Rauner’s “messaging”
Monday, Jun 1, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is calling the Legislature’s spring session “stunningly disappointing” after Democrats passed a budget despite an impasse over how to fully fund it. […]
Rauner says there’s been “no sincere effort” by Democratic leaders to compromise. Democrats say Rauner’s agenda hurts the middle class.
* Sun-Times…
“A stunningly disappointing General Assembly session this spring, we do not have a balanced budget,” Rauner said from the Capitol on Sunday. “We have an attempt to force major tax hikes on the people of Illinois and we have no significant reforms and no sincere effort that we can tell yet to achieve significant reforms for the people of Illinois.”
Rauner has positioned himself as the change agent needed to push a Democratic-controlled Legislature into action. He described himself as a volunteer, who was in Springfield working for the people, while calling Madigan a “puppet master” interested only in protecting the power structure he’s built over the decades.
* Charles Thomas…
Thomas: You’re saying [Madigan and Cullerton are] using their public office to make money.
Rauner: They have very lucrative careers as politicians. That is true.
* More AP…
Rauner, a multimillionaire who has more than $30 million in campaign bank accounts and easy access to much more, won’t describe the planned media barrage, but aides have signaled the main target will be Madigan, the longtime speaker and Illinois Democratic Party chairman.
Rauner is relying in part on a statewide poll his political team conducted this spring showing the governor enjoyed a public-approval rating much higher than Madigan’s. Steve Brown, Madigan’s spokesman, said it’s no sure thing the campaign will work.
“As the speaker has said, he’s been the target of Republican attacks for years,” Brown said. “It’s nothing new.”
Democratic mailers have arrived in GOP districts, too, though Illinois Republicans have deep pockets to fight back.
* More…
There’s also a huge buzz over whether Rauner, said to have $50 million in political funding under his direction, now will launch a massive advertising attack on Democrats, particularly Madigan, who the governor’s press office has punched at often in the past week.
Rauner on Sunday said he wasn’t going to discuss “messaging,” but he added he’s braced for anything aimed at him.
“You watch the attacks coming against me the next couple of weeks,” the governor said, “This ain’t tiddlywinks.”
- Stones - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:34 am:
The Speaker only needs to be popular in his district and among his colleagues. I don’t see a statewide PR campaign against him being very effective.
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:36 am:
=== Brown said. “It’s nothing new.”===
Couldn’t disagree more. It’s very new on this scale and more people know him than ever. If he remains as sensitive as he is, this will be very unpleasant. It won’t be a few voices, it will be a barrage. It will be augmented by earned media saying nearly the same thing.
This is new.
- MrJM - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:37 am:
Bruce Rauner: “I’m very disappointed in everyone except Bruce Rauner.”
– MrJM
- Arsenal - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:42 am:
Who is left that has a positive opinion of MJM?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:43 am:
===Thomas: You’re saying [Madigan and Cullerton are] using their public office to make money.
Rauner: They have very lucrative careers as politicians. That is true.===
That will help…
- Are Ya Kiddin' Me? - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:45 am:
A Guy….No matter how “unpleasant” the ad campaign may be, it still will not change the fact of 60/30….Madigan and Cullerton have 6o and 30 votes….Gov. doesn’t. $50M in ad spending doesn’t change that.
Nor does $50M in ad spending change the map…the map is the map is the map.
- AnonymousOne - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:47 am:
“a volunteer……working for the people”
Which people would those be?
- Norseman - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:57 am:
=== Thomas: You’re saying [Madigan and Cullerton are] using their public office to make money.
Rauner: They have very lucrative careers as politicians. That is true. ===
Brilliant observation from the Gov. We are saved!
- Arsenal - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:58 am:
Here’s the thing…”victory” in the ad blitz means Raunerite Majorities starting in 2017. That’s all it can accomplish. And even bracketing whether or not that will happen, it still means…a year and a half of what we’ve got.
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 9:58 am:
So a barrage of attack ads in June, July, and probably August. With no elections this year. Yay? Is there anyone in Illinois (outside of those already in the Rauner/tribune edit board cheering section) who will appreciate the repeated airing of these rumored commercials?
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:00 am:
===Nor does $50M in ad spending change the map…the map is the map is the map.===
You’ve kinda just made the governor’s point. The map is tight. We’ll find out how tight.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:04 am:
==Is there anyone in Illinois (outside of those already in the Rauner/tribune edit board cheering section) who will appreciate the repeated airing of these rumored commercials?==
Radio and TV salespeople
- Macbeth - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:05 am:
—
Couldn’t disagree more. It’s very new on this scale and more people know him than ever.
—
So what? There’s no election. An ad campaign *doesn’t matter*.
Now, what would matter would be something that Madigan did that wasn’t kosher. That might be a game changer — and I suspect that’s where this is going.
But still. Rauner has more skeletons than Madigan. So it’s a war of attrition — and there’s *still no election*.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:08 am:
A $177,000 per year “volunteer” who spent $30 million of his loose change to get this paid position in which he claims he is a “volunteer.”
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:09 am:
Macbeth, trouble, trouble, boil and bubble….
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:15 am:
==Radio and TV salespeople==
You’re not wrong there. Yearly sales goals will be met by Independence Day.
This also begs the question - what form will these ads take?
The “I’m Governor Bruce, and I’m fighting against the evil MJM for you” commercial?
Or the scary music, dark toned “Call the speakers office at 217-782-xxxx and tell him you don’t want his commie tax policies” commercials?
Or the elderly couple sitting at the kitchen table, with grimaces on their faces, as they discuss what a hell-hole that dirty MJM has turned Illinois into, commercial?
- Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:17 am:
WGN Cochran morning show, Rauner stated he was for the middle class and the Democrats were for the political class.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:20 am:
===WGN Cochran morning show, Rauner stated he was for the middle class and the Democrats were for the political class.===
If I knew what that actually meant in the prism of cooperation and governing I’d be impressed.
It’s just another Raunerite talking point, helping very little.
- Langhorne - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:21 am:
===”They have very lucrative careers as politicians.”===
Gak. Sputter. …said the gazillionaire who made his money massaging politicians and public bodies to send our money to him to play with.
- IllinoisBoi - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:23 am:
State workers are mostly middle class (or lower). I’m so glad to see Rauner is their champion.
- Joe M - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:25 am:
A media blitz. Just what I want - more political ads on TV and more junk mail. Thank you Governor Rauner for working to compromise with the Dems to come up with a budget. (snark)
- illinoised - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:31 am:
The more both sides attack each other the more they each look alike to me.
- Crispy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:33 am:
==Who is left that has a positive opinion of MJM?==
You think so? Anecdotally, have experienced the opposite–since the governor’s onslaught began, have heard a surprising number of staunch GOP voters volunteer a variant of, “I never thought I’d say this, but thank God for Mike Madigan.” He seems to be developing a reputation as the last defense against madness. Talk about creating an unlikely populist hero in MJM, but it could happen if the “Sonny” stuff continues. Interesting times.
- D.P.Gumby - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:34 am:
Help us all, here comes the Carhardt and Timex…again
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:41 am:
Bruce Rauner is governor, but he has lost his entire mandate. His ad blitz is going to be an attempt to find that mandate he squandered during his first six months in office.
He smothered his own administration and is now trying to give it mouth-and-wallet resuscitation. This is just embarrassing to watch.
The best route to take with this man is what he hates most - silence. Rauner hates being irrelevant.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:44 am:
Campaigning is fun. Passes the time of day before you have to summon the courage to make tough decisions.
- Arsenal - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:45 am:
@ Crispy-
And I’ve heard many Democrats say the exact same thing, right down to the “I never thouhght I’d say this…” construction.
But that’s kind of my point, nobody *likes* Mike Madigan. They may prefer his policy positions to someone else’s, or admire how skillfully he operates his fiefdom, or even think he’s a useful bulwark against Governor Rauner, but they don’t *like* him. An ad campaign predicated on “Mike Madigan is the cause of all the state’s problems” might well be greeted with, “Yes, and?” I’m not sold on its ability to move votes come 2016.
- Not quite a majority - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:48 am:
My facebook friends who are totally not political have noticed how BVR goes ‘g dropping’ when talking about ‘everyday folks’. They were not impressed. I do wonder what form the commercial blitzkreg will take (and the connection was intentional).
- Soccertease - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 10:55 am:
The ads won’t get Rauner the 60/30 votes, but they might just get some of the puppets removed come next election.
- GA Watcher - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:02 am:
Let’s not forget, 60/30 has become 71/36 now that we are in OT.
- walker - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:03 am:
Very concerned that Rauner Team construct the best message to succeed for the state.
Attacking the Speaker has been tried before and failed. Will fifty times the spend make it succeed? Well it certainly will have impact, but even if it made MJM public enemy number #1, it won’t necessarily get Rauner’s turnaround agenda passed. It will at best provide a scapegoat for the negative feelings that will emerge as we cut and tax.
Simply attacking Illinois government, economy, job trends, etc. will all be harmful to the state image in exchange for Rauner’s political gain. Boy that’s a Devil’s deal.
However, touting Illinois opportunities, and assets, if just we could get past some hurdles, and do certain things right. Deliver a message that would be hopeful for both the state and Rauner’s agenda.
Please, please don’t forget the positives about Illinois in this ad campaign.
Please raise your game, Governor Rauner, from being an “outsider” candidate, to being a leader of a great state!
- Mockingjay - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:18 am:
Madigan - fiefdom - does anyone really believe there is no dirty laundry in his entire political career he might not want to come out? Like maybe his net worth and how it really was obtained?
- downstate commissioner - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:22 am:
Re “Crispy” and Mike Madigan. This Republican went from hating Madigan to respecting him when Blagojevic hit town. Blago went after MJM, Quinn really didn’t work well with him, and now Rauner-when will they ever learn.
As I recall, governors who worked with him (Thompson, Edgar, Ryan) seemed to get things done even if they didn’t agree.
- Carhartt Representative - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:25 am:
==Who is left that has a positive opinion of MJM?==
I’ve never been able to stand the guy. The changed when he started going toe to toe with Rauner. He’s been winning me over.
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:27 am:
There’s a virtual MJM lovefest going on out there. Sure there is. /s
- Crispy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:30 am:
@Arsenal: Thanks for clarifying. @downstate commish: Same here. “Grudging respect” is probably all we need, and beats the alternative.
- burbanite - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:32 am:
I have never been a MJM fan, but I gotta say, I am about to make a donation….
- DuPage Grandma - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:56 am:
“Nobody likes Michael Madigan”…
I am liking him more and more every day. In fact I am beginning to love him…Bet I am not alone.
Crispy @10:33 says it very well..”He (Madigan)seems to be developing a reputation as the last defense against madness.”
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 12:45 pm:
=== burbanite - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 11:32 am:
I have never been a MJM fan, but I gotta say, I am about to make a donation….====
Oh, now it’s just a matter of which fund to donate to; there is such a wonderful set of choices. Hmmmm.
Gack.
- Big Joe - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:03 pm:
I have caught myself saying the exact same thing, regarding “Thank Goodness for Mike Madigan”. I never thought that I would say that in a million years. But Rauner is so abrasive, it is impossible to “like” him or his way of doing things. And now, since the session has ended, we have millions of dollars of ads on TV, in the papers, and everywhere you look. They will all be extoling the virtues of BVR and putting down the Dems for not gettin’ a balanced budget done. And those accursed robocalls will start again too. I don’t know of one Republican in my neighborhood that is looking forward to that either. I really think that the media blitz will turn more people against BVR than he thinks.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:13 pm:
Very expensive tiddly winks are still tiddly winks.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:13 pm:
The legacy of MJM, be it to the positive many times over in the realm of governing, or to the negative many times over to the politics, is not the many things passed out of the House, but the many things that died in the House.
That’s the real legacy.
Cherry-picking what has passed, that’s missing the whole point.
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:38 pm:
On that Willy, we agree.
What I haven’t heard is people having the epiphany moments of “I used to not like him, now I love him”.
That’s just plain goofy. Really goofy.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:39 pm:
===That’s just plain goofy===
You must’ve missed the RRB years around here. Lots of commenters were “converted” on MJM.
lol
- ArchPundit - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:42 pm:
Who are these ads going to reach in the middle of the summer when no one is paying attention to politics and few, but the aged are watching cable news?
- Arsenal - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:45 pm:
==Who are these ads going to reach in the middle of the summer when no one is paying attention to politics and few, but the aged are watching cable news?==
Well, they’ll have the money to put it on more than cable news if they want…
…but I take your point, and add in that the apparent message isn’t exactly compelling.
- MurMan - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:47 pm:
I was a rigid anti Madigan Dem until Rauner. Madigan has too much control, and I wanted good government reforms like redistributing and term limits before Rauner came along, but I’d rather have MJM in control then Rauner. At least I know MJM will stand up for my core ideological beliefs regarding the middle class and the economy. Rauner’s turnaround agenda represents economic policy that I believe hurtful to the middle class. I’d rather have a corrupt government fighting go the middle class than an honest government fighting for big business
- me too - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:52 pm:
Consider me converted too guy. I thought he was too corporate of a dem, but once Rauner started in on his war against the little guys he’s been the only thing keeping us from becoming West Indiana or worse. Dare I say, he’s my hero. Well not quite but I like him more and more as he takes your guy to school.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
====Well, they’ll have the money to put it on more than cable news if they want…
Very true, but no one watches much of anything in the summer.
- me too - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 1:55 pm:
If you all are keeping track, Rauner’s anti-madigan push isn’t working at best. At worst, it is backfiring.
- MurMan - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 2:42 pm:
Was just speaking with my neighbor, 62 year old suburban teacher that just retired. She doesn’t follow politics too closely, but she is a moderate Democrat that votes like clock work. I asked for her take on Rauner vs Madigan. Her quote, “Madigan, I never liked that corrupt son of a *****, but at least he knows how to deal with *** holes, and Rauner is an *** hole.” Haha. Not saying I agree with her colorful language, but had me in stitches.
I went on to explain Rauner might run a bunch of political ads over the summer. The notion that she might have to sit through political ads during her NCIS and other shows was not well received. I told her about DVR, but she is not good with technology. Guess she is in for a long, hard summer as well.
Not proof positive of anything, but a very funny anecdote that I wanted to pass along.
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:00 pm:
No one watches TV in the Summer. I dunno, there’s a hockey team playing that might attract a few viewers. And 2 baseball teams (and the Cubs! lol/s/ unfair cheapy)
And a host of crazy summer programming younger viewers especially watch Bachelor/Bacheloretter, etc.
Don’t kid yourself. People don’t shut down in the summer. Especially if they think the schools won’t open on time.
It will have an effect. Plenty.
- Educated in the Suburbs - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:00 pm:
I knew Mike Madigan was evil before I know what Mike Madigan was, my mother has hated him so much my entire life and used to sputter with rage about him while reading her morning Trib. Staunch Republican, never votes Democrat, loathes Mike Madigan. Said when visiting this weekend, “I never thought I’d agree with Mike Madigan about anything, but this governor is terrible. At least someone is standing up to Rauner, he’s NUTS.” (She also mentioned the autism funds cut, that is definitely floating around in the mom-and-grandma zeitgeist, I have heard it from a LOT of women who aren’t very political, who have seen it from on facebook and are mad.)
I mentioned the coming ad blitz, probably aimed at suburban voters like her, and she was like, “Oh great, thanks for ruining summer TV, governor!”
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:02 pm:
===Was just speaking with my neighbor, 62 year old suburban teacher that just retired. ===
Any more *Independents* you’re in close touch with? Oy.
- Educated in the Suburbs - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:04 pm:
Regarding term limits, Rauner is making his own case against it through his people’s incompetence — government is a DIFFERENT SKILL SET than business, and Rauner’s bumbling these six months has been highlighting why career politicians are often a better option than dilettantes.
- MurMan - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:15 pm:
Never said she was an independent. But she certainly is not some crazy tax and spend liberal. I think she is not far from the mold for most suburban women. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Anyways, it wasn’t a story to show Rauner’s end game will fail. I just found it very funny
- Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:17 pm:
Guy, it’s not a matter of opinion or speculatiion whether traditional TV audiences drop considerably in summer. Measurements have been going on since TV was invented.
And seriously, you criticize someone for quoting tneir neighbor? That’s your whole bit.
- burbanite - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:20 pm:
Perhaps I wasn’t clear before, I was not a fan of MJM before, but Rauner has made me a convert.
- ArchPundit - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:33 pm:
===Measurements have been going on since TV was invented.
Blagojevich used it well against Judy as well. He killed her in late April and May and then there was nothing for her to do for three months.
Not only are ratings in summer lower, but ratings as a whole keep tanking so you can blanket old people on Fox News with a median age of 69 or 70, you don’t reach many others.
- Aschockedobserver - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 3:36 pm:
The enemy of my enemy is my friend
- A guy - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 4:15 pm:
===And seriously, you criticize someone for quoting tneir neighbor? That’s your whole bit.===
Yeah, seriously. I didn’t criticize him. I cited that his recently retired School teacher neighbor didn’t utter anything that would be “breaking news”.
I’m pretty sure I have a better handle on TV ratings than you do. Buying ad time is part of the gig. Rating points are rating points and prices move accordingly. It’s just twice as many spots. You’re welcome.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 1, 15 @ 5:02 pm:
Guy, an effective targeted media plan is a wee bit more complex than a “ratings point is a rating point… It’s just twice as many spots” but I’m sure you bank the big money doing it that way.
Arch, I’m curious to see the spots to determine the objective of the campaign.
Rauner could have rolled out the big guns any time he wanted. The objective for doing so after May 31, when no issues have been decided, and 18 months before the next election, isn’t readily apparent.