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Illinois Review, other media win appeal

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Thomas More Society…

Yesterday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit issued its decision to dismiss the appeal brought by Satkar Hospitality Inc. against Illinois Review, a conservative news blog. In 2011, Satkar sued Illinois Review for defamation. The U.S. District Court dismissed the lawsuit, but Satkar appealed the decision, and in May, 2013, Thomas More Society brought oral arguments in defense of Illinois Review before the Seventh Circuit.

“We’re very pleased that this blatant attempt to silence aggressive political reporting has been finally rejected by the courts,” said Peter Breen, Thomas More Society vice president and senior counsel. “Illinois Review has a First Amendment right to speak out on controversial issues, and frivolous lawsuits should not be permitted to shut down their free speech.”

In April, 2009, Illinois Review published documents of public record showing that former Illinois State Rep. Paul Froehlich sought campaign contributions from individuals who won property tax relief with his assistance. After the story ran, the Cook County Board of Review reversed the tax breaks. Satkar Hospitality, Inc., was one of the companies that Illinois Review reported as having donated to Froehlich’s campaign and later winning a property-tax appeal.

Satkar then sued Illinois Review, along with its editor, Fran Eaton, and publisher, Dennis LaComb, for defamation. After extensive briefing, the District Court dismissed the lawsuit against Illinois Review, Eaton, and LaComb on the basis of the Illinois Citizen Participation Act, which protects those engaged in First Amendment-protected speech from frivolous lawsuits. Satkar filed a late notice of appeal, with permission of the District Court.

Yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit rejected the appeal and ended the case, holding that Satkar had no good reason to file a late appeal and should not have been given permission to do so by the District Court.

Satkar Hospitality, Inc., and co-plaintiffs Sharad K. Dani, and Harish Dani, had also sued the Cook County Board of Review, Fox Television Stations, Inc., Fox Chicago News, News Corp., and Fox Television Holdings, Inc., along with multiple individuals from those entities.

“We have laws in this country that protect journalists and affirm the public’s ‘right to know’,” Breen added. “Our courts don’t want to waste time or taxpayer money on whiplash action that is thrown as a cover-up for practices of questionable legality.”

The decision is here. Good job by the lawyers, and good on the IR folks for standing their ground.

And, by the way, that Illinois Citizen Participation Act is a great thing.

…Adding… I probably shouldn’t have said the law was “great.” I’d like to see punitive damage awards here. Frivolous, SLAPP lawsuits are in essence libelous. There should be much steeper penalties for this stuff.

  13 Comments      


YouGov poll has Rauner ahead by 3 points

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An online poll from YouGov conducted for the New York Times and CBS News has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-41. Without “leaners” it’s a 41-37 Rauner lead.

Quinn is getting 77 percent of Democrats compared to Rauner’s 84 percent of Republicans. Independents go Rauner’s way 55-26, which ain’t good at all for the guv.

Just 66 percent of African-Americans (who tend to break late) say they’re with Quinn, compared to 14 percent who are with (12 percent) or leaning toward Rauner. That’s good news for Rauner, of course.

I dunno about these YouGov polls, but the NYT seems to dig them, so there you go.

  23 Comments      


Quinn one for eight

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Thursday afternoon, Gov. Pat Quinn attended practice for the WNBA’s Chicago Sky.

While there, he participated in a short shootaround, where he tried to show off his basketball skills. It didn’t go very well.

* Video

…Adding… He does make a couple in a row on a Facebook video, however.

  25 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Doug Finke reports that two state lawmakers want police to wear “body cams”

Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, D-Peoria, and Sen. William Haine, D-Alton, said that developments in Ferguson, Missouri, have given new impetus to the legislation that Gordon-Booth said has been in the works for months.

Under the bill, people convicted of criminal or traffic offenses would pay an extra $6 surcharge.

The estimated $4 million to $6 million a year the surcharge would raise would be split between grants for police cameras and funding for the Illinois Law Enforcement Training and Standards Board.

* AP

Sen. Bill Haine, an Alton Democrat who also is sponsoring the bill, said the legislation will “remove controversies and remove doubt on what’s going on with a lawful arrest.”

Several law enforcement groups attended the news conference in support of the bill, including the Illinois Sherriff’s Association, the Illinois Association of Chiefs of Police, the Illinois Fraternal Order of Police and the Illinois State’s Attorneys Association. So did the NAACP.

Brian Towne, president of the state’s attorney’s association, said the bill would help in the review of evidence in issuing charges and in avoiding frivolous lawsuits.

…Adding… Our good friends at BlueRoomStream.com have posted the video from today’s presser here.

* The Question: Do you support this concept? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


online survey

  49 Comments      


Barickman wants subpoena enforced against Irving

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Jason Barickman sent a letter yesterday to the attorney general requesting that a Legislative Audit Commission subpoena be enforced against a potential witness…

Dear Attorney General Madigan,

It is with appreciation that we begin the next phase of your representation of the Legislative Audit Commission and its audit of the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative (NRI.)

I appreciate your staff’s research, professionalism and participation in multiple, lengthy conference calls with Representative Mautino and myself, and our Chief Counsels. Your assistance has already been helpful to our efforts to fulfill our statutory obligation under the Legislative Audit Commission Act and ensure the timely production of documents related to the NRI audit, especially in light of our upcoming hearing(s).

As you are aware, the Legislative Audit Commission unanimously approved using subpoena powers, as provided by law, to obtain information related to the NRI audit. In accordance with a specific request from the United States Attorney investigating the program, the Commission has delayed hearing from individual witnesses until October 8, 2014.

However, the U.S. Attorney specifically did not request any delay in information gathering and we have proceeded appropriately.

As of today, Dr. Toni Irving has not complied with the subpoena issued by the Legislative Audit Commission and served upon her attorney John King on June 27, 2014. Despite a show of significant patience by the Legislative Audit Commission, only a small portion of the information requested of Dr. Irving has been produced, and broad-based claims of attorney-client privilege claims have been raised by the Office of the Governor through Dr. Irving’s attorney.

I would like to begin the process of enforcing the subpoena and respectfully request that your office immediately take the necessary steps to compel enforcement of the subpoena in a court of law. It is critical that the court consider this action in an expeditious manner, so as to ensure the LAC an opportunity to review any documents prior to our scheduled October 8, 2014 hearing. Further, this enforcement action is necessary to preserve the integrity of the LAC’s subpoena request and in support of the legal obligation’s LAC members have in reviewing the NRI audit. It is worth noting that our initial subpoena was issued well over two months ago. While we have made multiple and reasonable accommodations of Ms. Irving’s continued request of more time to comply with our subpoena as it relates to her production of documents, there are legitimate concerns that any further delays will significantly jeopardize the LAC’s ability to fulfill our legal obligation to review the NRI audit.

In order to assist you and to expedite this process, Jane Stricklin, Executive Director of the LAC, and the Chief Counsels for the four caucuses are preparing to deliver you a detailed timeline of the facts leading up to this request. A summarized timeline is as follows:

    · On May 6, 2014, the LAC adopted a motion to utilize subpoena powers by a vote of 10 -1.

    · On June 23, 2014, the subcommittee created by the May 6 motion, by unanimous vote, agreed to issue subpoenas to compel testimony and production of documents by the following individuals: Ms. Barbara Shaw, Dr. Toni Irving, Mr. Jack Lavin, Mr. Malcolm Weems, Mr. Warren Ribley, Mr. Andy Ross, and Mr. William (“Billy”) Ocasio.

    · On July 16, 2014, the LAC convened a hearing where the subpoenaed individuals were to testify and produce documents. Due to a request from the US Attorneys’ Office, no testimony was taken. As to production of documents, all of the subpoenaed individuals except for Dr. Toni Irving and Barbara Shaw, either provided documents in his/her possession or written confirmation that he/she has no documents in his/her possession within a few days after the hearing. The attorneys for Dr. Irving and Barbara Shaw indicated that they needed some time to properly respond to the subpoena and were given 21 days to comply. Barbara Shaw’s attorney provided the subpoenaed documents on August 8, 2014. Dr. Irving’s attorney, Jon King, indicated that Dr. Irving is in possession of over 100,000 emails from her time in state service that would need to be reviewed for responsiveness.

    · On August 6, 2014, Dr. Irving’s attorney, Jon King, requested an extension of time. After a conference call with the Co-Chairs of the LAC, Mr. King agreed to provide a letter of explanation of the steps taken with regard to reviewing the emails. As a result of this conversation, the time frame for compliance was extended to August 29, 2014.

    · On August 14, 2014, attorney Jon King provided the letter of explanation requested in the August 6, 2014 conference call. That letter summarized that Ms. Irving had 107,892 emails and attachments. Of those, Mr. King believes at least 7,366 were potentially responsive, although as many as 1,394 may be protected by attorney-client privilege claims being made by the Office of the Governor.

    · On August 27, 2014, Mr. King communicated that he would need additional time and requested an extension until September 9, 2014. That request was discussed in a conference call with Mr. King and the Co-Chairs on August 28, 2014. Mr. King was admonished that he needed to produce at least some documents immediately and that the Co-Chairs did not agree to any further extensions.

    · On September 2, 2014, 177 documents were received by the LAC.

    · On September 9, 2014, Mr. King sent a communication to Ms. Stricklin indicating that roughly 2,000 emails had been reviewed and that approximately 951 emails were responsive to the subpoena and were immediately being transmitted to the LAC. We have confidence that those emails have been (or will be promptly) received by the LAC.

Throughout the process, Mr. King has indicated that he has been communicating with Mr. John Schomberg, counsel for the Governor, who is asserting attorney-client privilege on a subset of these documents. It is my understanding that Ms. Stricklin and the Chief Counsels will coordinate any efforts with you to solicit unknown information related to these attorney-client privilege claims.

From the communications we have already had with your staff, it is my understanding that no further action must be taken by the LAC to initiate this enforcement action. In fact, the May 6, 2014, subpoena motion specifically authorized the Commission to “summon and compel” the “production of documents”. Further, Ms. Irving’s subpoena instructed her as follows: “You are commanded also to bring all relevant documents in your possession or control…” to the hearings held on July 16, 2014 and July 17, 2014, or be subjected “to punishment as provided by the Illinois Constitution and Section 4 of the Legislative Audit Commission Act”. Regardless, if necessary, I will request a special meeting of the LAC to consider whether to enforce the subpoena. Ms. Stricklin has informed us that such a meeting could be convened on 24 hours’ notice.

Our next hearing is scheduled for October 8, 2014. Obtaining non-privileged documents promptly is crucial to our ability to prepare for this hearing. Therefore, we need to expeditiously take the steps necessary to obtain these documents from Dr. Irving and to resolve any claims of privilege by the Governor’s Office.

Your immediate assistance in this process is requested.
Very Truly Yours,

Jason A. Barickman
State Senator
Co-Chairman, Legislative Audit Commission

  20 Comments      


Rauner targeting moderate suburban women on cable TV

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’ve been asking the Rauner campaign the past few days for a copy of this ad, which is being targeted to suburban women on cable TV. They never sent it.

Illinois Review recorded it off a TV, and the conservatives over there ain’t happy with Rauner for so openly “being pro-abortion and pro-gay marriage”

The ad, airing on [cable] television only, is titled “Why Are You Voting for Bruce Rauner for Governor.” It opens with Marjorie Shapiro, who is identified in other videos on the Rauner website as a “pro-choice independent.”

Shapiro states:

    “Bruce doesn’t have a social agenda. He’s pro-choice and will leave the marriage equality law alone.”

Rauner has been recorded on several occasions saying he’s personally pro-life, but believes in a “woman’s right to choose.” He has also been quoted as saying he would repeal the same-sex marriage law if he were governor. The conflicting statements, coupled with the ambiguous and situational definition of “no social agenda” has many conservative Republicans questioning their support for Rauner.

* Watch

* Script…

Male announcer: Why are you voting for Bruce Rauner for governor?

Caucasian woman: Bruce doesn’t have a social agenda. He’s pro-choice and he’ll leave the marriage equality law alone.

African-American woman: Bruce will fight for good schools for all of our children, no matter where they live, no matter what the power brokers say.

Latina: We need a clean break from the Blagojevich-Quinn machine.

African-American woman: It’s time for a change.

Female announcer: Bruce Rauner, shake up Springfield, bring back Illinois.

It’s actually a pretty well crafted ad, but, needless to say, it ain’t gonna be running in Downstate markets.

  73 Comments      


Bipartisan backing for anti cost-shift resolution

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An e-mail from Rep. Dave McSweeney…

I just filed House Resolution 1267 (attached below) with 34 total sponsors. The resolution strongly opposes the local pension cost shift. The proposal has broad bipartisan support and is supported by the IEA. You can contact Will Lovett from the IEA if you want to get a comment from them.

The sponsors believe that a cost shift is unfair and would result in a massive increase in property taxes and damaging cuts to education.

Last year, Speaker Madigan made it clear that the pension cost shift is a top priority. Some of us have heard rumblings that the cost shift could come back as part of a modified education formula (eg, SB 16) comprehensive bill. Also, if SB 1 is declared unconstitutional, I believe that it’s likely that the Speaker will push the cost shift again.

We just began discussions on this effort last Friday afternoon and expect to get a meaningful number of additional members to go on record against the cost shift by signing on to the resolution.

Below is the current sponsorship team.

    McSweeney (Chief Sponsor)

    Lead Co-sponsors - Kay, Hoffman, Rosenthal, and Costello

    Co-sponsors - Franks, Sullivan, Phelps, Hatcher, Brauer, Moffitt, Meier, Poe, Tryon, Cabello, Davidsmeyer, Hays, Mitchell, Reis, Halbrook, Sosnowski, Tracy, Bost, Hammond, Brown, Harms, Reboletti, Sandack, Wheeler, Verschoore, Demmer, McAuliffe, Pritchard, Cavaletto

* The “therefore, be it resolved” line

(W)e state our belief that an educational pension cost shift is financially wrong and would only serve to shift pension burdens from the State to the status of an unfunded mandate

Discuss.

  44 Comments      


Evelyn Sanguinetti debate snippets

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m still not sure who, if anyone, “won” the Tribune editorial board debate. But I’m pretty sure who lost. This was posted a few minutes ago by the Quinn campaign

  111 Comments      


I find this difficult to believe

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For the past ten days or so, the DCCC has been trying to get reporters to write about the fact that the NRCC hasn’t yet reserved any TV time in the 10th Congressional District on behalf of their candidate Bob Dold.

The following is a backgrounder from a Dem operative that I received on September 5th, after the DCCC finally convinced WaPo to slip this factoid into a story. The e-mail has been reformatted to match this blog’s posting style…

* Washington Post: The 10 most vulnerable members of the House

    9. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.): Schneider faces former congressman Bob Dold (R), whom he defeated in an extremely tight 2012 race (51-49). It’s expensive to buy air time in this suburban Chicago district. The NRCC has not yet reserved advertising time here, but it says it still intends to spend money.

* What the NRCC said in May about what they were going to reserve

    IL-10: $800,000 (Chicago broadcast and cable) Brad Schneider

* Boehner in August

    U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, predicted Monday that come November, Illinois Republicans will have the most successful year they’ve had in the Land of Lincoln in more than two decades.

* NRCC last week

    AP: “Prill singled out the Dold-Schneider race as a “huge pickup opportunity” for Republicans. Dold lost to Schneider in the independent-leaning district by about one percentage point in 2012.”

* What they have actually reserved…

    $0

* After growing weary of this line of pursuit, I eventually reached out to Katie Prill at the NRCC. Here’s her response…

Hey Rich -

You are about the 10th reporter who has reached out about this. I am guessing [redacted staff name because it’s incorrect] is still pushing this ridiculous story.

Anyway, our ad buy is coming. The DCCC doesn’t even go up here until the end of October. We will be playing in this race and a buy will be placed soon.

Our executive director was Mark Kirks’ chief when he was in this district so obviously this race and our investment here is top priority. Are you planning on posting on this or just curious?

The Dems are trying to make something out of nothing. Kind of like Brad’s “small business career.”

Katie

* Indeed, the DCCC isn’t planning to go up until October 21st

Illinois’ 10th District: $800,000 on Chicago broadcast and cable from Oct. 21 to Oct. 27 to defend Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider.

So, I let it drop.

* Yesterday, the same Dem operative sent me another e-mail…

Saw you posted about the new poll out in IL-10 showing Brad leading Bob Dold by 5 points. A few additional points.

    · The NRCC said in May it would place an $800,000 ad reservation for Mr. Dold, but the Washington Post reported Friday they have not followed through.

    · As was reported in the article you cited, outside groups have already spent some $1.6 million on TV for Mr. Dold, and have not moved the needle.

    · Now, there signs another outside group is getting cold feet about Mr Dold. Just recently the Congressional Leadership Fund previously said that it would spend on behalf of Mr. Dold, but their newly released spending plans, do not list Dold at all.

* I sent the operative Ms. Prill’s e-mail. His response…

The longer they wait the harder it is to buy in Chicago.

That’s true, too, particularly with the governor’s race we’re having.

But I just can’t believe that the national Republicans are gonna take a pass on this race. Schneider won by a mere 3,326 votes two years ago during a huge Democratic wave. There isn’t going to be a Democratic wave this year.

In other words, I’m posting this to get the DCCC off my back.

  11 Comments      


Today’s number: 9 percent

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ugh

Only 9 percent of chief financial officers surveyed in Chicago say they plan to add new jobs to their companies in the next 6 months, according to a report released Thursday by staffing firm Robert Half.

That means most — 79 percent of area finance executives surveyed — will only be adding staff to fill vacated positions, according to the firm’s “Chicago Professional Employment Forecast” report.

This market for new jobs falls short of cities such as Houston, where 24 percent of CFOs said their companies planned to fill new positions over the next half year. In Denver, 19 percent of CFOs said they have plans to create new jobs over the fall and into the winter months of 2015. Other cities, such as Salt Lake City, Ut. Des Moines, Ia., and the San Francisco Bay area also reported plans to ramp up job creation by more than 10 percent.

  15 Comments      


Nothing, nothing, nothing… huh?

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rauner hasn’t wanted many debates, so no surprise here

Republican Bruce Rauner’s campaign said Wednesday that the candidate for governor would not accept an invitation from The State Journal-Register and WICS-TV Channel 20 for a live debate in Springfield with Gov. Pat Quinn.

Quinn’s campaign had said last week that the Democratic governor would participate if Rauner agreed to take part.

* No way were the firefighters gonna sit this one out or be with Rauner

Gov. Pat Quinn [this week] visited a downtown fire station to receive the endorsement of the Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois, which has 15,000 members across the state, including 5,000 in Chicago.

Union President Pat Devaney said it was an “easy” choice between Quinn and Rauner, saying it’s clear the Democratic governor would fight for working people while Rauner takes stances that would hurt them, such as previous statements that he would support eliminating the minimum wage.

* The only surprise about this is that the state police commanders had never endorsed in a governor’s race before

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner announced today that he received the endorsement of the Illinois State Police Command Officers Association (ISPCOA).

“I have tremendous admiration for every member of our state police force. They are heroes who are willing to risk their safety for all of us, and they deserve the best in return,” Rauner said. “I’m humbled and grateful to have the support of the State Police’s top leaders with the endorsement of Illinois’ Police Command Officers.”

“Our Association strongly supports your effort to establish term limits for elected leaders in our state and sincerely appreciates your support of law enforcement and public safety,” ISCPOA President James Alexander wrote in the endorsement letter. “We enthusiastically support your candidacy.”

* But check out this headline

Could State Rep. Jeanne Ives be the first IL female Governor? Watch Rep. Ives w/Berkowitz on Cable/Web and you decide

Watch

  40 Comments      


Portman says he doesn’t know what SGOPs will do about Oberweis

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You would think that US Sen. Rob Portman, the vice chairman for finance of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, would have at least passing knowledge of a race involving the Senate’s second highest ranking Democrat

Portman was asked whether the committee would give Oberweis financial help or other assistance in his race. He also was asked to gauge Oberweis’ chances.

He said: “I don’t know what the NRSC decision will be there. I have been told that that (Illinois) race has closed somewhat. It’s a single-digit race based on some polling, but I just don’t know enough about it.”

Does he expect the committee to help Oberweis?

“I don’t know,” Portman replied. “I mean, frankly the playing field (for Republicans) is already very broad. I don’t think people would have been expected to be talking about Minnesota and New Hampshire and Virginia and Oregon, and we are, so the playing field is already quite broad.”

Thoughts?

  26 Comments      


Rauner, Quinn both refuse to take the bait

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bruce Rauner refused to throw Jim Bruner under the bus yesterday. As you’ll recall, a union-backed group tried to claim earlier yesterday - without proof - that Bruner was somehow involved in pay to play with Bill Cellini. But it was a major stretch, and to his credit, Rauner refused to back off

Rauner and Christie later Wednesday appeared at the Brickhouse Grill & Pub in downtown Springfield. Asked about Bruner’s involvement in the Republican Governors Association event, Rauner said, “I don’t know the facts of what you’re describing. We have come from several fundraisers here in Springfield, and (I) was honored to have Jim Bruner be part-leader of that process.”

* Also yesterday. Rauner demanded that Gov. Pat Quinn order his staff not to have any contact with Jack Lavin, who hasn’t been accused of any wrongdoing and made it through the Blagojevich administration untainted by that train wreck. Quinn refused to take the bait

Quinn’s campaign said the governor has no reason to distance himself or his administration from Lavin.

“There is no disassociation necessary,” Quinn campaign spokeswoman Izabela Miltko said. “Mr. Lavin has not worked for the state for more than a year.

“And we don’t agree with Mr. Rauner’s ‘demonizing’ approach when it comes to campaigning. Whether it’s teachers, public employees or former state workers who have not been accused of any wrongdoing, Rauner will bully and smear anyone in his way,” she said.

Good for both candidates.

  7 Comments      


Democratic poll: Quinn leads Rauner and Grimm 43-40-5

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Democratic Governors Association is touting a new poll showing Gov. Quinn actually leading Bruce Rauner. Here’s the polling memo from Global Strategy Group, which handled the polling for NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s campaign…

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn Leads in Re-election Race
Bruce Rauner’s lack of appeal to Democratic and Independent voters sinks his prospects

Incumbent Pat Quinn leads Republican challenger Bruce Rauner in the race for Illinois Governor, according to a recent statewide survey of likely voters conducted by Global Strategy Group. Democratic voters are consolidating behind Quinn and forming increasingly negative views of Rauner, severely limiting the Republican’s chances of victory in the Democratic-leaning state.

Key findings include:

    • Quinn has taken the lead over Rauner. Quinn leads the race with 43% of the vote compared to 40% for Rauner and 5% for Libertarian Chad Grimm.

    • Rauner’s popularity is sinking. Rauner is 13 points better known now (72% familiar) than in June (59%), but his favorability has held steady while his negative ratings have shot up by 13 points (34% fav/26% unfav to 33% fav/39% unfav). Rauner has become an unpalatable choice for the state’s Democrats and an increasingly divisive figure among Independents over the course of the campaign. As he has become better known, Rauner’s negative ratings have increased by 20 points among Democrats (16% fav/43% unfav to 9% fav/63% unfav) and by 13 among Independents (35% fav/21% unfav to 35% fav/34% unfav) with no increase in his positive ratings.

    • Democratic support for Quinn leaves Rauner with no clear path to victory. In an electorate where nearly half of voters (48%) identify as Democrats and just over one-third are self-described Republicans (35%), Quinn has strong odds of holding on to the seat as long as he can consolidate his party’s voters. Quinn enjoys the support of 81% of Democrats, matching Republican consolidation behind Rauner (83%). Self-described conservatives are the only ideological segment of the electorate that afford Rauner an advantage in the race, while Quinn leads among moderate voters (40% Quinn/37% Rauner) and by a double-digit margin among non-conservative Independents (42% Quinn/31% Rauner).

The bottom line is this: The more Democratic and Independent voters hear about Bruce Rauner, the less appealing he becomes to them. Rauner’s sinking popularity among these voters demonstrates that advertising from Democratic groups is successfully defining Rauner negatively and making Rauner’s uphill task to overcome the state’s Democratic lean all the more difficult. Pat Quinn’s position has been strengthened significantly two months out from the election as Rauner has become an unappealing choice to all but the furthest-right voters in the electorate and Democrats are consolidating solidly behind Quinn.

That’s a large number for self-identified Democrats, but not outside the realm of possibility (Rasmussen had it at 44 in July, as did 2010 exit polling). This is a “D” state. Also, keep in mind that “non-conservative Independents” is a much smaller group than conservative independents.

* Democratic-sponsored polls have lately shown this to be a much closer race than all other polls done in Illinois. For instance

Sneed hears that Gov. Pat Quinn just received his latest internal poll, which has the gubernatorial election locked in a virtual tie.

The poll of 600 people, taken by Quinn’s pollster Mark Mellman of the Mellman Group from July 27 to 29, shows Quinn at 38 percent, GOP candidate Bruce Rauner at 39 percent and 23 percent of voters undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

…Adding… Assuming for the moment that these two polls are within reasonable distance of accuracy, then it truly repudiates Rauner’s summertime strategy of spending little money on TV and not responding to either the union-backed ads or Quinn’s ads.

If Rauner ends up losing this race, his post-primary “go light” strategy will be to blame. Most figured he’d spend a fortune early on in an attempt to bury Quinn with a double-digit lead by Labor Day and dry up the governor’s money heading into the fall. That didn’t happen. And whatever poll you choose to believe now, the race has undoubtedly tightened to single digits. That one’s on Rauner.

  80 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and crosstabs

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Sep 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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