* A friend sent me this text message Saturday evening. I enhanced it with links…

Just witnessed: Quinn’s van attack ad immediately followed by the Rauner van ad

Took ALL of the wind out of Rauner’s ad

An hour and a half later, from the same friend…

Dude. It just happened again but with the minimum wage ad

The more I think about it, the more I believe that van ad is a silly mistake on Rauner’s part.

* And speaking of the minimum wage…

The [Tribune] poll found 69 percent of Illinois voters back an increase in the state’s $8.25-an-hour minimum wage to $10 by Jan. 1 for adults over age 18. Only 27 percent oppose the proposal, while 5 percent had no opinion. The statewide poll, conducted among 800 registered voters Sept. 3-12, had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. […]

Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats favor a wage rate increase. Republicans are split, with 51 percent opposing it and 42 percent supporting it. But among independent voters, traditionally a swing voting bloc, 65 percent favor a wage rate increase and 30 percent oppose it.

Even a majority of voters who consider themselves either very or fairly conservative — 54 percent — backed a higher minimum wage in Illinois, compared with 41 percent who oppose it.

* Geography and race…

…Adding… Related…

* Bridge Project Video: Bruce Rauner: Adamantly Against What’s Right for Illinois

       

42 Comments - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:01 am: The same thing happened Sunday morning right after Meet the Press ended. Rauner ran the van ad and Quinn’s ad attacking the van ad ran 30 seconds ater. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:02 am: I assumed it was a coincidence. Is there some way to set up an order for your ads to do this? I would assume not, but who knows. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:03 am: The van Ad, at this point, is telling me, subliminally; “I think you are dumb. If I tell you this van is the real me, you will believe. I can sell you anything.” Rauner will lose more and more voters pretending he is someone he is not, no matter how he thinks he lives, the guy has 9 homes, including 23,000 acres and an “apartment” with a moat around his building. I was born at night… - Amalia - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:09 am: wow. van ad answer ad is great! - Whatever - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:09 am: Rauner’s van ad is so insincere it’s insulting, even to low information voters. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:13 am: Yeah, hard to be impressed with the van ad. Agree, it is insulting to even a low info voter. - Nonplussed - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:15 am: So…. Maybe the Tribune poll is actually showing how this race is breaking? Why does it have to be close, like everyone is saying it will be? Because it was 4 years ago? That doesn’t make sense. The Democrats are aligned this year. Madigan’s ballot resolutions were aimed at defeating Rauner. Madigan wasn’t so helpful four years ago. Rauner is not running a good race (e.g., the van ad). Quinn has actual pros running his campaign–getting De Blasio’s manager was a coup. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:15 am: Rauner “evolved” on the minimum wage issue. So much for that. - Snucka - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:17 am: We sometimes can get too caught up in the “inside game” because we follow this stuff every day. However, as mentioned above, the Van Ad and the general attempt to sell Rauner as Joe Sixpack is ridiculous. When talking with my non-political junkie friends, the one thing they know about Rauner - even if nothing else - is that he’s “that rich guy”. Running ads pretending to be what people know you’re not seems just pointless. He’s never going to win the “relates to people like me” vote and it’s counterproductive to try. - Rahm'sMiddleFinger - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:17 am: It’s surprising to me that they haven’t pulled it yet. Doesn’t make a lot of sense. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:19 am: The van ad was too much. It’s just not believable. Plus, it’s condescending, bordering on insulting. Is that how he thinks, “Regular Joes” roll? In wheels loaded with garbage and covered in bird padookie? Believe it or not, regular people wash their cars and throw out their garbage. Rauner’s had it wrong from the get-go. People take pride in what they’ve accomplished and what they have. His whole strategy of pretending to be something he is not can’t endure a year-long campaign cycle. Inevitably, it just comes off as phony. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:20 am: I have been a Republican all my life and rarely have voted Democratic and I think Quinn is incompetent. Rauner has/had serious work to do to push me away from voting for him. I think he has been successful in doing that. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:27 am: == Inevitably, it just comes off as phony. == At Rauner’s level of wealth, it seems impossible to argue otherwise. But isn’t the race to be seen as a “Regular Joe” the key element to many races? Everyone from Scott Brown to Barack Obama emphasizes their “just a regular guy” bona fides. And who can forget the Bush-Gore and even Obama-Romney, “who would you rather have a beer with” questions? Or is it about being “likeable” more than being a “Regular Joe”? - Meanderthal - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:28 am: Does anybody really think Illinois will be better off giving Quinn another 4 years? The man has been overpromoted and does not have the ability to manage the state’s finances in a competant way. There there is all the grant money corruption and patronage at IDOT, which stinks even by IDOT standards. Quinn is the better populist politician but Rauner will be a much better Governor in bringing about some much needed reforms. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:30 am: If you really have a twenty year old van, and you like it, it isnt covered in smashed bugs and bird crap. Rauner may own the van. When the kids were done w it, he prob let the help use it. He will sell the state plane. And prob hire his own plane to get around - Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:30 am: Who ever came up with that commercial of Rauner should be fired along with the illegal hires at IDOT. And I mean today. - Langhorne - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:31 am: Anon 1030a = me - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:33 am: ^^^Does anybody really think Illinois will be better off giving Quinn another 4 years?^^^ There you go. That is Rauner’s hope. “I have all kinds of problems and have no real plan to run the state, but I am better than the other guy” That may be enough to win. - Wally - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:39 am: For the next 48-50 days, the Rauner crew needs to blast away at the economy, IDOT, the $55 mil anti-violence scandal, with heavy emphasis on the economy. Forget the cutesy van ads and go for the meat. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:44 am: @Meanderthal: I think Illinois will be what it is 4 years from now based on market forces and social trends and political decisions far beyond the control of an Illinois governor, any Illinois governor. Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas has shown that a Republican-dominated government that implements only policies based on conservative think tank wish lists like what Rauner wants to do can mess up just as badly as the Democrats of Illinois. - AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:46 am: ^^^Does anybody really think Illinois will be better off giving Quinn another 4 years?^^^ Yes. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:48 am: When I saw the Rauner van ad I thought he was pandering on a grand scale and was becoming defensive. Why doesn’t Rauner just own his wealth and do an ad from one of his expensive homes? When he says he’s not going to take a salary as governor, does he not know how insulting it can be to thousands of government workers who have to get paid? - Nieva - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:49 am: If I was footing the bill for ads and the local stations were running my spot right after or before my opponents I would be talking to somebody. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:54 am: The Rauner ad hitting Quinn on his broken promises is a much more effective one. So were the ads of him with his watch and him with his wife. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:56 am: Brucie’s Van I gave them an ad, about my wagon I was way ahead in every poll The whole race was kinda draggin And I said this old van’ll get me to my goal Like my watch it is cheap, but nice My kids claimed that it gave them lice It’ll take me to the Mansion, this van Or, as they call it, my garbage can And that’s alright with me In the ad, I have the face of an angel I have a smile that goes from ear to ear I chuckled twice to show folks it was fun Somehow that ad lost votes, I fear Like my jacket it is cheap, but nice My kids claimed it wasn’t worth the price It’ll take me to the Mansion, this van Or, as they call it, my garbage can And that’s alright with me After a week on the air, there was A Quinn ad that used my van badly It told everyone that I was a fake Now it’s a shame I can’t run this ad gladly Like my image it is cheap, but nice But that ad, I sorry it ever ran twice I’ll have to put out another ad Hopefully one that isn’t as bad As that all right with me - Rod - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:03 am: For a long time in this campaign Quinn used a class war strategy against Rauner, as Rich pointed out Rauner’s negative polling indicators started growing and Quinn’s remained flat. It seems that Rauner’s people are trying to reduce the negative numbers with the van ad, by arguing Rauner may be a millionaire but a frugal one. Quinn’s response ad cut that concept up pretty bad, effectively portraying Rauner as selectively frugal and overall decadent. Since I would much prefer Quinn to Rauner as Governor this is a fortunate turn of events for lucky Pat. Overall this campaign has totally not addressed foundational questions of revenue and expenditures. Rauner’s theory hinges on growth with lower taxes and as Rich and so many others have pointed out is highly unrealistic, Quinn when he rarely talks about this fundamental problem acts as if the Supreme Court ruling on his pension plan did not exist and he can still right the ship by reducing benefits to retired state workers. The people of Illinois are unfortunately getting what they want from both candidates a promise things will get better without any cost to themselves or their dependents. - A guy... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:05 am: These messages are still going through a testing stage beyond the test stage they go through to get aired in the first place. The themes one side will have over the other will be the ones that carry the day at the end. Unfortunately, that means the negative ads are going to be the ones that resonate the most. Like usual. Government waste is a big one. My own thought is that Corruption and other issues will make people forget about vans and lawn mowers in a few weeks. Time, as always, will tell. - Norseman - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:05 am: I’d love to see both van ads together for amusement purposes. Haven’t been that lucky. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:07 am: ==Rauner will be a much better Governor in bringing about some much needed reforms== That’s a nice slogan but has absolutely no meaning. And I also don’t consider Rauner to be “much better” Governor material considering his complete ignorance of the state budget. He’s demonstrated that ignorance time and again. His “plan” would make things even worse than they are now. - Streator Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:07 am: The advantage of having a garbage can van is that when you’re hauling bags of money to the bank, nobody would suspect there’s anything of value in such a beater. Probably why Bruce kept it around for 20 years. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:13 am: A Guy, we’re way past “testing” messages. The “Regular Joe” bit is bedrock strategy, first thing out of the the box with the cheap watch and Carharrt. It’s just not believable. - A guy... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:32 am: wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:13 am: A Guy, we’re way past “testing” messages.=== No we aren’t. I agree with the rest of what you said. - Percival - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:38 am: Michael Bloomberg never tried to come across falsely as regular Joe in running for NYC mayor. He was rich, never denied it, and even said it was why people should vote for him, as he obviously knew what he was doing. A lesson there. - Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:54 am: == That’s a nice slogan but has absolutely no meaning. == People will always “hope” for “change”. That alone has great meaning and importance to many who have been struggling in recent years. - A guy... - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 12:02 pm: Perci, no lesson there. NYC has always been a lot different. Huge Democratic populations electing GOP Mayors there after the city was considered “ungovernable” after the great David Dinkins. There’s no lesson there no matter how hard you look for one. Bloomberg ran as if he was “above it all”. A lot of New Yorkers feel exactly the same way. At least enough to elect him. - Gooner - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 1:17 pm: “Vote for me because I’m a successful businessman, and by the way, even though you should vote for me because I’m so successful, I have this really old van so you and I are just the same.” Who thought that was consistent? Who thought it might work? Rauner is a guy who has made a ton of money, and spends money on things like wine that people with a ton of money spend money on. The idea that people who are going to be against him because he’s rich (and there certainly are some) will support him because of a watch or a van is ridiculous. It just makes him look like he’s pandering. It is like Quinn’s minimum wage stunt. It doesn’t matter when everybody knows you can afford to do better. The only real impact of those stunts is to take people like me who are OK with a rich guy and make him seem dishonest. Rauner needs to clean house. Whoever thought up that ad should be replaced. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 2:08 pm: Minimum wage increase looks like something whose time has come. Bad idea to be on the wrong side of something like that if you’re a politico - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 2:08 pm: Minimum wage increase looks like something whose time has come. Bad idea to be on the wrong side of something like that if you’re a politico - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 2:38 pm: Rauner spending millions to make the election about who is a regular guy… Seems like an odd way to spend money. But if people vote for him they will be saying, “I’d rather be lied to than to vote for Pat Quinn.” - Living in Machiaville - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:47 pm: Quinn’s van ad is a home run. Illustrates how absurd Rauner’s van ad really is. Rauner has lost the message war for now. He better get back on track reminding voters that Quinn is a terrible leader and the state’s on the wrong track and Rauner is the only one who can save it (us). - D.P.Gumby - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:25 pm: On the Roosevelts last night it was noted that TR was liked despite his Harvard/Eastern accent and language by the workers and regular folk because they realized that he was himself and never tried to be anything else. He talked to them just as they were and just as he was and they could tell he was real. That ain’t Brucie! and it is Quinn. - Wally - Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:09 pm: And on cue, more news today about the anti-violence scandal and BR rips Quinn on IDOT. Keep it up and pound away on the pathetic jobs situation in this state! Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.