SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sabato: Rauner now deemed favorite

Thursday, Jul 31, 2014

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Illinois’ governor’s race to “Leans Republican.” From Politico

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) terrible approval rating and the state’s struggling economy threaten his reelection efforts. We are now making venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R) the favorite in Illinois, changing the rating from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    BIAS!

    BIAS I say good sir…

    BIAS!


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    …and a Federal investigation…

    Quinn is down, the “much” could very well be too much, but August and September could be better for Quinn…

    …until October, and Commission hearings and the Us Attorney “thing”…

    Quinn needs hay in the barn, and Union support, and to be the lesser of two evils to Rauner.

    Going to be close.


  3. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    I doubt if it ever was a “toss-up.” Whoever came out of the GOP primary was going to have the edge, just like last time.


  4. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    It’s about time.


  5. - Mouthy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois..


  6. - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    I think this is a very difficult race to predict. PQ has alienated his Union core but they will hold their nose and support him over the alternative. Rauner to my surprise was victorious in the primary - mostly because of his vast personal wealth but his message of change in Springfield also seems to have some traction with independent voters. I wouldn’t have said this a couple of months ago but I do give Rauner a small edge right now.


  7. - Gooner - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    Rauner was always going to be the favorite.

    However, he seems to be doing his best to lose this one.

    As good as he was in the primary, he’s been bad since he got the nod.

    Why did he ever disclose a real tax plan? What was the upside?

    Sure, reporters were going to ask him. But so what? Voters tend not to like reporters anyway.

    So instead of keeping things vague, he discloses a tax plan that seems written for a Quinn ad. The more voters know about it, the more people will vote for Quinn.

    And it was completely unnecessary. Most voters think there is a magical way to balance the budget without raising taxes. Rauner should have let them think that.

    In any case, due to unforced errors by Rauner, I suspect this will tighten up and “Toss up” is where we will be in November.


  8. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Sabato is pretty careful.
    If he says it, then it is pretty much a confirmation.


  9. - walker - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    Seems correct for now.


  10. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Yeah, the union voters will probably pick Quinn, but the support will be lukewarm … may not result in a serious GOTV operation and that is what will determine this race.


  11. - Federalist - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Sabato is correct at this time.

    But this is July and not November.


  12. - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Maybe a good QUOTD would be “Potential Rauner Administration Agency Directors” even if it is WAY too premature. It would still be fun!

    Might make for an interesting Friday, Rich. BTW, McConnaughay for IDOT Secretary!!


  13. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    As the election nears with Quinn numbers looking more and more like Netsch in 1994, when will Durbin wake up and distance himself from Quinn’s train wreck? Downstate Democrats have two Democratic congressmen in competitive races. If this keeps up they’re toast.


  14. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    @Blaire- Good question, in the Thompson/Edgar/Ryan era there was a deep bench of people who would move between agencies or in and out of the private sector into these positions. These days, there is no bench, and a house cleaning of D’s (mainly moving them back into Rutan positions if Quinn loses) will result in a lot of empty chairs to be filled quickly by who knows who. BTW, Karen M. would do a creditable job if asked.


  15. - foster brooks - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    lets see what happens when rauners tax returns surface….lol


  16. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Six Degrees:

    Karen May?? The democrat? For press secretary?


  17. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    It would be a big demotion and he’d never take it, but how about Rahm for short term COS?

    He’d definitely clean house! LOL


  18. - olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    === Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois. ===

    Yes, it used to be that way, but the Republican Party is being taken over by hard right-wing extremists.

    Rauner’s self-confessed “corporate welfare agenda,” insofar as it’s known, is pretty much dictated by the Koch brothers and other out-of-state extremists. If he has any political principles at all, and he’s given no evidence whatsoever that he does, they’re a little to the right of Marie Antoinette.


  19. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    In yesterday’s RSEA speech, Rauner said he had no ambition beyond 8 years as Gov.


  20. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:59 pm:

    YDD - I was referring to State Sen Karen McConnaughay (33rd) who might be on a short list for IDOT Sec with a Rauner win, who I think Blaire was referring to.


  21. - Enviros-Anon - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 5:24 pm:

    Does this make Quinn the official underdog in this election campaign?
    It is really not a bad place to be before Labor Day when the campaign begins and people start to pay attention.


  22. - Yep - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 pm:

    These numbers in July are not a surprise, but they should be causing consternation in Quinn Land. Amazingly, PQ’s downstate general election campaign is even more inept and invisible as it was four years ago. I just don’t see BR getting clobbered in the collars like Brady did so it is imperative that PQ try to narrow the beat down he’s going to get downstate.
    That being said I just don’t see BR pulling this thing out especially since MJM and Durbin seem committed to dragging PQ across the finish line.
    If these numbers keep up in late-September, though, I could see MJM and DD throwing PQ under the bus.


  23. - thomas slick - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 6:30 am:

    Does it really matter anymore? I say write in john D’Amico.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* How to survive a crazy boss
* Grandstand rollout begins
* Both sides of the governor's involvement
* Cubs trophy coming to Springfield
* Another wave of bomb threats includes Chicago's Jewish Community Center
* It's just a bill
* Mendoza takes heat over used car purchase
* Getting to a "win" is important for some Dems
* Bustos won't run for governor
* Charlie Brown's football
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* What cities and towns want out of Springfield -.....
* US Rep. Cheri Bustos Decides Against Run For Il.....
* Both sides of the governor's involvement - The .....
* Bustos Will Not Join Illinois Gubernatorial Rac.....
* Jim Dey: He’s got a vested interest in state bu.....
* Getting to a “win” is important for some Dems -.....
* Charlie Brown's football - The Capitol Fax Blog.....
* Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Ch.....


* Excerpts from recent editorials in newspapers in Illinois
* Austria approves US extradition for Ukrainian oligarch
* Firefighters work on 1,300-acre southern Illinois wildfire
* GW: Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth to speak at graduation
* Former white supremacists help others leave hate groups
* Leaving hate behind: Ex-extremists quit groups, help others
* Austria approves US extradition for Ukrainian oligarch
* EXCHANGE: Cervical cancer survivor pushing for screening
* Illinois State University seeks public input on its future
* Thousands of demonstrators across US say 'Not My President'

* Illinois State University seeks public input on its future
* AFSCME strike authorization vote outcome to be revealed this week
* Cheri Bustos won't run for Illinois governor
* Illinois bill would rein in pro athletes' worker comp claims
* GOP criticizes Illinois comptroller for buying used $32K SUV
* Effort to privatize economic development questioned
* State budget impasse still hurting schools
* DHS moving into former Barney's Furniture store
* Madigan says House will consider sale of Thompson Center
* Bustos, other Dems demand Rauner pay domestic violence money

* Mondelez rolling out snacks free of GMOs, artificial ingredients
* White House wants to give insurers more time to file 2018 rates
* Aetna fattens shareholder payout after Humana deal fails
* House GOP hails health plan that Democrats call inadequate
* Our most-viewed real estate stories in the past week


* Ald. Austin says she’s praying for grandson charged with murder
* Heavy opposition stalls Emanuel’s property tax rebate plan
* Corps won’t extend deadline for protest camp disbanding
* City expands ShotSpotter sensors and gunfire intelligence centers
* 660 horsepower of rain-delayed ‘humility’ revs into Cubs camp
* Lucas Giolito says he learned from major league struggle in 2016
* Burger King, Tim Hortons owner buys Popeyes
* Yahoo salvages Verizon deal with $350 million discount
* 22-year-old man reported missing from Brighton Park
* Cubs, Sox Tuesday spring training report


* More stories: Chicago Tribune reports on lead risks in drinking water
* Supreme Court seems split in case of Mexican teen slain across border
* Yahoo salvages Verizon deal with $350 million discount
* Aldermen to Emanuel: Don't use leftover money for tree planting
* Northwestern's home finale will be shown nationally on CBS
* Trump administration greatly expanding number of people targeted for deportation
* Slaughtering Illinois coyotes in contest hunts is poor sport
* Seth Meyers and Stephen Colbert harpoon Trump's Sweden gaffe
* U.S. extradition OK'd for Ukrainian billionaire indicted in Chicago and linked to Trump
* 'Abortion reversal' bill clears Indiana panel for 2nd time


» Chicago Cop With Long Complaint History Heads Busy Police District
» Hundreds Protest Trump At Chicago 'Not My President' Rally
» Report: Chicago's African-American Men More Likely To Be Unemployed, Undereducated
» Citizenship Ceremony Held For 25 People At City Hall
» With Eye On Farmers Markets, Lawmakers Target Regulations
» Chicago Aldermen Consider Crackdown On Street Performers
» Gary’s Disappearing Public Schools
» Why Was Rauner Budget Proposal Greeted With Confusion?
» Syrian Family Reunites Three Weeks After Travel Ban
» Man Charged In Shooting Death Of Chicago Toddler


* Illinois State University seeks public input on its future
* Their View: Editorial: Remembering Bob Michel
* Kathleen Parker: Meet Rick. Meet the football. Hike!
* AFSCME strike authorization vote outcome to be revealed this week
* Cheri Bustos won't run for Illinois governor
* Illinois bill would rein in pro athletes' worker comp claims
* Their View: Why aren't Illinoisans blocking traffic in front of their Capitol?
* GOP criticizes Illinois comptroller for buying used $32K SUV
* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Rodney Davis, who expects the challenge
* Effort to privatize economic development questioned


* Mellencamp, Derulo among State Fair acts
* Calhoun wildfire now at 1,300 acres
* Lindenwood professor publishes book about Virgin Mary’s mother
* Jazz Festival returns to SIU this weekend
* ISU seeks public input on its future
* Pilot, 4 U.S. tourists killed in Australian plane crash
* Noon update: More records, Deere office at ISU and messing with mom
* 02-21-17 Jim Turpin with Jim Dey
* 02-21-17 Penny for Your Thoughts.
* WWE coming to State Farm Center


* Cubs coach drives home a lesson with a stunning Ferrari
* St. Louis Blues 7-3 under Yeo following in-season firing
* Supreme Court rejects Alabama death row appeal
* Daktronics to outfit digital displays at new Bucks arena
* Macy's profit falls nearly 13 percent as sales drop as well

* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* Hultgren guides STEM scholars through pres...
* Voters Shame Cowardly Reps with Town Halls...
* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* Hultgren updates work on heroin, opioid ab...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren talks veterans' iss...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren reflects on busines...
* GOP congressman appears to distance himsel...

* Durbin broadens factors in considering Tru......

* GW: Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth to speak......
* GW: Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth to speak......
* GW: Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth to speak......

* Hitting Left Episode #3 with the Klonsky brothers and in-studio guest Bill Ayers.
* This week’s Hitting Left with the Klonsky brothers. Exclusive interview with Yonatan Shipira. The journey of an Israeli fighter pilot to peace activist and musician. And Chicago education activist and musician Matt Farmer.
* Keeping retirement weird. Betsy DeVos and racial education gaslighting.
* Tony at the Red Line Tap.
* Today’s Hitting Left playlist.
* Gentrifying Chicago. CPS now targets Hispanic schools.
* Reforming civil discovery – Part 1 – the problem of human nature
* Trayvon Martin’s parents on their book Rest in Power, Brown Girls premiere, and more things to do in Chicago this week
* Hundreds gather for ‘Not My President’ rally outside Trump Tower, and other Chicago news
* My Chocolate Soul Finds Its Home On Broadway


* Stars and Legends to Perform at 2017 Illinois State Fair - First Round of Grandstand Headliners Announced for Springfield Fair
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* 2017 Budget Address
* Rauner, Lawmakers Move to Protect Taxpayers from Inmate Legal Bills
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Announcednew pilot program titled Tiny Boots

  
* News Organizations Refocus FBI Lawsuit to Question Cost of San Bernardino iPhone Hack Tool
* Get a look at the on-screen buttons from the Samsung Galaxy S8
* Samsung could start selling refurbished Galaxy Note 7’s soon
* Travel app Hopper will now break down airlines’ confusing fees
* HTC U Ultra in India for Rs. 59,990, U Play for Rs. 39,990
* Latest round of iPhone 8 speculation details ‘3D-sensing’ front camera, RAM and ROM options
* Hands-on photos show off Moto G5 with new design and fingerprint gestures

* This is not a typo: Soto throws to Soto during BP
* Garcia driven to reclaim outfield spot
* Garcia driven to reclaim outfield spot
* Bourjos enticed to White Sox by weather, opportunity
* Bourjos enticed to White Sox by opportunity, locale
* Renteria expects bright future for White Sox
* Top pick Burdi White Sox closer of future?


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller