IL-12 now rated “pure tossup” by Rothenberg
Wednesday, Sep 24, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Rothenberg Political Report…
Illinois’ 12th District. Neither Mike Bost (R) or Rep. Bill Enyart (D) are lighting the Downstate district on fire, but one of them has to win in November. Democrats have been attacking Bost with ads that include his fiery tirade on the state House floor, but the Republican is still standing and may even be leading in the race. This is a competitive district where Gov. Pat Quinn (D) is going to get crushed by Bruce Rauner (R) at the top of the ticket and Enyart just hasn’t done the work that some of his freshman colleagues have done to put himself in a stronger re-election position. We’re changing our rating from Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic to Pure Toss-Up.
Quinn isn’t gonna get “crushed” in the western end of that district, but I don’t really dispute the rating change.
Discuss.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 5:27 pm:
Enyart’s Crew is doing all it can to keep Bost in this race.
Enyart needs to keep the heat on defining Bost.
Bost needs to keep the narrative framing Enyart more in tune with national Democratic ignorance of the local issues.
Less Pelosi, more Scott AFB
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 6:49 pm:
If Rauner keeps shooting himself in the foot . . . . Honestly when I saw “Pure Tossup”, I thought for a second they were moving the rating from “Lean Republican.” Perhaps the Dems need to pivot to tying Bost with the Beltway right. After all, especially since DeMint took over Heritage, it’s pretty easy to connect with hard-right hotheadedness.
- Old Sarge - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 7:27 pm:
Enyart will probably take St. Clair County, but the rest of the District will, in my opinion, go to Bost. The Governor has gone out of his way to really aggravate people in what was a safe Democratic district. That is no longer the case.
- AnnaMan - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 7:35 pm:
I think the reason this is going to be so close is because neither candidate is really resonating well with voters in the district.
People don’t seem to really care much about either candidate. If Enyart can get his base out in the northern part of the district, he wins. If turnout is low, Bost wins easily.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 7:46 pm:
===Enyart will probably take St. Clair County, but===
St. Clair is 40 percent of the district’s voters, man. Then there’s Madison, which is another 15 percent of the district.
Counting counties is a dangerous proposition. Didn’t work for Bil Brady, either.
- Winning with Sheen - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 7:53 pm:
Dems don’t care because they are waiting for Costello II….. Republicans outside the Metroeast will vote Bost but Bost has done nothing to get the Republican votes needed in the Metroeast to win.
Prediction…. Enyart squeezes it out.
- Rauner'sroboticpollingfirm - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:26 pm:
Enyart will take St. Clair county but likely not by as much as Costello or Enyart did two years ago. It’s off presidenitial year and the numbers out of E. STL, will be lower. But as early voting starts look so south St. Clair - areas repesented by Costello II and Luechtefeld as indicators. If Clayborne’s district has depressed turnout - Enyart is in a world of hurt. Plus w/ some of the voter roll purges, it’ll be tougher to create shenanigans. Yes we’re looking at you Cairo and your history of more voters than population.
End of the day - this baby is tight and Bost eeks out the 550 vote victory.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:33 pm:
===your history of more voters than population===
If more people actually vote than live there, that’s a very real problem. If the election board is too poor to purge their rolls, that’s less of an actual problem. And that’s what happened.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:09 pm:
My Spidey-sense is still telling me Bost is going to win.
- Madison - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:32 pm:
Bost taking St.Clair?
Gosh not on the ground there but even if Bost breaks even in Madison and St.Clair the rout is on.
I think Bost can win it, but keeping it is another matter.
This is not an ordinary off year election folks.
- Exit 59 - Thursday, Sep 25, 14 @ 8:48 am:
Teachers need to get out the vote and vote Quinn. Teachers that have voted for Bost before, may continue that vote. If teachers get out and vote, Enyart needs to win the votes of the rest of the teachers. Can’t really prove that theory, but…make sense?