Question of the day
Friday, Jun 7, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Former White House Chief-of-Staff Bill Daley has a history of flirting with running for governor and U.S. senator only to back off in the end, but he said Thursday he’s “not teasing this time.”
hey
Daley said he’s seriously considering the race–and promising a final decision within a week–because of the Il. General Assembly’s stunning failure to address the state’s $100 billlion pension crisis.
“I’m not teasing this time…I’ve looked at this in a serious way over the last number of months. But, after the debacle Friday, as a Democrat, I look at this and say, `What is going on here?’…This is beyond the pale,” Daley said Thursday.
“The governor is a good, decent honest man. After the Blagojevich fiasco, his honesty is what was needed, obviously. But, we also need to get things done. And that’s what’s been lacking.”
Regardless of what he does, far too many people believe that Daley somehow has an inside track into what Attorney General Lisa Madigan is planning to do, or not do. That’s almost undoubtedly not true. The South Side Irish are allies, but they never over share. We’ll know more from AG Madigan sometime after July 4th, I’m told. And as of today I’m still standing by my original estimate of the chances of her running.
Anyway…
* The Question: Do you think Bill Daley will announce for governor next week? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey service
- AFSCME Steward - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:15 am:
Bill in, Lisa out
- Raising Kane - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:16 am:
I voted no….I am betting he announces some kind of “listening tour” or exploratory to buy time.
- soccermom - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:20 am:
If Daley runs, Quinn wins.
- Stones - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:23 am:
Bill Daley has backed off too often and I think he will again. A 3 way primary would only benefit PQ.
- Chi - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:23 am:
I voted no, he’s the candidate that cried wolf.
- Truth teller - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:24 am:
No, the Daley name is not what it used to be in the City of Chicago, and downstate it’s poison.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:25 am:
I voted yes based on some recent developments and observations. Two weeks ago I would have said no, but now I think it’s 3-1 in favor of Daley running. Not sure he gets votes where Hynes didn’t, and he’s probably the candidate Quinn most wants to run against, but I think he’ll emerge as the only serious Dem challenger.
Rich, remind me, what was your original estimate of Lisa Madigan running?
- Nosmo King - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:25 am:
As I mentioned in a previous post today:
My prediction (and you heard it here first, folks): Bill Daley will announce his bid for governor next week. The day before he makes that announcement, Lisa Madigan announces that she is not running. And here is the shocker…she’ll announce she is not running for re-election, either.
At least, that’s how I read the crystal ball.
- Knome Sane - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:27 am:
I voted yes. Reason: yesterday Daley said “I am not teasing this time”. Because, in the past, he was teasing. But not now. Nope, no teasing.
- Anon - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:27 am:
Is anyone really pining for the return of a Daley? I’m not sure there is any magic left in that name.
- Darienite - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:29 am:
Can you believe voters outside Chicago would vote for a Daley? Agree with Raising Kane; at best an exploratory committee to wait to see if LM runs.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:30 am:
===If Daley runs, Quinn wins.===
Yep.
Voted “No” to next week, but Bill Daley is running.
It’s like my knee and the rain. Rain is “coming”, knee gets achy;
When things get too silent, “somehting” is coming. The “No’s” for Bill Daley in the Outside World, are just too silent … today.
- Robert the Bruce - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:34 am:
I voted yes.
Good crystal ball / wild guess thread for a Friday.
Daley announces in hopes that Lisa Madigan stays out, and raises some funds. He’ll point out Quinn’s deficiencies loudly. Lisa will enter during July, and all the money goes her way. Daley will bow out a couple months later. Quinn will waste his time and energy making the case that having two Madigans in power is a bad idea. Mike Madigan will announce his retirement 4-6 weeks before the primary, taking away Quinn’s main line of attack. Lisa sails to victory.
- Not in the Know - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:34 am:
No…as someone has already mentioned his name doesn’t have the same pull it use to have. Also, did he get permission from Madigan to run? My 2014 Democratic dark horse candidate - Chris Kennedy.
- The ol' one two - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:35 am:
Bill for the next 4 to push through Rahm’s stuff. Steps down, then Lisa.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:36 am:
===Mike Madigan will announce his retirement 4-6 weeks before the primary===
LOL
- Formerly Known As... - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:36 am:
Yes.
Daley runs and at the very least splits the white male vote in the primary.
Either he or Lisa wins the primary.
And if either of them wins, Daley wins by becoming the nominee or by helping Madigan.
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:36 am:
Bill is really a North Sider on most scorecards
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:38 am:
To be clear …
LM, Daley, Quinn …
Quinn has to be looked at as the possible winner.
Why?
Daley, Byrne, Washington.
Two “regular Organizational Dems” lose to the outside Dem. Seen this movie before.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:39 am:
===LM, Daley, Quinn … Quinn has to be looked at as the possible winner.===
That’s not what the polling has shown.
- OneMan - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:45 am:
He isn’t going to run, to be blunt, don’t think he has the stones for it.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:45 am:
True, Rich …the polling doesn’t have it that way.
Just, have a weird Karma thing this far out, and Quinn is goofy enough to blow it this time and with all the baggage…
Still, its a Karma thing … weird feeling about THAT dynamic. I am sure once things roll out and if it is those 3, I may feel different, then, but … trying to shake it, but Karma needs something to shake it.
You are right, Rich. I am going against the Polling right now, 9 months out … on a hunch/Karma thing.
- Charlatan Heston - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 11:57 am:
I voted no-he seems to struggle with the distinct possibility that he will fade into obscurity so he remains relevant with these flirtations. I am not a Quinn fan, but I don’t think Daley’s the guy for the job.
- Steve - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:00 pm:
No, why should he run? By looking like he’s running gives him more power as a lobbyist. Bill, is the Daley family’s wealthiest rent seeker. Why go on the public payroll and take a pay cut when you have a lot of money with no real accountability? Who wants to tell government workers that taxpayers can’t afford their pensions when those pensions where promised and guaranteed in the Illinois state constitution??? Who wants to try and compete with right to work states that don’t have state incomes taxes?? I think Bill Daley knows everything I’ve said here.
- Belle - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:01 pm:
No—for all the reasons already stated. Plus, the murder trial coming up soon.
- Downstate weed chewing hick - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:03 pm:
You get one shot per cycle to float your trial balloon and if the money and enthusiasm don’t come, re-announcing a decision to decide at a later date isn’t going to make it happen.
- Wensicia - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:20 pm:
Hypothetically, I’ll say he announces, then waits for Lisa to enter the race. He agrees to drop out if she picks him for Lt. Gov.
I know it’s far fetched, but a Madigan/Daley ticket would be interesting.
- 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:21 pm:
I think he will if it looks like Rutherford has a good chance because this way the Democrats will keep control. He probably is waiting for results to come back Quinn vs Rutherford, Daley vs Rutherford.
- soccermom - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:29 pm:
No way Bill Daley takes LTG
- Nieva - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:30 pm:
He can’t beat Lisa and she is going to run. I say no to a Daley run.
- soccermom - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:32 pm:
To be clear, I don’t think Daley will run if the Attorney General runs.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:32 pm:
===No way Bill Daley takes LTG ==
No way he’s offered the job.
- Been There - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:35 pm:
I voted no but I think he will run if Lisa does not. But he needs to keep ratcheting it up while the waiting games go on. For one thing it seems just having Daley float his name out there keeps some of the B players on the bench who might have otherwise thought about going for it if Lisa did not.
- Been There - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:36 pm:
===No, the Daley name is not what it used to be in the City of Chicago, and downstate it’s poison.===
But I believe the Daley name polls pretty well in the suburbs.
- ZC - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:45 pm:
No he ultimately does not run. No inside intel or new observations, just playing the percentages whenever the likelihood of Bill Daley running for Gov comes up.
- Darienite - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:48 pm:
==”But I believe the Daley name polls pretty well in the suburbs.”==
Maybe Oak Park, but in DuPage, Kane and NW Cook, I would beg to differ.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 12:48 pm:
As I said previously I think he’s a stalking horse for Madigan. A big name to criticize Quinn repeatedly while Lisa makes up her mind.
Even if Lisa doesn’t run I still say Daley stays out.
I think Daley running is so unlikely that him leading a Democrats for Rauner group is more likely than him running. After all, as Rich said, rich guys tend to stick with other rich guys and there is a history there with Daleys SBC selling security link to Rauners company through Rahm Emanuel.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:02 pm:
@OW -
The problem with your Daley/Byrne/Washington comparison to Daley/Lisa/Quinn is you are lumping Lisa and Byrne together as the same. Byrne is the ineffectual incumbent with too many Dem enemies so that’s Quinn. And Lisa is like Washington in that her election would be history-making so have added excitement because of that.
- dupage dan - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:11 pm:
I think he announces he will run. I think he backs off if LM enters the race and polls/fundraises well. He will look at the numbers and then come out and say the usual, “we did our best, thank you all for your hard work and contributions to the valiant effort but I need to leave the race and focus on my family”.
- Northsider - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:17 pm:
Mike Madigan’s reactions this week have been a little bit off. Something’s up. I can’t imagine him making a deal with Daley, other than Lisa deciding she’d rather run for a local office. In that case, Madigan would need to do a deal with Daley if he wants Lisa to have a chance against Rahm.
- anon - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:24 pm:
Goodbye to Daley, goodbye to L Madigan. John Cullerton for Governor. He’s the real Leader.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:26 pm:
- hisgirlfriday -,
Appreciate your thoughts. I am coming from the place of 2 “Machine” Dems, (not a ‘red flag’ ‘Machine’ thing, meaning part of the Regular Dems) versus an “Outsider” of the Regular Dems. Nothing more. Not saying one equals one, or one IS one …that is why it spooks me with the Karma thing. I do not have a leg to stand on, the polling is not in my favor, but today, 9 months out, the dynamic has my Karma Meter going off, for no factual reason.
Fair?
- Formerly Known As... - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 1:28 pm:
@Oswego Willy
It’s an interesting theory.
It would, perhaps, allow Quinn to reprise his old role of the “outsider” fighting for “the little guy” against the Madigans and Daleys.
And, as Rich has noted, Quinn is a strong closer.
You may be on to something.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:02 pm:
It’s a tough call, but I still say no.
What’s his base? I’m sure he could raise money, but Emanuel’s rolodex seems to be going to Rauner.
If he doesn’t pull the trigger this time, please, no more.
- IrishPirate - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:13 pm:
On numerous occasions I’ve predicted that the Bubbly Creek Hamlet will NOT run for governor.
Given that and my track record for predictions it is now virtually assured that Daley WILL run for governor. Something just smells different this time. This is his last realistic chance to play Hamlet, he’s about 65 years old, and it’s now time to enter the arena or walk off into his sunset years with tens of millions of dollars and condos in various warm locations.
PS Lisa Madigan is not some unbeatable foe. Her best day polling will be the day she announces. Then it’s all downhill from there. She could still win, but I wouldn’t bet much on it. I wouldn’t bet much against it for that matter. Too difficult to call.
Now if you really want to see an interesting race get one of the young black state legislators to run. One with some cross racial appeal. Imagine that four way race.
- Louis Howe - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 2:22 pm:
Illinois Democrats really don’t have much of a choice. One, stay with a proven incompetent Governor. Two, dominate a former Wall Street banker and serial rent seeker. Or three, urge Lisa to run and hope for the best.
- Anon - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:01 pm:
The Daleys are viewed as able to get things done. I think he has a chance.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:25 pm:
@Anon - The Daleys WERE viewed as able to get things done. Before the public realized what an awful deal we got on the parking meters. Before our Olympic bid went nowhere. Before the huge city deficit got attention. And before Bill completely flopped as WH COS and had to be replaced. All that’s left is the parks. And while I would love it if our next governor made restoring our state parks to former glory a priority, I don’t think that’s quite a winning platform.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:29 pm:
@OW - Far be it for me to question your karma meter.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 3:40 pm:
- hisgirlfriday -,
Question away! Heck, I question Karma Meter! what is great about this place is that we call each other out. Rich called me out, and rightly so, the polls are not with me. Something just doesn’t sit “right”, with that race with those 3 and I can’t put a finger on it, and that doesn’t mean I think Quinn will 100% win, I just like Quinn’s chances considerably better with Daley and LM in there, and everything, today, says I am a Loon.
Maybe its because its Friday, the leftover Pizza I ate, I don’t know. This Karma thing started with the Daley quote about the race a week or so ago… oh well.
- Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:03 pm:
That was meant to read “…his InFlated, Messianic Ego…”
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:03 pm:
- Formerly Known As… -
I appreciate your feedback.
There is room out on “my limb” if you want to come out here…but I wouldn’t want you to be stuck out there on that with ME…I wouldn’t wish that on ANYONE!
Daley’s quote about a week about about the Race, and the 3 candidates, 2 regualr Dems, one outside, positives and negatives … Karma Meter has me in a fog on it.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jun 7, 13 @ 4:10 pm:
Federales want four years for Trips. That’s two an elk head.