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Poe vs. Durkin
Thursday, Aug 22, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller * The battle to replace House Republican Leader Tom Cross is so far between Downstater Rep. Raymond Poe (R-Springfield) and suburbanite Rep. Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs). The two men just couldn’t be more different…
* Keep in mind that a majority of House Republicans voted against the Madigan pension reform plan and were really upset with Cross over his pandering to Ty Fahner et al. The majority of the caucus represents Downstate districts, and there are very real tensions between the two regions. But neither man has yet sewn up enough votes to win, partially because of this guy…
Kay has the support of at least two other ultra-conservative House Republicans (reportedly Jeanne Ives of Wheaton and Tom Morrison of Palatine). * Durkin is right that raising money is a key issue. And the real money is most definitely in the Chicago area, where he lives. Former Senate GOP Leader Frank Watson managed to do it from his Metro East district, but it wasn’t easy at all. It would, however, be fascinating to see a Poe leadership win. I imagine that the Chicago Tribune editorial board’s collective head would explode if Poe took over the helm. And just imagine the position it would put Bruce Rauner in. He’d be bashing his party’s own House leader for kowtowing to the unions. Priceless. * If neither man is able to put together a winning margin, you can probably expect others to eventually jump in. Cross won a bitter race against former Rep. Art Tenhouse back in the day, but the suburbs had a lot more power and influence in those times and Cross had crossover appeal that Durkin has so far lacked. I also don’t expect Kay to drop out any time soon. He is what he is.
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- MM - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:18 am:
What are their positions on other issues, like same-sex marriage etc… ?
- walkinfool - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:23 am:
The majority of the downstate GOPers voted against the Madigan plan, but did not commit for voting for the “union supported” version. They have only committed to vote no, so far.
Poe pledged support for Cullerton’s plan, because of his district, as an outlier in his caucus.
To think that the downstate GOP is all of a sudden favoring government unions in this battle, is plain wrong.
Illinois politics can put many things on their heads, but the Dems as anti-union, and the GOP as pro-union is real acrobatics.
Two things the Leader needs to do well: get and impact legislation for the caucus, and win seats.
Durkin is likely better at both than Poe. Durkin has a strong personality, and can lack patience, but those aren’t all bad.
- Former State Employee - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:31 am:
I’d love to see Raymond Poe at the helm.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:32 am:
- MM -,
Don’t forget the Blood Oath when you give your Litmus Test.
My “Test”?
Who can raise the most money, who can set up a Senior Staff to beat MJM’s, who can get the HGOP to 60 seats!
What. Are. Their. Stances???
Are you serious? How about winning as a stance!
Dope!!!
- foster brooks - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:36 am:
Vote poe
- Andrew Szakmary - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:36 am:
I am pleasantly surprised that there are still some Republicans left who believe in the rule of law (i.e. contracts should be honored) as opposed to the golden rule (as in he who has the gold, makes the rules). I hope Poe wins but I am not holding my breath.
- too obvious - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:39 am:
I would say both would be equally good at continuing Cross’ strategy of leading House GOP into deeper irrelevance.
- Loop Lady - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 10:40 am:
Poe? Really? Why him over Durkin? I see Durkin and Dorgan as the GOP dream team…
- Bemused - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:01 am:
Back in the day I walked precincts for one or two of Poe’s challengers. After watching him for all these years I would say he is an okay guy but I am not seeing top leadership material here. He has stayed in office in a very GOP area for a long time. Maybe there is more to the guy than I am seeing.
- walkinfool - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:04 am:
O’Willy: You know I luvya man, but go easy on the “dope”s.
Save them for special occasions of high dudgeon.
(Or maybe I’ll mind my own business.)
- Norseman - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:08 am:
Unfortunately, it’s all about the money. Money pays for quality staff, media buys and other needs to support candidates. Certainly money can’t guarantee victory, but the lack of it leads to defeat unless you have a superior candidate - not usually found in today’s GOP.
So Durkin’s claim to fame is the money. Poe has the positions more in line to the political needs of the downstate members with higher numbers of public workers in their districts.
One wonders whether Durkin will be able to drum up large sums of money from the one percenters to support a caucus that will not support draconian pension reduction.
This will be a huge conundrum for the House GOP.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:08 am:
- walkinfool -,
No worries, but understand;
We get rid of “Two-Putt” and the first question posed about a possible replacement is about … stances?
Yikes!
I am pretty sure that specific “Dope”, given where we are, is probably warranted .
Nah, it IS warranted.
With respect, - walkinfool -…
- Norseman - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:11 am:
=== Durkin and Dorgan as the GOP dream team ===
With this dream team, I know the GOP is in trouble.
- Frank - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:14 am:
Given that this is being framed as a downstate v. suburbs battle, it’s interesting that Dwight Kay’s two known supporters are suburbanite pension reform backers — which means Kay could be taking votes from Durkin instead of his fellow downstater Poe.
I’m guessing there’s going to be a lot of carnage and none of the three declared candidates will survive.
- Marty Funkhouser - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:17 am:
“Poe pledged support for Cullerton’s plan, because of his district, as an outlier in his caucus.”
I’m not sure it’s such an outlier downstate, given all the Republicans that represent universities, prisons, etc.
That being said, Poe as leader is simply laughable. He’s only around still because the Sangamon Co. GOP wouldn’t throw its weight behind his son, Lance, taking over his seat when he was under the delusion that he’d be a good lieutenant governor candidate (remember that the next time you hear a downstater crow about “Chicago politics” and nepotism)
The only significant piece of legislation he’s ever passed is the Rule of 85. And can you imagine the rich Republicans in Chicago opening their checkbooks for him? He’s never been a part of the solution on pensions. He didn’t jump behind Cullerton’s proposal until the unions told him he could.
The folks who have power up north will never allow Poe to be leader and if he somehow wins, the House GOP will starve to death from the lack of campaign cash.
- walkinfool - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:28 am:
Oswego Willy Dudgeon Master.
You’re right.
with respect
- A guy... - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:48 am:
The seats the GOP needs to win or “win back” are in the suburban Chicago area. If we want to see if it can get worse than it already has, Poe’s your guy. It is about raising money to compete in very expensive areas to compete. Even Cross wasn’t cosmo enough (too rural in many minds) to be as effective in the collar areas. You’ve got to operate from an area of strength and resources. Many downstate districts have a conservative orthodoxy, but not the resources to battle in the suburbs. Durkin offers the best chance. With Poe, we’ll have a majority or effective minority nevermore.
- My Thoughts For Whatever - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 11:50 am:
Pitty the poor guy that might actually acknowledge and support the constitution when it comes to negotiated contracts!
- Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:00 pm:
Ditto to Marty.
The only thing Poe seems to do is drum up ideas for specialty license plates and desicrate the State Designations Act by codifying THE State Tartan. At least Durkin is a strong, respected voice on the floor.
- Whatever - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:07 pm:
I’m not sure where Durkin’s reputation as a great fundraiser comes from. Where’s the evidence to support that? He certainly didn’t raise much money for his blockbuster US race, but he did blame the GOP for not doing it for him.
- Soccermom - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:07 pm:
State tartan? How on earth did I miss this?
- votecounter - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:13 pm:
Cross was there because Speaker Hastert gave him a couple hundred grand to spread out for campaigns. That is the only reason he beat Tenhouse and was the beginning of the end. It caused a huge split in the party.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:20 pm:
If Dwight Kay has the support of Confederate Uniform wearing Ives, and “If I offended” Tom Morrison, that is all you need to know about how… credible(?)… of a run Dwight Kay can put up.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:23 pm:
lol Ives never wore a Confederate Uniform, I am mocking her “Saluting” of those “wearing the uniform” and never actually did walk back what she meant, or even clarified it.
- A guy... - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 12:24 pm:
O Willie, tis a small force indeed!
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 1:22 pm:
My take…
I want the New Minority Leader to be committed to THREE principles;
1) Commit to a Professional Campaign Senior Staff. Get the best possible talent, work as Leader even harder than Staff, and understand how Senior Staff must be committed to the Day to Day staff on-site at the Targeted races, and Senior Staff that understands what it means to Target races, and what needs to be done to WIN Targeted races.
2) Commit to being a prolific fundraiser. Show donors the New HGOP Campaign Staff and campaign commitment to winning, and lay out that the monies committed are towards winning seats, not paying rents, salaries, bar tabs, with zero return in “Seats Gained”. When this new Leader is not strategizing, this new Leader better be dialing for Dollars.
Finally…
3) Using the Reagan Rule of 80%, and STUDYING the 1996 Democratic Wins that got Speaker Madigan the gavel back, this new Leader need to understand how the recruitment, polling, diversity, ground game, GOTV and Election Day execution made the difference in getting the gavel BACK in MJM’s hand, and why… it hasn’t left that hand since. The new Leader and this new Senior Staff must… must understand how to win, when the “Jerry Clarke Map” is against them. The 1996 Democrat game plan of those targeted seats, polling, recruitment of candidates, field organization, GOTV and Election Day execution is the “Road Map to ‘Beat the Map’ 2014″. Understand how they won, understand TO win.
Whichever HGOP member that can COMMIT to those three, will be successful.
I won’t saddle any possible Leaders with my Dopey Blessing, bug the Three Principles above… is how I am going to measure your success.
Count on it.
With respect and wishing the HGOP luck, honestly,
Oswego Willy
- ANON618 - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 1:31 pm:
Don’t forget that one of the jobs of the party leader is to be the public spokesman for the party. Have you heard Poe talk? He can barely put a grammatical thought together.
- Downstate GOP Faithless - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 1:40 pm:
What I don’t think Poe is taking in to account is the difference between being leader and being in the house. Statehouse & Chicago media will eat him up as leader and that is not good for the membership. Beyond that it truly is a money game. Its easier to gain commitments from members when you can give them checks. Personally I am still disappointed Tim Schmitz isn’t involved…he would be ideal.
- HoneyBooBah... - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 2:05 pm:
Downstate GOP Faithless: I agree with you. If Schmitz were to get in the race, the GOP might actually stand a chance. Poe and Durkin can’t even earn the respect of their own caucus. And they would think they could go out on a broader platform and represent the GOP?? These two represent what is WRONG about the GOP in Illinois
- Ready To Get Out - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 2:52 pm:
How about someone that can read, understand and adhere to the State Constitution?
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:04 pm:
Doesn’t make much difference. The newly drawn districts mean a sizable Democratic majority for the next 10 years. Maybe, just maybe, a few seats could be picked off to get the Dems below the supermajority level. Other than that, get a hang on for the next 8 years, let the democrats make a bigger mess of the state and elect a Republican Governor in 2018 to make the redistricting more equitable.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:11 pm:
- Downstater -,
That is the attitude I hope the next Leader does NOT have!
What a defeatist attitude to have a new beginning for the HGOP.
If what you “suggest” is what the new Leader should honestly believe, then why even have a Caucus, a Leader of that Caucus, or even Elections?
Bad form.
Who knows, 1996 in reverse, as embraced by the Reagan Rule of 80% might make all the difference, given the new Leader tries… and ignores your defeatist ideal…
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:31 pm:
=Who knows, 1996 in reverse, as embraced by the Reagan Rule of 80% might make all the difference, given the new Leader tries… and ignores your defeatist ideal… =
You say defeatist. I say pragmatic realist.
Show me the 12 seats Republicans can actually win and I will sign on. Heck, show me 4 seats they can actually win in this cycle and I will jump on your bandwagon.
Offering advice on 3 principals will get you lots of atta boys on this blog, but zero dollars in campaign contributions.
- 4 percent - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:38 pm:
Marty is absolutely correct. Raymond Poe is an absolute joke who’s been trying to slot his son into his seat for years. He doesn’t have the power to do that but he did get him state contracts at the fair.
Raymond has been trying to shake down GOP gubernatorial candidates for years. Trying to exchange his support in exchange for the Director of Ag job, state jobs for friends, and campaign contributions.
Thank goodness he can be the Fried Chicken Dinner Leader because he won’t have enough GOP members left to fit into a phone booth.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:39 pm:
Um…. - Downstater -,
That is why #1… &… #2… are so important, so #3, can be executed.
Since I am not on Mr. Durkin, or Mr. Poe’s list as a possible Staffer, I will leave you with this as to finding 12, heck 4 seats …
You don’t try to look for any seats, then you WILL… win NO seats.
You keep up that defeatist attitude.
If you aren’t helping, you’re hurting…
Guess which one you are?
- Phenomynous - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:41 pm:
12 seats over the course of the next 7 years isn’t unthinkable…Especially under great leadership and a active and engaging program. This could be a potentially huge opportunity and I hope it isn’t wasted.
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 3:55 pm:
Oh- Oswego
I have spent quite a lot time over the years helping candidates and the party. I have actually been doing, not just blogging. Most likely spending more of my own money and time than you could ever imagine.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 4:01 pm:
Oh - Downstater -,
Why spend ALL that time…
Why spend ALL that money, money …” than I can imagine”…
Why waste ALL of that… with a defeatist attitude?
I never claimed you don’t do ALL you do, spend, waste, whatever. That is on you.
My Party has a chance with a Nee Beginning in the HGOP, and no matter what you think you go more than me, spend more than me, and not KNOWING me, I know being a defeatist with this gift if “Two-Putt” leaving, seems to be wasted on defeatist.
If you ain’t helping, you’re hurting.
No matter… ALL … you do.
- Downstater - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 4:07 pm:
Oswego, you still haven’t been able to name the 4 seats the Republicans could pick up in this next cycle. Again, you strong on generalities and weak on specifics.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 4:17 pm:
Oh, - Downstater -,
That is not my role here. If you think there are NO seats, golly, you must be right.
There is not ONE Tier One Targeted seat.
Not a single one.
Here is what I do know;
Working “real hard” and getting Veto-Proofed is something the Cross Senior Staff was real good at, so… If you want to break down the seats, bless your heart.
Since you spend more money than I can ever imagine in politics, contact - Arthur Andersen - and get our rates for those “heck 4 seats” for ya. We have reasonable rates, - AA -, had the menu for the Con$ulting Firm!
- Been There - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 4:25 pm:
===Maybe there is more to the guy than I am seeing.====
Pulled pork and fried chicken to start.
- shore - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 4:32 pm:
I’m inclined to like Durkin but his senate bid from 2002 memory was that he struggled to raise $$ and had major problems with hastert because he had backed mccain over bush in 2000.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 7:41 pm:
Meh, the likes of Sheila Simon and Tom Cross just hanging around for another payday does not excite me in the least.
I wish Ed Sullivan would give it a try. The guy has guts. Maybe he could help drag the party of Lincoln into the sunshine of human rights. Kirk and JBT have his back, it would light a fire among Independents and get the Illinois GOP back on the path where they need to be, a leader for our country.
As for the bedroom-peekers who want to keep their boots on the necks of my fellow citizens, pack a lunch, it’s going to be an all-day job.
- fake county chairman - Thursday, Aug 22, 13 @ 8:56 pm:
I am pretty sure this will be Poes last term.Expect Mr Noll to run for his seat. A nice position for Mr Noll after losing to Sam.
- Keyser Soze - Friday, Aug 23, 13 @ 11:42 am:
Poe does make pretty good fried chicken.