Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Quinn and congressional Democrats
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn and congressional Democrats

Thursday, Jul 10, 2014

* The Hill looks at Illinois congressional contests

At least four Illinois races this cycle are competitive, and Republicans are optimistic they can pick up at least one to two seats, especially with a robust GOP turnout operation backed by the wealthy Rauner.

One-term former GOP Reps. Bob Dold and Bobby Schilling are both in close rematches against Democratic Reps. Brad Schneider and Cheri Bustos, respectively. Republicans also hope to knock off freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D) after unsuccessfully targeting the open downstate district in 2012, contending GOP state Rep. Mike Bost’s campaign is on the upswing.

* One reason why the national GOPs are optimistic is the unpopularity of Gov. Pat Quinn

The GOP-aligned American Action Network released an automated poll last week that showed Dold up 42 percent to 39 percent in the rematch [with Schneider]. But in the governor’s race, in a district Obama won by 17 points, Rauner was leading Quinn 49 percent to 37 percent. Republicans expect similar, or even worse numbers, in from their governor in other districts in the state. […]

“We can tie Quinn to every single congressional race,” said one national GOP strategist

That poll and the expectation of tying candidates to Quinn doesn’t surprise me at all. I’m not so sure that works well in Illinois, though. Republicans tried hard to tie Democrats to Rod Blagojevich without much success.

* More from the poll

President Barack Obama has a 44 percent job approval rating in the 10th district with 46 percent saying they disapprove and 10 percent not sure. […]

Schneider is vulnerable because in his second year as a House member, a large number of poll respondents—44 percent—have no opinion of how he is handling his job, with 28 percent approving and 28 percent disapproving. […]

* The candidate calls himself a moderate but then campaigns with Nancy Pelosi and the chair of the Democratic National Committee.

    More likely 32 percent

    Less likely 45 percent

    Not sure 23 percent

* The candidate claims to be independent but votes with party leadership 90 percent of the time.

    More likely 15 percent

    Less likely 43 percent

    Not sure 41 percent.

That district could easily wind up bouncing back and forth between the two parties for the rest of the remap cycle.

* Back to The Hill

Democrats’ one saving grace could be Sen. Dick Durbin (D). The Senate majority whip is up for reelection but faces only nominal GOP opposition for a fourth term. As a downstate native who hails from Springfield, he’s always had a good image around the state and is a valuable elder statesman and party fundraiser.

I just don’t think as of yet that Durbin’s coattails will be long enough.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

27 Comments
  1. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    I mentioned this before, but I love the irony of Quinn pressing Rauner on his tax returns when Schneider (10th Congressional District) refused to produce his. Schneider has been nearly invisible in the last two years with the exception of immigration reform - not an issue I’m personally in favor (at least the Gang of Eight bill) but one that might play well in pockets like Waukegan if they can get the vote out. I agree that tying Schneider to Quinn seems like a dubious strategy - I think a lot of voters who might go for Rauner would almost feel a push to split their ticket.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:11 am:

    All of this bodes very well for GOP wins, but I need more info to rule Enyart, today, is in trouble. Enyart might be a target , but not feeling that Enyart is in trouble.

    When things ramp up, it could change for me.


  3. - The Prince - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    I haven’t really seen a whole lot of coattails in Illinois. Too many ticket-splitters and vote skippers in some races.


  4. - train111 - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    I think that Durbin’s coattails will be zero.
    I believe Obie will do better than people give him credit for.
    That’s bad for Enyart in a district that has been shifting towards the GOP over the last 20 years.


  5. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:16 am:

    The elections while Blagojevich allowed Illinois to collapse didn’t seem to create any real electoral advantages for the GOP. I believe Illinois right now has become such a rock solid one-party state, it will take more than an unpopular Democratic state leader to move it from supporting a Democratic state to a bipartisan one.

    The congressional maps have hardened the partisanship within Illinois as well. Thanks to modern technologies, candidates choose who votes for them more effectively in many cases, than in the pre-tech days when voters chose between candidates. When we do see a surprising election result, it has been often during a primary. This is because the partisanship during the general election has been so minutely predetermined.

    The GOP has an edge in 2014 for many reasons, yet those edges have to overcome the severely partisan congressional boundaries which favor the party which drew up those boundaries. Additionally, incumbents have over a 90% reelection rate and a huge fiscal advantage. The average incumbent collects a half million dollars over their challengers, thanks to lobbyists who need to work with incumbents in order to do state business.

    George Ryan was the caboose regarding the IL GOP gubernatorial era from 1974-2002. The IL GOP freshness date expired by the time Edgar decided to step down allowing old man Ryan to finally get his chance. Illinois was ready for a political change when Blagojevich won. So the Democrats in the governor’s office is still seen as the change from the long running GOP era. So when Blagojevich went to jail, voters were still not ready for another long GOP gubernatorial run, giving Quinn an edge.

    Now that Quinn has been in, voters seem ready to consider a GOP governor again. But that doesn’t change their comfort with the Democratic incumbents safely ensconced within their Democratic gerrymandered districts.

    If Quinn goes down as it looks like he will, I don’t believe his losing campaign will drag down a Democratic US House incumbent too. The GOP candidates will need to earn their own ticket to DC, even in this off-year election.


  6. - walker - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Kirk could directly help Dold more than Durbin’s coattails will help Schneider, if he can get after it. Kirk was unbeatable in that district.

    Four years ago, the key messages that seemed to drive GOP turnout were “anti-Obamacare” and “the economy is in the toilet.” Both of those remain concerns, but aren’t as powerful drivers as they were then. Rauner will pull some extra folks out on the North shore, and NW suburbs. who will vote for Dold.

    And in general, incumbents won’t do well.

    Bost would be a trip in the Big House in DC.


  7. - Bill White - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Interesting that Foster-Senger isn’t on that list


  8. - Downstate MM - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:21 am:

    Durbin’s number in Southern Illinois are break even at best, and that is with the metro-east.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    ===Interesting that Foster-Senger isn’t on that list===

    I don’t see that race in play. There is a great deal of noise and bluster, but Foster is in the driver’s seat, it his to lose.


  10. - Mittuns - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I think it is more likely Callis wins than any of those seats going GOP.


  11. - Norseman - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Way to make an impression Oberweis.


  12. - Federalist - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:42 am:

    Still believe Quinn will win.

    It will take a more attractive personality than Rauner has to win in this Blue state.

    Great overview Vanillaman!


  13. - steve schnorf - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Generally, the national GOP has virtually zero understanding of Illinois politics. Look around. When the landslide rolls across the rest of the country, it doesn’t even raise much dust here in Illinois. They don’t get it, and given the results of the past few cycles, they don’t even know they don’t get it.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    ===They (the national GOP) don’t get it, and given the results of the past few cycles, they don’t even know they don’t get it.===

    Best insight of the failures of the ILGOP and the national GOP here in IL and why both fail.

    Good stuff there.


  15. - Carolyn P - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    [This commenter has been banned for life.]


  16. - walker - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    Carolyn P: Harsh and unfair language about a personal religious choice. Doesn’t belong as part of a dialogue about political choices.


  17. - Louis G. Atsaves - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    Rauner threw Christ under the bus? I nominate that comment as the most insanely disgusting and crass political comment of the year!


  18. - a drop in - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 11:41 am:

    meh. 3% lead in a republican push poll doesn’t impress me.


  19. - The Captain - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 11:43 am:

    When the map was first drawn I thought each of the 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 17th would wind up in the hands of each party at some point during the 5 cycles under this map. The political popularity of Duckworth may be strong enough to prove me wrong in the 8th, but otherwise these seats should be competitive each cycle. This is why I find some of the Fair Map people hyperbolic, I’m not sure a computer could come up with a way to draw the map that would do much better than have 6 true tossup seats here.

    One interesting footnote about the 12th: there’s no Senate race in Missouri this cycle. In cycles where there’s a competitive race in Missouri (President, US Senate) the Dems in IL-12 often get the benefit of of the national efforts to turn out base voters in St. Louis with some of that media spilling over into the base voters in IL-12 but this cycle they’re on their own.


  20. - D.P.Gumby - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 11:59 am:

    Don’t think Schilling has the movement to re-gain. Foster seems to be more vulnerable.


  21. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Incumbents in Congress don’t deserve to be re-elected.

    But Republicans don’t deserve to be elected to Congress either.

    There’s a contest to determine who the voters despise more.

    That’s democracy in USA in 2014. Love it or leave it.

    Remember, voting for someone else is not an option.


  22. - A guy... - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 12:54 pm:

    Good comments here. What will really matter is how truly intolerant the voters are with the perception of continuing corruption from Governors. That will remain to be seen, but I’m picking up a vibe that folks are sick of being on the national news and late night shows for the infamy of corruption and violence. Their attention is piqued.

    While many of those Congressional seats look like tossups now, at least four of them used to be reasonably reliable GOP seats. Fair map; you decide.

    All of the highlighted Congress candidates have a good shot (including Senger) with lackluster campaigners on the Dem side. Foster’s a snore. Bustos runs afraid. Schnieder is aloof and Enyart is not multi-dimensional; only a little more exciting than Foster. All of those GOPers are pretty good to excellent campaigners. With Obama, Quinn, and the entire Congress a drag on them, they’ve got a lot to overcome. It will be interesting. Hard work and “enough” money will win 3 or 4 of these races. Rauner will be a plus in all of them.


  23. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Schilling hasn’t been raising the money you’d expect if he was really in the ballgame. Time’s getting short.


  24. - Just Observing - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 1:47 pm:

    === That district could easily wind up bouncing back and forth between the two parties for the rest of the remap cycle. ===

    I think whoever wins this time, holds the seat for a while.


  25. - Just Observing - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 1:49 pm:

    === I love the irony of Quinn pressing Rauner on his tax returns when Schneider (10th Congressional District) refused to produce his. ===

    I think it’s only ironic if Quinn is asked about it and Quinn doesn’t think Shhneider’s non-disclosure is an issue. Otherwise, the 10th is is not Quinn’s race — he is not responsible for every Dem below him on the ballot.


  26. - A guy... - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 2:15 pm:

    ===Otherwise, the 10th is is not Quinn’s race — he is not responsible for every Dem below him on the ballot.====

    He could be by November.


  27. - WootBaseball - Thursday, Jul 10, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    IL-10 will be the closest because of the strength of Dold, but in the end it will be a Republican net gain of 0.

    In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say R -1, as Rodney Davis will lose to Ann Callis.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* Kennedy blames "corruptible" assessment "racket" for underfunded schools
* Different budget perspectives
* Pritzker creates website, Pawar hits the road
* Can we learn anything from California?
* Not a huge mystery
* Push is on for Springfield casino
* Pols call for probe of warehouse deal
* How are we going to pay for this?
* Doctors voting with their feet
* Bank deposits and bank failures again issues here
* This is the wrong hill to die on
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Senate Democrats poised to vote on major tax hi.....
* News brief - The Independent..
* Senate Democrats poised to vote on major tax hi.....
* Chicago school board to consider up to $500 mil.....
* SALMAGUNDI: Property tax freeze won’t help fix .....
* SALMAGUNDI: Property tax freeze won't help fix .....
* Statehouse Insider: Have we hit bottom yet? - M.....
* Statehouse Insider: Have we hit bottom yet? - W.....
* Statehouse Insider: Have we hit bottom yet? - C.....


* Apollo 11 relic owned by Illinois woman to be auctioned off
* Head of Chicago nonprofit accused using grant funds on self
* Chicago development renews interest in housing program
* Illinois counties team up to make jury pools more diverse
* Backlash over plans to honor Puerto Rican militant at parade
* Student killed by hammer throw wasn't paying attention
* Science Says: Medications prevent opioid addiction relapse
* Chicago seeks to assure immigrants they're welcome in city
* Rare, $400K clock stolen from Chicago antique show
* Bevy of bobcats: Thriving animals poised as next urban pest

* Developer Stone pushing for casino in downtown Springfield
* Sangamon among counties in jury diversity pilot project
* Push to rename road after late Macon County sheriff
* Tricky, unpopular budget at crux of Senate 'grand bargain'
* Blagojevich attorneys ask for another appeals court hearing
* Rauner administration denies it planted false info about school funding reform
* Illinois to change sex-abuse law with help of Hastert victim
* Rauner administration denies it leaked false info about school funding reform
* Bill to honor Barack Obama's birthday headed to governor
* State of Illinois' unpaid CWLP bills piling up again

* Booth alum donates $20 million to school's Social Enterprise Initiative
* Delay on Obamacare subsidy decision leaves insurers in limbo
* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* USG bets on robots
* A microphone industry leader's next act


* Man shot, critically wounded in Englewood
* Marcus Kruger basking in glow of Sweden’s title in IIHF Championship
* Carlos Rodon fights ‘frustration’ on slow road back
* No one injured in vacant residential building fire in Lake Zurich
* Cries of racism, fear, meddling mark NW Side affordable housing flap
* Will David Ross’ finals scores secure him the mirrorball trophy?
* Former Kingsford Heights clerk treasurer charged with felony theft
* First-and-10: All eyes on Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky as OTAs open
* Cops: “Number of fatalities” at Ariana Grande concert in England
* Despite brilliant concept, reimagined ‘Great Expectations’ falls flat


* Groundbreaking held for Hindu temple in Naperville
* Ariana Grande concert explosion
* Funeral Mass on Tuesday for Cubs fan who died after Wrigley fall
* Championship window may be closing for Giants
* Senate Democrats poised to vote on major tax hikes Tuesday
* At least 19 people are confirmed dead, 50 injured at Ariana Grande concert in England
* White Sox top prospect Yoan Moncada appears in Chicago, just for doctor visit
* FBI: Passenger who disrupted flight to Hawaii had no luggage, just a laptop
* Cubs' David Ross finally hits it out of the park on 'Dancing with the Stars'
* Police: Investigation into Northbrook man's shooting death at Old Orchard is ongoing


» 2 More Leaks Found Along Dakota Access Pipeline
» Springfield Casino? A Businessman Likes The Odds
» Bevy Of Bobcats: Thriving Animals Poised As Next Urban Pest
» New York Parade Organizers Support Honoring Puerto Rican Nationalist
» Durbin: Too Early For Talk Of Impeachment
» Finding Closure: Cook County Families Get a Chance to Find Missing Loved Ones
» Mayor: More HIV Positive Chicaogoans Than Ever Receive Treatment
» Illinois’ Medicaid Problems Could Jeopardize Money For Schools, State Workers, Attorneys say
» CPD To Delay Start Of New Use-Of-Force Policy
» CPD Defends Start Date Of New Use-Of-Force Policy


* Marc Thiessen: Leakers who revealed Israel as intelligence source did far more damage than Trump
* Developer Stone pushing for casino in downtown Springfield
* Sangamon among counties in jury diversity pilot project
* Push to rename road after late Macon County sheriff
* Sounding the Alarm: A look at Illinois' financial crisis
* George Will: Federal power spins its ever-growing web
* Sounding the Alarm: Budget stability essential to creating strong economy
* Tricky, unpopular budget at crux of Senate 'grand bargain'
* Sounding the Alarm: Illinois needs changes to income, sales taxes
* Statehouse Insider: Have we hit bottom yet?


* South Roxana man charged with meth possession
* Council hears first reading of alcohol training ordinance
* Albion firefighters help shovel spaghetti off road
* Alton committee tentatively OKs Simpson tennis court work
* Dismissal of Champaign schools' facilities director draws protest
* Upcoming Services
* East Alton man tells police he’s ‘ready for a fight’; presumed to be ‘suicide by cop’
* A look inside new O'Fallon restaurant Korean Bobsang
* Kimchi pancakes anyone? Korean restaurant opens in O’Fallon
* PODCAST: News Gazette Sports Page 05-22-17


* Baseball: Batavia's Albanese, Robinson shut down Hoffman Estates
* Softball: Streamwood ousts Elgin
* Baseball: Aurora Christian, Harvest win 1A regionals; Cary-Grove's Sutherland gets win No. 600
* Rozner: These days, Chicago Cubs look out for themselves
* Man shot, killed in Elk Grove Village

* Second Democrat announces bid to unseat Hu...
* Local Republicans, Democrats praise appoin...
* Batavia resident, teacher hopes to challen...
* Batavia resident announces candidacy for 1...
* House GOP takes first steps to undo financ...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...
* Jim Walz Will Challenge Randy Hultgren for...
* PHOTOS: Protesters stage die-in at Randy H...
* Protesters continue die-in at US Rep. Rand...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren's office the scene ...

* Durbin Asks Feds for Help with Gun Violenc......
* Durbin Pens Letter To Jeff Sessions Asking......

* Democrat Senator Asks NSA for Security Det......

* Shots Fired This Afternoon On Eastwood
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Illinois senators meet with REALTOR® delegation on Capitol Hill
* RPAC by the numbers
* The Musical Line-Up For Rib Fest Has Been Announced (And It Takes My Breath Away)
* Watch Saint Lou’s Assembly chef Carlos Cruz make a ‘land caviar’ dish that really pops
* Brockmire won’t make America great again
* Volunteers Needed For Windy City RibFest Beer Tents
* Laura Kipnis talks sex on campus, the House Music Conference, and more things to do in Chicago his week
* GOP Congressman Kinzinger joins Democrat call for special prosecutor


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Fuchsia remains a mystery despite mention at Fireside Chat
* Apple and Visa targeted in infringement suit over Apple Pay tech
* Samsung Galaxy Note 8 to ditch fingerprint scanner, iPhone 8 costs & more – Pockentow Daily
* Does this tweet tease colors for the OnePlus 5?
* Mavin Motion says it can improve app engagement by making marketers more timely
* Twitter brings on a new lead for its live video business
* Hangouts SMS finally hung up for most, still on for Project Fi and Google Voice

* Moncada in Chicago for checkup on thumb
* Rodon frustrated but 'close to normal' in rehab
* Gonzalez looks to get on track vs. D-backs
* Gonzalez looks to get on track vs. D-backs
* Podcast: Hello, Luis Robert
* White Sox Minor League Update: May 21, 2017
* Lopez fires six strong for Charlotte


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller