Question of the day
Monday, Mar 10, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
If Mr. Dillard really has momentum, the Rauner campaign has the resources to whack him back. The campaign already has up spots criticizing his legislative votes on tax and spending issues. But much of the chatter in political circles last week was about whether the Rauner campaign will question Mr. Dillard’s union ties in paid TV ads, and whether it will remind voters that the senator once cut a television commercial for then-presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Team Rauner isn’t saying what it will do. I’d take that as indication it’s aware that a last-minute, heavily negative campaign would hurt not only Mr. Dillard but potentially backfire on Mr. Rauner, with the Dillard campaign loudly reminding voters that Mr. Rauner is the one who has donated to Mr. Emanuel and other Democrats such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. […]
Four years ago, Mr. Brady was the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, and Mr. Brady still harbors some goodwill among the GOP faithful, particularly downstate.
Mr. Brady also has another path to victory: light turnout. That would mean that traditional Republicans are dominating the party, rather than outraged “time for change” newcomers to whom Mr. Rauner has pitched his campaign.
* Kurt Erickson…
Walking into the Capitol Wednesday with a lawmaker-turned-lobbyist, we chatted about whether Dillard, with the help of the unions, could somehow turn the numbers around in his favor.
“That’s a very big hill to climb in such a short amount of time,” rhymed the former suburban Republican senator.
Later in the day I talked with a veteran member of the Senate — a Democrat — who cautioned that it was still too early to call the race. After all, he said, no one saw Brady — except perhaps Brady — emerging out of the cornstalks to win the 2010 GOP primary.
* Doug Finke…
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees added its endorsement to those Dillard previously won from the Illinois Education Association and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. With the endorsements should come money, which anyone running against multi-millionaire Bruce Rauner is going to need.
The question is how much the endorsements will do for Dillard when the votes are cast.
Everyone knows that turnout in primary elections is sparse. Those most likely to vote are the committed party faithful. Among Republicans, that often means more conservative members of the party, which explains why you often see GOP candidates tacking to the right in the run-up to a primary.
You have to figure that the more conservative wing of the Republican Party will be more receptive to Rauner’s position that public employee unions, or at least their leaders, have been bad for the state and are the cause of many of the state’s problems. So if those are the people more likely to vote in a primary election, it may not do Dillard all that much good to pick up endorsements from public employee unions.
Then again, I talked to somebody over the weekend who saw a tracker that had Dillard in fourth place. Yes, that’s very weird. I don’t know whether to believe those results or not. Strange days.
…Adding… Looks like a normal off-year Democratic turnout and stronger GOP turnout in Chicago. From the Chicago Elections Commission…
2010 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM…………REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)…….9,533………786
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..11,060……1,023
Total for Two Weeks…………20,593……1,809
2012 Early Voting (Presidential Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)……9,993…….1,267
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..10,750……1,382
Total ………………………………20,743……2,649
2014 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 0 (22-16 days out)……NO EARLY VOTING
Week 1 (15-09 days out)…..9,268…….1,753
* The Question: Odds that Brady, Dillard or even Rutherford could surge enough to win the primary?
- Excessively Rabid - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:41 am:
Negligible. I got two mailings and a robocall from Rauner over the weekend. I loathe him and I think his motives are malign, but he’s a prohibitive favorite.
- The Captain - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:42 am:
Low, but I think Brady has the most plausible path simply because I think he has the highest floor of any of the three.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:43 am:
There’s a chance, but it’s a small one and is getting smaller by the day. I’d say it’s 10:1 against anyone surging enough to out-poll Rauner.
As long as it remains a four-way race, and even if someone withdraws now, his name will still be on the ballot, Rauner has the resources and material to keep his lead. The surges might continue, but mostly for second place.
Imagine squeazing a balloon. You squeaze here and the air goes over there. You squeaze there, and the air moves someplace else. If the polling shows that Dillard really is surging, then Rauner can drop the Obama ad on him and the air will rush over to Brady.
- Mr Media - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:44 am:
“Team Rauner isn’t saying what it will do. I’d take that as indication it’s aware that a last-minute, heavily negative campaign would hurt not only Mr. Dillard but potentially backfire on Mr. Rauner,”
I’d take it as an indication that Team Rauner sees no benefit in telling reporters what campaign strategy they’re going to employ the last week.
Really, do reporters think like this? Under what possible scenario would the Rauner campaign want to tell Hinz what ads they are going to run against Dillard?
- Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:46 am:
Another mailing from Dillard, first mailing from Rauner were both delivered on Saturday. Every robocall to date was in support of Dillard.
I think that Dillard is a 10-1 long shot.
- MrJM - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:47 am:
About 1 in 63,001.
A bit less likely than a 1,300-foot asteroid crashing into the Earth in 2032.
– MrJM
- Walker - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:47 am:
Brady supporters praying for a blizzard.
That’s a strategy!
- Susiejones - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:48 am:
as much as I want Rutherford to win, I think Dillard may have a chance. I was at an event (non political) over the weekend and was pleased that so many attendees, mostly from downstate, were turned off by Rauner and his efforts to buy the election. and none of them were happy with the current Governor. but no real front runner on the GOP side when I quizzed people…though Dillard’s name came up more than the others.
- OneMan - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:49 am:
Well from what I uderstand someone was willing to leak the whole union move against Rauner to a well known newsletter publisher giving the campaign a warning.
That being said, I see Team Bruce being more disciplined than that.
- Carol Marin's Credibility - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:51 am:
Dillard at 23-1. The other two at 10,000-1.
- Langhorne - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:51 am:
Odds against a win:
Rutherford 100:1
Brady 50: 1
Dillard 20:1
It is rauners race to lose. I always vote in the repub primary. I was never a rauner vote. In the last wk i have receved two nicey-nice brucey mailers, and two career-fellas type mailers. So the baron seems to be doing a full court press for undecideds, wherever they may be. He only has to get one in three undecideds, and not see his support erode terribly and he wins.
His primary campaign wont cut it for the general
- OneMan - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:51 am:
I give Dillard 3-1 and the rest 10-1 on catching Bruce…
I think the early voting number for Chicago is surprising and a positive for Bruce.
- Frosty-The Snowman - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:51 am:
When I see a union and especially a teacher’s union throw a lot of cash at one of the candidates, that automatically counts as a strike against them in my book. This means “they expect something in return”. I like the fact that Rauner doesn’t need (and doesn’t have a sign out in front of him) implying or inferring that Candidate X is “For Sale”. Dillard has that stain on him with the teachers union(at least to me). Quinn has always looked that way with the unions. Brady and Rauner come across as being “their own man” and donations in return for future favors will probably be wasted on them.
- Downstater - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:52 am:
When people find out the negative ads run by Dillard against Rauner, are funded by teachers unions, there is collective, ” I not voting for Dillard”.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:53 am:
While a majority of the GOP may not approve of Rauner - they are hopelessly split among the three candidates, leaving Rauner with a 75% chance of winning.
Start praying for a miracle - Status Quo!
- phocion - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 10:58 am:
==Really, do reporters think like this?==
Yes. Egotistical bullies who want Pat Quinn re-elected do think like that. Regrets to Rich on opining on his new colleague.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Dillard - 53/1 - $53 million versus one million and squandered days, weeks, months. ASCME and Teachers - GOTV in less than 14 days; biggest ask in a long time.
Brady - 98/1 - won 98 counties, lost the race. Easy number to come up with.
Rutherford - 8,499/1 - equal to number of Twitter followers. Just saying…
- Suburban GOP - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Dillard has a shot, no question. Just look at early 2012 GOP presidential primary states like Iowa and South Carolina for the deficits that can be overcome late by underdogs.
- RNUG - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:02 am:
Rauner is up with at least one negative ad agaist Dillard; it may be new, maybe not, but I heard it on conservative talk radio … which would be targeting the hard core and politically aware GOP primary voter.
- Wensicia - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:02 am:
Light turnout, it could be close, but it’s hard to see anyone passing Rauner in the vote count.
- Tom B. - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:02 am:
Turnout is not going to be light on the GOP side. That is mistaken analysis. Bruce has been up on TV for 6 months, GOPers know there’s an election and some GOP leaning independents will jump into this contest.
- Hit or Miss - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Odds to win the primary look to me to be:
Rutherford 99:1
Brady 99:1
Dillard 50:1
At this point in the race Rauner is the clear winner of the primary. The general election is still an open question.
- Namaste - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:04 am:
I’m a Chicago Dem who pulled a GOP ballot and voted for Dillard. Hope others have as well.
- RNUG - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:08 am:
To the question …
Assming no one pulls out of the primary …
Dillard 20:1
Brady 40:1
Rutherford 10,000:1
If either Brady or Rutherford were to drop out, I would move Dillard to close to dead even with Rauner and say is was too close to call.
Or if there were a last minute, heavily negative expose about Rauner, I would say the race was a three-way tossup (Rutherford has zero chance of a win, and I was a Rutherford supporter).
- Ghost - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:10 am:
Brady won in part because the vote was split so many ways.
I see the same thing pushing Rauner out as the winner. WHile I doubt it would happen, Dillard needs to cal up Brady and Rutherford and maybe offer up some agency director jobs in exchange fro them dropping out of the race and supporting Dillard.
It will never happen for a number of reasons, but that is the key to a non-rauner victory here.
Dillard might prevail if the unions can push their memebers to cross over for the primary and pull a republican ballot. The union still has a strong get out the vote apparatus and if they turn it on, and get mebers to cross over, that could push Dillard over the top.
I see a 33% chance for Dillard to pull it off. 40% if he can get OW endorsement.
- ironman - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:15 am:
Brady will not win the primary. Rutherford is toast. Rauner has everything to lose. Dillard has momentem. Law of physics Dillard wins.
- Soccermom - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:18 am:
Okay. I am fully aware that yard signs don’t vote. I know they are expensive, and that campaigns with scarce resources should put every possible cent into paid media.
NEVERTHELESS — I was out in Hinsdale over the weekend, and didn’t see a single Dillard sign. Shouldn’t his folks be showing support? didn’t look good…
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:25 am:
===…if he can get OW endorsement.===
I am like “Mush”, in “A Bronx Tale”. It would be better to endorse. (Gulp) “Bruce Rauner” for the “Mush Factor”
I am not supporting “the 2 ‘Rs’…”, so they may go 1,2…lol
Thanks - Ghost - though, for thinking of me. Appreciate that.
- Jaws - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:25 am:
“Not good.”
“Not good as in 1 in a100?”
“Is say more like 1 in a million.”
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance. Yeah!”
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:29 am:
Looks like there might already be significant crossover voting going on in the City and the unions have not even asked for it yet.
- Keyser Soze - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:34 am:
Excuse me, this is off point. But, why do Dem early votes outnumber Rep early votes roughly ten to one? What’s going on here?
- Raymond - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:35 am:
=== Well from what I uderstand someone was willing to leak the whole union move against Rauner to a well known newsletter publisher giving the campaign a warning. ===
The would-be Rauner opponents have been leaking their strategy for a couple months (”We’ll soon have an ad that’s even better than this one!”). It’s crazy, and it may well have prompted Rauner to pump more money into the airwaves than he otherwise would have. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:41 am:
==Excuse me, this is off point. But, why do Dem early votes outnumber Rep early votes roughly ten to one? What’s going on here?==
Because those are Chicago-only numbers
- Soccermom - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:41 am:
Raymond — They are Chicago results. Overwhelmingly Democratic, and the Dems have done a great job educating their voters about early voting.
- Soccermom - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:42 am:
Sorry, I meant Keyser Soze.
- Right Field - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:42 am:
== Langhorne…. His primary campaign wont cut it for the general ==
Nor would the other 3’s primary campaigns.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:43 am:
Rauner’s attack ads on Dillard’s union support will only send undecided to Brady because they probably already decided they don’t like Rauner.
Who said Brady had no ad money?
- Irish - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:45 am:
I think Dillard has a chance. I would give him a little less than even money.
Rauner has several things against him. Teachers , teacher unions, public sector unions(including most governmental workers in Chicago, fireman and policemen across the state who are also facing pension issues, his affiliation with Rahm, the ads on the nursing homes have made a lot of seniors suspicious, and the early negative ads. I think he has begun to realize people are getting tired of those early bashing ads as I have seen a change in the tone of his more recent ads.
The above groups make up a large percentage of those who actually go to the polls to vote. Dillard presents a more centered approach and I think he has a chance.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:47 am:
I hate to say it but the chances of a Baron lose are slim and none. GOP primary voters, PLEASE prove me wrong.
- Norseman - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:48 am:
Oops “loss”
- downstate hack - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:52 am:
Dillard 3-1
Brady 20-1
Rutherford, No chance at all.
- wordslinger - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 11:53 am:
No line on Rutherford.
Brady: 25-1
Dillard: 10-1
- MrGrassroots - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 12:07 pm:
The question is whether the endorsements from the various “teachers” organizations will translate into some kind of election day ground game and will it translate into votes. I don’t pretend to know. But “if” the “teachers” pull a Republican ballot in big numbers, it could happen. I typically have a dog in the race. My only dog in the race is that it remain interesting and compelling and so far, so good.
- Mokenavince - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 12:36 pm:
Will March 18th ever get here. If the voters have not chosen by now they never will.
Dillard’s surge still has him losing.
- Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 12:49 pm:
Amen, Mokenavince! I want this primary to end sooner than the 2013-2014 Winter.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 1:39 pm:
5% shot for Dillard. Too little, too late.
BTW, those Dillard ads are hysterical. Dillard was personally responsible for bringing Boeing and host of other items. Everything good that happened when Edgar was governor and since he’s been in the legislature? That’s Dillard. Everything bad? He had nothing to do with it. What a joke.
- Mr. T - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 1:40 pm:
Quinn and Rauner = Not a dimes worth of difference.
- Chavez-respecting Obamist - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 1:51 pm:
I early voted and pulled a Republican ballot. I voted against Rauner and against Oberweis. I have no idea how representative that is of the average person voting in the Republican primary in the city.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 2:18 pm:
The reality for the Dillard Crew is that the Teachers and ASCME need to run the operations through Election Day, due to 2 things; Meshing a GOTV this late with the Unions could derail all GOTV efforts, and Dillard lacks a GOTV to glom on to to begin with.
To measure the impact of maximizing the Unions commitment and execution, we are all going to have to wait for after Election Day.
Huge, huge… huge ask to get dragged over the finish line.
Brady?
Trying to lock up the conservatives as he did, especially that last election, and not factoring in Rauner’s pact this time around, Brady’s challenges come from conservative circles either lacking “education” on Rauner, or ignoring, and holding their nose to vote for Rauner against their Better Self.
Again, tough, tough ask.
Roads are treacherous, hills are steep for both.
- A guy... - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 2:32 pm:
In Vegas, they’d take this one “off the board”. No odds.
- Earnest - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 3:20 pm:
I would put the chances of a non-Rauner win at 10%, which is higher than most. I’m planning to pull a Republican ballot to vote non-Rauner, but I’m torn between whether my vote will be better used for Brady or Dillard. Though Dillard has been making a splash, Brady voters seem to be very solidly for him.
- Robo - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 3:42 pm:
Dillard 30%
Brady 10%
Rutherford 5%
If you don’t have money to get on TV every day, you better have a ground game. The only one who had a semblance of one was Rutherford, and now he has a clipped achilles. It remains to be seen if the unions will supply Dillard with foot soldiers on election day.
- Frosty-The Snowman - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 3:52 pm:
Dillard is viewed by most GOP south of I-80 as a “Chicago Republican”. Brady, on the other hand, is viewed as “removed from Chicagoland” politics. It is sparsely populated in the counties located south of I-80 and beyond the collar counties but as Brady proved the last time that they are pretty loyal to the hometown boys. I would think that the majority of the former Rutherford supporters will line up behind Brady on Election Day before they line up behind Kirk Dillard. Dillard will be looked upon as a carpetbagger regardless of where his Lieutenant Governor comes from.
- JoeInPeoria - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 4:07 pm:
My point: It’s a 4 way Primary race with 4 capable contenders, so just about anything can happen. Anyone who thinks that they can predict this is crazy!!! Running an anti-Dillard TV commercial the last week, showing his pro-Obama endorsement will absolutely kill his chances, in this 4 way race.
- park - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 5:29 pm:
Not good. I think people are either for Rauner, or he’s their second choice. Example: I’m for Dillard, but would vote Rauner over Brady, Rutherford. Brady has sort of ‘been there’ doesn’t have an image in the Chicago area. Rutherford is just damaged. I think most R’s favor their guy, but are attracted to the electibility of Rauner, and his hot points like term limits (I know he doesn’t have the ability to impose them, but pro-choicers consistently choose candidates on the basis of similar positions, despite the fact that Roe v. Wade is the law of the land—-emotion on these issues is as big a factor as reality).
Hope my guy wins. But if not him, then Rauner. I’ll bet most R’s feel the same.
- Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Mar 10, 14 @ 6:42 pm:
Dillard: 8-1; Brady: 20-1; DR: (sorry, just not a chance now, but glad you’re staying in it, in the name of Democracy)…!
- Percival - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 9:33 am:
Zero.