A look at Chicago turnout
Friday, Nov 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Chicago’s election returns are being examined closely because the 2015 mayor’s race has already begun. Here’s Mary Mitchell…
In the city’s 20 predominantly black wards, Quinn got about 12,319 fewer votes than he did in 2010. Citywide, Quinn got 40,247 fewer votes than in 2014. The incumbent governor lost by more than 170,000 votes.
Interestingly enough, Quinn actually did better in some predominantly black wards than he did four years ago.
For instance, in the South Side’s 9th Ward, which includes the Roseland area, Quinn got 15,964 votes compared to 13,895 in 2010. Rauner picked up only 511 votes, 81 fewer than Scott Lee Cohen did in 2010.
Rather than a black backlash, it appears a lot of Democratic voters decided they couldn’t hold their noses.
In 2010, 689,951 Chicago residents cast ballots in the governor’s race, compared to 621,995 cast on Tuesday.
* Dan Mihalopoulos…
A coalition of labor and activist groups claimed it registered 80,000 new voters in Chicago this year. They failed badly in their first attempt to channel those voters, for Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s re-election bid.
Rather than bringing more people to the polls Tuesday, voter turnout was down sharply in the city’s wards compared to the 2010 election. According to the city’s election authorities, less than 622,000 votes were cast — a drop of about 70,000 in four years. Quinn received more than 40,000 votes fewer in Chicago than four years ago.
The campaign that boasted of registering so many new voters was called Every Vote Counts and also signed up new voters in the Cook County suburbs. It involved staunch Emanuel foes such as the Chicago Teachers Union, the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Illinois Indiana and the Grassroots Collaborative activist group.
That campaign failed miserably. Absolutely miserably.
* Greg Hinz…
Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner did do OK out in Milwaukee Avenue land, snagging 38 percent in the 39th Ward, 40 percent in the 38th Ward and a near-majority 47 percent in the 41st Ward — the last ward in Chicago to have given most of its votes to a GOP gubernatorial nominee, Jim Ryan against Rod Blagojevich in 2002.
But this election, Mr. Rauner outpolled Democrat Pat Quinn by an unofficial 7,707 to 7,346 in the 42nd Ward, which covers the heart of downtown, according to the latest unofficial totals.
Equally notable, Mr. Rauner came within 90 votes of snagging Lincoln Park’s 43rd Ward and at latest count had 43.51 percent of the vote in the new 2nd Ward, which snakes from Ukrainian Village south and east to the Near North Side. Almost as good, he cracked the one-third mark in the 32nd Ward, which covers the increasingly upscale Bucktown/Wicker Park area, and Lake View’s 44th Ward.
Some of that is because of the hard work of long-ignored Chicago GOP leaders. “It’s the fruition of years of effort,” says 42nd Ward GOP Committeeman Eloise Gerson. “We’ve touched base with the people.”
But most of it, I suspect, has to do with the nature of the neighborhoods that mostly feed downtown’s growth industries: finance and technology, trading and upper-level management, law and accounting. Those folks mostly are social liberals, but Mr. Rauner’s entrepreneurial, pro-business “growth” message almost certainly resonated with them more than Mr. Quinn’s attacks on Mr. Rauner’s wealth and how he obtained it.
- Walter Mitty - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:34 pm:
Rich… This does prove what I was saying for a time… Will rank and file union members come out for Quinn? Will they come out as the did for DLard..? Nope.. And this proves the winds in Chicago are a changin….
- too obvious - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
Obviously no one in the press is going to mention the huge benefit Rauner got from a press which decided to phone this one in where Rauner was concerned.
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
==Obviously no one in the press is going to mention the huge benefit Rauner got from a press which decided to phone this one in where Rauner was concerned.==
Perhaps they considered the messenger
- Bishop of Pope County - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:39 pm:
Dan’s article demonstrates once again that progressives talk a good game but rarely deliver.
- TROOPER - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
Pat Quinn lost because he signed a bill to take our Pensions. Period. Anybody agree? RNUG??
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:42 pm:
Exit polls showing 40%+ of union households voting Rauner had to really feel like a punch to the gut. Not only did a lot stay home, but a lot who did vote went for Rauner
- Walter Mitty - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:43 pm:
My point, easy for rank and file to come out to beat Rauner against Dlard… The guy who actually tried…not so much. Here end’s the lesson. Rank and file are smarter than the leaders. They know you need to change the constitution. A Gov can’t do it alone… You thought nobody would find out?
- Very Fed Up - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 12:54 pm:
It shows that a lot of left leaning people can only be pushed so far with in your face incompetence and cronyism that was so evident with Quinn/Madigan. Was my 1st time voting republican in the 6 election cycles since I’ve been old enough to vote.
- Snucka - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:02 pm:
= Rank and file are smarter than the leaders. They know you need to change the constitution. A Gov can’t do it alone… You thought nobody would find out? =
Assume that the pension reform bill is tossed from court. That means that, very soon, negotiations on pension reform will begin anew. Would union members be better off with Bruce Rauner in office or with Pat Quinn? If the Constitution needs to be changed in order to save the state from bankruptcy, Bruce Rauner will work to make that happen.
If union members voted for a man who counts Scott Walker as one of his role models, I have to doubt whether they’re as smart as you think.
- anon - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:21 pm:
“Assume that the pension reform bill is tossed from court. That means that, very soon, negotiations on pension reform will begin anew.” When the court rules, game over. Only Ty Fahner is delusional enough to think that the court ruling is the beginning and not the end of negotiations. You owe and must pay. What’s to negotiate? What’s to fear from Rauner after that ruling?
- Anonymoiis - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:26 pm:
==What’s to fear from Rauner after that ruling?==
Isn’t the current contract about up?
- Carhart Representative - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:26 pm:
Quinn did three things that bothered teachers after they were probably the group that most saved his goose in 2010.
1. SB7
2. Pensions
3. Paul Vallas
Vallas may have been the worst. Vallas was on WTTW the week before the election talking about what an active part he’d play in public education if Quinn won re-election. I think voting for Quinn made more sense from a union perspective, but it was asking teachers to overlook a lot to vote for someone who seemed to continually find ways to attack them.
- Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:41 pm:
40% of union members voted for Rauner? Did Rauner get 40% of union contributions?
Disconnect?
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:42 pm:
The lesson is Republicans should run hard in Chcago and Cook County. Good things can happen.
The phrase “Reagan Democrats” was born in Chicago. There are plenty still there, but you’ve got to hustle.
- Chris - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:44 pm:
“==What’s to fear from Rauner after that ruling?==
Isn’t the current contract about up?”
THIS. If y’all don’t think that Rauner will just lock you out, or straight up fire everyone, you are seriously underestimating him.
- Chris - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:46 pm:
“The phrase “Reagan Democrats” was born in Chicago. There are plenty still there, but you’ve got to hustle.”
Or, you know, run a couple of candidates for local offices.
The Soviet-esque look of the Cook County portion of the ballot was embarrassing.
- Secret Square - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:48 pm:
I have to admit I was startled by the high percentage of union households that voted for Rauner. Could it be that they prefer someone who says “no” up front, to someone who makes a promise and then breaks it?
- Snucka - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:54 pm:
= THIS. If y’all don’t think that Rauner will just lock you out, or straight up fire everyone, you are seriously underestimating him. =
Yep. He has already stated as much, and I see no reason to doubt him.
- Very Fed Up - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 1:56 pm:
Private sector unions will do a lot better under a thriving economy. Also the message of higher compensation for government employees who drive results resonated.
- Joe Maddon - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:01 pm:
It had nothing to due with the Chicago GOP. Those people are such a delusional bunch of wannabes.
It was because Quinn was not liked at all. That area Eloise Gerson is from very independent and care less about the Dem Party or unions. If anything the lack of county wide races hurt Quinn not the Chicago GOP.
- Roscoe Tom - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:07 pm:
Good bet the last door Ms. Gerson knocked on politically was the washroom at a Walgreens.
- low level - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:23 pm:
Those communities were tired of Rauner’s patronizing attitude and the idea that just because some minsters supported him that their votes would follow.
- Rollo Tomasi - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:33 pm:
Labor endorsements no longer carry the weight that they once did. Members veto their own mind more often than not today.
As far as the 80K new voter’s that more for the “Anyone but Rahm” campaign to come up in the mayoral election. If the teacher’s, labor’s police, or fire union endorse Rahm two things will happen. First none of their membership will follow that endorsement. An secondly the leadership in those unions will be out on their ear in their next election if not sooner.
- Educator - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:37 pm:
The selection of Vallas as Lt. Gov had a large negative impact among educators. Add Quinn’s support of pension theft and many people stay home.
- Titus Lucretius Carus - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:41 pm:
Now I understand why the GOP didn’t run a candidate against Berrios or Preckwinkle… If either had faced a contested race they would’ve rallied the troops and done a better GOTV for Cook County Dems…
- Chris - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:41 pm:
“If the teacher’s … union endorse Rahm”
Karen’s already endorsed Chuy, and Jesse would get behind Rauner ahead of Rahm.
- Sam Weinberg - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:45 pm:
== Exit polls showing 40%+ of union households voting Rauner had to really feel like a punch to the gut. Not only did a lot stay home, but a lot who did vote went for Rauner ==
Per CNN, 42% of union member household voters supported Rauner in 2014, as compared to the 41% of union member household voters who pulled the lever for Brady in 2010.
Also, since the share of Union household voters increased from 26% of the electorate in 2010 to 32% in 2014, Quinn actually netted a few thousand more union household votes this time around.
Surely nothing to trumpet (especially given Rauner’s stance on labor issues), but given everything that transpired these last few years with Quinn it feels like a minor miracle.
- Chris - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 2:59 pm:
“why the GOP didn’t run a candidate against Berrios or Preckwinkle”
or Dart, or Orr, or Pappas. Or the commissioners for 12 of the 16 districts.
Might have been smart for this election cycle, tho.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 3:03 pm:
===Might have been smart for this election cycle, tho.===
It was.
- anon - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 3:55 pm:
If Quinn had vetoed that pension theft legislation, he might well have won. He knew it is going to be thrown out by the courts anyway so it isn’t any real solution. A high price for a political stunt which backfired on him.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:05 pm:
Eloise Gerson is taking credit?
That’s a joke.
I spent all day on election day going from precinct to precinct in 42. I did not see a single person from her organization. The GOP state rep. candidate put up a few signs. That was it. There was no other indication of any GOP organization.
We also never saw or heard anything from them prior to the election. They were invisible.
Eloise made zero effort to reach out or “touch base.”
Greg Hinz tends to do good work. It is too bad he printed her comment without any apparent follow up questions.
- Hacksaw Jim - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:10 pm:
=== If Quinn had vetoed that pension theft legislation, he might well have won. ===
Man, talk about being shortsighted. I understand that the pension bill ticked off state employees to no end, but if they think that they will have it better under Governor Rauner, they have another thing coming. He has been the most anti-union & anti-govt. employee candidate that we have seen here in Illinois. Now he will be the most anti-union and & anti-govt. employee governor that we have seen here in Illinois. Should be a fun 4 years
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:11 pm:
Let me add to that –
In 42, Christian Mitchell received 61% of the vote. If Gerson was so effective, why did the GOP State Rep. candidate still get his behind kicked?
The results in 42 had nothing to with any GOP strength. It had nothing to do with Gerson or her invisible “years of hard work.” It was about wealthy Dems who had enough of Quinn. It was personal to one candidate.
- Rosemont Bob - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:19 pm:
- Chris -
Your very much on to something here. And those 4 district commissioner races also helped Rauner. Three of those races involved the southwest part of Suburban Cook. Those townships involved in competitive races delivered gigantic for Rauner and Republicans won all in landslides .
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:48 pm:
I dont buy the “smart plot” of not running GOP candidates in Cook County because it keeps Dems votes down.
LIke fear of Roger Keats put Quinn over the top in 2010? Give me a break.
There are no GOP candidates because there is no GOP organization.
Seriously, in the center of the fourth largest metro economy on the planet, it’s a plan for the Republican Party to go on the milk carton?
That’s just spin borne of laziness, not strategy.
- Chicago poll watcher - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 5:00 pm:
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 4:48 pm:
Maybe in the previous years, not this year!
but keep telling yourself that…
It was a quiet well played idea that morphed into an action plan.
had the city GOP not run a dozen state rep races with ZERO chance of ever winning I suggest Rauners may have been even higher
- Upon Further Review - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 5:00 pm:
With all of the well publicized scandals connected with Assessor Berrios, it seemed criminal not to challenge him.
- Rod - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 5:10 pm:
Greg Hinz’s article on the Rauner vote in the city was thoughtful. Having lived in the Andersonville community of Chicago for over 30 years more and more college educated heads of families and singles have moved in to the community who were raised in suburban communities (not all Chicago suburbs by the way either) and in many cases are effectively Republican leaning by birth. This is even the case in the large gay community in Andersonville, but the hostility to marriage equality among many Republicans prevents a good number of those folks from voting Republican.
The same thing has happened in many areas of the near north side and in the south loop. I don’t see it as representing a shift of liberal Democrats to Republicans, its more the Republicans coming out of the closet in these communities for this election. So Greg’s article made a lot of sense to me.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 5:11 pm:
CPW, you do nothing in past elections, and you’re weak and lazy, but you do nothing this election and you’re genius?
Only thing for sure, you’re doing nothing. Like Seinfeld.
Spin it by Dick Uihlein. Experience shows that dude will write some powerful checks for just about any crazy scheme.
- Gooner - Friday, Nov 7, 14 @ 5:43 pm:
One more 42nd Ward story –
I was undecided on the Tom Cross race until the last day. What made me choose? Dave Clarkin worked his behind off pushing the Democrat.
I never heard anything from the GOP. No mail on that race, no calls. Nothing whatsoever. The Chicago GOP did nothing to get my vote.
I’ve lived in the 42nd Ward for nearly 20 years. Nobody from the Chicago GOP or the 42nd Ward GOP has ever contacted me or my wife.
Yes, I take a Democratic Party primary ballot. However, if the GOP is going to ignore anybody who takes a D primary ballot, they are giving up on expanding the party.
So much for Gerson’s years of hard work.