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War through weakness
Friday, Jan 22, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * Tribune…
That was Cold War doctrine. It worked, but this isn’t “strength,” it’s rhetoric, and Madigan knows the difference. * After saying he wouldn’t budge, Rauner caved on his massive cuts to the autism program (announced on World Autism Day). He caved on money for local governments. He caved on funding the child care program. He caved on federal pass-through appropriations. He caved on paying state employees and funding schools during the impasse. He caved on judicial consent decrees for social services. I’m sure I’m missing others. The point is, talking big is far different than acting big, despite the oh so manly tough guy face yesterday…  * Madigan and other Democrats look at all those flip-flops and see weakness. That could also be why Dan Proft felt he had to warn Rauner in a Tribune op-ed to not cave to AFSCME and the other public employee unions. * Rauner is now attempting to sound as tough as possible ahead of his State of the State and budget addresses and he’s making big mistakes in the process. Not to mention that he’s also ginning up a severely fact-impaired war with the state’s only majority black university, which will further harm his ability to work with African-American legislators. And pitting the suburbs and Downstate against Chicago over school funding is deliberately divisive and could easily be racialized if he doesn’t watch himself. Knock off the words and get to work on moving this state - all of this state - forward, for crying out loud. Somebody doesn’t agree with you? Well, OK, I feel your cosmic pain, but stop whining about it and find another way. * Getting a deal with Cullerton (despite the governor’s horrifically botched rollout) was a good start. That’s strength. That’s governance. Focus on that sort of thing. Madigan will respect you for that stuff because he’ll have no choice. Empty words? Not so much. /rant
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- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:47 am:
Well said, Rich.
Here’s “Ball Game” for me…
===…this isn’t “strength,” it’s rhetoric, and Madigan knows the difference.===
Rauner isn’t fooling Madigan. That’s the only person Rauner needs to “defeat” (ugh).
===* Getting a deal with Cullerton (despite the governor’s horrifically botched rollout) was a good start. That’s strength. That’s governance. Focus on that sort of thing. Madigan will respect you for that stuff because he’ll have no choice.===
Rauner could ask Gov. Edgar about dealing with Madigan, in an honest way, but…
Great Post, Rich, thanks.
- cdog - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:49 am:
…caved…caved…caved…etcetera.
That’s what happens to a HOUSE OF CARDS.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:51 am:
Here’s a novel idea: a mediator between Rauner and Madigan.
My nominee is a billionaire, yet someone most Illinoisans respect. A Democrat, yet someone who understands the needs of business.
Someone who has a proven record of getting people to talk. Perhaps a strange choice for this job but somebody with the intelligence and integrity to handle it.
Oprah Winfrey.
Nope. Not snark.
- illinoised - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:51 am:
I am waiting for Republican legislators to do the right thing and start representing the best interests of their districts instead of cowering in fear of Rauner’s campaign war chest.
- 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:52 am:
Agreed, good post. Notice a theme though - Rauner is still trying to gain Madigan’s respect. It puts Rauner in subservient role - something he is not used to. Clearly uncomfortable.
- Ahoy! - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:52 am:
To truly get to Madigan you have to do it in November and you have to make him lose seats and feel vulnerable. The problem is that Madigan has corrupted the democratic process and brilliantly drawing his own legislative maps.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:53 am:
Dan Proft means nothing. He is just a tool of Rauner’s and does what he is told. He’s being paid and that is it.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:54 am:
Rich - but does Madigan really want to work out a deal? And does he ever admit a mistake or act as though someone had a better idea? Because this is the same guy who adjourned the 97th General Assembly sine die and then took forever to come around on a pension plan when his party controlled all three levels of government (Governor, legislature and IL Supreme Court). He took over Cullerton’s bill - which most scholars thought had a much better chance at being held up by the courts - and threw it in his figurative toy chest of bills and proposals he refuses to consider. So why is there any hope? If the Governor and his staff capitulate, then Speaker Madigan will try to make him say “uncle” at every turn.
- Honeybear - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:54 am:
I think Rauner doesn’t care about caving because the only thing he wants is to destroy Labor. All these only things are distractions from his main goal. He doesn’t care. He’s not only a “true believer” he’s a radicalized fundamentalist. Fundamentalists only chose the scripture that suits their overall goals or needs. The Governor has no interest in governing, only in destroying labor. PERIOD. GAME. END OF STORY. All else is a distraction that he tries to get off his plate as soon as possible.
- Wensicia - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:56 am:
Rauner’s anti union obsession blocks coherant speech and thought processes. He can’t let it go.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 9:58 am:
Ahoy! - you have it right. I think anything - budget, pension reform, Turnaround items that are not polarizing - will sit idle until November or December.
This is really starting to remind me of Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton openly warring. Yes, neither was a billionaire. And yes, Gingrich had only been Speaker for about a year. But the setup was the same: things were extremely contentious between those two, and then there was a more moderate (generally speaking) Senate Majority Leader in Trent Lott who kinda got stuck in the middle. Eventually, things worked out. But how would that have played in this current environment? This is exactly what we are seeing - only worse.
- Maguffin - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:00 am:
Great analysis. Let’s hope from your lips (or typing fingers) to God’s (Rauner’s) ear…
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:01 am:
And yet, he has outmaneuvered Madigan on multiple occasions when they have gone head to head. The membership pay increase, the failed override attempt and more.
Both have exposed some weaknesses.
- Demoralized - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:01 am:
== Somebody doesn’t agree with you? Well, OK, I feel your cosmic pain, but stop whining about it and find another way.==
This is what makes the Governor bad at governing. When his die hard supporters cheer that he is “standing up” to people and castigate those that disagree with the Governor as being for the “status quo” they only inflate the Governor’s ego even more. So the Governor continues to whine thinking that the “people” support him and we continue to have a Governor who has absolutely no idea how to govern. Those of you that think that governing is “standing up?” That’s all well and good but you also have to actually govern. How do you do that? It’s called working with other people.
And before some of you whiners come back and say “well, yeah but Madigan” you really need to grow up. Of course Madigan isn’t helping. But just because Madigan isn’t helping does not mean the Governor should continue to whine every time he doesn’t get his way and dig his heels in even more as if that’s going to help anything.
Freaking govern already. Everyone is sick and tired of this crap.
- Boss Tweed - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:01 am:
“Rauner is still trying to gain Madigan’s respect.”
I don’t think he is; Rich’s argument is that he needs to. I think there’s certain elements of the Republican base that would say “No, we just have to DESTROY Madigan”, and I dunno, I’m sure there’s a catharsis to that, but it seems like a long shot.
“The problem is that Madigan has corrupted the democratic process and brilliantly drawing his own legislative maps.”
No, the problem is that an awful lot of Democrats live in Illinois.
- Juice - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:04 am:
I believe it was President Teddy Roosevelt who once said “Speak belligerently and do so with a stern face” or something along those lines.
I would also add the introduced budget to the Governor’s sign of weakness. He showed right there that he was going to be willing to cut everything to the bone if he didn’t get his way, and that’s what has brought us to this point.
Also, they are also continuing to fund downstate hospitals even though there is zero consent decree or court order covering those guys. Just doing it out of the kindness of the bleeding hearts.
- Concerned - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:04 am:
I don’t think Rauner wants to make deal with Madigan. Rauner campaigned (and still campaigns) on the idea that any deal with Madigan is a sign of corruption. Rather, Rauner wants Madigan to capitulate or suffer a mutiny. I don’t see either of those events occuring, so maybe Rauner should find a path to an “honorable” deal with the people’s elected representatives!
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:06 am:
===No, the problem is that an awful lot of Democrats live in Illinois===
lol
No. Rauner won a strong majority of the House districts in 2014. Keep that in mind when complaining about the map. Yes, it’s partisan, but it can be beaten.
- Boss Tweed - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:11 am:
“No. Rauner won a strong majority of the House districts in 2014.”
Yes, that’s my point. Madigan has won on maps he didn’t draw, too. Creative map-making is meaningless if you don’t already have a strong group of supporters.
- Northsider - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:12 am:
Bruce Rauner’s tenure to date surprises no one who was paying at least an iota of attention. Just who and what did you think was elected back in November 2014?
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:17 am:
“That could also be why Dan Proft felt he had to warn Rauner in a Tribune op-ed to not cave to AFSCME and the other public employee unions.”
I hope Rauner tries hard to realize that thousands of people’s livelihoods are not a political game.
What’s more, reaching a compromise with AFSCME is not a “cave.” It’s not a political game to thousands of workers who will be impacted by either Rauner’s implementation of his contract terms or a striking workforce.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:17 am:
I’m surprised that more is not being made by Rauner’s comments yesterday that he wished there was no collective bargaining for public employees.
That seemed to be the most emphatic statement yet of Rauner’s real motives behind this — all of this — and seems to be where he’s obviously heading.
On top of this, I cannot — cannot — understand how a comment like this doesn’t give AFSCME some leverage for declaring that the *governor* is acting in bad faith. You’d prefer collective bargaining to be eliminated — and then you admit you’ve reached an impasse?
Well, I wonder why.
That’s like the old Soviet Union saying, “I want to destroy all of America. Every one of you. Every American. But, yeah, let’s sit down and negotiate.”
- Norseman - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:18 am:
Wells said Rich and Demoralized!
- Sam Weinberg - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:18 am:
You know what I’ve never heard anyone who actually gets respect say? Their pithy secret for how they get respect.
When people are dropping truisms like that, it’s purely aspirational.
- justacitizen - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:19 am:
==“Rauner is still trying to gain Madigan’s respect.”== I don’t think Rauner needs to try to gain Madigan’s respect. However, if he stays strong, leads, and governs, he might just do so.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:22 am:
===”I am waiting for Democratic legislators to do the right thing and start representing the best interests of their districts instead of cowering in fear of Madigan’s campaign war chest.”===
Fixed it. The knife does cut both sides, does it not?
- Dilemma - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:24 am:
==” However, if he stays strong, leads, and governs, he might just do so.”"==
What part of having no budget, no contract with the majority of your employees, bankrupting valuable service providers, falling credit/bond ratings, etc. is governing?
I’m not disputing that there is value being placed on the ideological goals being pushed, but governing has a minimum threshold for being considered successful, and I’m not sure if that is being met.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:25 am:
Oh - Louis G Atsaves -
Where o where are these Democrats Rauner speaks of, LOL
I thought Bruce Rauner was different. Bruce is just being Rod Blagojevich, running Rod’s playbook. Wanting Raunerites, not Republicans.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:27 am:
After the governor’s extended and spectacularly revealing performance yesterday, I think only one question remains:
What happened to those strawberries, anyway?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AznmrRZsRQ
- Rufus - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:27 am:
“if he stays strong, leads, and governs, he might just do so.”
Well… one out of three is a good batting average.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:32 am:
Love me some Queeg…
- Ricardo - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:35 am:
Good advice for the Guv, Rich.
But Rauner is just fundamentally different. We try to project rational analysis and strategy to what he says and does — and to what we think he should say and do. But it just doesn’t matter, he’s operating in a political universe we’ve never seen.
It’s kinda Trump-like. How can a political candidate ridicule John McCain for being taken a prisoner of war (not to mention a dozen other ridiculous statements) and survive, let alone thrive???
The normal rules aren’t in place anymore. Strange times.
- thechampaignlife - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:36 am:
Maybe the point isn’t to get a deal. Maybe it is to cause enough chaos to profit off the credit downgrades and defaults. But who would profit and by how much?
- Saluki - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:38 am:
Amen Brother Rich.
- ZC - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:39 am:
Rauner is indeed trying to be Scott Walker, is the long and short of it, in my opinion. During the 2013-14 campaign we knew this was a possibility. Well, it turned out to be true.
The problem is if you look at presidential elections going back for decades, pre-Obama, they suggest that using a broad back-of-the-envelope sketch, IL is about 5% more Democratic statewide than Wisconsin is.
That may not seem like that much,but if Wisconsin was 5% more Democratic than it actually is, Scott Walker would be long gone.
- cdog - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:40 am:
(Back in July, when the Rauner whacky-tactics came into full view, and we were asked by Mr. Miller to describe Rauner and Madigan, I think my observation then, is still true today.)
Rauner is like a fish, flopping on the shore, not quite equipped to deal with the reality of being in the oxygen-filled air, and the impending biological consequences of being in the open air. Flop. flop. flop.
Madigan is an eagle in the tree. Watching, watching, watching. Taking no action to accelerate the inevitable as it it is an unnecessary waste of energy.
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:40 am:
Louis, how many Democratic legislators do you think are itching to gut collective bargaining in the state, but won’t because they are afraid of Madigan?
On the other hand, how many GOP legislators do you think really support the hostage strategy on its merits, and not out of fear of the governor’s big money?
Do you think every GOP legislator really wanted to vote against that K-12 bill the governor signed? Or did they do so because he leaned on them, and then he stabbed them in the back?
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:44 am:
Pain and Competiveness or Gain and Compassion.
We were making strides since 2011 on addresses issues of workers comp, Illinois debt, and yes, the pension problems. In 2014 the new recession for Illinois began, and is rapidly ramping up to a severe depression for many people, organizations, and businesses in Illinois.
Peace through Strength does not have to be achieved through Pain and Competitiveness. Why not try Gain and Compassion first?
- Sangamo Sam - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:45 am:
===Knock off the words and get to work on moving this state - all of this state - forward, for crying out loud.===
Rich, you said what all of us regular folks out here are thinking. I’ve got two kids in colleges here and I’m worried about them being able to graduate. I worked with some of the finest and smartest people in their field - most are AFSCME members. We’re tired of the union bashing. We’re tired of pension “fixes”. We’re tired of this stalemate and we’re looking squarely at The Governor.
- Juvenal - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:49 am:
=== Somebody doesn’t agree with you? Well, OK, I feel your cosmic pain, but stop whining about it and find another way. ===
“The ultimate skill in taking up a strategic position is to have no form. If your position is formless, the most carefully concealed spies will not be able to get a look at it, and the wisest counselors will not be able to lay plans against it.” - The Art of Warfare
Rauner “lost” a year ago, he just hasn’t realized it yet. He’s going to keep to keep compromising, or “caving” as Rich put it, until there is nothing left to cave on if he doesn’t drop the Turnaround Agenda and set his sights on different objectives.
He did something in politics that you would never do in business or in warfare: announce your attack plans to a heavily fortified and entrenched opponent.
The deal with Cullerton only improves Madigan’s position, but it also improves things for Rauner slightly, although neither Madigan nor Cullerton are going to allow him to spend those supposed savings until the Supreme Court signs off on them.
The real question is, do they actually save taxpayers money?
I’m guessing not.
The limitation on raises will not include promotions, which is exactly how the governor will make sure that his own staff still has their nest well feathered.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:52 am:
thechampaignlife- “Maybe the point isn’t to get a deal. Maybe it is to cause enough chaos to profit off the credit downgrades and defaults. But who would profit and by how much?”
******
This is my greatest fear, but there is a kernel of hope if this turns out to be the case. However it will take some serious investigating to make that case. And, by then, it will be too late for Illinois and her People.
- jeffinginchicago - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:53 am:
Hey if the CTU gives up this easily on the pension pickup isn’t Rauner a winner? I mean that saves CPS $170M with just the threat of taking over CPS.
If not Rauner, I a CPS parent City resident feel like a winner. That would be the single largest step we could take.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 10:57 am:
===I mean that saves CPS $170M with just the threat of taking over CPS.===
LOL
Yeah, that’s what did it.
Sure.
I think it was more the fact that legislators in both parties want an end to this sort of thing.
- Politix - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:03 am:
It’s become obvious that Madigan is content to sit back and watching Rauner implode. Peace through strength? Madigan’s playing strength through silence. The silence is deafening and Rauner can’t stand it. Remember all the tough guy press conferences to “call out” Madigan on the budget? They went nowhere. He hijacked the good gov groups’ effort to get budget talks going. That fizzled fast. We had a pretty quiet couple of weeks, thanks to the holidays. But with the pressure of the FY17 budget address being just a few weeks away, naturally they started scrambling. Cut to an astounding week of haughtiness, half-truths and insults and they barely illicited a response, with Madigan communicating via spokesman with answers amounting to “meh.”
The strategy is working and, if what he’s saying is true, that he wants to protect the union class (and I do have my doubts at times) I don’t know that there’s a better option. Not with this administration.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:12 am:
Rauner is just playing Madigan’s own game against him.
And he has nearly $1 billion more than Madigan with which to do so.
- Bull Moose - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:19 am:
Rich, Rauner may have “caved” temporarily on Autism, but he won the war. The Autism Program (TAP) for 1,800 families is completely defunded and has no state contracts. Closures have occurred in multiple locations around the state.
http://www.lincolncourier.com/article/20150923/NEWS/150929793
- Demoralized - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:23 am:
==Rauner is just playing Madigan’s own game against him.==
A lot of people are being hurt by these “games” so I frankly don’t care who started it or who is playing it well. I care about ending it.
- Jason Horwitz - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:23 am:
Agree wholeheartedly. But one quibble: Rauner didn’t “cave” on paying state employees or funding K-12. He wanted that to happen. Allowed him to draw out this budget fight without consequences for people who would scream the loudest.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:23 am:
Bull Moose- were any Federal dollars involved, and if so, does the State have an obligation to return any not used or used inappropriately because they (State) may have moved them to another fund?
- Boss Tweed - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:24 am:
“===”I am waiting for Democratic legislators to do the right thing and start representing the best interests of their districts instead of cowering in fear of Madigan’s campaign war chest.”===”
Who are the Democrats that want to whack unions and trial lawyers, and why are they more scared of Madigan’s money than Rauner’s larger amount of money?
- Bull Moose - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:26 am:
- Anon221 -
I don’t believe this program has a federal component. $4.3 million in state funds went to TAP in FY15.
http://www.voices4kids.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Lack-of-Budget-Dismantling-Critical-State-Services-Final.pdf
- 47th Ward - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:32 am:
Rauner is trying to re-write the rules of the game and Madigan has no intention of allowing that. As soon as the income tax sunset kicked in, Rauner had two choices: cut spending to match the lower revenue or propose new revenue to avoid huge cuts.
So far, he’s done neither. And here we are.
- Mouthy - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:40 am:
“He’s taught us how to work with him,” Rauner said. “Peace through strength.”
And with General Jack D. Ripper it was: “So let’s get going. There’s no other choice. God willing, we will prevail in peace and freedom from fear and in true health through the purity and essence of our natural fluids. God bless you all.
Rauner is moving closer to Jack every day…
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 11:58 am:
Some more casualities of Rauner’s “peace through strength”:
http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2016-01-21/agencies-situation-dire-without-state-budget.html
https://hereandnow.wbur.org/2016/01/21/illinois-budget-education-grants
- Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 12:05 pm:
==I hope Rauner tries hard to realize that thousands of people’s livelihoods are not a political game.==
If you believe this is possible, I have a bunch of bridges to sell. Billionaire Bruce campaigned on running Illinois like a business, and if there’s anything we’ve learned about how he ran businesses, it’s that he did so without regard to the pain it caused thousands of people, if not tens or hundreds of thousands.
- Anon221 - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 12:26 pm:
Review of Rauner’s work-
“This project is termed
“subversive” because “a culture of care rests on values of mutuality, interdependence,
and sharing of burdens—values that challenge many of the assumptions
that undergird our existing institutions” (p. 133). In other words, an ethic
of caring is inconsistent with prevalent self-focused, self-absorbed attitudes stressing
individuality, competition, and personal fulfillment. Rauner also observes
that caring has been devalued as it has been “privatized” and “feminized,” that
is, relegated to the family and viewed as a feminine activity. To rescue caring
from its marginalization in public life, she calls for a cultural shift from independence
to interdependence and from rights to responsibilities.”
Diana Rauner, that is. This was a review of her book, “They Still Pick Me Up When I Fall”: The Role of Caring in Youth Development and Community Life by Diana Mendley Rauner.
http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1008&context=socwork_fac
- Northsider - Friday, Jan 22, 16 @ 12:48 pm:
Joe Bidenopolous @ 12:05 p.m.: Bingo.