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Question of the day

Wednesday, Feb 5, 2014

* Dan Rutherford is going up on the air this week with a “modest” Downstate TV ad buy. No Chicago, according to the Sun-Times

“We have the resources to bring our message directly to the voters,” said Rutherford in the statement. “No longer will the television and radio space be dominated by a ‘billionaire bully’ who feels his money entitles him to the nomination.” […]

“All the stuff he has ready to go is positive,” Rutherford spokesman Brian Sterling told the Sun-Times. […]

Sterling said there’s no truth to rumors that Rutherford is considering dropping out of the race.

“Almost just the opposite has happened with our volunteer base,” Sterling told the Sun-Times.

“On Saturday we had a volunteer rally in Morris. It was snowing like hell and we had almost 100 volunteers come out. Our supporters are rallying behind him. I don’t think he’s concerned about how this sits with his supporters because I’m sure he’s going to be vindicated.”

* The Question: Do you think Dan Rutherford will still be in the governor’s race on primary day? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


survey tools

- Posted by Rich Miller        


58 Comments
  1. - Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    I voted “yes”. After all, what does he have to lose at this point.

    If he were to come in second, it sets him up for another state wide run.


  2. - Southwest Cook - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    Rutherford has been running for Governor for twenty years. There’s no quitting now.


  3. - Percival - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    He has the money the others do not, and he has some outs on the charges. The only way for him to get knocked out is if a series of employees testify to misconduct. If his internal report clears him, he needs to get that out ASAP. Right now he is a defenseless piñata.


  4. - Raymond - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    Dan may well be toast - he will be dogged by this “scandal” for the next couple weeks, at least - but I can’t imagine him giving up.

    It’s been clear since his first year as treasurer that he is shooting for a higher office. He immediately beefed up the office’s communications team and has basically been campaigning non-stop (albeit via official treasurer activities) through his entire term.

    Maybe I’m missing something, but what does he have to lose by staying in the race?


  5. - too obvious - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    If he drops out he would just be saying it’s all true.

    But if Dan wants to remain viable he needs to get on offense and explain what’s going on. He’s falling fast.


  6. - Norseman - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    If you define “in” as legally running, the yes would be your answer. I’m defining “in” as has a credible chance to win and based on that definition I’d have to go with no.

    He’s having problem dealing with his recent issue and that will continue. His “positive” modest buy came too late. Now he needs to hit and hit hard. I don’t see that coming.


  7. - What if, what happens? - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:37 pm:

    What if he somehow wins the primary and then the investigation comes up with something that makes him ineligible to run in the general, how is the stand in decided? Or worse yet if he also wins the general then the investigation finds it is factual and he has to step down.

    Only in Illinois………


  8. - RNUG - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:37 pm:

    Voted yes. Staying in lends credibility to his denial. He has nothing to lose …


  9. - MrJM - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    (The facts we know) × (the usual political variables) × (multi-millionaire opponent) = too early to tell.

    – MrJM


  10. - Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    I don’t see a survival path.

    If the charges are verified, he’s toast.

    Because of the Rauner accusations, Rauner will run a few million in ads against him in retribution.

    If the charges against Rauner are false, he looks VERY petulant and not gubernatorial material.

    Only if the charges are false and the Rauner charges true lies hope.

    I just don’t see a path given we’re only 41 days away.


  11. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    === how is the stand in decided?===

    Kinda uncharted territory since he has a running mate. But I figure it would prolly be the state party, just like with Jack Ryan.


  12. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    At this point, 65% he drops out - 35% he stays.

    It depends almost entirely on how “scandalous” the details that emerge over the next couple of weeks are and the supporting facts. The early indications are not good at all for Rutherford right now.

    It also depends on whether the Rutherford crew suffers any more self-inflicted wounds like that press conference.


  13. - Ray del Camino - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    My gut react was “no,” but I pulled the “too early” lever instead.


  14. - Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    I believe he will stay in. He is a determined person. The only question remaining is will he finish strong or as a wounded duck?


  15. - L.S. - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    unless he does something drastic, the current trajectory is pretty bad. Over the next 10-14 days this tawdry narrative is going to start to set in and it’s lights out.


  16. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    I voted “no.” He only seems to have money when compared to Brady and Dillard.

    He certainly doesn’t have enough money to change the subject. He won’t raise another dime now.

    As far as what does he have to lose, one possibility is the continuation of this story and further scrutiny. There’s blood in the water, and that’s when the sharks come…..

    I can envision a withdrawal where he devotes his time to defend himself against the current charges and gets himself off the front pages.


  17. - DuPage Rep - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:50 pm:

    What do you think the lead story is going to be on the 5, 6, and 10 o’clock news tonight? The latest snow storm….. NO. It is going to be the letter, along with the trips with the male staffer. I voted No because I think Dan is smart enough to know there is no walking back that goofy press conference, and the little old ladies in tennis shoes that once thought Dan was a nice boy do not like sexual harassment charge(s) made by an man against a male.


  18. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    I voted yes - not sure what he has to lose at this point. I am…doubtful…this “situation” will be resolved in any meaningful way by March 18, I don’t really think truth is out there. But that said, he’s toast. I think he’ll end in the 9-12% range.


  19. - RNUG - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    ==What if he somehow wins the primary and then the investigation comes up with something that makes him ineligible to run in the general==

    From the State level, eligibility to run seems pretty straightforward; he should still pass the three items.

    Constitution of the State of Illinois, ARTICLE V,
    SECTION 3. ELIGIBILITY

    To be eligible to hold the office of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Comptroller or Treasurer, a person must be a United States citizen, at least 25 years old, and a resident of this State for the
    three years preceding his election.

    ————

    BTW - while doublechecking the above, I found an interesting sidebar note about Gov. Joseph W. Fifer (R) asserting during Gov. Len Small’s trial that the governorship of Illinois had the divine right of kings. Wonder if that is where Rauner got the idea?


  20. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:54 pm:

    I voted too early to tell. I wonder how big the scandal is to people who aren’t hyper-plugged into Illinois politics. I’ve had friends not in the scene mention it in passing, knowing I am “plugged in” but I just can’t get a sense from the everyday folk. It’s big news here, sure, but I would assume Rauner would not be polling well if Capitol Fax was sampled. I am curious to see whenever the next poll is put into the field to see the effect it’s having because I have no handle on it.


  21. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:00 pm:

    Rutherford could always stay in the race just to
    expose Mitt Rauner’s true colors and return the “favor”.

    Save the party from itself. Since apparently no one else is going to do it.


  22. - Chavez-respecting Obamist - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    === how is the stand in decided?===

    OMG, please don’t bring Alan Keyes back.


  23. - Throwing Stones - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Yes as this seems to me to be the current race……

    exploit some nursing homes…………………..))) rauner

    factory workers are lazy…………………………)))) brady

    pick up one of these guys at work…..)))) RUTHERFORD

    Brady pulling ahead by a hair but Rutherford hanging in.


  24. - E Man - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Voted no. Ditto what Word said, exactly.


  25. - Exhausted - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:09 pm:

    He will stay the same way he did for SOS when, as happened, he was getting walloped in the polls. He is a self-driven, minipulative politician. His personal impression of himself will not allow him to quit. The only way he could be out is if he were found quilty of misuse of state funds or resources for political use. That is not going to happen before the primary nor even before the General. Prosecution just doesn’t move that quickly. As in: Blago, Ryan and Smith. Slow is the nature of the game…..


  26. - Konda Chilly - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    Rutherford’s ad guy is the most nervous guy in America. His mission is to get Dan to spend his money before he drops out of the race.


  27. - Darienite - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    Too early to tell. Agree w/ Johnny Q. Suburban and disagree with DuPage Dan. While it will be mentioned in tonight’s news, the weather and the proposal to eliminate horse-drawn carriages will lead. And Ch. 5 has to talk about the Olympics.


  28. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    He’s staying in. GOP primary voters tend not believe the mainstream media.

    Also and more importantly, with what was discussed on the blog that DR is a very hardworker, but at the same time very big headed. He’s running his own campaign thinking he knows what is best. And I might be overgeneralizing, but all politicians are ambitious and have a huge ego. Ever since Rutherford has been Treasurer he has had his sights on the Springfield mansion. There’s no way he drops with his ambition, ego, and career goal only 9 months away. He’s come to far to quit, even with everything that has happened in the past 5 days.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    All things being equal, I vote NO.

    This is a game of Texas Hold Em.

    All four are “all in”, unless a bad “river card” sinks them before all 5 are shown.

    Dan wants to see all five, even if his Two Pair are now a pair of Deuces.


  30. - walker - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:21 pm:

    No. He had a long shot, and I was looking forward to him taking it. This just makes the odds beyond reach.


  31. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    I’ll say too early to tell, though I’m leaning no. Let’s see if the “letter writer” has facts or witnesses to back up his accusations.


  32. - Nearly Normal - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:24 pm:

    Voted yes. Dan will stay in. I worked on his first campaign in 1992 and I know he is stubborn and will want to stay in. I think he has been running towards governor since that date.


  33. - chad - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:29 pm:

    Dan stays in if the allegations are weak or vague. As for the charges of Rauner involvement, the $3,500 retainer — if that is all there is –might not pass the crowd on this blog, but maybe it satisfies Joe and Jane voter. So why walk away?


  34. - VictorNorth - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:29 pm:

    Voted “no”. Donations will shrivel.


  35. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    Johnny Q. Suburban - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 2:54 pm: ===I voted too early to tell. I wonder how big the scandal is to people who aren’t hyper-plugged into Illinois politics. I’ve had friends not in the scene mention it in passing, knowing I am “plugged in” but I just can’t get a sense from the everyday folk.==

    Johnny Q. I have had the same experience with otherwise intelligent people not understanding that Rauner is not just some wealthy bidnessman with a cheap watch. Some know he is an insider who has clouted the system for years and they are fine with the real Rauner. The others, just low information voters.

    I guess the same applies to Rutherford. Assuming there is truth to the harassment and politicking on state time, your average LIVs.

    Problem is, I always figured Rutherford or Dillard for the only hope of taking on Rauner in the primary and Quinn in the general. Now, Quinn will hammer both Rauner and Rutherford.

    But then again, enough morons voted for Blago when it was privately known he was dirt and publicly known he was under investigation.


  36. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    Sorry–meant:
    your average LIVs will still vote for him.


  37. - walker - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:40 pm:

    =====Ditto what Word said, exactly.====

    Ain’t that the truth!

    The man’s got game!


  38. - Toure's Latte - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:55 pm:

    I voted yes. This is Inside Baseball. Voters don’t care and are numbed by ‘unknown people’ making ‘unspecified allegations’. Stay in, take your lumps, lose, live to run another day…say, in two years against Mark Kirk.


  39. - Smoggie - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:55 pm:

    I voted too early.

    On its face, these are particularly bad allegations in a GOP primary, but if information comes out that casts major doubt on the credibility of the accuser, Dan could still rebound.


  40. - Wally - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:55 pm:

    Donations will shrivel? Perhaps, but right now, DR has more than double the money in the bank that Brady and Dillard have—combined. He has a strong base and he will still raise money, even more than a dime.


  41. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    ===DR has more than double the money in the bank that Brady and Dillard have—combined.===

    To that …

    ===He only seems to have money when compared to Brady and Dillard.

    He certainly doesn’t have enough money to change the subject.===

    There is money, then there is MONEY.

    Just saying…


  42. - Wally - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:07 pm:

    DR has to get votes that Brady and Dillard may get, his money will help in that regard. DR will get votes in the Chicago area that would likely not go to Rauner, in spite of the $ Rauner spends.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:09 pm:

    - Wally -,

    A week ago, that had legs, but since Friday, that looks les and less likely.


  44. - Samurai - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:20 pm:

    Wally - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:07 pm: ==DR has to get votes that Brady and Dillard may get, his money will help in that regard==

    The real question is where do DR’s votes go if these charges are substantiated.


  45. - Ignatius_reilly - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:26 pm:

    I voted no. I do not know where his money will come from. The conservative money men will shy away; and the moderates (who are mostly business types) will want nothing with this workplace harassment allegations.


  46. - Henry Clay - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:41 pm:

    If Rauner keeps ratcheting up the political ads and the polls continue to show Bruce Rauner gaining an overwhelming base of support, Dan will reluctantly pull the pin in the next 2 weeks. Dan is a businessman. He isn’t going to burn good money for a lost cause.


  47. - DuPage - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:47 pm:

    I think no. One accusation could be a Rauner supporter. But three accusers make me think “where there is this much smoke, there might well be a fire.

    These severance packages seem very unusual in governmental agencies. Without more detail it is hard to tell, and as Rich pointed out, personnel matters are supposed to be confidential.


  48. - Sunshine - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 4:50 pm:

    I don’t think so. For the good of the party…..he will step aside. I see Dillard’s chances improving daily.


  49. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 5:36 pm:

    Probably, so I voted “yes.” Unfortunately, as I’ve already suggested, Mr. Rutherford will not emerge victorious. It’s so dang hot in his Kitchen right now, that if you opened up wide all the windows in the House (in THIS Weather, take note!), all the Doors and everything, it’d still be boiling in there!

    The whole Race for him has just turned into a Defensive Tragedy of sorts now, and it’s just too much I’m afraid–even if the TV Ads somehow tout his past Record and can even give him a slight Boost in the Polls somehow, after this horrible allegation out there which has now raised doubts about his integrity and disposition, and at this late hour in the Race, it just won’t be enough of a boost and it’ll just ene-up being all too much for him to have overcome in the end…unbelievable, really–why it was just less than a couple WEEKS ago I really did still think the Treasurer had a decent shot…!

    But life can change “in the blink of an eye” Folks–and, unfortunately, it has in a BIG way for Dan now….


  50. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    That was meant to read above, “…end-up being…!”


  51. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 5:49 pm:

    I’m in the No camp. word makes the best argument for why.


  52. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 5:58 pm:

    I voted “too early” only because I’m pretty sure he and a small core of his supporters will try to stay in it until the end because they’ll continue to believe that he can win. However, I think that will be easier said than done, primarily because of what word had pointed out on another thread.


  53. - midwaygardens - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 6:42 pm:

    Don’t know if the accusations are true or not. But it does seem BR can’t handle a crisis. What his rush to a press conference, blaming an opponent on no credible evidence and poorly handling the investigation tells me, he shouldn’t be trusted with governing.


  54. - Bobo - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 7:35 pm:

    Hey Rauner dude, you outed your own guy


  55. - Fearless Freep - Wednesday, Feb 5, 14 @ 8:38 pm:

    Even if a candidate did “quit the race”, I think it would be too late to have his name actually removed from the ballot. The ballot is a done deal, yes?


  56. - Amuzing Myself - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 8:07 am:

    I voted he stays in based on ego alone. The only thing that might cause him to drop out would be polling showing him finishing last in embarrassing fashion if this scandal has real legs.


  57. - Robo - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 8:43 am:

    Voted yes. This is his life’s mission.


  58. - vibes - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:44 am:

    No real downside in staying in — and these things have a way of subsiding as the attention shifts. Only way he jumps is if unions and Dillard put a big squeeze and can prove to him they will have something to offer (unlikely)


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