Question of the day
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Doug Truax e-mail entitled “Greetings from Florida”…
No, I am not in Florida.
But you know who is? My Republican primary opponent: Jim Oberweis.
While Oberweis is vacationing in the sun; I am criscrossing Illinois talking with voters about the importance of this election and the issues at hand.
If elected I will always put Illinois families first. You won’t have to worry about whether your Senator is busy vacationing in a different state or even VOTING in a different state (you can’t even make this up - Jim Oberweis’ wife is registered to vote in Florida NOT Illinois).
The accompanying photo…
* The Question: Caption?
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Rauner’s circulators: $2 per signature
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Somebody I know who had his resume posted on Monster.com was sent an e-mail from a recruiter that linked to this page…
Part-time Campaign Field Associate
Client: Arno Political Consulting
City: Joliet
State: IL
Category: Professional
Job Type: Part time
Description
What do Part-time Campaign Field Associates do?
As a Part-time Campaign Field Associate (Petition Circulator) you will play in integral role in a historical movement dedicated to reforming the Illinois Constitution.
On Election Day, Part-time Campaign Field Associates will travel to their assigned precinct and gather signatures from registered voters.
You will get paid $2 per signature. If you collect 100 signatures and 70 of them are valid you will be paid $200. Historically, petition signatures on election day have high validity rates, so it shouldn’t be a challenge to meet this goal.
After the first hundred signatures, you will get paid $2 per signature with a validity rate of 60% or higher.
Arno has been hired by Bruce Rauner to run his term limit constitutional amendment petition drive.
I sure wish there’d been jobs like this back when I was in college. That’s not bad money.
* More…
Is this for a good cause?
Yes!
This petition helps put an amendment to the Illinois Constitution on the November 4, 2014 ballot which will make Illinois State government more responsive to citizens.
The amendment limits those elected to the state house or state senate to 8 years total. The 8 years can be served in the Illinois house or senate alone, or any combination of the two, but no longer than 8 years total.
The amendment also decreases substantially the number of state senators from 59 to 41 while increasing slightly the number of Illinois house members from 118 to 123.
The amendment makes it harder for politicians to override a governor’s veto by raising that threshold from a 3/5 majority to a 2/3 majority in both the Illinois House and Senate. This reform will ensure the best interests of all Illinoisans are protected and curtail the power of narrow, partisan or special interests.
Help make our democracy great!
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No surge detected yet
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As subscribers know, We Ask America has been tracking early and absentee voting in the Republican primary this season.
The following chart breaks down who has already voted early or sent in an absentee GOP ballot and compares that to all voting in the 2010 Republican primary.
A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted…
* So, as you can see, the percentage of historic Democrats participating in the GOP primary so far appears at first blush to be a bit higher than it was in the 2010 primary.
But, that’s not really what’s going on here.
* The percentage total of independents voting early in the Republican primary is down six points so far from the final 2010 total. Republican participation on the GOP primary is up about three points and Democratic participation in the Republican primary is also up about three from the final 2010 number.
In reality, while the final vote will skew slightly more Democratic (but balanced out by a slightly higher GOP base turnout), there is no surge detected here, just a six-point drop in interest by independents.
And as my pollster Chris Wieneke says, this could all correct itself by election day, when independents might come out in higher numbers.
Also, Democratic participation in the Republican primary could change on election day itself, when unions will be pushing their members to get out and vote. We’ll see, but a major crossover has never been attempted here.
Many of us know Democrats or independents taking Republican ballots for the first time, but, so far at least, it’s not showing up in the results.
* Perhaps more interesting, however, is that more Republican ballots have been cast so far, 49,010, than Democratic ballots, 45,905. Usually, Democratic primary turnout dwarfs Republican turnout. Four years ago, 915,726 votes were cast in the Democratic gubernatorial primary while 767,485 were cast in the GOP primary.
That’s likely a function of the cash spent on the GOP side and the lack of any cash spent on the D side. The most impact will be down-ballot. Who’s turning out in competitive House primaries, for instance?
* Related…
* Shearer: ‘We are not pulling back’ on pro-Dillard ads: While public sector unions that had been funding Shearer’s group are now pulling back, trade unions and other money is here for now. Last week’s money will go toward buying ads through mid-week and the Teamsters will give another day or two and then make a decision on a day by day basis how much money will go his way, he said.
* Public Union Urges Crossover Vote for Dillard
* AFL-CIO mailing goes after “Billionaire insider Bruce Rauner”
* Election messages were more mixed than assorted nuts in a can of Planters.
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Remap reform group raising big bucks
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Reboot writes about major fundraising by the Yes for Independent Maps group…
Topping the list is former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who donated $100,000 to the cause of taking from Illinois party leaders the privilege of drawing friendly districts for their members every 10 years.
The latest report, filed Tuesday, logs $638,500 for the week of March 4-11. It brings the total raised by Yes for Independent Maps to $1.2 million since Jan. 1.
Perhaps most remarkable about the reports, in addition to the amounts, is the diversity of donors on the list. It’s a mix of well known political names from both parties and numerous business leaders of various political persuasions.
There are many other prominent people who have signed on to the effort to take politics out of the legislative map-drawing process but whose names have not shown up in donation reports. That list includes Playboy CEO Christie Hefner and former Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. […]
Other prominent donors include real estate mogul Sam Zell, Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and J.B. Pritzker ($50,000 each); former Lt. Gov. Corrine Wood and Tom Pritzker ($25,000 each), and best-selling author Scott Turow ($1,000). Earlier reports had included a $25,000 donation from former U.S. Senate candidate Blair Hull and CEO and horse racing executive Craig Duchossois.
* The group also has a new Internet video that’s kinda fun to watch…
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Matune attempts another self defense
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican House candidate Keith Matune, who’s running against Rep. Ron Sandack in the primary and is backed by Dan Proft, wrote an op-ed for the Illinois Review. His lede…
Like a lot of people I did some stupid things when I was in college and I’m truly sorry for the missteps I took.
OK, let’s stop right there.
Other than maybe anti-war, civil rights or even anti-abortion protesters, how many people do you know who’ve been arrested three times?
* He continues…
During this campaign those regrettable moments have become public. Like everyone, I have matured and have spent the last 20 years becoming a husband, father of four, Illinois Teacher of the Year, IHSA Coach of the Year, and School Board Member.
Trouble is, he told his school that he hadn’t been arrested on his job app.
Oops.
And that “Illinois Teacher of the Year” award actually came from the Constitutional Rights Foundation of Chicago, which does have a heavy-hitter board of directors.
* Matune was responding to a devastating IR column by Chris Robling…
He told Waubonsie, when applying to teach Illinois kids, he had never been arrested.
He lied on his other school applications. And on the Daily Herald candidate questionnaire. When the Daily Herald got the facts, he claimed his priors were expunged, even though — obviously — they are not. That’s another whopper.
He issued a press release in January that invoked the Illinois State Police to claim he had never been arrested. As a guy who once wore handcuffs in court, he knew that was false.
He claims gymnastics “Consensus All American” status. But he forgot to tell Purdue about his distinction. Its official website does not list him –- or any gymnast of his era — as “All American,” since Purdue did not field a Division 1 gymnastics team then.
The General Assembly, to which he thinks he should be elected, says ‘public indecency’ is a sex crime. Illinois public school teacher applicants must disclose all such findings. Perhaps most deeply troubling of all — Matune’s applications show that when he asked for exposure to our kids, he refused to tell the truth.
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* The Sun-Times goes into great detail about House Democratic mailers which attack Will Guzzardi, who’s running against Rep. Toni Berrios. For example…
This week, voters in the district received the latest in a series of ads alleging that Guzzardi favors going easy on sex offenders.
The new mailer adds an odd racial twist to this line of attack. It features a photo of a young white woman with manly hands clasping her bare shoulders. You can’t see the face of the person whose hands they are, but they’re obviously not the hands of a white person.
* Another example…
Gov. Pat Quinn professes neutrality, but a high-ranking Quinn appointee, former 1st Ward Ald. Manny Flores, appears in Toni Berrios campaign literature, urging people to “join me in voting” for her.
It would be interesting to ask Flores how he plans to vote for Toni Berrios since he moved from the Northwest Side, to the northwest suburbs, after quitting the City Council and joining the Quinn administration. Flores has been registered to vote in Park Ridge, miles from the 39th Illinois House District, since 2012.
* But they totally accept Guzzardi’s explanation about one of those attacks without question…
The attacks are based on an article that Guzzardi wrote for his college newspaper in 2006. He says the comment was taken out of context, doesn’t reflect his campaign’s stance and is an attempt by the incumbent to play off voter fears.
* Guzzardi links to the column on his own website…
In short, in this digital age of infinite proliferation of data, expungement is a fantasy. The blank slate it once offered to those convicted of minor offenses is more like the old whiteboard on my dorm room door: though you might try to wipe it clean, there will always be some traces of what used to be written there.
If there were ever an issue for which civil rights groups on campus should get up in arms, this is it. Just like denying ex-convicts voting rights or sex offender tracking and registration, this is an instance of societal double jeopardy. These offenders have made an agreement with the justice system about the recompense they owe society for their transgression; having paid it, they should be able to return to society as members in good standing. Instead, they are dogged by their conviction for the rest of their lives.
Emphasis added to show this wasn’t “taken out of context.” He wrote what he wrote.
* To be clear, Guzzardi has been running away as fast as he can from that column. And it was, after all, a college newspaper column for crying out loud. The Fraternal Order of Police, Chicago Lodge #7 has endorsed him, which pretty much blows that “soft on predators” attack out of the water.
But the sex offender stuff was clearly not taken out of context.
* However, the Sun-Times does have a valid point about the mailer adding an “odd racial twist.” Here it is…
Ugly.
Just ugly.
*** UPDATE *** From a commenter…
So Mark Kirk is somehow not trying to appeal to the worst, most racist elements of human nature when he used the exact same photo, right?
The commenter is correct. Go have a look.
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“A wolf in sheep’s clothing”
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kirk Dillard is running a new 60-second radio ad that throws a whole lot at the wall. This was recorded off the radio via a cell phone, so it’s not the greatest audio. Listen…
* Partial script…
Male: The GOP primary for governor is coming up. Who are you voting for?
Female: Well, Rauner’s been on TV a lot.
Male: Yeah, but did you know Rauner’s pro-choice?
Female: Wait. Rauner’s pro choice?
Male: Yep. And Rauner doesn’t oppose same sex marriage.
Female: Oh, Rauner’s not who he said he is.
Male: Did you know Rauner voted Democrat in 2006?
Female: No Way!
Male: Yep. And Rauner gave millions to Democrats, like Dick Durbin and Nancy Pelosi.
Female: How can he say he’s a Republican?
Male: He even vacations with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Female: No way Rauner’s Republican.
Male: Wait, there’s more…
It goes on for another 30 seconds and includes the Stu Levine and Peyton Prep clouting stuff.
“Rauner’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t he?” the female asks near the end.
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A Bill Brady reality check
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kurk Erickson…
Despite polls showing super-wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner leading the Republican race for governor with a week to go, state Sen. Bill Brady said he’s confident voters will look to him on Election Day.
Calling himself the only “reliable Republican” in the four-way race, the Bloomington businessman said Rauner and state Sen. Kirk Dillard have ties to Democrats that will turn GOP voters toward him. […]
Brady also said the $14 million raised by Rauner won’t give an automatic win to the political newcomer from Winnetka, who has ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
“Money doesn’t buy elections,” Brady said. “Our voters are going to turn out.”
* OK, let’s look at a little history.
In the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, Bill Brady finished third with 18.4 percent.
In the 2010 primary, Brady won with 20.26 percent.
He’s currently polling at 19 percent.
Notice a pattern?
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* From a press release…
Radogno, Durkin encourage Attorney General to aggressively pursue decision on pension reform
Springfield, Ill. – Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) and House Republican Leader Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) on pension reform:
“We have shared a letter with the Attorney General expressing interest in an aggressive pursuit of a prompt decision on the pension reform legislation.
“We believe some legal procedures are available to the Attorney General to expedite the case and have respectfully encouraged her to use those procedures.
“Substantial financial consequences to the State, its retirement systems and current retired employees are at the heart of the pension reform litigation. We believe if the litigation is expedited and the State prevails, the fiscal stability of both the State and its retirement systems will substantially improve.
“All interested parties will benefit from a quick, but fair, final judicial decision. We urge the Attorney General to use the available avenues to accomplish that goal as we stand alongside her in this matter.”
* So, I asked, what are those legal procedures? The reply…
The letter references the most relevant actions, namely consolidation of various suits and a Supreme Court Rule 302 motion.
The AG has worked to consolidate the latest filing late last week in Champaign County from State University Annuitants. Consolidation helps the court decide on a similar question of fact and will assist in corralling all interested parties onto one court schedule.
The Rule 302 motion is applicable after a Circuit Court ruling. If successful, it would bypass the time and litigation with an appeal proceeding at the Appellate court and be heard directly at the Supreme Court from the circuit court decision.
The AG can also work to encourage the court to not allow unreasonable delays in the court proceedings in general.
So, AG Madigan has already done one of the things and can’t do the other until we get a circuit court ruling, but there is that last option, which I’m not sure applies yet because the case hasn’t even begun.
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Poll: Rauner back on the upswing
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The latest We Ask America tracker with the previous results in parentheses…
Bill Brady 19 (12)
Kirk Dillard 26 (14.5)
Bruce Rauner 46.5 (40)
Dan Rutherford 9 (8)
Undecided - (26)
The firm did not give the 1,235 likely GOP voters an “undecided” option this time around. The poll was taken yesterday and had a margin of error of ± 2.9 percent.
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