Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » New poll
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
New poll

Wednesday, Feb 13, 2013

* As I told subscribers this morning, be careful when you read the media coverage of these poll results

The 2014 governor’s race in Illinois could be anybody’s game, according to the results of a new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU Carbondale.

A statewide survey of 600 registered voters from Jan. 27 to Feb. 8 shows Democrats leaning toward Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan in a hypothetical primary race with Gov. Pat Quinn and former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley. Republicans, meanwhile, are more undecided, with Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford taking a slight lead over other possible contenders, such as state Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, and U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, a Republican representing the state’s 18th congressional district.

Institute director David Yepsen said the poll, which has 4 percent margin of error, is a good snapshot of the potential races that will be heating up later this year.

The overall poll has a 4 percent margin of error. But the Democratic and Republican primary head-to-heads have much higher MoE’s. From the pollster

The Democratic subsample of 310 respondents has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points, and the Republican subsample of 186 respondents has a margin of error of 7.2 percentage points.

That GOP subsample is awfully darned tiny.

* Keeping that in mind, this is from NBC5

Of Republicans, 53.2 percent said they are undecided, 10.2 percent like State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, and 9.7 would vote for Senator Bill Brady. Congressman Aaron Schock won 9.1 percent while former Congressman Joe Walsh got 5.9 percent and state Senator Kirk Dillard 3.2 percent.

Among Democrats, 31.9 percent would vote for Madigan while 22.9 percent would vote again for Quinn and 11.9 would pick Daley. Even in this camp 28.4 percent was undecided.

Republican Bruce Rauner’s name was tested, but nobody picked him. That’ll change with $50 million, however.

* Sun-Times

Those polled gave Quinn poor remarks for the work he has done, with only 32.8 percent giving the governor positive job-performance ratings. The poll showed 51.3 percent disapproving of the governor’s job performance.

Those findings represent a sizable slide for Quinn since the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s polling unit last was in the field. Last summer, 42.2 percent of those surveyed carried a positive view of the governor’s job performance while 49 percent disapproved.

That question was asked of the entire universe, so it’s far more valid. But last year’s poll on Quinn’s job performance was somewhat of an outlier, since most other polls have shown far worse job performance numbers.

* Related…

* Rutherford points to office savings

* Union targets Quinn — again

* Schools facing another year of deep funding cuts

- Posted by Rich Miller        

15 Comments
  1. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:07 am:

    Quinn made fixing the pension problem “the reason he was put on Earth”, presumably as Governor.

    And he has sacrificed his support from Labor to get it.

    As long as there is no apparent solution, he has cooked his own goose. If there is something done on pensions quickly, his image might improve substantially.


  2. - shore - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:19 am:

    schock was on the railing getting a lot of facetime last night at state of the union while roskam made faces sitting next to paul ryan up in the gop nosebleed. I don’t think rauner’s $50 million will sell him, but I hope all of them run and there are 2,000 debates because the party really has no idea right now where its head is at.


  3. - Dazed & Confused - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 10:48 am:

    186 respondents wouldn’t suffice in a state rep race, let alone a statewide poll. Its somewhat embarrassing for the Paul Simon Institute to put out such small numbers for both sides after 10 days of polling.


  4. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 11:27 am:

    This confirms my very strong belief that there is no yearning for a Daley and if he runs, he will be quickly relegated to third place. I’d ignore the R results for the reasons Rich has already written about.

    Frankly it’s pretty ridiculous that they couldn’t oversample R’s to get a statistically relevant sample size. Do it right or don’t do it at all.


  5. - langhorne - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 11:32 am:

    any poll from now til quinn is defeated in the primary will have a heavy ABQ factor–anybody but quinn.

    so if the repub subsample was 186, rutherford and brady got about 18 mentions each, 17 for schock, 11 for walsh and 6 for dillard.


  6. - no more - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:27 pm:

    The SIU poll is a joke, a 186 respondants.The only real poll taken by reputable PPP had Dillard blowing away Quinn more than other GOPers and Dillard even beat Bill Daley. Schock trailed Quinn.Dillard would get 15-20% just because of DuPage County’s share of Republican Primary historical totals if he is not one if 5 people from his own county this time!


  7. - Charlie Leonard - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:39 pm:

    The Simon poll is a policy-related poll with an election question thrown in, just because we think it is interesting. It is not and does not purport to be an election question. Rich knows that, which is why he didn’t criticize the poll for it.

    We are always modest about our results and put our margins for error for the subsamples right up front.

    Data on the policy questions will be coming out in the next few days. Six hundred interviews is a perfectly respectable sample size.

    If people knew how expensive professional phone surveying was, they’d know why we didn’t oversample Republicans.


  8. - Charlie Leonard - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:45 pm:

    Sorry. “…does not purport to be an election POLL.”


  9. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 12:59 pm:

    Thanks for the poll and for checking in, Charlie.

    ==”If people knew how expensive professional phone surveying was, they’d know why we didn’t oversample Republicans.”==
    Heh. This would be much more effective evidence for ousting Pat Brady than what Oberweis is trying…


  10. - Votecounter - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    Then why do it? For the headlines? This just makes it so people who understand polling won’t give the next one a second look.


  11. - Dazed & Confused - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 2:23 pm:

    Charlie - as someone with some polling experience, 600 respondents would be an average sample for a general election question. When you break it down and only get 186 for a statewide GOP primary, it is abysmal (Rich said awfully darned tiny). Perhaps you shouldn’t include the election question for interest because its somewhat tainted. Or use an implicit warning to the press that this is not an election question.

    If you break down the GOP vote into very broad regions, its essentially 20 percent Cook, 35 percent collars and 45 percent downstate. So I assume this poll had roughly 40 respondents in Cook, 70 in the collars and 90 downstate.


  12. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 3:44 pm:

    These Subsamples are small and both D an R results have an awfully big MoE–yet, if anything, from PQ’s perspective, it could perhaps be seen as mildly hopeful, if it’s ACtually more like 29-26, though he’s clearly behind. On the GOP side, whoa, there’s a LONG way to go b4 THAT guy is picked–might even be a Cliffhanger, like last time, ‘cuz, again, if anything, there’s clearly no “Front” runner…


  13. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Feb 13, 13 @ 7:03 pm:

    Some folks are so addicted to political nonsense they have completely forgotten what the last gubernaorial polls in 2010 predicted.

    Really folks? You gonna believe polls after the last election?


  14. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Feb 14, 13 @ 12:39 am:

    16 respondents separate high and low Republican candidate. About 90 respondents choose a candidate. 102 Illinois Counties.

    Utter nonsense.


  15. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Feb 14, 13 @ 9:13 am:

    Charlie -

    I’m not going to besmirch your poll. I find it useful.

    That said, when it comes to public policy, I find NIU’s annual public policy poll more helpful.

    For one thing, they’ve been asking a pretty consistent set of core questions the same way since 1984, with some slight expansions as the public policy debate expands. That gives us really good information about changes in public attitudes.

    Secondly, their sample size is over 1,100, which adds some reliability.

    Finally, they publish a voluminous amount of crosstab data, much more so than the Simon Institute.

    I rely on both polls, but lean more heavily on NIU for these reasons. Folks can find it here.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* The updated legislative retirement list
* Question of the day
* Today's quotable
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Campaign news; Supplement to today's edition; More candidate announcements
* Poll: 66 percent of Chicagoans think the city is on the wrong track
* Our new and unbalanced budget
* Proft calls HB40 "integrity test" for Rauner
* There will be no kid glove treatment for Drury now
* Madigan denies "reports" that Rauner has asked him for budget meetings
* Catholic group warns Rauner against signing "electoral suicide note"
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Nekritz out, Raoul backed by Cullerton as unknowns ask "Why not me?"
* We need a capital bill, but don't hold your breath
* Biss starting to get questions about his voting history
* SEIU derides "3 strikes" rule, Rauner admin defends
* Preckwinkle tries again to defend pop tax
* *** UPDATED x4 - DGA, Pritzker, Pawar, Biss respond *** Rauner speaks out on NFL protests
* *** UPDATED x6 *** Harmon will lift the hold on HB40
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax
* Personal PAC planning newspaper ad claiming Gov. Rauner and First Lady "lied"
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Gov. Rauner Says Anthem Protests Are Insulting .....
* State Democrats, frustrated with Rauner's indec.....
* Democrats Send Rauner Abortion Bill Amid Uncert.....
* Illinois automatic voter registration bill sign.....
* Clock Ticking on Abortion Bill - Alton Daily News..


* Full federal court to hear 'Making a Murderer' appeal
* Chicago archdiocese to focus on domestic violence in Mass
* Morris VFW finally awards jackpot after raffle was delayed
* Indiana governor seeks federal funding for railroad project
* Illinois governor 'strongly disagrees' with anthem protests
* 5 ex-managers of Bloomington arena indicted on 111 counts
* Violence in US rises for second straight year
* Patients in Illinois get legal help for non-medical issues
* FBI reveals sketch of person of interest in post office bomb
* Suburban Chicago man charged with killing ex-girlfriend, son

* Rauner says anthem protests disrespectful
* Abortion rights bill sent to Rauner
* Abortion rights bill on way to Rauner
* Ex-congressman Mel Reynolds' tax trial to start Monday
* Public invited to vote on Main Street preservation projects
* Scramble begins in Illinois attorney general race
* Abortion bill is hot potato for Gov. Rauner
* New Illinois law will let adults earn high school diplomas
* Raoul enters AG race, apologizes for 'Miss America' comment
* AG candidate Raoul apologizes for 'bad characterization' of opponent

* Trust in health insurers sinks to an all-time low
* O'Hare is the nation's best for connections
* Target is smart to raise its minimum wage
* Steeler who stood for anthem now has best-selling NFL jersey
* WTTW/WFMT announce $65 million fundraising campaign


* Woman shot, critically wounded in Back of the Yards
* 9 shot, 2 fatally, in Monday gun violence in Chicago
* Man found shot in East Garfield Park
* Full federal court to hear ‘Making a Murderer’ appeal
* Man hurt in Lawndale shooting
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Sept. 26, 2017
* Dear Abby: Now sober, he longs for wife’s return
* 3 robberies reported last week on South, Southwest sides
* ‘Pretty Woman’ the musical, headed for Chicago debut before Broadway
* Man, 30, shot in West Pullman


* In the first 'Opposition' episode, Jordan Klepper feels shadow of 'Colbert'
* As Ivanka Trump's political influence grows, so does secrecy surrounding her fashion brand's business ties in China
* Javier Baez escapes with bruise after fouling ball off leg
* Cubs fun includes eliminating Cardinals, winning over Nacho Man
* Cubs one step from NL Central title, eliminate Cardinals from division race
* White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia on breakout year: 'I proved it to myself'
* Chicago gets pre-Broadway tryout for ‘Pretty Woman’ musical
* Tennessee church shooting suspect had previous run-ins with police
* Cubs 10, Cardinals 2
* 1 dead, 3 wounded in West Side shootings


» College Diploma Out-Of-Reach For Growing Number Of Low-Income Illinois Students
» Violence In US Rises For Second Straight Year
» In Major Reversal, Cook County Prosecutors Agree To Reduce Sentence Of Addolfo Davis
» Abortion Legislation Puts Gov. Rauner On Election Bind
» Abortion Legislation Puts Gov. Rauner In Political Bind
» State Week: IL Attorney General Candidates, The Soda Tax, and Courting Amazon
» State Week: IL Attorney General Candidates, The Soda Tax and Courting Amazon
» Governor Running Out Of Time On Location Tracking Regulation
» In Cook County, 3 Prosecutors Are Handling Hundreds Of Wrongful Conviction Claims
» An Accounting For Meteorological Violence Among Insurers


* Marc Thiessen: Trump's UN speech promoted classic conservative ideas
* Rauner says anthem protests disrespectful
* Abortion rights bill sent to Rauner
* Abortion rights bill on way to Rauner
* Ex-congressman Mel Reynolds' tax trial to start Monday
* Public invited to vote on Main Street preservation projects
* George Will: America's engine is being slowed by complacency
* Scramble begins in Illinois attorney general race
* Statehouse Insider: Illinois finances not the worst? Believe it or not.
* Angie Muhs: New content coming to Sunday SJ-R


* Rivermont adds Rowing Academy
* Henry Mitchell
* Sandra Ross
* Loudene Hart
* Patrick Lucier
* Earl Frischkorn
* Scott D. Winn
* Joyce Duncan
* Gene Stettler
* Donald Poole


* As senators defect, GOP concedes health bill's fate bleak
* As health bill teeters, Medicaid recipients watch nervously
* Overreaction: NFL players and owners are finally unified
* China postpones food import controls after global outcry
* Tillman's widow: Don't politicize Pat in effort to divide

* Montgomery mayor hosts health care forum a...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* What suburban members of Congress say abou...
* Hultgren pleads for continued funding of f...
* Rep. Randy Hultgren announces 2017 Congres...
* Congressman Randy Hultgren Visits Raue Cen...
* Hultgren pushes for CHIP funding ahead of ...
* Indivisible billboard targets Hultgren, Ro...
* Nick in the AM: Bartonville native plans t...
* Hultgren Comments on CAT Closure, Hurrican...

* GUEST COLUMN: 'Fess up, Dick and Dianne; t......
* Dems' religious concerns hypocritical, but......

* Senator Duckworth Statement in Opposition ......

* Marking the purchase of a new iPhone
* EXTRA: Whole world was watching
* 9th ward meeting with Ald. Beale on Tuesday
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Concerned Bloomington citizen files FOIAs on city-owned stadium, results led to 111 indictments
* The [Thursday] Papers
* How flood insurance works, and how it ought to work
* Appeals court requires Texas cities co-op with immigration officials; Illinois bans same
* The premiere of The Opposition With Jordan Klepper, and more of the best things to do in Chicago this week
* August brings higher Illinois home prices, lower sales amid tight inventory


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Apple reportedly spends more on iPhone 8 Plus manufacturing than 7 Plus, profit margins still hefty
* iOS and macOS Spotlight web search preferences move from Bing to Google
* HP Elite x3 to remain on sale “through 2019”
* Sprint hires lobbying firm with strong support for Trump as T-Mobile deal nears
* iPhone 8 Supports Enhanced Voice Services Codec for Better Quality Audio on Some Carriers
* Snapchat Gains Augmented Reality 'Sky Filters' for Adding Virtual Weather Effects to Photos
* How to Use New Pinning and Tables Features in Notes in iOS 11 and macOS High Sierra

* Sox Century: Sept. 25, 1917
* Shields fires gem as White Sox play spoiler role
* Veteran Volstad gets spot start vs. Angels
* Brantly family shares special moment with Sox
* White Sox 4, Angels 2: Shields stellar seven innings holds off LA
* White Sox 4, Angels 2: Shields’ stellar seven innings holds off LA
* Shields K's 8 as White Sox play spoiler role


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller