A Bill Brady reality check
Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kurk Erickson…
Despite polls showing super-wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner leading the Republican race for governor with a week to go, state Sen. Bill Brady said he’s confident voters will look to him on Election Day.
Calling himself the only “reliable Republican” in the four-way race, the Bloomington businessman said Rauner and state Sen. Kirk Dillard have ties to Democrats that will turn GOP voters toward him. […]
Brady also said the $14 million raised by Rauner won’t give an automatic win to the political newcomer from Winnetka, who has ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
“Money doesn’t buy elections,” Brady said. “Our voters are going to turn out.”
* OK, let’s look at a little history.
In the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary, Bill Brady finished third with 18.4 percent.
In the 2010 primary, Brady won with 20.26 percent.
He’s currently polling at 19 percent.
Notice a pattern?
- Nathan Walder - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:24 am:
That he’s climbing ?
- phocion - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:25 am:
“Notice a pattern?”
Yep.
- William j Kelly - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:27 am:
If by reliable he means vote splitter.
- Big Joe - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:31 am:
The pattern is that he is delusional.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:32 am:
The pattern is that right now he is where he’s always been in three successive campaigns. 18-20 percent.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:33 am:
He’s asymptotically approaching 19.2%?
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:34 am:
a) Consistent loyal support.
OR
b) Stuck in the mud.
Seriously, the consistent pattern would seem to mean he needs multiple candidates splitting the vote, then he can sneak in for a win. Not the right field this time. Maybe he should hope for a crowded Republican US Senate field next time?
- Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:37 am:
Rich did you see the ad the American retired association for elderly people released today
- In the Middle - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:37 am:
It’s 4-way race; the winner has to break at least 25%. I can only see Dillard getting above that, and I just don’t see that being enough to win.
If Rauner even gets 1/3 of the vote, it’ll be the most united the R’s have been in a primary in ages.
- DuPage Dave - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:
I kinda feel sorry for Brady. He comes across as a decent guy and hardworking schlub who can’t catch a break. But he can’t win an election with fewer than six contestants, so 20 percent just won’t cut it.
The economy is picking up bit by bit so let’s hope the Brady construction business starts growing again and that Bill can devote his attention to those endeavors. Because he won’t ever be governor.
- MrJM - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:
For those who are “Visual Learners”: http://www.diychart.com/Image/4/69b53e19-ed8f-46ed-9140-f40ab24d0f37.png
– MrJM
- Big Muddy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:43 am:
Yep. A pattern of him having a 80% chance that he’s not elected. And that is 80% too low.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:45 am:
Nathan, yes, and so did less than 300 YouTube viewers. It’s a web video.
- langhorne - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:46 am:
this poll proves brady is reliable. he reliably stays stuck–same message, same lack of funding, same core of voters, same result. you cant keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result.
the conclusion i sadly draw from the poll is that, when pushed, the undecideds break heavily for rauner, who only had to get about a third of undecideds to block dillard. death knell for dillard.
now all that matters is turnout. who actually makes it to the polls. or a blistering, effective new anti rauner ad using the $400k afscme money. also gotv, if dillards union buddies can deliver. and beans. magic beans. lots of em.
rutherford shoulda got out weeks ago. doing so doesnt have any reflection on the merits of his lawsuit. its just plain reality.
you can fool some of the people…
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:47 am:
Before the Rauner juggernaut, a base of 20% would have put you in reasonable striking distance in a four-way race if you could raise any money.
But Brady couldn’t raise a dime. And Rauner is a fundraising machine, not just a self-funder. He starved the other campaigns of cash until the unions got in for Dillard, too little, too late.
- Westward - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:49 am:
Nathan! It’s over.
It’s Bill Brady / D Lard / Danny R’s smug attitude that is really repulsing me. Guys. Your plan failed. Miserably. Now your plan, all of you, is to stay in the race to TRY and finish second. For what purpose?? Also, no way would you want to step out and have your opponent (non-BR) win. Oh no. Can’t have someone saying they finished ahead of you if you have any say about it. Ha. For second place. Wowsers. Man, these are the guys who contributed to doing nothing but blowing hot air about all the stuff they were gonna do.
- Bobby Hill - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:50 am:
He’s not my guy but he almost won the general election last time in a blue leaning state dragging Jason Plumber along with him. If Rauner doesn’t win, my money would be on him.
- Mokenavince - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:51 am:
He’s below the Mendoza line , no chance.
- Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:53 am:
Rich miller , Bill still has a chance don’t count him out yet . Remember in 2010 . He has the backing of the Will County GOP as well sir . That’s huge
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:55 am:
===Remember in 2010 ===
Yeah, he got 20 percent of the vote, which was pretty much what he got four years earlier and what he’s polling at now.
He’s got a ceiling.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:55 am:
“Well, I for one see the 18-20% as a huge number.
Signed,
Dan Rutherford
@FakeRutherfordDan”
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:56 am:
At this point, the spoiler rumors for Brady are pretty strong. Many people throughout the state have called for him to drop out of the race. If he stays in, he is in this for Rauner.
- Westward - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:04 am:
Thank YOU, anon! Thank you.
- He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:21 am:
If Brady or Rutherford really gave a hoot about the Republican party they would have dropped out and put their support to Dillard. It is almost as if Rauner is paying them to stay in the race. It is unfortunate that there is NO GOP STATE LEADERSHIP, because if there was, they would have negotiated some sort of deal to get them to drop out. Note to Brady, your done, do not run again.
- Wally - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:30 am:
Hey Rich, how about a prediction post with projected vote percentages?
- Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 10:36 am:
Or how about a online poll on here that ask who we are going to vote for in the republican primary for governor . Would be interesting to see the results . Please do Rich
- A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:00 am:
If a sappling falls in the forest and noone is there to hear it…does it… Nevermind.
- Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:17 am:
He makes Ryan Look… Who say’s leadership isn’t behind Rauner? By your logic you assume they WANT one of the other 3… Maybe they are tired of losing…?
- Darienite - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:45 am:
At least Brady’s supporters aren’t dying off…yet.
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 11:58 am:
If Brady and Rutherford drop out and endorse Dillard would their combined totals would put him over the top at this point? Are there still too many undecided voters?
- Anon - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:28 pm:
Brady had one shot at governor and blew it in a huge GOP wave election vs. a weak Democrat. Stick a fork in his career, along with Rutherford’s.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:30 pm:
I backed Brady in 06 and 10. He and Rutherford have two choices. 1. Drop out and endorse Dilllard. 2. Stay in which proves their egos trump their desire fixing the state.
It is not about me liking Dillard. I don’t. It is a numerical reality of the situation. You have no chance in a 4 way race. Either be a spoiler that helps Rauner, or do the right thing.
- Upon Further Review - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:38 pm:
A definite pattern. Brady does not stand a chance in a field with less than six candidates to slice up the vote.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
You guys don’t get it. Rauner is winning because voters are tired of what his opposition represents. Brady and Rutherford could drop out and endorse Dillard, but to the majority of GOP primary voters it wouldn’t matter. They are tired of nominating losers.
They want the new guy.
- the Patriot - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
The trend is that about 65% want one of the traditional guys, 35% want a new one. On most issues, Brady, Rutherford, and Dillard are interchangeable as far as the base is concerned. IF two of them drop, most of those voters do not go to Rauner.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:27 pm:
Nathan, we’ve done that several times already.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:34 pm:
Patriot, that must be that “new” math the youngsters are talking about these days.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:42 pm:
And…Let’s see. Bill Brady, always been criticized by the unions and never helped. Rutherford; was the heir apparent to the union wad. He messed up badly. They abandoned him in a heartbeat. Dillard, now the union darling and the drain they’ve flushed their money down with nearly no effect. I want to get this straight. Brady and Rutherford are being “selfish” and they need to stand aside so your new best friend Dillard “the unselfish one” run alone. Because the unions have been so good to the others, they should step aside and not be selfish, so that the truly most unselfish and their bad investment candidate can add a couple of points and still lose miserably. Because ALL of their supporters will jump on the Dillard bandwagon and every undecided will break his way too. And legions of Democrats will switch over to vote in the Republican primary. Got it. The switcheroos are driven by affection for a candidate, not any issue that offends one category of people; i.e. John Kennedy and Barack Obama. Might want to consider that it was Republicans doing the switching in those very rare cases. I remember lots of Reagan Democrats, but not in a primary.
- Reformed Public Servant - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:07 pm:
Dillard Democrats?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:45 pm:
– but to the majority of GOP primary voters it wouldn’t matter. They are tired of nominating losers.
They want the new guy.–
Tribune Poll, three days ago:
Oberweis–52%
Truax — 18%
Are you sure money is not a factor in these races?
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:53 pm:
Governor race, not US Senate.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:04 pm:
–Governor race, not US Senate.–
Same voters, correct?
According to the polls, more of them want a three-time statewide primary loser for Senate than they do the “new guy” and not the “old losers” for governor.
Why’s that? You speak for the majority of GOP voters (actually, A Guy already has that job, but he appears to be willing to share when he agrees with you).
What do Oberweis and Rauner have in common except for a lot more money than their opponents?
- dupage dan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:36 pm:
word, I think Oberweis may be seen as the outsider even now. I’m not saying he is, just that he may be perceived as such. Besides, he has more name recognition than Truax. I just don’t think you can compare these 2 contests even with the same voters. Voters are the craziest animals. Kinda like juries - hard to predict.
- Nathan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 5:05 pm:
How about Bill Brady for US Senate in 2016 . Let’s not forget Rich miller is a democrat voting for Kirk Dillard
- ironman - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 5:07 pm:
Brady, needs to let his EGO go. He will get 18.6 percent. The dems will cross over and Dillard wins. Rutherford needs to bow out gracefully and quit degrading himself. Regardless if charges are true or not.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 6:45 pm:
- Nathan -,
We are all guests here. Drive-by remarks are not a good way to be seen.
This is one of a few places where a candidate can get huge praise in one Post, and taken to the woodshed in the very next Post…
…Republicans and Democrats alike.
Ask around.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 9:31 pm:
wordy -
last week we went over all that when the Tribune endorsed Rauner and Rich pointed out how they have endorsed the self funders since 2002. All the self-funders spent more than the rest - AND THEY LOST.
So - what you forgot?
You need to sandbag that old argument because what matters here is the message and the opponents, not the money.
It was just last week we discussed this.
So while you can point out Oberweis’ lead over Truax to support your argument - I can, along with Rich and everyone else who remembers this blog from way back, uh, last week, can give you the 2002 race, the 2006 race and the 2010 race as examples when the biggest spender did not win.