Question of the day
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
The Quinn campaign today released a new television ad focusing on Bruce Rauner’s record of laying off workers, outsourcing jobs overseas, jumping through elite tax loopholes, and stashing cash in the Cayman Islands- a notorious tax haven.
Time and time again, Bruce Rauner has shown his willingness to game the system in order to get rich at the expense of everyday people in ways that run counter to his professed love for Illinois. The 30-second TV ad, which includes cited facts about Rauner’s record, will begin running statewide on Tuesday.
* The ad…
* The Question: What do you think of Gov. Quinn’s new TV ad? Explain, please.
…Adding… Ah, heck, let’s do a poll, too…
survey tool
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* Tribune…
It may not feel like it to Chicago-area drivers, but Illinois is the third least expensive state to operate a vehicle, according to a study released Monday by personal finance site Bankrate.com.
Illinois’ drivers spend on average $343 a year in repairs, $698 in insurance and $947 in gasoline, for a grand total of $1,999 in yearly costs, which puts Illinois just below Ohio and Iowa, named the cheapest state at $1,942. (Iowa has the cheapest insurance rates in the country, Bankrate said, and car repairs are also relatively inexpensive.)
Of course, Chicagoland motorists tend to spend much more than drivers across the state on average. Using the average price of gas last year in Chicago versus the Illinois average with Bankrate’s calulation for average gallons used, Chicagoans paid $980 for gas last year compared with $947 statewide.
The most expensive state in which to operate a vehicle was Wyoming, according to Bankrate, with yearly average costs of $2,705.
Chicagoans apparently don’t drive as much as Downstaters, so that would explain why their costs aren’t that much higher.
* But back to reality…
A new report by Realtytrac shows Illinois among the top 10 states in the number of home foreclosures.
The numbers come at a time when homeownership rates in the nation have fallen to a 19-year low.
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Mike Smith
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Arrangements for former state Rep. Mike Smith…
A visitation will be held on Wednesday, August 13, 2014 from 3-7, at the Oaks-Hines Funeral Home in Canton. A funeral services will be on Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 10 am, at the funeral home.
* Journal Star…
Longtime friends and political colleagues from both sides of the aisle spent Saturday recalling “a good soul” — hardworking, even-tempered, kind lawmaker who died too soon.
Former state Rep. Mike Smith, D-Canton, died overnight Friday at age 48 of a heart attack.
The longtime state lawmaker, who left the Legislature in 2011 after a 16-year career and then served on the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Board, will be “remembered as one of the truly nice guys in the Legislature,” onetime colleague Sen. Dave Koehler, D-Peoria, said Saturday afternoon.
“Everybody was his friend,” he said. “He just had that kind of personality and that kind of charm.”
I lost count of the number of texts, e-mails and phone calls I received over the weekend pointing me to this and other stories.
* The man who defeated Smith in 2010 had a very classy statement…
Statement from Rep. Mike Unes on the passing of his predecessor, Rep. Mike Smith, overnight.
“I was very saddened to hear of the passing of Rep. Mike Smith. My sincere prayers and the prayers of our region are with his family and friends. I always found Mike to be a kind, caring man who cared deeply about public service. His service to our region will not be forgotten. He will be missed by all who had the privilege of knowing him.”
* More…
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn says that Smith set an example for what service to the people of his district and the people of Illinois should be. “Our thoughts are with his family and numbers friends who may be comforted by his legacy of service,” says Quinn of Smith’s passing.
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan praised his dedication to both his district and to education. “No one worked more tirelessly on behalf of our school children than Mike Smith. Mike Smith always had a very keen interest in looking after the well-being of Canton and central Illinois.”
Mike was the youngest member of the House when he was first elected. He had health issues for years that he was never able to personally overcome. I’m really sorry to see him go.
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Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Another day, another poll…
According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.
Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.
The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.
From the pollster…
The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.
Hmm.
* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart…
Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.
* Meanwhile…
Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.
Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.
For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.
The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.
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Quinn demanding debates
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Usually, when a candidate is complaining that his or her opponent is dodging debates, that means the candidate is trailing badly. From a press release…
Below is the statement of Quinn for Illinois Deputy Press Secretary Izabela Miltko following news that Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner fled the state once more to one of his out-of-state luxury properties, a 6,000 square foot, $2.2 million ranch in an exclusive area of Montana on the edge of Yellowstone National Park. Rauner has so far refused participation in any debates for the 2014 general election campaign for governor.
“Harry Truman said if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. But with Bruce Rauner, the question becomes, “Which kitchen?” since he owns so many.
“Faced with questions about his troubling business record, his stashing cash in the Cayman Islands, and his refusal to release his full tax records; Bruce Rauner has again retreated to his Montana ranch that helped him avoid paying his fair share of taxes.
“But Bruce Rauner is not just dodging tough questions: he’s also dodging debates.
“Mr. Rauner may have nine luxury properties to flee to when the going gets tough, but he can’t hide forever from a debate on the issues that the people of Illinois deserve.”
Below is a full list of the debates for which Governor Quinn has accepted the invitation to participate. Bruce Rauner to date has refused participation.
Sept 17th: Daily Herald
Oct. 7th: University of Illinois in Champaign
Oct. 9th: League of Women Voters/ PBS Peoria
Oct. 14th: Urban League and Business Leadership DuSable Museum
Oct 16th: League of Women Voters / ABC7 Chicago
Oct. 19th: Elmhurst College
Oct. 23 - NBC5/U of C Institute of Politics
Oct. 30th: WTTW/ Chicago Tonight
* Other stuff…
* Rauner splashes cash around to help fellow Republicans: Since the start of 2013, the Rauners have made 119 political contributions — giving a total of more than $265,000 — to 75 Republican organizations across Illinois.
* Gov race spending soars, but ‘you ain’t seen nothing yet’
* Hate to bug you, Gov. Quinn or Mr. Rauner, but try this…
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New AARP poll shows serious anxiety
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AARP has a new poll of Illinoisans aged 50 and over. Click here to read it all. Let’s start with the politics. Bruce Rauner leads Gov. Pat Quinn 48-39…
Again, the governor has base problems.
* President Obama’s job approval rating is upside down among the 50+ crowd…
* But the real story here is the deep anxiety levels among the aging and aged. For instance, 61 percent of non-retirees say they have or will delay their retirement for financial reasons. And 76 percent of all of those polled say the Illinois economy is bad, with 46 percent saying it’s “very bad”…
* Almost two-thirds say their income is falling behind their cost of living…
* “Looking ahead to the next five years or so, do you feel more hopeful and confident, or more worried and concerned about being able to achieve your economic and financial goals?” More worried and concerned are in red…
* “Voters are assigned 20 points for each of five economic concerns about which they say they worry very or somewhat often. A minimum score of 0 reflects no economic anxiety, while a maximum score of 100 indicates a great deal of economic anxiety”…
It isn’t difficult to see why Bruce Rauner keeps bringing up the tax issue every chance he gets.
* On to other concerns. 64 percent said it was important to them “that the next governor preserve access to reliable, affordable landline service in Illinois,” with half saying it was “very important”…
* “How important is this issue in helping you make your voting decisions this year? - Helping older people and the disabled live independently.” 79 percent said it was important, with 65 percent saying “very important”…
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Today’s number: 32 percent
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From last week…
Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign says the 2013 hiring of an $80,000 per year policy analyst at the state’s transportation agency had nothing to do with politics.
But, records show Edward M. Healy, 29, served as chairman of a campaign fund that had close connections to the Chicago Democrat’s campaign until June of that year.
Healy, who serves as a public transportation policy analyst for the Illinois Department of Transportation, chaired the Stronger Illinois Committee, which raised money from labor unions and funneled it to Democratic candidates running in the 2012 election for the General Assembly
The executive director of the Stronger Illinois committee was Cheryl Byers, a longtime Quinn friend and supporter who is now back on the governor’s campaign payroll as political director after helping him win the race for governor in 2010.
Byers is considerably more than just “a longtime Quinn friend.”
* And most of the money raised by the committee didn’t get funneled into legislative campaigns. Take a look at this breakdown of the Stronger Illinois Committee’s finances…
* Total money raised: 22 receipts totaling $227,800
* Transfers out to campaigns: 142 Expenditures totaling $74,010
* Total expenditures excluding transfers out: 136 Expenditures totaling $150,935.66
* Cheryl Byers, payroll and reimbursements: 36 Expenditures totaling $77,409.08
* Taxes: 32 Expenditures totaling $43,149.24
* Rent: 24 Expenditures totaling $6,000
Transfers out to campaigns totaled a mere 32 percent of total funds raised. Expenditures were twice that of transfers out, and Byers’ pay and reimbursements also exceeded transfers out.
Sheesh.
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* Last October, Bernie Schoenburg tried to get some answers from Bruce Rauner about the candidate’s land holdings outside Illinois. After multiple attempts, he didn’t succeed…
I asked why he was reluctant to provide specifics.
“There’s no hiding here,” Rauner said. “We’ve got to focus like a laser. … You know what? At the right time, we’ll be talking in detail about all my investments and all my tax returns and all that stuff. Today, it’s focused on jobs, schools, taxes and term limits.”
* After the Tribune reported on Rauner’s Montana/Wyoming property in more detail, Bernie followed up with the campaign…
Interestingly, the campaign’s on-the-record response the next day came via email from Steven Yaffe, who happens to be my 19-year-old nephew from New Jersey who has completed his freshman year at the University of Chicago. He said he recently joined Rauner’s communications team as press assistant, and I was the subject of his first on-the-record response.
“Press assistant”? Hardly. Read on…
Last month, Yaffe became part of a story about the gubernatorial campaign when he was ousted from the site of a Quinn event by an Illinois State Police trooper assigned to Quinn’s security detail. Yaffe was working as a “tracker,” which is a campaign operative assigned to record actions of the opponent. As seen on a WLS-TV story on July 22, Yaffe’s video shows the trooper telling him to “stay out” and Yaffe’s protestations that it was a public event.
So, Rauner’s campaign apparently promoted a 19-year-old tracker to “press assistant” and then they tell him that his first assignment is responding to his uncle’s inquiry?
What a bunch of jerks.
Not to mention that the kid chose politics over blood. But he’s just a kid. The Rauner campaign, on the other hand, apparently has no shame.
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“Evelyn loves the Springfield area”
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Evelyn Sanguinetti contacted a former law school classmate who is a staff attorney at the Illinois Department of Human Rights about getting a state job before she was tapped to be Bruce Rauner’s running mate…
“Hello Honey — With the New Year, I am seeking other employment opportunities. Is anything available in ur hood?” she wrote in an email to the attorney [on the afternoon of Jan. 1, 2013].
The worker responded a day later, saying nothing was open and that state government was in the midst of a budget-related round of layoffs. But he suggested she file her resume with the state’s main hiring agency in order to get the process moving. […]
And, the Wheaton resident added, “Isn’t cow tipping a work requirement in Springfield (LOL)?”
Schrimpf suggested the comment wasn’t meant as a dig about downstate Illinois.
“The cow tipping reference was a jovial exchange … Evelyn loves the Springfield area, and unlike Pat Quinn, who spends the bulk of his time in Chicago, she looks forward to working in the capital region next year,” Schrimpf said.
Have at it, campers.
* Meanwhile, let’s go back to that new Sun-Times poll…
When asked who was “better prepared to serve as governor if the need arises,” 45 percent of respondents gave the nod to the former Chicago Public Schools CEO, Vallas, who ran for governor in 2002. Wheaton City Councilwoman Sanguinetti drew support from 35 percent of those polled.
That ain’t much of a help to Quinn.
* Crosstabs…
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A near miss at Bud Billiken parade
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* DNAInfo…
Two people were shot during the annual Bud Billiken Parade Saturday, police said.
The victims, an 18-year-old man and a 17-year-old boy were shot about 12:30 in the 4200 block of South King Drive. The man said he was standing on King Drive when a group of people he did not know approached him, said Officer Veejay Zala, a police spokesman.
An argument ensued, and one person in the group pulled out a gun and shot the victim, Zala said. The group then fled northbound on King Drive. The man, who was shot in the left arm, was taken to Northwestern Memorial Hospital in “stable” condition. The boy was shot in the right hand and suffered a graze wound to his buttocks. He was taken to Stroger Hospital in “stable” condition.
The boy’s wounds appear to have been self-inflicted.
* CBS2…
The shooting occurred as Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner was shaking the hands of potential voters along the parade route in that general area, campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf confirms.
Schrimpf says he and others at the scene noticed spectators ducking and fleeing and police activity. He said he did not hear any gunfire with all of the parade-related noise.
Schrimpf says he doesn’t think Rauner was aware the shooting had happened, as he and his supporters and campaign bus passed by.
More…
“We were walking along the parade route and then suddenly, for whatever reason — we now know it was a shooting,” Rauner spokesman Mike Schrimpf said. “There was a bunch of spectators suddenly running south and away from what was going on. We at the time had no idea what was going on. We just saw a bunch of people running away.”
* Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon claims to have heard the shots…
Near 42nd Street, a group of people suddenly ran toward the barricades that lined the street. A woman shouted something I couldn’t understand and then she ran north, with a crowd running behind her.
That’s when I heard three, maybe four, loud bangs right in a row.
It sounded like firecrackers. Sure, I’ve shot guns before but I guess I’m fortunate to have grown up in a part of the state where my first thought went to firecrackers.
Many of the people around me, who evidently didn’t think of firecrackers at all, dropped to the ground. Other paradegoers ran, many carrying babies and small children, in any direction they could that wasn’t near the sound of possible gunfire. I looked to the area where the sounds came from figuring if anyone was shot he or she would need help. Not that I could do a darned thing on my own, but I knew people who could. I don’t have a security detail, but there were two state police officers close by.
As I searched for them, Chicago police started running past me.
People who had dropped down for safety were starting to stand up again. I noticed members of the Thornton Township High School marching band, in their beautiful purple and white uniforms, had dropped to the pavement for safety, right in their rank-and-file position.
* Sun-Times…
“Why can’t we just have one day of peace?” paradegoer Sherri Grover shouted to the crowd as police attended to the victims.
“I just ask that the gangbangers stop the violence, please,” Grover said. “This is the one day for our children.”
Witnesses said several babies and a woman in a wheelchair were nearby when the two were shot.
* The Quinn campaign’s video of the parade makes no mention of the shooting…
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Quinn’s base problem
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A new poll of 1,085 likely voters conducted by We Ask America for the Chicago Sun-Times finds Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 51-38. The most explicable difference between this poll and one leaked to Michael Sneed by the Quinn campaign (and which I also obtained and gave to subscribers) is that this WAA poll is of likely voters. The Quinn numbers, which had him down by one point, were registered voters - which is almost always a more Democratic universe in off-year elections.
* But check this out: “Which gubernatorial candidate do you consider to be a reformer?…
Oof. So much for “You know who I am.”
And check out some of the crosstabs on this question…
Look at how few Democrats and Chicagoans consider Quinn to be a reformer.
* Which candidate for governor do you think understands your every day concerns?…
No success yet in painting Rauner as an out of touch billionaire. From the xtabs…
Quinn really has problems with his base, not to mention with independents. Ouch.
* Which candidate for governor is more likely to solve Illinois’ budget problems?…
Despite the fact that Rauner’s plan would blow a gigantic hole in the state budget, even Democrats aren’t thrilled with Quinn’s plan…
* Back to the Sun-Times story…
A deeper dive into the head-to-head data in the poll between Rauner and Quinn shows that the Republican is outscoring the incumbent among both men and women. Rauner also appears to be doing surprisingly well among those who identified themselves as Democrats, spelling potential trouble for the governor.
Nearly 17 percent of Democrats chose Rauner as their preferred option for governor, the poll showed. By contrast, Quinn got the nod from self-identified Republican voters 7 percent of the time.
The survey also has Rauner with a steep advantage among independents. The poll found that nearly 54 percent of those swing voters chose the Republican candidate, compared to nearly 32 percent for Quinn.
Most of those Democrats will “come home.” And if you look at the xtabs, 12 percent of Democrats were undecided. So the race will obviously tighten up down the stretch.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
As you probably know by now, the US Attorney’s office in Chicago has agreed to drop all felony charges against Illinois state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago) and has charged him instead with a simple misdemeanor.
The original 17 federal counts of bank fraud and submitting false information to a bank each carried potential sentence of 30 years in prison and a $1 million fine - meaning Ford was essentially looking at spending the rest of his natural life behind bars for allegedly falsely obtaining a higher credit line that he wasn’t eligible for and using part of the proceeds for things unrelated to the loan’s stated purpose.
The new charge of delivering a false tax return to the IRS is calculated in the plea agreement to be a term of zero to six months.
What the heck happened here?
The Assistant US Attorney who was in charge of Ford’s case also handled state Rep. Derrick Smith’s investigation. Smith was recently convicted of accepting a cash bribe, but one of the jurors in the trial told the Chicago Tribune after the verdict that some of his colleagues struggled with what they considered to be “sleazy” federal tactics.
Ford’s legal team included famed criminal defense attorney Tom Durkin. The team filed a motion in June which attracted some press coverage over an explosive claim that Ford was being targeted because he was a black legislator. But the motion to dismiss the indictment also revealed for the first time how the case began, which Ford’s attorneys said “belie the notion that this is an even-handed, simple bank fraud case.”
At the time of Ford’s indictment, the US Attorney’s office claimed the investigation fell “under the umbrella of the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force,” which the feds claimed was investigating “significant financial crimes.”
But an FBI report from May of 2011 shows that a mortgage broker under indictment was asked by the FBI about a loan officer who worked out of an office owned by Ford. The broker was asked if he’d ever spoken with Ford, if he knew whether Ford had other offices and if he knew whether Ford managed his campaign office out of his realty office. The case title on the FBI form was “CSLPO,” which means “Corruption of State and Local Public Officials.” Ford’s lawyers wrote that the federal probe was “undeniably a politically motivated investigation.”
The defense also pointed to a recent FDIC civil suit brought against ShoreBank, where Ford did business. One of the defendants was alleged to be negligent for violating policy on 20 loans. The defendant was also Ford’s managing loan officer. The allegations included misconduct by other ShoreBank loan customers (several of whom are white) which appeared to far exceed Ford’s. And a 2008 internal FDIC report uncovered by Ford’s attorneys described the legislator as being “extremely cooperative” with the bank, and pointed to what Ford’s lawyers say was the his real problem - the downward spiral of the real estate market.
“Unable to find any political corruption grounds to prosecute Defendant, the prosecutors selected this misguided and improper bank fraud case,” Ford’s attorneys wrote. Ford’s attorneys also demanded information from prosecutors about any other federal investigations of ShoreBank customers and any directives from above on how to handle the Ford investigation.
The Assistant US Attorney who handled Ford’s case has since left for private practice and a new US Attorney is now in place. Those two career moves appeared to have put some fresh eyes on this Ford matter, particularly after that motion to dismiss was filed.
Whatever happened, US Attorney Zachary Fardon deserves plaudits for reexamining this prosecution. From the very start, the case appeared to be heavy-handed and overly charged and nowhere near in line with the financial task force’s goal of prosecuting “significant” crimes. It’s not often that a top federal prosecutor will back down, but Fardon obviously did and that’s to his great credit.
The new charges agreed to by Ford state he overvalued a property’s rehab costs by about $23,000 when calculating his capital gains on the property’s sale, which wound up costing the IRS $3,782 in lost taxes.
“I regret this mistake,” Ford wrote to his colleagues last week, and concluded by saying he hoped the ordeal “will make me a better person and a more effective Member of the Illinois General Assembly.”
Ford obviously has his flaws, but I hope he can now move forward with his life.
* Related…
* Fardon explains LaShawn Ford plea deal: “It’s not our job to win or lose,” Fardon said. “It’s our job to do the right thing. My office is full of altruistic public servants who work hard every day to make hard judgments about what is the right thing given the particular facts and circumstances in front of them. That’s what we do. And so, in that case as in all, we did what we thought was right.”
* LaShawn Ford honored at West Side church
* Rep. LaShawn Ford Says He Still Has Supporters, Hasn’t Lost ‘Respect’
* Editorial: Ford’s sweet victory: The Journal has been stout in its defense of LaShawn Ford, not because we had any insights into his tax returns but because we have come to know him in our reporting of his efforts as Austin and Oak Park’s state rep over the past eight years and as a real estate developer before that. We could ask harsh questions of the U.S. Attorney’s Office because these charges have always seemed a gigantic overreach to us.
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