Tobin picks a horse
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
Mr. Rauner this morning got an endorsement from another figure who doesn’t rank very high on the friends-of-labor list. That would be Jim Tobin, a prominent critic of public-sector pensions and pay levels who’s best-known for heading the group Taxpayers United of Illinois.
Another group he heads, Taxpayer Accountability, also endorsed Mr. Rauner today, along with Jim Oberweis for the U.S. Senate. Said Mr. Tobin in a statement: “Bruce Rauner is a successful businessman and strong leader with the fiscal experience to save Illinois from its history of failed and criminal leadership. Bruce has pledged to repeal the 67 percent state income tax increase surcharge and to perform a complete overhaul of the state’s tax policies to simplify and eliminate the corporate welfare that burdens individuals and small businesses.”
* Let’s look back a couple of years to when Tobin was vilifying Abraham Lincoln…
Lincoln’s real priority was not the slaves but the collection of revenue. He knew that a low-tax independent South would attract far more European trade to its relatively duty free ports like Charleston, Savannah and New Orleans, and that goods could easily be smuggled from there across the long border the U.S. would share with the Confederacy. Lincoln’s mercantilist plans would be foiled, and Lincoln was a true mercantilist. He believed in increasing a nation’s wealth by government regulation of all of the nation’s commercial interests. […]
Rather than wish Lincoln a Happy Birthday, perhaps we can celebrate the birth of William Henry Harrison (February 9, 1773). Having died only a month into his first term as President, Harrison did not live long enough to do nearly as much damage as Lincoln.
And…
Did Lincoln save the Union? Not if the Union was a voluntary association of States that delegated limited, enumerated powers to the federal government as it was prior to the war.
Lincoln’s use of military force against the peaceful secession of southern states gutted the Ninth and Tenth Amendments and laid the foundation for the federal leviathan we have today.
There’s somebody you want in your camp.
…Adding… Tobin must’ve thought Fort Sumter was an “inside job” or something. The secession wasn’t at all “peaceful.”
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* Bruce Rauner’s statement that he most definitely wanted to lower the minimum wage by a dollar an hour is becoming quite a big story, despite his attempt to walk back the demand yesterday.
As noted below, all four Republican gubernatorial candidates have now weighed in on the minimum wage issue. And now it’s moved into the state treasurer’s race. From a press release…
Republican Gubernatorial candidate and billionaire Bruce Rauner announced yesterday that he supports lowering Illinois’ minimum wage rate from $8.25 to $7.25. Representative Tom Cross has a long history of rejecting minimum wage increases, most recently voting against increases in 2003 and 2006. If Tom Cross had his way, the minimum wage would still be $4.25 cents an hour as it was when he was first elected. The Cross\Rauner plan to stop an increase or even lower the minimum wage is mean-spirited and would drain millions from our economy and throw thousands more into poverty.
State Senator Mike Frerichs, Democratic candidate for State Treasurer, released the following statement responding to Rauner’s ridiculous idea;
“I’m shocked by billionaire Bruce Rauner’s attack on working families who are just trying to earn a living. Bruce Rauner says that he wants Illinois to be competitive with surrounding states. If he really means that, then he should join our President in his effort to raise the minimum wage for everyone in this country.
Perhaps Rauner took his cues from Tom Cross who in the last ten years voted against raising the minimum wage twice (2003 and 2006) and as recently as last year agreed that raising the minimum wage was a “job killer”. It’s not surprising that Rauner has partnered with Tom Cross by giving the maximum of $10,600 to Cross’ campaign.
Bruce Rauner and Tom Cross represent what the Illinois Republican Party is comprised of; clueless candidates who denigrate low-income workers and stack the deck against working families just trying to get ahead. I repudiate Rauner’s race to the bottom in wages and urge people to sign my petition at www.FrerichsforIllinois.com/supportminwage and tell Rauner and Cross to stand with working families and support President Obama’s call to raise the minimum wage.”
One minor correction. Rauner actually made his original statement on December 11th, according to John Gregory at the Illinois Radio Network, not yesterday. It was reported yesterday, but the quote had been sitting around a while.
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Red ink as far as the eye can see
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The governor’s budget office has posted its new three-year projection as required by law. Here’s the projection for revenue losses due to the expiration of the temporary income tax hike. These are fiscal years and the first line is for personal income tax receipts and the second line is for corporate receipts…
* Without changing any state laws or programs, GOMB is projecting a $1.9 billion deficit in FY 2015, $4.1 billion by 2016 and $4.6 billion by 2017. And the state’s bill backlog is projected to grow to $16.2 billion by the end of FY 2017.
The budget office’s spending projections (which you can see here) use existing law with existing programs, and calculate savings from the pension reform bill in FY 16 and 17. So, they’re projecting increases all around. But those increases won’t exist without those income tax revenues.
* From Voices for Illinois Children…
According to GOMB projections, revenue losses due to the scheduled decrease in income tax rates will lead to budget shortfalls of $1.9 billion in fiscal year 2015 (which begins in July 2014), $4.1 billion in FY 2016, and $4.6 billion in FY 2017. Closing gaps of this magnitude would require draconian cuts to programs and services that are essential for the well-being of children, families, and communities across Illinois.
The state’s investments in early childhood education, K-12 education, and higher education — which have eroded over the past five years — would be significantly undermined. Programs such as child care assistance, afterschool programs, child protection services, and a wide range of community-based services for families, people with disabilities, and seniors would be in serious jeopardy.
* From the Senate Republicans…
Because the major portion of the 2011 tax hike is set to expire automatically, the budget office was required to assume that the state will lose those dollars. The drop in that revenue coupled with the anticipated spending growth has the potential to create the largest deficits the state has ever seen.
The figures released by the Governor’s office clearly reveal that without a decrease in spending, the state will be forced to choose between higher taxes and massive deficits. Ever since the tax hike was imposed during a lame-duck legislative session in 2011, Senate Republicans have warned that significant spending reductions were needed to allow for the tax increase to expire as promised.
The projections from Quinn’s budget office reveal the Governor plans to continue to increase state spending regardless of whether or not the state has any money.
Not quite. The projections, as explained above, were put together using existing laws and programs.
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* Bruce Rauner may, depending on the day, want to lower the minimum wage by a dollar an hour, but Sen. Kirk Dillard says he wants the “marketplace” to decide what the minimum wage should be. To me, at least, that sounds like he wants no statutory minimum wage at all.
Audio courtesy of John Gregory at the Illinois Radio Network…
The quote, in case you can’t listen to audio files at work…
“I am a, what I guess is known as a Jeffersonian free market principle guy. And I believe that the marketplace ought to set everything, including the minimum wage.”
Dillard also said he was against raising the minimum wage because it would cost jobs. Then he added this…
“The people who push for it in Springfield generally are Chicago legislators, minority legislators. But it really hurts the minority community because they’ll have fewer jobs for those in the minority community that those who try to push these things through the legislature are really trying to help.”
* By the way, John at IRN also shared the full Bruce Rauner audio where the candidate said unequivocally that he wanted to roll back the minimum wage by a dollar an hour…
Rauner’s quote…
“I will advocate moving the Illinois minimum wage back to the national minimum wage. I think we’ve got to be competitive here in Illinois. It’s critical we’re competitive. We’re hurting our economy by having the minimum wage above the national. We’ve got to move back to the national.”
Seems clear to me.
*** UPDATE *** From a press release…
Senator Bill Brady, Republican candidate for Governor, today said proposals by two gubernatorial candidates to change Illinois’ minimum wage rates are counter-productive for Illinois job growth and working families.
“We have Governor Quinn proposing to raise the minimum wage to $10 an hour, and Bruce Rauner talking about lowering it by $1. They are both out-of-touch with the needs of Illinois families and Illinois business,” Brady said.
“If we raise the rate, we discourage job growth. If we cut it, we impact hard-working Illinois families who depend on a minimum wage as better jobs continue to leave Illinois,” Brady said.
“I believe the state and minimum wage rates need to be paired and support a moratorium on increases in the Illinois minimum wage until the federal rate has caught up with ours,” he said.
Illinois’ minimum wage rate of $8.25 an hour is the fourth highest in the country and $1 higher than the federal rate.
“I understand the need for a reasonable minimum wage, as Illinois and the nation have lost higher-paying manufacturing jobs to service industry employment,” Brady said. “My focus will be on restoring more of those higher-paying jobs to Illinois, giving more of our families larger paychecks.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From a press release…
Illinois State Treasurer Dan Rutherford does not support lowering the state’s minimum wage, nor does he support increasing it at this time.
“Lowering the minimum wage in Illinois is a bad idea. Doing so would place an unfair burden on workers. I will never be a fan of taking money from peoples’ wallets, and that’s what lowering the minimum wage would do.”
“I believe every American should be able to make as much money as possible, legally and ethically. State government should not put an artificial cost of doing business increase on a business, church or local unit of government by increasing the minimum wage.”
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Today’s numbers ain’t good
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I don’t think this means people are having fewer babies. Pretty sure it means people are leaving…
The Land of Lincoln grew by only about 52,000 residents between the last census on April 1, 2010, and the latest estimate, on July 1, 2013, the bureau said.
In the last year of that period — from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013 — the growth rate was 0.1 percent, with the state gaining an estimated 13,943 residents to reach a population of 12,883,135.
In comparison, the country as a whole grew about 2 percent since the census, adding 7.4 million people for a total of 316.1 million.
Illinois’ very slow growth was outpaced by the Midwest region for the most recent year-over-year comparison. During the period, the regional population grew 0.3 percent.
Ugh.
Full data here.
* Since the last full Census, Illinois’ population grew 0.2 percent. Nearby states…
Indiana: 1.34%
Michigan: 0.12%
Ohio: 0.3%
Wisconsin: 0.98%
Discuss.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Zorn wants term limits for legislative leaders in order to get rid of Speaker Madigan…
Gov. Pat Quinn and Rauner support leadership term limits, though their first choice is legislative term limits, according to their spokesmen. The other three Republican gubernatorial candidates — Treasurer Dan Rutherford and Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard — support leadership term limits.
The public is also enthusiastic: A September 2012 poll of Illinois voters by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found that 78 percent support the idea.
And yet. Illinois lawmakers have introduced proposed constitutional amendments to limit the terms of legislative leaders 10 times since 2007 and never gotten so much as a committee vote — a pattern of failure seen in seven other states in the last 15 years.
No state has such limits in its constitution, analyst Brenda Erickson said.
There’s an effective limit on the terms of Senate presidents in 14 states where the lieutenant governor is term limited and also serves as the president of the state Senate. Four states limit leadership terms either by chamber rules or caucus rules, and one state, Maine, has statutory but not constitutional limits.
It’s hard not to think that the reason such a popular and obvious proposal has such trouble moving through legislatures is that the men and women whose job security is threatened by leadership limits are the same men and women who have the power to sidetrack legislation.
* The Question: Would you support a ten-year term limit for all four state legislative leaders? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
online polls
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Rauner now hedges on lowering minimum wage
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Southern Illinoisan…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner’s “Shake Up Springfield” bus tour made a stop Tuesday at the Italian Village restaurant in Carbondale.
Rauner called Illinois the worst run state in America, citing high unemployment, deficits and deteriorating schools. […]
Rauner would not rule out minimum wage increases or decreases, but he said any change to the minimum wage should be a comprehensive approach that makes labor regulations and the tax burden more attractive to small businesses and improves the education system.
Hedging, eh?
* Here’s what John Gregory at the Illinois Radio Network reported him saying at an earlier time…
Bruce Rauner believes Illinois should do the opposite, and lower it to $7.25. “I will advocate moving the Illinois minimum wage back to the national minimum wage. I think we’ve got to be competitive here in Illinois,” Rauner said.
Sounds like a strong position, forcefully held.
* But that IRN quote was picked up by the mainstream media after I posted it here, so Rauner may have decided to run away from his “courageous” position. Here’s Rauner’s full Carbondale quote from yesterday, provided by SI reporter Chris Hottensen…
“What we should really do is be comprehensive in our approach. We need to become pro-business again. If we do raise the minimum wage, we should do it in the context of making our labor regulations and our tax burden much more attractive to small business so we have a growing economy so everybody’s got jobs. The reality is if we only increase the minimum wage we could end up hurting the very folks we’re trying to help. Unemployment could go up, small business owners could shut their doors, business owners could leave the state. We have to be competitive and if we don’t have a booming economy with people getting hired we’ll defeat the very purpose for raising the minimum wage.
“If we move it to a level where we are at the same level as the national wage that will allow us to be competitive and create more job opportunities.
“But to lower it would hurt some lower income folks and we should only do that in the context of dramatically improving our schools and creating a business environment where everybody’s got jobs so we don’t have such a brutally high unemployment rate.”
Yep, that’s a hedge, and not a very artful one, either.
* The national polling on this issue has been pretty clear. Click here to see several polls that show strong support for hiking the minimum wage.
* A December Washington Post-ABC poll asked “The minimum wage in this country is now seven dollars and 25 cents an hour. What do you think it should be?”
All respondents…
Republicans…
Conservatives…
Conservative Republicans…
So, even a strong 60 percent majority of conservative Republicans would like to see an increase in the minimum wage. While a quarter or so would like it to remain the same or lowered, and a tiny handful says it needs to be eliminated.
No wonder he’s hedging.
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Dillard wants lots more debates with Rauner
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I told you yesterday that Bruce Rauner had agreed to five debates. Kirk Dillard believes he ought to agree to far more. From a press release…
The Dillard-Tracy campaign today released the list of debates and forums in which they will be participating in the coming months. This list is in addition to the many other forums that Senator Dillard and State Representative Tracy have already participated in.
January 11 Women’s Republican Club Lake Forest/Lake Bluff Forum
January 14 Will County GOP Tea Party Debate
January 16 Daily Herald Forum
January 20 Chicago Tonight/WTTW - Mikva Challenge (Gubernatorial)
January 21 WGN/Chicago Tribune Debate
January 22 Union League Club Debate
January 23 Illinois Public Broadcasters/League of Women Voters Debate
February 3 Sun-Times Candidate Forum
February 4 Illinois Manufacturers’ Association Debate
February 10 WLS-AM/NW Suburban Townships Debate
February 16 Illinois Forum Debate
February 18 Citizens Club of Springfield Debate
February 20 Illinois Mechanical & Specialty Contractors Forum
February 25 Quad Cities Chamber of Commerce Debate
February 25 Chicago Tonight/WTTW - Mikva Challenge (Lt. Governor)
February 27 ABC7 Chicago/League of Women Voters Debate/Univision
March 4 NBC5/University of Chicago Debate
March 6 Chicago Tonight/WTTW Lt. Governor Debate
March 13 Chicago Tonight/WTTW Gubernatorial Debate
Debates and forums are an important way for voters to learn more about the candidates and their positions. The Rauner campaign recently announced that it will participate in 5 events, none of which are in January.
“It’s curious that Bruce Rauner has decided to skip all debates and forums in January,” Campaign Manager Glenn Hodas said. “Perhaps they interfere with his Montana fly-fishing vacation plans with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Regardless, we’ll be here in Illinois, talking about bringing more jobs to our state, and Bruce can return to the conversation after his trip.”
That January 23rd debate is particularly important to Downstate public TV stations. Rauner ought to agree to that one.
But, on the whole, I’m not sure if many people care what debates that candidates engage in. And since Rauner has positioned himself as the “inevitable frontrunner,” limiting his debate exposure is an expected move.
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Not ready for prime time
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
[Earceen Alexander] was a laborer on a city garbage truck nearly 10 years ago when she was pinned between a telephone pole and the truck. The vehicle’s driver, Denise Alcantar, was an inexperienced city employee who owed her job to the Hispanic Democratic Organization’s clout.
Alexander’s thigh was gashed, her pelvis broken and a lung damaged, forcing her to remain in a wheelchair, tethered to an oxygen tank, for much of the following five years until she died in 2008, at age 63.
Her daughter Angelique Boyd felt a measure of redemption for her mother’s death when Al Sanchez, once Mayor Richard M. Daley’s top Streets and San man, went to federal prison a few years ago for rigging the hiring process to favor HDO campaign foot soldiers.
Sanchez is now running for county board. His response to a Sun-Times inquiry…
“It was an accident,” Sanchez said Tuesday of the 2003 incident that maimed Alexander. “It happens with Streets and San. Everybody wants to make a bigger deal out of it.”
OK, it was an accident. These things do happen. But a candidate who is this callous really ought to rethink his decision to run for public office.
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The unions prepare a Rauner assault
Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* While I was away, some reporters began to pick up bits and pieces of the anti Bruce Rauner movement building among organized labor. From Bernie’s column on December 26th…
Rich Miller, publisher of the Capitol Fax newsletter and associated website, reported this week in his syndicated column that sources tell him labor unions are “moving ever closer to jumping into this primary battle.” The intent, he said, is to “spend a … few million bucks” to try to defeat candidate Bruce Rauner of Winnetka in the primary, because if Rauner is the GOP nominee, it would cost “tens of millions to fend him off in the fall.”
Of even further interest in central Illinois, Miller reported to his subscribers last week that several sources say that while some unions plan to work with the Democratic Governors Association to build this challenge, other unions instead will be involved in forming a separate organization to pay for ads. And, Miller said, “several sources” told him that Steve Shearer will run that group.
Shearer is Congressman Aaron Schock’s former chief of staff.
More Bernie…
In light of reports in Capitol Fax, Roman passed along Schock’s statement that also was given to the website. In it, Schock said in part of Shearer: “At no time did we discuss his future plans or employment.”
“Regarding this effort,” Schock said of the reported anti-Rauner push, “I have never been a party to any campaign to influence the outcome of the Republican primary for governor. I have met with several of the candidates who are running for the Republican nomination for governor, and I may get involved in the primary at a later date.”
Shearer was not available for comment.
* The Sun-Times tried to take some credit…
Rauner’s three opponents are struggling to register on the radar. Earlier this month, Illinois Federation of Teachers President Dan Montgomery telegraphed the move to the Sun-Times, saying Republican primary involvement could be in the cards. Montgomery and other unions were incensed about pension-reform legislation that makes wholesale changes to the structure of public-employee benefits. It had the IFT as well as other unions looking at all available political options.
More…
Two of the other three Republican competitors — Sen. Kirk Dillard, R-Hinsdale, and Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford — opposed pension reform legislation, keeping alive their chances to get union support. Dillard has already been the beneficiary of $250,000 in teacher union money, campaign finance records show. Dillard and state Sen. Bill Brady, R-Bloomington, are demonstrating dismal fundraising so far. Rutherford has remained consistent in bringing in money, but none of the three can compete with the $100,000 checks Rauner is bringing in with ease. And Rutherford and the others aren’t generating enough cash to sustain a TV ad campaign to target Rauner’s vulnerabilities, including his ties to Democratic Mayors Richard M. Daley and Rahm Emanuel.
Attack ads against Rauner from a third party could be a game-changer in this race.
* Back to Bernie…
Paperwork was filed with the State Board of Elections last week to form The Republican Fund for Progress and Jobs, which is an independent expenditure political action committee. The chairman and treasurer is STEVEN SHEARER of Peoria, former chief of staff and campaign manager to state Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Peoria.
This is apparently a group that will gather money from anti-Rauner forces, particularly labor unions — as was recently tipped in Capitol Fax.
As an independent expenditure group, the new PAC can raise unlimited amounts, but it cannot make direct contributions to candidates or coordinate expenditures with candidates.
The media focus so far has been on the Shearer PAC, but the DGA’s PAC appears to be the one that will carry the heaviest load. Subscribe for more info.
* Meanwhile, unions are also sending cash to Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign fund. Ormsby…
In the last quarter of the year, Governor Pat Quinn disclosed on Tuesday that he raised nearly $2 million.
In two campaign finance filings with the state election board, Quinn reported $1,970,232 in large contributions, the bulk of which came from trade unions.
The top union checks include:
$250,000 – Operating Engineers Local 150
$150,000 – IBEW
$100,000 – Plumbers, Pipefitters Union
$100,000 – Laborers Union
$100,000 – Painters Union
$50,000 – Illinois Pipe Trades
$50,000 – Illinois Associated Fire Fighters
$30,000 – Chicago Regional Carpenters
Discuss.
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