Poll: Cross leads Frerichs 42-35
Wednesday, Jun 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Another We Ask America poll…
The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.07 percentage points, [surveyed] 1,021 likely voters […]
“Both the Comptroller’s and Treasurer’s offices don’t garner much earned media, and neither of the candidates for treasurer are that well known by the electorate, although Cross certainly has held a position that gives him wider state coverage,” says We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “That helps to explain his stronger-than-expected support among Democrats. Bottom line: We think it will be Labor Day or later until a clear picture will emerge in this race.” […]
Cross had support from 23 percent of Democrats while only 13 percent of Republicans crossed party lines for Frerichs.
Despite being from downstate Champaign, Frerichs trailed far west-suburban Cross among downstate respondents 46-32. But, should the pattern of this poll continue, Frerichs could offset any downstate losses with his strong showing in Chicago, where he led Cross 50-24.
Cross spent some bucks to win his contested GOP primary, so that’s playing into this as well as the likely Republican-friendly cycle itself. Cross leads among independents 42-24.
Cross also leads among women 39-35.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:16 am:
@FakeMikeFrerichs - what part of my record do I need to flip, ignore, or forget about to turn this around? #AmateurHour
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:23 am:
@FakeMikeFrerichs - we need more height puns. I have the fever, and the only cure is more height puns #SNL
To the Post,
Keep in mind, and I think this is huge;
Topinka running her campaign against Sheila will help Cross in the down ballot. Lisa and Jesse, flip to vote for Topinka…stay GOP, vote Cross.
Simon has been awful out there, and her getting beat, (read; getting beat, not losing) on Union endorsements and other base groups Sheila thought she had will help the next race, just by staying in the GOP column for one more race.
Cross-Frerichs; This could be the closest race of all the Statewides.
- walker - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:42 am:
Cross has a big-time name recognition advantage. Only big money, well-spent in media, will get Frerichs in this thing.
- Neiled It - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:57 am:
No surprise here, except probably to team Frerichs. Everytime that guy opens his mouth he says something regrettable. It really is something to watch when a candidate continues to nail their own coffin. And while it will probably be the closest statewide I would bet Cross at at least 55% right now.
- John Boch - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:08 am:
I had always thought Frerichs did a pretty decent job representing his district in Champaign and Vermilion Counties.
He kind of had a reputation as being “flexible” to the wishes of the community (some might call it sticking his finger into the wind). He would always use some of those weasel-like words to hedge his statement, but in the end, he voted with common sense most of the time (with the exception of the big income tax hike).
Not sure he’s ready for statewide office.
For some I’m sure he’s not liberal enough. For others he’s a downstater, which translates to “not one of us” to too many Chicagoans.
John
- Ty Webb - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:10 pm:
Cross winning independents nearly 2-1…bad news for Tax Hike Mike..
- champaigndweller - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:22 pm:
Frerichs has been my rep–he’s a nice guy, but my impression is that he’s beholden to Madigan and often has to support issues that aren’t in step with those in his district.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:25 pm:
champaigndweller, he’s a Senator, so he’s not even in MJM’s chamber.
Sheesh.
- Springfield Chick - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:01 pm:
Didn’t necessarily see it coming, but Frerichs has seemed a little out of his league here. The Cross crew is running a far superior campaign at this point. Tall Mike better not be taking downstate for granted, Cross seems to be playing well all over.
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:20 pm:
Too many undecideds at this point. And I’m sorry We Ask America has made adjustments, but after 2012 and the 2014 gubernatorial primary I still have my doubts about the accuracy of this poll, or any poll for that matter especially with Eric Cantor losing.
With that being said, Rich has mentioned this before previously too. It would be nice to know Frerichs’ strategy in these upcoming 4.5 months. He has a huge cash advantage, but what is his messaging? And he still doesn’t seemed to have recovered from that botched announcement tour. I agree with OW this will probably be the closest down-ballot race.
- The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:35 pm:
The poll is kind of difficult to digest because I would estimate that, unlike in the other constitutional office races, 99 percent of the electorate has never heard of either of these guys.
- Dave Fako - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:46 pm:
A poll for a race like this at this point in time is not a test of what voters feel about the candidates, their positions, values, etc. and in this case a voting decision may never get based on any of that.
This poll and other surveys on this race this early with two candidates who likely have marginal name ID as WAA alluded to is essentially a test of: 1) what little name ID each candidate has with the better known candidate likely getting more support; 2) Party ID - as in less partisan voters are gravitating to the Party Label they may generally prefer this time around; 3) The overall political environment in relation to the voters’ party ID preferences.
This can and will change a lot between now and November based on the environment and what these candidates do and don’t do, but in the end it will never amount to a significantly substantive decision since voters spend about 0.1 seconds per week thinking about State Treasurer.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:39 pm:
==voters spend about 0.1 seconds per week thinking about State Treasurer.==
Who knew so many people were thinking about the treasurer’s office so much?
- Barney - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 7:03 pm:
I agree with fako but the point that has to be very troubling for Frerichs right now is how independents are breaking across the board for GOP. If Frerichs, Quinn or Simon lose indies at the rate they are it will be tough if not impossible for them to win.
- railrat - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 7:12 pm:
golf “handicap” vs. Chinese custom made suits ….me thinks in Ill. golf wins !!
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:08 pm:
What Fako said, as amended by Precinct Captain.
99.9% of voters will spend exactly zero time thinking about this race between now and October.
@Barney:
I have not seen any internal data, but Fako is right, the weather will change.
I suspect what is largely driving Independents is pure anti-incumbency, and that creates opportunities for Frerichs, and problems for Cross.
Tom cross got us into this mess, and although I like Cross personally, Frerichs is gonna remind folks of that. There is a lot of pension bills, a lot of borrowing that happened with cross as a Yes.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on Frerichs.
- Alyssa Walters - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 10:00 am:
Looks good for Cross! Maybe mike should rethink those tax hikes!
- Phylicia R - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 10:05 am:
I fully consider myself a democrat, however I am completely with Tom on his run for treasurer. I believe mike has done a good job in the senate, however Tom has an extensive amount of knowledge on how to lead from all the time he has spent in the house. Down the road Mike would make a good candidate, but for now I believe we should stick with someone who is prepared to balance the budget and keep taxes low.
- Anal Avenger 6969 - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:05 pm:
Honestly I think that MF is a great candidate however hhis inexqerience is not only obvious but is also painful to watch, I think if we give him a couple more years then he’d be excellent but now I think TC’s experience really give him the upper hand.