? End the temporary tax increase or not? Cost shift could alienate suburban and downstate voters–take that chance?
Ding middle class taxpayers? Which ones? Just the elderly ones, or all of them. Daley has the luxury of making general criticisms but Quinn can’t avoid all the tough decisions for two years. Or can he?
- Ahoy! - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:02 am:
Dan Hynes did not lose by much and I’m guessing there are a lot of Democratic votes that anybody could get after the past 2 years of Quinn’s mismanagement and goofiness. Who’s going to contribute to Quinn’s reelection campaign? I’m also not sure how the labor vote went, but I can’t see them turning out for Quinn. Either way, I think there are plenty of votes out there to get for a credible challenger. Dan Hynes would win a rematch with votes to spare.
- Fair Share - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:05 am:
It won’t be a (2) two horse race. In a three or four way, anything can happen. Even JJJ could win the primary, assuming he has not been convicted yet.
- Jorge - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:05 am:
Daley does have a familiar last name. For better or worse that does have an effect on the ballot box results.
- Stones - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:08 am:
Union government workers. No way they buy into Quinn again!
- nickypiii - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:10 am:
Danny Hynes would be overnor right now if the primary date hadn’t been pushed up from March. He closed fast, barely came up short and needed the extra time to pass up an incumbent De
- Langhorne - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:11 am:
None. Bill Daley is a resume candidate and probably a decent enough executive. I won’t believe he is serious or can contend until he spends a month or more getting to know and be known downstate. Republicans should cheer him if he wins a contested primary.
- just sayin' - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:12 am:
Oh for crying out loud why doesn’t Lisa Madigan just announce her run and save a lot of people a lot of time and money.
The gop candidates could give the money they would otherwise waste again to charity for example. If not a win/win, it would be progress by Illinois standards.
- Plutocrat03 - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:14 am:
Look like a Democratic Mitt Romney.
Good businessman, wealthy …….
- Quad Cities Democrat - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:15 am:
With economic development experience under President Bill Clinton, Bill Daley has the resume, narrative and experience to convey a message of real leadership.
- Skeeter - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:16 am:
Some of us are still trying to figure out how Quinn got any votes in that last race.
That being said, it is not as much Daley having more appeal than Quinn, but Quinn having even less appeal now.
One Man summed it up pretty well. Voters appeared willing to give Quinn the benefit of the doubt the last time. I’m not sure that it will happen this time.
Rather than Quinn/Hynes, a more important analogy might be Blago/Eisendrath. Blago was running again, pretty much everybody knew he was a bad guy, but he was an incumbent Dem. Eisendrath just never seemed to run a real campaign.
The question for 2014 is whether people feel they know and trust Bill Daley and whether he’s going to really go at it by raising a huge amount of money for both the primary and the general.
- Skeeter - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:19 am:
By the way, some of us still remember Bill Daley best from the Gore campaign. Unless he’s one on one against Quinn, he’s not going to get our votes.
- Dan Johnson - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:23 am:
“Leadership” is a pretty empty diagnosis.
- Jeeper - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:27 am:
I hope Daley runs. I am sure he would be the candidate of open, accountable, honest government, just like his dad.
- Knome Sane - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:30 am:
Haven’t we seen this movie before? Bill Daley flirts with gubernatorial/senatorial/mayoral run! Stop the presses! Then: pfffft. Nothing.
The Daley name is no longer sterling in Chicago. The Vanecko/Koschman case, the Mayor Daley legacy, etc leads to a heavy dose of “Daley fatigue” with which Bill Daley would have to contend. And at 66 years-old, does he really want to put himself through a brutal primary on the rubber chicken circuit through Vandalia and Mt. Vernon? I doubt he will run. Although I doubt Lisa Madigan will run either. Maybe his flirting is a way to keep Lisa Madigan on the sidelines? Who knows?
- siriusly - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:46 am:
Great question. It may be hard to say who will flip, but I think enough would.
I think that many many Dem primary voters essentially flipped a coin last time. Neither Hynes nor Quinn ran a great campaign, and in the end just enough decided to give Quinn a chance.
I think that facing a credible change candidate who can win in the fall, most Dem primary voters would be willing to make a change. Quinn’s upside is that he may be ideologically more in line with Dem primary voters, but his effectiveness is so minimal that it’s nearly useless to have him there.
- Ouch - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:47 am:
Yes, what Illinois needs now is that brilliant strong Wall Street leadership!
- Tom B. - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 10:53 am:
That’s easy. The North Shore gave Quinn a strong benefit of the doubt last time from having “known him,” all those years. That’s completely gone once Daley passes the Democratic smell test.
The governor’s got nothing downstate and the suburbs are hostile territory. He’d have to completely hold the City and folks around here know how to count.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:02 am:
–But it’s not just pensions, Daley said. It’s education, energy and more.–
Energy?
When he’s out of public service, I think he misses seeing his name in the paper. I’ll believe he is serious about running…… never.
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:11 am:
“I hope Daley runs. I am sure he would be the candidate of open, accountable, honest government, just like his dad.”
And his brother.
There’s an awful lot of bad feeling in Chicago against the Daleys based on the bad parking meter deal and the other scandals. His brother didn’t run for a reason.
Bill isn’t going to get the Lakefront Liberal vote. I don’t think he gets a heavy African-American vote. I don’t think he gets the downstate primary vote.
When Bill gets to the point of deciding, my bet is he’ll back off once again.
- Cheryl44 - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:13 am:
I’m a Chicagoan who will not be voting for Daley.
- The Captain - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:14 am:
The field of potential Dem Quinn challengers is frozen until it’s clear what Lisa Madigan is going to do. I actually believe Daley is serious but he’s not going to get out over his skis until he knows what the AG is going to do.
Also someone should try to get him to clarify what the White House thinks of all this, it would be nice to find out if some of the rumors are true.
- shore - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:16 am:
the Daley brand is not what it once was with suburban voters. It’s been horribly damaged and I think he will not have any kind of success. This is a family whose time has passed.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:32 am:
Skeeter @10:16 gets a thumbs-up by mentioning the long-forgotten Ed Eisendrath!
Downstate voters will be torn in a 2 way primary…many don’t like the Quinn actions on prison closings, general inertia on the “leadership” thing and other issues, but the animosity to anything Chicago (and anything Daley by extension) still smolders, however unwarranted. I think it’s still a toss-up, with Daley’s primary advantage the potential of change for change’s sake, and Quinn’s “at least we know what we have”.
- walkinfool - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:35 am:
In my mind it would be: Who would do better against Dillard or Rutherford, with the movable voters? Answer: Daley
For the primary: Quinn just has shown too many weaknesses, and won’t have labor support, while Daley sounds good and looks good on paper.
In reality, Daley’s no great shakes as a leader or public personality. He’s more of a quiet decision maker. That’s why he has wisely stayed away from campaigning.
JustSayin’ is right on. For Pete’s sake Lisa, take it now.
- D.P. Gumby - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:45 am:
If it’s Daley v. Quinn I’ll write in Simon
- Because I said so... - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 11:48 am:
It’s hard to take Billl Daley seriously after his past years of stated interest then nothing. It has been reported his wife doesn’t want him to run and why would he want to walk into this mess?
I didn’t think Lisa Madigan wanted the job but Rich’s comments at the City Club made her sound much more interested.
Someone needs to take on Quinn. His scare tactic style of governing is beyond tiresome. Time for Squeezy to wrap itself around PQ.
- IrishPirate - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 12:14 pm:
Can we change the constitution quickly and make the governorship an appointed position?
If so then Bill Daley is your man!
Since people are putting wild ass theories out there here’s my contribution.
Daley is a acting as a stalking horse for Rahmbo. Rahmbo runs and wins the primary. Daley gets appointed to the now vacant seat of an alderman to be chosen later. The City Council picks Daley as “da new MareDaley” and all is right with the world.
God Help the State of Illinois and da city of Chicago!
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 12:27 pm:
IP, that doesn’t sound all that wild to me, lol.
I continue to think, despite his near-Sherman-like protestations, that Emanuel’s ultimate goal is the White House, and that path leads through Springfield. No one’s ever gone from mayor to president.
If Emanuel sees a chance to take down Quinn in a primary, he’ll go for it.
- KurtInSpringfield - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 12:33 pm:
I don’t know the answer to the question. However, I wanted to pose a related question.
I am an independent voter and a state employee. I have not voted in a primary election for a very long time. However with that said, I will vote in the 2014 primary and pull a democratic ticket just to vote against Quinn. If Daley is the only other name on the ballot, I vote Daley. If there are more than two candidates, I’ll vote for the one I think is best.
Here’s why. I absolutely do not want Quinn as governor for a second term, but given the current IL demographics, I believe if Quinn is the nominee, he wins the general election. So, the only way to stop him is in the primary.
How many other people are out there that feel the way I do?
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 12:59 pm:
Maybe Bill could run as a Republican. He might have a better path to the statehouse. And he could bring back the Combine.
- Boone's is Back - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 1:11 pm:
I think Daley has a better shot with the union vote, as many have pointed out here, as well as the black vote. That was crucial for Quinn in the primary last time around, and the Daley name resonates there. Rich did a lot to build support in those communities, and I’m not sure what Quinn’s sticking points would be there.
As for the suburban women vote I think Daley has a good shot at picking up many of those votes too- depending on who else is in that primary. If suburban women are faced with Bill Daley v. Pat Quinn, I see the leadership issue winning the day for Daley. PQ’s numbers were the worst in those suburban pockets in that Preckwinkle poll- and even those that aren’t fond of the Daley name could pick Bill as the lesser of two evils who gets things done.
I don’t see where PQ gets the votes from.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 1:55 pm:
Hey, I don’t mean to be a pain, but I’m shutting down for the holidays today at 5 o’clock, so I really need you to finish your Golden Horseshoe nominations today.
Click here for The Wordslinger Golden Horseshoe Award for Best CapitolFax.com Commenter, and click here for the Best Statewide Officeholder and The Mike McClain Golden Horseshoe Award for Best Statehouse Insider.
Nominations typically come in throughout the evening on these things, but today’s nominations just can’t wait. So get to it, campers. I’ll be announcing the winners at 5 o’clock.
Thanks. Sorry to divert this thread. Please make your nominations and then continue your discussion.
- Cardinal fan - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 1:56 pm:
I know I am not answering the question by asking another question but I wonder how Speaker Madigan would be in a Quinn/Daley(assuming Lisa is not also running) primary. He stayed “neutral” in the Quinn/Hynes primary but word is he gave the green light late in the campaign for contributors to throw $$$ to Quinn. It would be interesting to see if he declared support for either Quinn or Daley.
- reformer - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 1:57 pm:
After the financial sinkhole Chicago is in thanks to his brother Rich, I’m not sure any Daley is what this state needs.
Would Bill admit not paying into pensions is a bad idea, even though Richie loved pension holidays? Would Bill admit it’s poor economics to sell government assets for a pittance that is then promptly spent?
- OneMan - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 2:09 pm:
I think he likes the attention, not sure he has the mindset to run himself.
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Dec 21, 12 @ 3:29 pm:
- and won’t have labor support -
I think a lot of folks are confusing AFSCME with labor in general.
AFSCME isn’t the largest union, nor are they the biggest source of Democratic support in Illinois.
If you take a look, AFSCME endorses plenty of Republicans.
There are lots of union members throughout the state very happy with the Governor’s capital initiatives creating jobs, as well as his efforts to keep Illinois’ credit rating from dropping below investment grade.
Lots of these workers have seen what it’s like to deal with truly unfair management, and they’re not buying all of the rhetoric from AFSCME.
As to Daley, I say bring it on.