Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Proft claims poll shows Matune lead
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Proft claims poll shows Matune lead

Friday, Mar 14, 2014

* From Dan Proft…

Liberty Principles PAC-backed Keith Matune Opens Up a Lead on incumbent Ron Sandack

Conservative challenger Keith Matune has opened up a lead on incumbent Republican State Rep. Ron Sandack entering the final weekend before the Republican Primary Election on Tuesday, March 18.

Over the course of the last 7 weeks, Matune has steadily risen in the polls as voters in the 81th District have gotten to know him and to evaluate him in comparison to Sandack, including through communications in district (mail, phones, TV, online) produced by Liberty Principles PAC.

The survey was commissioned by Liberty Principles PAC and conducted by the Florida-based polling firm of Fabrizio Lee (www.fabriziolee.com).

Sandack-Matune survey
DATE: March 11-12
Sample: 300 Likely GOP primary voters
Margin of Error: +/- 5.7%

    Matune 37
    Sandack 31

When I first surveyed this race on January 21-22, Sandack led 32-16. When I next surveyed the race on March 2-3, Sandack led 31-22. Now Matune has opened up a lead outside the margin of error.

- Dan Proft, Chairman, Liberty Principles PAC

NOTES:
Matune’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (35-19) whereas Sandack’s is 1:1 (34-33)
Matune wins among those who have heard of both (78% of sample) by 11. Matune leads with those who have an opinion of both (50% of sample) by 23.
Matune leads with conservatives by 21

- Posted by Rich Miller        

29 Comments
  1. - Big Muddy - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    Thanks Rich!


  2. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    The first liar never has a chance, but sometimes it is the lie that folks remembered best.


  3. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  4. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    That’s weird. I meant to say:

    If accurate, Sandack was probably doomed from the start. To incumbents the starting number is more important than the margin and a starting position of


  5. - Will Caskey - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    LESS THAN 35. Ugh. Sorry I fail at html. Less than 35 is bad.


  6. - A proud, numerically challenged people... - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    …in the 81th District.


  7. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    It’s Proft. It’s a 300 sample size. I’m highly dubious of this “poll.”


  8. - dave - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Is he going to share the actual poll questions and cross tabs?


  9. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Let’s see.

    (1)A margin of error of 5.7% means that Matune may be 5.7% too high or Sandack is 5.7% too far down. A spread of 11.4% - so it is anyone’s race. That is what you get with the sample size.
    (2) The results heading says “Breen Pihos” - does that lend a certain dubiousness to the results?
    (3) A recent trip through Downers Grove….lots of Sandack signs. Matune signs, maybe they fell down in the snow, escaped through a window or something?


  10. - Northern Will - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Hey Dan why don’t you show the polling questions and cross tabs?


  11. - Just sayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    How does a sex offender have a 2-1 fav/unfav? If that’s true of Republican Primary voters, this state deserves to stay blue and the GOP needs to be wiped out.

    Why hasn’t Dorgan, Cronin or someone demanded he get out?


  12. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    We’ll find out soon enough.


  13. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    The inherent difficulties in polling these small districts make me suspicious and the lack of specifics even more.

    That being said, these guys are a new firm and the only poll they’ve done that I could find was FL-13 where they were pretty close (43-43-7) whereas it seemed that a lot of other polls had the Dem candidate up. So, maybe they’re really good. Either way, I’m not sold.


  14. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Though, then again, if Sandack had an internal which showed him up, I’m sure he would have released it.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    ===these guys are a new firm ===

    These guys did poling for Bob Dole.


  16. - Wumpus - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    A sample size of callers from Proft’s WLS show. Every time I want to like him, he does something to make me question that effort.


  17. - Bored Chairman - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Reap the whirlwind, Mr. Proft.


  18. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    -Rich-

    Frabrizo polled for Dole. This is a new firm.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/


  19. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    No comment on poll, but the firm is well established and reputable - Tony Fabrizio is a well know, reputable GOP pollster.


  20. - Dave Fako - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    And, regarding the firm being new or old is not relevant, this is still a firm run by reputable and well established pollsters. My own firm went through a recent name change and structural changes, but the fact is we have been polling for nearly two decades.


  21. - Powell - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    it’s a reputable firm. one of the best. the only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample


  22. - justsayin' - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    All conjecture. Election day is the only proof of anything. Either way, Proft is a loser on this one. Even if he bests Sandack, this race makes him look bad and will continue to make him look bad through the general. If he loses, he loses too. A dumb move to put all your eggs in Matune’s messy basket.


  23. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    Fako is correct. And there are other numbers out there. Move along.


  24. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===The only question is whether the amount of calls going on in that district hurts the ability to get a representative sample ===

    I agree with that. We gave up trying on this and some other races days ago. Nobody’s answering.


  25. - anonymoose - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    I just wonder if polling firms are finding everyone. Not that I am complaining, my cell phone has received not a single political call (polling, robo call, nada). No home phone (for about two years now) - which used to be a bit active during election years. E-mails from the campaigns I have had contact with - and a few I have not contacted. I have not missed an election in over thirty years.


  26. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    The Matune fav/unfav makes me question this. But then, I question anything that comes from Profit.


  27. - Mokenavince - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    We will know in 5 days how accurate Proft’s poll is.I don’t have much faith in it.


  28. - Tom - Friday, Mar 14, 14 @ 5:16 pm:

    300 sample size in a legislative district primary of one party is plenty. It may be hard to get people on the phone, but it sounds like they eventually got 300 to take the poll. Ask Fako, 300 is a decent sample size.


  29. - Election Polls Results - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:07 pm:

    I read this post and take lot of information from this post.Thanks


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* ILGOP unleashes robocalls in wake of Senate tax hike vote
* It's just a bill
* Question of the day
* It's not 4.95 percent, it's 5.81 percent for the rest of this year
* Far more heat than light
* Caption contest!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** "Eyes are back on to the Senate"?
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Mendoza warns of "breaking point"
* Can an oligarch be a progressive?
* *** UPDATED x2 - Kennedy responds - Pawar responds *** Pritzker, Biss respond to Senate budget votes
* In her dreams
* Support High-Performing Charter Schools
* "I’m a big believer in win-win"
* Unkind headlines
* Modernize the Vital Records Act - Support HB 1785
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Our View: Did your loved one have life insuranc.....
* Illinois Bonds an Opportunity for `Bold' Invest.....
* Illinois Bonds an Opportunity for 'Bold' Invest.....
* The Latest: Cullerton says OK'd budget had GOP .....
* *** UPDATED x1 *** “Eyes are back on to the Sen.....
* Illinois budget spotlight shifts to Madigan - C.....
* Illinois Democrats Pass Budget Proposal in Sena.....


* Raimondo attends fundraiser at home of former Playboy CEO
* Mayor seeks to revoke liquor license of club after shooting
* Decatur dad charged in crash that killed 1-year-old daughter
* Special prosecutor to probe Macon County misconduct claims
* Airlines have rules about taking photos, video on planes
* Chicago officials seek requests to overhaul Midway parking
* Indianapolis high school football star dies from shooting
* $100M gift to create University of Chicago health institute
* EXCHANGE: Company looks to put Peoria on the textile map
* Man accused of stealing $10 million in mortgage scheme

* House Democrats propose college grant program
* Senate Dems approve $5.4B tax increase; budget fight continues
* Budget showdown: Senate Dems approve $5.4B tax increase
* Budget showdown: Senate Dems approve $5B tax increase
* Red-light cameras rake in millions for Chicago suburbs
* Budget showdown: House Dems call on Rauner to negotiate
* Budget showdown: House Democrats call on Rauner to negotiate
* Illinois Senate plans to vote on budget today
* Museums team up for reflection on former Gov. James Thompson
* Workers' comp changes could face Illinois Senate vote

* CME chief recovering from collapsed lung
* Fate of Obamacare repeal teeters on CBO score
* 'Jurassic World' opens at the Field Museum
* DeVry parent changes name


* City Council cracks down on valet parking — again
* Melania’s hand swat was so not news
* Oh brother, really big walleye, Heidecke Lake: Fishes of the Week
* Aldermen propose cellphone privacy awareness act
* NBA All-Star Game will return to Charlotte in 2019
* Chicago Police officer pinned by car, suspect shot in Austin
* $3 million program would help police, fire, paramedics buy city homes
* Aurora police officers fired upon, return fire and strike suspect
* CME’s Terry Duffy covering from a collapsed lung
* Dreamcar is new ride for members of No Doubt, AFI


* All aboard: Joliet Rocket steamin' into town
* Cheap out: Five fun things to do for free
* Quigley says Russia probe is 'in its infancy'
* Chicago cop shoots suspect after pinned against car during West Side traffic stop
* Father, brothers of Manchester bomber arrested: 'Aware of the details of the attack'
* Blackhawks unveil plans for next month's NHL draft in Chicago
* Family of Naperville teen who committed suicide sues school, police
* Police officers fired upon on East Side of Aurora
* Duchossois family donates $100 million to University of Chicago Medicine
* April home sales down in Chicago as limited choices discourage buying


» United CEO To Investors: We'll Be More Focused On Customers
» Red-Light Cameras Rake In Millions For Chicago Suburbs
» Judge Delays Decision On How Quickly State Should Pay Medicaid
» How Would Trump’s Budget Affect Illinois?
» Illinois Democrats Pass Budget Proposal in Senate
» Illinois Senate Approves Tax Hike, $37B Budget Plan
» Chicago Teachers Give Schools Chief No Confidence Vote
» Palatine Transgender Student To Graduate, But Locker Room Debate Continues
» Unusual Suspects: Who Supports Stricter Punishment For Illinois’ Repeat Gun Offenders
» Springfield Developer, Lobbyist Pitch Downtown Casino


* Sounding the Alarm: Unacceptable
* House Democrats propose college grant program
* Senate Dems approve $5.4B tax increase; budget fight continues
* E.J. Dionne: Can the pope save Trump?
* Byron York: At this rate, it won't matter if Trump colluded with Russia
* Guest Column: Innovation key to improved public works infrastructure
* Catherine Rampell: To see how Trumpcare would work, look to Iowa
* Michael Gerson: Trump's house of betrayal
* Budget showdown: Senate Dems approve $5.4B tax increase
* Budget showdown: Senate Dems approve $5B tax increase


* May 29 Bob Asmussen chat
* Six sent to hospital after crash in Fairview Heights
* DeStihl tasting room opens Saturday
* 2017 Global Brass and Copper scholarship recipients announced
* Figge Art Museum to offer free admission starting Saturday
* Reunion salutes Sacred Heart school one last time
* 26-year-old Swansea man faces criminal sexual assault charge
* Granite City man charged for armed robbery, discharge of firearm
* 05-24-17 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Probation for former sheriff's employee charged with stealing government funds


* Shots fired at Aurora cops; several people arrested
* Fifth 'Pirates of the Caribbean' takes fans on disappointing journey
* Aldermen to relax shooting range rules
* Harper College dedicates lab to former CEO of Bison Gear
* Teen shot to death by brother was Maine West student

* Local Republicans, Democrats praise appoin...
* Common Cause seeks action to get Trump's t...
* House GOP takes first steps to undo financ...
* Jim Walz Will Challenge Randy Hultgren for...
* PHOTOS: Protesters stage die-in at Randy H...
* Protesters continue die-in at US Rep. Rand...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren's office the scene ...
* Second Democrat announces bid to unseat Hu...
* Sweet: Hultgren, Roskam, Kinzinger avoid b...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...

* The GOP must fight against the Durbin amen......

* Inspector General Finds 'Cockroach Infesta......

* Through faith, reconnecting ‘two Chicagos’ divided by violence and inequality
* Confessions of a sniveling collectivist
* If your community news is slanted, Dan Proft may be to blame
* It must be campaign time in Illinois, ’cause someone ‘blew the cap’
* Kwame Raoul wants to stop the violence. Will his new bill accomplish this?
* Making sense of Putin's ‘ghastly trick’
* If only Chicago had been as cavalier about NATO gatherings as Trump is
* Potheads rejoice: Illinois lawmakers move to legalize recreational weed
* Trump’s proposed budget cuts would eviscerate aid to Chicago’s domestic violence victims, homeless services, lead poisoning screenings, and more
* Protest Paul Ryan by drinking beer


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Apple Releases New Firmware Update for AirPods
* Galaxy S9 development already on with codename “Star”
* Canada Android Pay availability reportedly begins from May 31
* Apple Shares First Trailer for 'Can't Stop Won't Stop' Sean Combs Documentary
* Chuwi SurBook, light on its feet, stomps all over Indiegogo goal
* Amazon adds shoppable stickers to its iOS app
* [Video] Unboxing the Samsung Galaxy S8

* Quintana looks to avoid another no-decision
* Renteria uses NL maneuvers to guide club
* Trio of HRs not enough as White Sox fall in desert
* Keeping it 100: Abreu hits milestone homer
* Covey exits start in 3rd with oblique soreness
* Trio of HRs not enough as White Sox fall in desert
* Quintana looks to avoid another no-decision


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller