Madigan declares victory
Wednesday, Nov 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As I told subscribers earlier today, Bruce Rauner funded two campaigns, his own and the House Republican effort. He went one for two. Despite all the cash, all the outside help (including from Dan Proft’s Super PAC), it appears that Speaker Madigan did not lose a single seat. From Illinois Public Radio…
With Bruce Rauner’s win, Illinois Republicans have something to celebrate. But they failed to make gains in the General Assembly, which could have big repercussions for Rauner down the line. […]
Rauner had tried to help Republicans make dents in Democrats’ power hold on the General Assembly — contributing money to races, and to the state party.
It didn’t work.
House Republicans failed to gain even a single seat. Which means House Speaker Michael Madigan will continue to preside over a bare minimum super-majority.
Democrats in the Senate lost one member — incumbent Mike Jacobs, of the Quad Cities. But they still have 39 of the Senate’s 59 seats.
* Tribune last night…
The suburban battlegrounds featured Democratic Rep. Katherine Cloonen of Kankakee in a tight race against Republican Glenn Nixon of Bourbonnais; Democratic Rep. Carol Sente of Vernon Hills who was holding a strong lead when Republican Leslie Munger of Lincolnshire conceded Tuesday night; and Democratic Rep. Scott Drury of Highwood held off Republican Mark Neerhof of Lake Forest, who conceded.
In Lake County, Democratic freshman Rep. Sam Yingling of Grayslake appeared to beat Republican Rod Drobinski of Wauconda, who conceded.
In DuPage County, freshman Democratic Rep. Deb Conroy of Villa Park was leading Heidi Holan of Glen Ellyn, and Democratic Rep. Martin Moylan of Des Plaines was leading Republican Mel Thillens of Park Ridge. […]
In western Illinois, Democratic Rep. Mike Smiddy of Hillsdale faced Republican Jim Wozniak of East Moline. In central Illinois, Democratic Rep. Sue Scherer of Decatur faced Republican Mike Bell of Edinburg.
The only one kinda-sorta race in doubt right now appears to be Cloonen. But the HDems are confident they have enough provisionals to win it.
- Snucka - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:10 am:
Posted this on the wrong thread…
I believe that Madigan and Cullerton will use the referenda votes to argue that, while Mr. Rauner won the race for governor, the people are still in favor of Democratic policies. This will be a major argument in favor of the legislature setting the agenda.
Interestingly, I don’t recall Rauner ever actually coming out against any of those ballot questions.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:13 am:
I guess the Carhartt doesn’t come with coat tails.
- Toure's Latte - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:15 am:
That’s a large amount of egg on Jim Durkin’s face. Not good to trip and fall, and get nowhere in a red wave.
- Toure's Latte - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:18 am:
Radogno too, for that matter, failed. She had no race, where was she? Posting grandkids pictures on Facebook? In two years we’ll give her a lot more time for that.
- Bourbonrich - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:20 am:
Guess we don’t have to worry about the GOP worrying about the lame duck session. I would be surprised if the Dems voted to keep the income tax at 5%. Just wait for the new Governor to craft a budget to present. Of course if the GOP will provide votes then maybe the tax rate legislation will get voted on.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:22 am:
Again, I think Rauner’’s challenge will be to get Republicans to make tough votes on budget matters. The arithmetic is unforgiving.
- walker - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:22 am:
Even better sailing for Captain Madigan than in previous red tides.
He made his usual tacks — run against the Speaker himself or the Governor’s tax if you must, to win in your districts.
It will take a lot more time for the House Repubs to get up to speed. Rauner’s support is a start.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:24 am:
The reality of this situation is “simple”
Rauner’s Crew was for Rauner, can’t fault them one bit. The idea of “bringing others along” was the farce to get all the bodies and resources to carry water, thinking “both” will benefit.
The cake Rauner baked and won with is based on statewide pluralities and margins. Losing a House seat by 100 votes is awful for the HGOP, but bakes into a cake of 118 ingredients perfectly.
Macro-Micro…result is the “same” in the micro, the candidate loses, in the macro, great news for Rauner’s Crew, “mission accomplished”
For a statewide formula, it works, it was never intended to be a two-fer, and “wins” in the micro would have been a bi-product.
- Bill White - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:25 am:
= = It will take a lot more time for the House Repubs to get up to speed. Rauner’s support is a start. = =
Does Bruce Rauner have the patience to engage in a multi-cycle rebuilding process for the IL House GOP?
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:26 am:
If Rauner needs proof that he is a one-off boutique multi-million dollar candidate, here is his proof.
His ideas don’t have public political support. Attempts to implement any of that “shaking” he promised will result in only himself being shaken.
This is a BLUE STATE, Mr. Rauner.
You were smart enough to not rile up the social issue voters, now be smart enough to recognize your other limits.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:27 am:
Rauner’s from day one will be governing by executive action — exactly what the GOP despises from Obama.
I expect Rauner will also force strike and force folks to sign a contact cutting salary and pension benefits if they want their jobs back. Otherwise, folks will be fired. Plain and simple.
Rauner knows, however, that his win is probably a bigger — and more important — win for Madigan.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:34 am:
Rauner’s Crew was for Rauner
What do you mean by that? He wanted to lose millions? It is in his interest to have GOP candidates lose?
He gave millions to your loser GOP candidates, but yet you call him selfish? Nice show of gratitude on your part.
- Secret Square - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:37 am:
An interesting fact regarding legislative control can be seen in this map:
http://www.ncsl.org/?TabId=118
Illinois is now the only state outside of the East and West Coasts in which BOTH legislative houses are still controlled by Democrats.
- northernwatersports - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:47 am:
I woke up in a cold sweat a while back, thinking ‘how bad could it get with a Rauner win?’…then fell back asleep to the wonderful dreams of the future…(think 2016)
Madigan=Supermajority. Cullerton=Supermajority. For 4 years, the General Assembly has voted for the appearance of reform, change and success, with all negative outcomes and votes laid upon Mr. Rauner wearing the jacket for them. The Speaker decides its time to spend more time with his family and grandchildren, hence, Lisa’s time to ride to the rescue is immenent. My money is on the real shake up happening as we run toward 2016.
Although I’m not sure who takes the real reins in the House. Anyone taking wagers?
- Great Caesar's Ghost! - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:51 am:
How about this recipe?
Take 34 General Assembly Republicans who balk at any of Rauner’s initiatives that have anything to do with revenues and help make his governing life miserable;
Add significant campaign dollars to fund the primary election campaigns of legislative candidates that will be more open to Rauner’s plans;
Add a gallon of anger unleashed by that effort that results in interparty squabbles for the remaining two years of his term;
Put it in the oven and bake until 2018.
Open the oven and what do you have? Dan Walker!
- Norseman - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:51 am:
Both chambers are still veto-proof. Rauner has his prize, now we’ll see how he deals with the responsibilities that come with that prize without a lot of friends in the GA.
- Dandydon - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:03 pm:
Doesn’t Glenn Nixon still have a chance in the House 79th. District? If he were to win Madigan would loose his super majority. Only down 24 votes with absentee ballots and provisional ballots to be counted.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:06 pm:
Dandydon, subscribe.
- low level - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:09 pm:
Despite 4 straight years of anti Madigan articles, the voters show they are smarter than the Tribune.
unless Rauner changes his approach, he’ll be in for a long four years.
- Phenonymous - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:17 pm:
You know what they say about counting chickens.
- G'Kar - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:22 pm:
I think it would have been ironic is Madigan lost the super majority because Mautino was defeated. it almost happened!
- Phenonymous - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:22 pm:
…or ducklings.
- Clark Kent - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:24 pm:
All of this talk about Rauner coat tails and his efforts being a farce is just plain stupid. You cannot overcome the math people. The Republicans needed Brady to win last cycle so they could have a hand in redistricting. Mike Madigan’s legacy has been (and will continue to be for the rest of the decade) legislative districts that are bullet-proof for Democrats. In all of these suburban districts the Dems have sliced and diced them to the point where there are only isolated pockets of resistance. You simply cannot overcome the math when the registration advantage becomes that one-sided. I don’t care how much money you throw at it.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:24 pm:
VMan, what’s with the BLUE STATE obsession?
The governor will be a Republican, one of two Senators, and the Congressional delegation will be split 10-8.
The BLUE STATE mantra Is just an excuse for losers. GOP winners don’t buy it.
- Not it - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:29 pm:
I would love to see a total count state wide on the number of votes for a GOP Representative and a Dem Representative, and see if that % is close to the % of the House or not.
- Pothole - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:30 pm:
It would be interesting to see the Quinn/Rauner votes by Legislative District. I wonder how much the map mattered.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:31 pm:
===What do you mean by that? He wanted to lose millions? It is in his interest to have GOP candidates lose?===
If you can read, then you can read I explained it.
===All of this talk about Rauner coat tails and his efforts being a farce is just plain stupid===
If you read and comprehend, I explain the logic, and the district/statewide dynamic that you seem to think I didn’t.
Thanks.
- James Knell - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:36 pm:
Don’t worry. There will be another gazillion dollars to take over the legislative branch next election.
- Hacksaw Jim - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:37 pm:
=== Mike Madigan’s legacy has been (and will continue to be for the rest of the decade) legislative districts that are bullet-proof for Democrats. In all of these suburban districts the Dems have sliced and diced them to the point where there are only isolated pockets of resistance. ===
=== It would be interesting to see the Quinn/Rauner votes by Legislative District. I wonder how much the map mattered. ===
I don’t think you can blame it all on the map. Many of these races were decided by less than 5 points. If you look at many of the precincts in these districts, you can find the democratic state rep candidate and rauner both winning. Its easy to blame the map. Its harder to find quality candidates that can earn the vote of the swing voters that decide these races.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:40 pm:
Bruce Rauner did more for ILGOP than ILGOP did for Rauner.
With results like last night’s, expect a complete ILGOP purge. These guys are total losers, even when given millions.
Rauner’s win and the ILGOP’s loss, put an end to any belief that the Old Guard from the Thompson-Ryan era have any idea to win any election in the Land of Lincoln.
Rauner won with ILGOP blowing through his cash like they were NRI funds through a south Chicago voter precinct.
Before Rauner gets to work on Illinois, perhaps he should begin by cleaning out and getting rid of an utter sham of a political party and replacing it with people who really want to win offices in Illinois.
- Norseman - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:41 pm:
G’Kar, Rauner’s purported vindictive effort to take out Mautino is not going help him with his entreaties to the House Dems. Elephants are not the only ones with long memories.
- Hacksaw Jim - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
=== G’Kar, Rauner’s purported vindictive effort to take out Mautino is not going help him with his entreaties to the House Dems. Elephants are not the only ones with long memories. ===
That race was too close for comfort for Mautino. I don’t think you can blame Rauner for attempting to seize an opportunity.
- low level - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 5:38 pm:
“Illinois is now the only state outside of the East and West Coasts in which BOTH legislative houses are still controlled by Democrats.”
Yes. Perhaps now all the whiners and complainers - the so called “reform progressives” (Judy Erwin types) will appreciate the strong leadership provided by Madigan and Cullerton.
Or maybe not. All I know is, I’m very grateful that a governor elect who said he might “shut down state government”, who said Scott Walker was his ideal gov prototype, has opponents that will try and prevent that nonsense.
- Why Can't We Be Friends? - Sunday, Nov 9, 14 @ 9:10 pm:
“Radogno too, for that matter, failed. She had no race, where was she? Posting grandkids pictures on Facebook? In two years we’ll give her a lot more time for that.”
I’d like to clarify that Leader Radogno picked up a seat (Neal Andersen in Quad Cities) under a Democrat gerrymandered map. Not to mention the fact that she is the most compassionate, human, politician in the Illinois General Assembly. Perhaps our state would be far better off if more politicians cared about their families and grandbabies as much as Senator Radogno did (adorable babies, by the way). Kudos to a strong, female leader who knows the meaning of balance between life and work. Also, if anyone has a problem with her private Facebook posts, he/she can choose not to follow her personal Facebook page. I stand behind Senator Radogno yesterday, today, and tomorrow, and I think the rest of the state could stand to do the same.