120 Comments - Anonymouse - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:29 am: If people seem to like/agree with his ideas, it just a messaging problem then for the governor? - Shoedoctor - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:29 am: 80% support for term limits, I am surprised it is that low - jerry 101 - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:30 am: wow. Crash. and. Burn. Heckuva Job, Brucie! - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:32 am: - staunch opponent to the amount of power - Come on, with wording like that you would get opposition to any organization. Try it again with “ultra wealthy finance tycoons” instead of unions and I bet the percentage is higher. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:34 am: The goal for the Rauner Crew is to sell the issues, but be able to deliver, than the polling may go up as things are accomplished. However, “Sonny Mode” is great to sell something, but it doesn’t chabge the law, the politics, the 30/60 problems, and the standing in federal court. My take? Ok, your “Sonny Mode” rants work, you probably can’t impliment a single one, and to add to that, you’re polling at 33%. “Going to the mattresses” sounds great, but what are you accomplishing WITH it, that you CAN do to help your numbers? - Reality Check - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:35 am: Nearly all of these questions introduce bias by only giving one side of issues — Rauner’s side. The worker’s comp and property tax questions are particularly egregious examples of this. As a result the only value of these questions is finding out what people would think in a vacuum where only Rauner was communicating with them. Of course, in the real world, many other voices are being heard, and people are choosing among them. An example of a much better, more fairly phrased question is on fair share, where people are told “Rauner believes A, unions say B, which do you agree with?” And there, Rauner loses 2 to 1. - MrJM - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:35 am: Who had “10:32″ in the “when will someone first claim that the language of the question is the cause of the unsurprising poll result with which they disagree” pool? – MrJM - Norseman - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:36 am: Let’s see, folks want to stick it to the unions and wealthy. Sounds pretty typical. The Gov can be happy that his propaganda efforts are bearing fruit. - walker - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:37 am: All sounds about right, given the questions. - Jack Stephens - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:37 am: I asked 4 out of 5 friends which sugarless gum the chew….and they said Trident! Anonymous is right: wording matters. - Percival - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:38 am: I’m not sure who should be more concerned, the Governor or the Democratic legislative leadership. It is difficult to judge approval poll results with a full third undecided. The respondents largely backed Rauner proposals, and have a dim view of Democratic stewardship. The jury is still out for both sides. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:39 am: Rauner looks like he is doing what the voters want him to do. They may not fully like the messenger, but they sure like the message. Good news for the GOP caucus. Rauner’s CREW most likely did focus group studies to determine their plan of action. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:42 am: The RTWFL and Fair Share questions are pretty horribly slanted to produce the outcome they got, though interestingly, they cut in opposite ways. WAA has a shakey rep (I think they had Quinn leading down the stretch?) but it’s the second poll to show an approval in the 30s, with another showing it at just 40%. It is what it is. - Former Downstater - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:43 am: No surprises in the poll, especially considering the phrasing on some questions. “Throw out the bums, cut spending and don’t give money to loafers on workman’s comp, except my local bum, spending that helps me and my family member on workman’s comp.” The going gets tougher when changes affect them personally. - forwhatitsworth - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am: Where’s the question about the influence of private-sector special interests? - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am: 80% say the state has been spending too much, but only 41% think it can’t keep spending at that rate. Yeah, okay. - Crispy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am: Agree with Anonymous–the language is leading and seems designed to get an anti-union response. Also, notice that on the one question that mentions the fairness issue (”fair share” dues), the numbers are flipped in the union’s favor, even though the wording goes out of its way to make Rauner’s position look more reasonable than it is. This survey shows that unions have to do a lot better job of educating the general public–including publicizing hidden Koch ties and the motives of anti-labor folks like Rauner, and showing how badly anti-labor policies have worked in places like Wisconsin. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:46 am: “I’m not sure who should be more concerned, the Governor or the Democratic legislative leadership.” The Governor. MJM and Cullerton have had bad numbers for years. They still have a supermajority. - How Ironic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:46 am: Very well written questions, slanted to result in the answers Rauner is looking for. “Do you support Bruces’ fight against overpaid, lazy union bosses attempts to kill puppies and kittens in their quest to bleed the state dry drawing their extravagant pension payments while double dipping the hapless taxpayer?” might have given him a better poll result though. - Skeptic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:47 am: “If you believe that taxes should be raised…” Where’s the question “If you believe cuts must be made…”? - Crispy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:49 am: Skeptic, true. How about, “If you believe helpless disabled kids should have funds to run their ventilators cut. …” It’s all in the wording and the choice of questions. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:49 am: ===Rauner looks like he is doing what the voters want him to do.=== Although none of it appears achieveable…other than that… ===Good news for the GOP caucus. Rauner’s CREW most likely did focus group studies to determine their plan of action.=== What, continually promise things you know there is no way to deliver? That’s why Rauner’s numbers are failing to mirror the policy. “The ideas are great, the guy can’t deliver.” There’s your disconnect, and why the ILGOP better be careful, they could be about 12 minutes away from the brand being tarnished with the moniker of being ideologues. It’s a warning sign; What’s sound to good to be true… - tobor - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:52 am: Remember, We Ask America=Illinois Manufacturers’ Association . - The obvious - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:53 am: Interesting poll that does give some good information. But I was surprised that there were numerous questions that were “leading”. Particularly the ones that said other states or named other states that were doing something — results tended to be sky high in those answers in favor of what other states were doing. Similarly, a couple of questions were just not worded well enough (ex. Fair share) and the answers were predictable. - ah HA - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:54 am: If a lie is said enough, it becomes truth… - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:54 am: Interesting really. Even divide on Approve/Disapprove/Undecided tells you plenty. His personality isn’t winning (yet) but his policies overwhelmingly are. That could move plenty of undecideds over to him depending on how things play out. Having a Governor who’s more concerned about policy than populism has it’s +/-. Unions have a bigger perception problem than the governor does right now. I went back again to see who polled and who commissioned it. Questions may be somewhat leading but not crazy tilted like many polls. This is before the budget agreement for FY15 which is being received at least lukewarm. Interesting poll. - gopower - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:57 am: Quick observations: 1. The “Rauner says” intro does bias the questions, but since he is not popular, it biases the answers against his positions. 2. The spending cut vs. tax increase question was biased by characterizing the cuts as “drastic” while not quantifying the tax increase at all. Yet drastic spending cuts are still preferred over a generic tax increase by 52% to 17%. - Roadiepig - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:57 am: So in summation , the people who answered this poll: Don’t want their taxes to go back up to the previous level , even if it means drastic cuts to services. Want their property taxes frozen, so there will be no way to make up for the state’s cutbacks. Overwhelmingly want term limits imposed, because they can’t seem to be able to just vote out bad representatives. Are fine with local right to work zones, even if they are presently illegal due to national labor laws. But… They don’t like the person who has been pushing for all of the above issues? How can Rauner not be polling at at least 50% so early in his first term, when several of these issues are at even higher levels of approval in the same poll ? Something to ponder, I suppose… - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:00 am: If I’m interpreting this correctly, I’d say there’s about a solid 30 percent who don’t like anybody or anything. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:01 am: Interesting split in the answers to the union questions. Overall, people don’t seem to like unions BUT where the unions exist they support everyone paying fair share. It wasn’t even close; plus it have the lowest number of undecided. Looks like Rauner’s fair share fit is a losing issue with the public. As far as the campaign contributions, banning them may be a popular issue but legally a losing one. Seems the infamous “cut waste and abuse” category is still the favored approach along with property tax freezes. Going to be a long, hard four years … - The Captain - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:03 am: “Gov. Rauner has stated that he would like to stop the exodus of jobs to other states. One of the reasons for jobs leaving is the fact that Illinois doctors and hospitals are allowed to charge higher prices when treating injured workers. That practice is not allowed in most states. We’d like to know if you think that Illinois should do what other states do and pay only standard rates to doctors and hospitals for injured workers.” This question is very bad. Would you like to stop the exodus of jobs to other states? y/y - veritas - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:07 am: =Commissioned by the Illinois Manufacturers Association. = C’mon - wording is everything - these results are meaningless. - Mama - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:08 am: The Tea Party’s brainwashing the voters method appears to be working. This is very sad. - WTF - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:09 am: “…local empowerment zones where employees are NOT required to join any union” By law no one is forced/required to join a union. NO ONE. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:12 am: More than 50% of respondents gave the the Democrats a C or better. We passed! - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:14 am: Look at the bright side (or try to). If more revenue is required, and this Governor is the one compelled to make that case, wouldn’t his assurance that every conceivable cut and efficiency that could be made has been made, help make the case for more revenue? He’s the first Governor in a long time who has never cut the pension payments. (I get he’s only been there a couple months). By all accounts, he wasn’t even tempted to. He went after the Road Fund instead- bigger sacred cow than Pension Holidays historically. He may just reluctantly become the guy you hate who gets it done for you. Just maybe. - Juice - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:17 am: Just to throw a couple cents in on the contribution question in particular, the general public broadly supports contribution limits and my guess is of the general viewpoint that there’s too much money in politics. They probably could have asked a similar question about others, whether billionaire hedge fund managers named Ken manufacturers who are lobbying the general assembly to pass legislation to put more money in the pockets and you would probably get a similar result. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:19 am: === 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:12 am: More than 50% of respondents gave the the Democrats a C or better. We passed!=== And more than 73% gave you a C or worse, 43% gave you a D or worse. Passing this way won’t get you into a State University. City Colleges for you! lol - Pound for Pound - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:20 am: Why is it ok for CAT and other big corps to make donations to get things done in their favor but its not ok for the unions? I believe it needs to stop on both sides but we all know money talks, so it won’t. - Rufus - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:20 am: In regards to the last question… The “polling” that is done every two years is the poll that reveals the actual view. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:23 am: === Passing this way won’t get you into a State University. City Colleges for you! lol=== Unless you can get your Dad to clout you into Payton Prep, and have an Ivy League school with a library and dorm with his name on it… State University and City Colleges…c’mon - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:25 am: ==He’s the first Governor in a long time who has never cut the pension payments.== That’s not true. The last one we just had didn’t. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:26 am: ===Passing this way won’t get you into a State University=== I was thinking more along the lines of making it from 3rd grade to 4th, but your point is well-taken. - Anon - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:26 am: Perhaps I’ve missed it but has anyone provided any numbers on exactly how much additional revenue could likely be raised by implementing a surtax on millionaires? Would it actually make a noticeable difference in the finances of the State? - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:27 am: == He’s the first Governor in a long time who has never cut the pension payments. == Both Ryan and Quinn made the scheduled payments. == he wasn’t even tempted to. == Just wait. The only way his proposed FY16 budget works is by skipping $2.2B in pension payments. - D.P.Gumby - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:27 am: Seems the only valid question is the approval. The rest needed rewording to be scholarly significant. - JS Mill - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:27 am: =Millionaire tax 60.24%= I guess his Wealthiness missed that result. - Hacksaw Jim - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:31 am: === If I’m interpreting this correctly, I’d say there’s about a solid 30 percent who don’t like anybody or anything. === Ha! Sounds about right, Word. These results are very confusing to me. People don’t necessarily think Rauner is doing a good job, but they like most the stuff spewing from his mouth. It almost makes voters seem irrational. I would like to think that voters are far more complicated than the answers they provide to a few carefully crafted questions. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:35 am: Guy, that’s a really bizarre post. RNUG and Demo have already pointed out your revisionist history (very recent history at that). But you understand that Rauner is proposing $2.2 billion in spending that’s funded by shorting the pension contribution, correct? - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:38 am: “I would like to think that voters are far more complicated than the answers they provide to a few carefully crafted questions.” That’s a nice enough way to put it. The bottom line, and you can see this in almost any poll versus any election result, is that polling for economic policy preference is a mug’s game. Even here- 80% say the state spends too much, but 40% say we can afford to spend at the current level. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:41 am: “He may just reluctantly become the guy you hate who gets it done for you. Just maybe.” If you believe in fairies, I guess. But he’s the guy who campaigned on a gradual decrease of the tax hike, then lobbied for it to be eliminated all at once, says we don’t need any new revenue, and is sitting on an approval rating in the 30s. If he does an about-face on revenue, it’s just as likely to completely bork his credibility on the issue. Which won’t stop new revenue from passing, but will prevent it from being popular. Which is fine. It never needed to be popular. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:41 am: I do Slinger. I also remember (very recent history) that the “temporary income tax hike” was primarily passed to catch up on pension payments. Did I misunderstand? I completely understand that 2.2 needs to be raised in some fashion to truly balance the budget. That’s the next frontier here. It’s what “bizarrely” led me to suggest that he needs to find or create that revenue to secure that payment. They may hate him forever. He might be the guy who rights the ship. Good thing he doesn’t have an absolute need to be liked huh? That’s a difference from every Gov in our lifetime. - OldIllini - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:44 am: The wording of the “fair share” question, “Labor unions believe that all employees in a union should be required to pay dues.” is so poor and misleading that the results are not reliable. Of course all employees in a union should pay dues. It’s the non-union members that are the issue. The wording should say “Labor unions believe that all employees in a union, as well as non-union members, should be required to pay dues.” The poll results on this question are therefore meaningless. - Skeptic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:48 am: “It’s what “bizarrely” led me to suggest that he needs to find or create that revenue to secure that payment.” Details will be out soon, right? - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:56 am: Skep, before session ends. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:56 am: A Guy: The full payment that was certified by the retirement systems as being due was paid by Quinn (and RNUG says Ryan too). The income tax increase allowed this to happen under Quinn. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:59 am: “Good thing he doesn’t have an absolute need to be liked huh?” You are assuming facts not in evidence. - Skeptic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:00 pm: “before session ends.” Well, in that case we only have another 7 weeks to wait. Unless it goes to overtime…. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:00 pm: Maybe when a budget faces the “green lights” will we truly know if Pensions will be fully funded, if the magic carriage will turn into a pumpkin, if the glorious stallions turn to mice, if the glass slipper…actually fits. This FY2015 “fix” tells us nothing of the budgetary priorities, nor does it explain how holes will be filled, or even if the pension payment will or won’t be fully paid. The vote today in the Senate, as with the House vote is exactly what it is; a fixing of the FY2015 budget, not based on policy priorities as much as it’s truly based on the numbers after a dollar sign. The numbers needed to work, the buckets needed to be emptied. I have no clue to the FY2016 except that the fairy tale today needs a rewrite ending. Like the Brothers Grimm, there is a misconception. Their endings, and most likey FY2016 ending, have few happy at the end. - Skeptic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:00 pm: …but we’ve been waiting for what, two years now? What’s a couple more months. - polltroll - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:04 pm: I’d be curious to see if people think that wealthy businessmen like the Governor should be able to spend 20 or 40 million in campaign contributions to influence tax policy that benefits them. Should the IMA be able to make campaign donations to influence lawmakers to support policies that benefit big business? I think you’d see similar answers. - Mouthy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:22 pm: I agree with some of the answers. I think unions should stop giving money to politicians and if you get union benefits you should pay your fair share. No freeloading… - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:32 pm: The wording should say “Labor unions believe that all employees in a union, as well as non-union members, should be required to pay dues.” That’s not even right. But I suspect an accurately worded question would be so confusing to the average poll respondent that many would hang up in frustration in mid-question. “Labor unions believe that all employees covered by a union agreement, union as well as non-union members, should be required to pay at least the minimum dues in the amount sufficient to fund the bargaining of labor contracts, but for non-union members excluding any portion that goes to political activities or other non-bargaining activities.” - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:46 pm: Those numbers explain a lot behind Rauner’s messaging and policies. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:59 pm: Guy, I have no idea where you’re coming from. What was bizarre was your claim that no recent governors have chosen to fully fund pensions (Quinn and Ryan did) and that Rauner hasn’t “even been tempted” to short pensions (when he’s proposing to do just that). Other than that, spot on. - One of the 35 - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:14 pm: Given the current financial state of Illinois, how could anyone give the D’s a grade better than F? - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:20 pm: ===Other than that, spot on.=== Thanks, Sling, now let’s say you change outta those PJs and I take you over the Peterson’s for some ice cream. Totally joshing. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:23 pm: ==how could anyone give the D’s a grade better than F?== ==F== was the second most popular choice, just ahead of ==D==. Maybe people were being polite by giving them a ==C== lol. - A Jack - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:28 pm: So the question was contributions to the person who negotiated the union contract. That would only be the governor. Since its pretty likely that no Union gave money to the governor’s campaign, where’s the beef? The union should still be able to give contributions to members of the GA who are labor friendly. - Obamas Puppy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:34 pm: Consider the source, do you think they would release a poll that said Unions are Great?!!! - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:43 pm: Guy, that’s a good one. Keep it at that level and your head won’t hurt so much. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:46 pm: Your kindness abounds Sling. Now hurry up, I’m turning into the alley now. - Left Leaning - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:50 pm: I’ll admit that after all the contention, seemingly harsh proposed budget cuts, that Rauner approve vs. disapprove is only minus 1. Does that mean his core message has a decently high floor of support? - Rapscallion - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:50 pm: You’ll always get a poll to show that tax increases are supported, as long as they’re raised on SOMEBODY ELSE. The easy, political thing to do for Rauner would’ve been to avoid the problems of what to cut and be “compassionate” but that’s not what’s needed here. now that he’s lowered the budgetary baseline with these cuts, he can perhaps look at some revenue increases next year while keeping spending at 2015 levels as much as possible. He needs to start looking at how to make up for all those years of pension contribution negligence by keeping up with new revenues and frozen spending. Sadly, I think that what will happen is that public schools and other state and municipal services will need to be privatized, state and local workers fired, then the worthy ones rehired in the private companies providing the service. That would stop the growth of the unpaid pension liabilities. It could be that the “privatizing” of state universities is the first step n that direction. I wish there was another constitutional way of meeting those same ends, but I just don’t see any way, even voluntary, of doing that. Illinois just can’t continue to fund pensions and retirement benefits at the current levels without severely cutting back on necessary services, even with a modest tax increase. - Federalist - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:08 pm: Unions as an effective force have been largely dismantled in this country. Fewer and fewer belong. Most unions do provide higher wage- both public and private sector related job responsibilities. So if you are not a member and you see others getting more the resentment factor takes over. If you are miserable, you want to make certain others are also. As they say “misery loves company.” Am I being a little simplistic/ Of course. But not much. - Federalist - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:10 pm: “According to Gov. Rauner, the State of Illinois has been spending too much money over the past decade and therefore must make drastic across-the-board cuts to the state budget everywhere except education.” Of course public universities do not constitute education. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:13 pm: “Does that mean his core message has a decently high floor of support?” No. If you take his approval number in this poll as his floor, it’s 33%. That’s not decently high, that’s Pat Quinn territory right there. - A Jack - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:18 pm: Well Rap, the state has already acted to slow the growth of pensions by enacting a tier 2. If you fire everyone, you will have no one contributing to the system, yet the obligations will still be there. And my own experience with private contractors is that they cost a great deal more than public employees and won’t have the institutional knowledge for operations to run correctly. And really, do you want to talk to someone in another country when your unemployment benefits are denied? - Shoedoctor - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:30 pm: Rauner- Approve 32% Disaprove 33% Democrat grade last 12 years- A or B 21% C or worse 79% Rauner is more popular than GA, it will be hard to defend alot of these votes against reform. - Finally Out (and now very glad to be) - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:36 pm: ==should public sector unions be able to make campaign contributions to the elected officials that negotiate their contracts? I always thought CMS negotiated the contract with the union. - Norseman - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:41 pm: === Rauner is more popular than GA, it will be hard to defend alot of these votes against reform. === I’m sure the Dems are shaking in their boots (pun intended). - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:44 pm: ===Rauner is more popular than GA, it will be hard to defend alot of these votes against reform.=== Running against Rauner will be the ball game. Which is more true; the votes coming up are going to help the GOP GA, or hurt the GOP GA. You put a think on that. - Iron Duke - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:57 pm: This poll disagrees with you Willy as do I - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:02 pm: - Iron Duke -, Which one of those polled items can actually…happen? Rauner will still be governor. Funny thing about having a record, you’re forced to run on it. A fiscal year fix is far different to a passed budget. - Been There - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:05 pm: ===poll-rauner-approval-at-33-percent-but-anti-union-message-well-received/=== In other words voters are still ticked off at everybody. Not a great time expect some love from the people - Iron Duke - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:17 pm: Hard to believe Democrats are immune to popular opinion. Unlike the past twelve years there is now an alternative path for the state. I do think some Dems will compromise on some of the budget issues. - Juvenal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:20 pm: On Feb 17 I posted I thought Rauner had a ways down to go still and would probably bottom out around 35 percent. My apologies. I did not expect him to keep yammering about unions. I think he might make it down as far as 28-29 now. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:27 pm: ===Hard to believe Democrats are immune to popular opinion.=== There is a reason the Tier 1 targets didn’t vote for HB317 and HB318. Districs are different. Also you are missing the point; If you polled 7 year olds and ask if they favored ice cream for every meal, how do you think that would go Those same 7 year olds find out there is no way they are getting ice cream for every meal, and are told getting liver every year is better for them by one adult, how do you think that adult will fare? You didn’t answer my question; “Which one of those polled items can actually…happen?” - ArchPundit - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:34 pm: ==Approve 32.67% So the theory of those thinking Rauner is unpopular, but will get things done works how? Magical thinking that a really unpopular guy who keeps doing things that make him especially unpopular is going to sway people to be unpopular with him? Is that his appeal to the Legislators? You too can become electorally toxic! What a deal! - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:43 pm: ===Running against Rauner will be the ball game.=== Just like 2014. So far, close to 70% don’t disapprove. I’m guessing his crew can work with that just fine. After this week, it improves. In fact, I think it improves from here on out. Just watch. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:48 pm: - A guy - One seat flipped. One. Plus, now running with Rauner at 33% versus the skewed polling, again, there was a reason Tier 1s weren’t “green” in the House, not “green” in the Senate, and perfectly structured roll calls were arranged. This could very well be the easiest lift. - A guy - “Which one of those polled items can actually…happen?” - Iron Duke - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:49 pm: Most voters are not 7 year olds. Your condescension to them is telling. Most do not trust politicians D or R which is why they favor divided government. I think most if not every GA district except in Cook County voted for Rauner. They expect compromise on most issues. I don’t know what will happen but you can see the negative ads writing themselves - Norseman - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:50 pm: === I’m guessing his crew can work with that just fine. === I’m guessing his crew with HIS MONEY can work with that just fine. There, I corrected it for you. - nona - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:50 pm: The three most popular proposals are term limits, the property tax freeze, and the millionaire’s tax. The GA won’t approve the first two, and Rauner would not approve the last one. So both parties are willing to buck public opinion when it suits them. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:53 pm: ===So far, close to 70% don’t disapprove If we were talking about Pat Quinn would you have laughed at that? ===In fact, I think it improves from here on out. Just watch. So what is going to improve for him? What moves his numbers up? - Norseman - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:55 pm: === They expect compromise on most issues. === Compromise would be nice. Where do you see this guy compromising with unions and their supporters. To me, his agenda is to bully first and compromise only on limited “have to” items as a very last result. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:56 pm: ===Most voters are not 7 year olds. Your condescension to them is telling.=== “These leading questions are trying to sway people like they’re 7 year olds. The questions condescension to people is telling.” Please. Learn. ===I don’t know what will happen but you can see the negative ads writing themselves.=== Against Rauner? Yeah, that’s for sure - nona - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:00 pm: === Should wealthy businessmen like the Governor should be able to spend $20 or $40 million in campaign contributions to influence tax policy that benefits them? Should the IMA be able to make campaign donations to influence lawmakers to support policies that benefit big business? === Those are different than union campaign donations. According to the Gov, donations from only one source are corrupt. All - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:00 pm: === Norseman - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:50 pm: === I’m guessing his crew can work with that just fine. === I’m guessing his crew with HIS MONEY can work with that just fine. There, I corrected it for you.==== Norse, Point very well taken. The money AND not being consumed with an election of his own. Like him or hate him (according to a recent poll 33.61% are somewhere in the middle-lol) this guy is a very capable campaigner. He won a lot of those districts the HGOP and SGOP lost. Better candidates, better funds, off-year Senators helping out…there’s some reason for optimism here. Presidential year or not, my own intuition (I say that for Slinger’s sake) tells me the most interesting and hard fought battles will be in the middle of the ticket. Rauner will have a record. We’ll see where it winds up, but there’s a rally theme regardless. To Willy’s point, we only picked up 1 seat, very true. But we exposed enough cracks in a number of places where a better concentrated and strategic effort will yield better results. And yes, there is some money there to help. Turns out moving legislation isn’t the only new thing for the HGOP and SGOP. Having well funded campaigns and well qualified candidates early is a pleasant new thing too. As a Precinct Captain, I’m looking forward to 16. If I can find a candidate Willie and I agree on somewhere in the state, maybe we can go door to door together somewhere and have a sign contest to raise money for charity. The possibilities are endless. - nona - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:00 pm: === Should wealthy businessmen like the Governor should be able to spend $20 or $40 million in campaign contributions to influence tax policy that benefits them? Should the IMA be able to make campaign donations to influence lawmakers to support policies that benefit big business? === Those are different than union campaign donations. According to the Gov, donations from only one source are corrupt. All the rest are kosher. - Mama - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:03 pm: Anyone can set up a Poll with the results one wants it to show. I do not have faith in polls. - Skeptic - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:06 pm: “…attract companies by not requiring union membership?” So the question implies that no matter where you set up a business in Illinois or what type of business it is, you have to hire Union employees. No, not biased at all. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:14 pm: - A Guy -, your offer sounds very close to offer Henry Hill got to knock off someone in Florida. Henry knew, he’d never come back from Florida! lol. I’m persona non grata, ask - Louis G Atsaves -, but I’ll take think on your offer…Lets see if Jil Tracy makes a go… ===But we exposed enough cracks in a number of places where a better concentrated and strategic effort will yield better results. And yes, there is some money there to help. Turns out moving legislation isn’t the only new thing for the HGOP and SGOP.=== All very true. My whole point in how I’m going about this is very simple; every damaging vote hurts, Rauner, if he’s polling badly then, hurts. Attacking things that can’t be changed for the sake of making noise, in the long run hurts. I want the Caucuses to succeed, but the district’s micro is far different than a statewide macro. - Mama - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:14 pm: ++- ah HA - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:54 am: If a lie is said enough, it becomes truth… ++ Rauner is banking on people believing his lies. - Political Animal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:19 pm: This is nothing but good news for the governor. He used this same message in the election and people supports him then. Surprise surprise they still support his message a few months later. The approval rating means nothing. 1/3 undecided, 1/3 favorable, 1/3 against. Many people haven’t add up their minds because it’s too soon. Given the message approval his rating could be above 50% a year from now. Scott Walker beat up on unions and won a recall and reelection. He had no where near this support. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:23 pm: I could support Jil Tracy enthusiastically Willy. We’d both have to show up in the hinterlands incognito. lol. I get the Macro/Micro thing. I sit close to a district we shoulda/coulda/woulda…It would have notched one more important one for the HGOP. Didn’t happen and I was otherwise occupied. We’ll have another shot at it and another next time. Sometimes it’s a two step process. I love banging precincts with really great captains. All kidding aside, I’m pretty sure you can bang doors with the elite. Let’s seriously think about it. - Joe M - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:25 pm: ==He had no where near this support == It sounds like you are equating question manipulation with support. I am sure I could slightly change these questions and get just the opposite results. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:25 pm: - Political Animal -, (Sigh) Illinois isn’t Wisconsin, Walker has/d a GOP Legislature, and could and did accomplish some of the points above. Rauner has none of that. At all. Rauner is polling terrible and the issues polling well are impossible. What’s good again? - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:27 pm: - A Guy -, it’s March, ya never know, plus, I haveta be a moving target, don’t go Fredo on this… - A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:33 pm: lol - Rapscallion - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:33 pm: @ A Jack, pensions in public education are typically based on loading the salaries for senior faculty and admins at far above their relative value late in their career to minimize employee pension contributions while maximizing payouts. That’s what “end of career spiking” is all about. Illinois pensions aren’t like SSC, which is a tax on working people to pay for the benefits of current retirees. It’s a contribution that enables the employees to earn years in the system, which is a determinate in pension payouts. A small, but important, distinction. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:34 pm: ===This is nothing but good news for the governor. Everything is always good news for President John McCain and Bruce Rauner apparently. Is that you Mark Halperin? So he has about the same approval rating as Pat Quinn, in a Blue state, and he beat Quinn in that Blue state by only 5 percent even though Quinn had a low thirties approval. But everything is going swimmingly… - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:35 pm: I was going to say “Nicky Santoro” with the cornfields but it spooked me - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:39 pm: Glad to see AFSCME got their act together and issued a good response. They need to do a lot more of that … and they need to be out there all the time negating the negative stereotypes they’ve allowed the 0.1% to push the last several years. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:44 pm: Ok, back at it. - RNUG -, exactly. The days of waiting and waiting are way over. Also, good point; short, sweet, pointed, send. No one wants dueling novellas - Political Animal - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:44 pm: The only question manipulation is on the fair share question. It asks if all union members should pay their dues. The issue is non union members. - Abigail - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 6:32 pm: I do think Rauner is a tool and this poll is a joke - but Rauner is sadly going to make headway with his union busting. The public sector unions have lived up to nearly every concern FDR outlined in his opposition to public unions. Collectively bargained work rules alter what public servants are allowed to do day to day in ways not condoned by either elected officials or the voting public. (For example: Work Comp for turning keys in prison door locks for 30 percent of the prison guard workforce) They negotiate for more tax money against taxpayers, and offer that money in the form of a campaign contributions to the person who will negociate for the union employees with little regard for the taxpayer. Public Sector unions have become greedy and made a bad name for all unions. It is shame to see what is happening to craft unions outside of government. All working people will now have to pay the cost for greed. - Robert the 1st - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 7:11 pm: You’re about to be the most hated person on this site Abigail. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 7:12 pm: Abigail, you need a new act. You think you’re the first concern-troll to trot out the FDR gag? That’s been done to death for years by anti-union types. FDR was speaking specifically against the right to strike by federal employees. I’m sure his contemporaries would be surprised how often his “anti-union” viewpoints are cited today by certain ideologues. Good luck in your continued FDR scholarship. But really, the whole concern-troll bit is just weak. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:40 pm: ===All kidding aside, I’m pretty sure you can bang doors with the elite.=== As I am pretty sure you can deliver your pluses in margins that are restaurant quality. All these races will leave many opportunities for precincts to be walked, that is for certain… Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.