Poll: Clinton up by 29, Trump ahead by 17
Thursday, Feb 25, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From We Ask America…
Our Illinois Democratic Primary presidential poll shows Clinton with a formidable 57% to 28% lead over Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s only relative weakness was among Collar County Democrats where she leads Sanders 49% to 43%. As we’ve seen elsewhere, African American voters strongly favor Clinton 69% to 14% over Sanders, although the Vermont Senator shows much stronger support among Hispanic and Asian voters.
In the Illinois Republican Primary, Trump leads with 38% over Marco Rubio (21%) and Ted Cruz (16%). Rubio has surged over the last three-four days…I’m not sure if it will last. Trump wins consistently in all four Illinois regions, and holds a 9 percentage point stronger lead among males than females (43% to 34%). Trump’s strongest numbers stem from the 1-of-3 GOP primary voters, and there’s speculation that some who haven’t voted in primaries in the past will come out for him. We’ll see.
* Regardless of the results, keep in mind that presidential races at this stage can change pretty quickly. If Rubio continues surging, then maybe he’ll make it close. But I’d rather be the Trump campaign than any of the others right now.
Clinton’s numbers are about the same as other Illinois polls we’ve seen, while Sanders’ numbers are worse. Maybe that’s because of Clinton’s Nevada win, which gave her some momentum. African-American voters tend to break late, which could also help explain it. But, whatever the case, primaries are not easy to poll, so never bet your life on any one result.
* Full results and crosstabs…
* Democratic poll
* Republican poll
* Related…
* Sanders to hold rally Thursday at Chicago State University
- Allen D - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 10:58 am:
A Trump / Rubio ticket would be the best of all considered.
- Frenchie Mendoza - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 10:59 am:
Does Rauner go out of his way not to appear with Trump (even if Trump is the eventual nominee)?
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:02 am:
I think it’s very likely that March 15 will, effectively, be the ballgame for both Clinton and Trump.
Sanders is getting pounded by Clinton in the polls all through the South, plus Michigan and Ohio.
Trump has big leads most everywhere, including Florida, is even with Cruz in Texas and up five in Ohio.
The bet here is that either Trump or Clinton will be the next president.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:16 am:
I remember reading a lot of heckling and funny comments about being a Trump delegate just a few months ago.
Not so funny any more.
- AC - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:18 am:
How folks coalesce around a winner is fascinating, if not entirely rational. With these types of polling numbers, the candidates further down the ticket are the ones that matter, for those that care about influencing the outcome.
- Honeybear - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:20 am:
So why was it that there was so much support for Kasich? Didn’t someone just leave for a job with him? Was that just an excuse to leave Rauner? If so that’s rather telling.
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:22 am:
Hillary cannot beat trump. her past provides him with everything he needs to win, and then some. he can hammer her daily with accusations about past scandals and keep her on the defensive right up until November. to say nothing of what happens if she gets indicted during the general campaign.
- @MisterJayEm - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:26 am:
“A Trump / Rubio ticket would be the best of all considered.”
Seems they’ve already locked up the highly prized pro-homeless children vote.
– MrJM
- Wensicia - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:29 am:
I don’t see how Hillary prevails over Trump unless she can frighten the electorate over his disastrous presidency should he succeed.
- pundent - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:30 am:
==Hillary cannot beat trump.== There’s no doubt that Trump has very loyal supporters and I suspect we’d count you as part of that group. What remains to be seen is his ability to grow that support with a campaign who’s sole strategy seems predicated on daily insults. It’s hard to see how degrading people allows you to build a base of voters in a general election. And the scandals and imminent indictment are more of the Fox News variety scare tactics.
- NixonHead - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:33 am:
They need to poll the IQ level of Trump supporters vs practically any other candidate’s supporters. Man would that make for some great late-night comedy skits.
- CharlieKratos - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:35 am:
Clinton only has a very slight lead over Trump in polling right now. If she wins the primary, Trump will come out “guns ablazin’” and demolish her. The only hope we have for a non-Trump presidency is Sanders. He’s currently polling very strongly against Trump (he wins by 10+ points) and he doesn’t have the dirt, real or exaggerated, that Clinton has.
- GA Watcher - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:35 am:
Interesting to see that Governor Kasich, the choice of many of the established Republican leaders in our State, is polling less than 10 percent.
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:39 am:
pundent: “There’s no doubt that Trump has very loyal supporters and I suspect we’d count you as part of that group.”
ha, no. Bernie sanders, Bernie sanders, Bernie sanders all day, into the night, wake up tomorrow and Bernie sanders all over again.
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:46 am:
Some of these comments are why Trump has a chance to get elected. George W. Bush got re-elected in large part because of a similar elite disdain of all red state voters as stupid nativist reactionaries. I know - I campaigned for Kerry in one of those states and talked to a lot of voters who would acknowledge Bush’s mistakes on a host of things but were voting to get payback for what they saw as disrespect. I like Hillary - I think her performance as a White House aid is underrated and that she’d make a good president. But if you think the people who are supporting Trump are just a bunch of idiots voting their prejudices over any semblance of logical thinking, well, bless your hearts.
- pundent - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:47 am:
Homer J. Quinn - My apologies for the mischaracterization. But I do have a question. If scandals and potential indictments are the Achilles heal of the Clinton campaign, why doesn’t Sanders make mention of them?
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:48 am:
Bernie is quite proud and vocal about never having run a negative campaign.
- Thoughts Matter - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:48 am:
I will not vote Trump regardless of his Demicratic opponent. I won’t ever vote for Sanders either.
Every person left in the race us a question of the Lessor if bad choices. Kasich interests me, but after the past year of Illinois politics…
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:51 am:
The most amazing thing about this election year: the best economic stretch in recent memory was the Clinton years, brought about by a modestly more progressive income tax system. Yet every candidate runs to either far to the left of Bill Clinton or to the right. The closest anyone came to his blue dog center-leftism was Jim Webb, who went nowhere.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:51 am:
Geez, don’t start measuring the tasteful, monogrammed, gold lame drapes for the Trump Oval Office just yet.
His overall negative rating is 57%. Clinton’s is 53%. Hardly a slam dunk for either of them.
Wiser to look at the electoral college and chart Trump’s path to victory there.
Put it this way — Trump could win every state Romney did, then add Florida, Ohio and Virginia — and he’d still lose.
But David Duke came out for Trump today, claiming a vote against him is “treason to your heritage.”
So he’s got that going for him.
- walker - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:52 am:
With Wordslinger on this, but would move it up — it might be effectively over by the time Mar 15 rolls around. We shall see.
CSU rally right on point for Bernie campaign.
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 11:55 am:
Bernie doesn’t run negative campaigns, likely closely related to the fact that he doesn’t have Super PAC support, which is why a lot of people support him
- D.P.Gumby - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:02 pm:
To imagine that Clinton is a more scandal rich environment than T-Rump is laughable. No one has plowed the very rich negative turf of T-Rump yet.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:09 pm:
If Tom Ricketts is the clone of Ted Cruz, is Donald Trump a doppelganger for Rusty Staub of the Montreal Expos?
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:11 pm:
if Clinton tried to attack trump’s scandals it would be like that adage about wrestling with a pig. The Donald would love it because he could be on twitter and cable news at once playing the victim and dealing even lower blows.
- Illinoisvoter - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:20 pm:
Early yet for anyone to call the movers. Don’t
even know how many players are in the game with
Bloomberg still quiet. Clinton’s weakness in
Ohio, the Supreme Court conformation mess,
China in economic freefall. It’s a long aisle
to the alter.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:27 pm:
They need to poll the IQ level of Trump supporters vs practically any other candidate’s supporters. Man would that make for some great late-night comedy skits.
Jefferson
Jackson
Lincoln
Bryant
Theodore Roosevelt
Smith
Willkie
Goldwater
McGovern
Reagan
W. Bush
Obama
Take your pick, the same has been said about all of them. If you believe that a candidate’s supporters are beneath you, you aren’t smart enough to have air an informed opinion. Voters aren’t stupid, even when you are convinced that they are.
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:30 pm:
Bloomberg is only jumping in if sanders wins the primary. he’s a threat by the establishment to scuttle the democratic party if they nominate someone wall street can’t control. basically if Bernie wins, Bloomberg will play the spoiler and throw it to trump in order to keep the presidency friendly to the financial industry.
- hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 12:37 pm:
Where is the GOP pushback against Trump?
Can’t they at least run a fun commercial or send a mailer with Trump palling around with Blagojevich on Celeb Apprentice?
- Because I said so... - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:03 pm:
Trump may have loyal voters but everyone else is terrified at the thought of him as president.
- CrazyHorse - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:07 pm:
Sanders or Trump for me. If Sanders loses primary, I’ll vote for a Republican President for first time in my life.
- Honeybear - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:20 pm:
Not being challenging here but I wonder how the poll was conducted. If it was done over landline phones, I can totally understand the results for Clinton. Only older folks have landlines anymore. I can also see the large African American population pulling for her as opposed to Bernie. Just wondering
- CharlieKratos - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:21 pm:
Cruz scares me more than Trump. Bernie’s the only one is love to vote for. I’ll go with Clinton, but it’ll be the same as when I voted for Quinn. I’ll hold my nose.
- Jack Stephens - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:22 pm:
I’d love to see Trump propose amending the Constitution of the United States of America that essentially bans the President from filing a vacancy to the Supreme Court in their last year of office.
I wonder how Scalia, an “originalist” when it suited his purpose, would feel about it?
Hopefully Trump never sees the Oval Office. I’m still waiting for money back from the Iraq War (remember we were going to be greeted as liberators, and oil revenue would pay for it)….he thinks Mexico is going to pay for a wall and love it? And the Pope is Jewish, too.
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:22 pm:
if Hillary gets the nomination i’ll gladly vote for a woman: Jill Stein!
- CharlieKratos - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:29 pm:
Jill Stein is great, but it’s be a throwaway vote. Don’t get me wrong, I completely understand a vote on principles, but that kind of vote is how we got Rauner.
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:32 pm:
I’m not a Hillary fan (I’d vote for almost anyone else first) but if she comes into Illinois with that big of a lead, it may be less of a reason for Illinois D voters to pull a D primary ballot.
With no reason to pull a D ballot, voters in McCann’s counties might be more likely to cross over and pull an R ballot to help him.
- CharlieKratos - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:34 pm:
RNUG, that could very well be. AFSCME members have been saying as much, even at the Sanders kickoff gathering, from what I’ve heard.
- Mouthy - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:40 pm:
Trumps negatives are higher then Hillary’s and in the end that’s what’s going to win it for her, along with the woman’s vote. Get used to saying President Clinton again…
- Huh? - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:49 pm:
Anybody who values honesty and votes for Clinton ought to have their heads examined. She has a very long track record of hiding what she is doing, obfuscating when caught and changing her story when pressed.
To have a presidential candidate under investigation during the campaign is mind boggling.
- CharlieKratos - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
Trump is like the kid who you don’t punish even when he has done things you don’t like because, “That’s just Trump”. Hillary is the kid you ground for coming in 5 minutes late because, “she should know better”. Also, she was at a party with Goldman Sachs.
- AC - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
That was my takeaway as well, the presidential race in Illinois looks to be unimportant compared to other races further down the ballot, such as McCann/Benton. Why not focus on races where your vote could really make a difference?
- Jack Stephens - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:09 pm:
Trumpers:
Please call me when the wall with Mexico is complete and we’ve deposited the check. Will we be sending the Mexicans down there before it goes up?
Trump wouldnt know honesty if it came up and introduced itself to him.
- Chucktownian - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:10 pm:
I think Trump will be the nominee and lose in the biggest landslide we’ve seen since the Stevenson-Ike races in the 1950s. With months to focus on his negatives, he’ll be done. He will be lucky to win 40% of the popular with his negatives. He could lose by more than 15 points in the popular. The Dems will win back the senate and likely come close to the House.
In response Trump’s supporters will of course riot and burn buildings down but, hey, they do that every day anyway. The rest of us will breathe a big sigh of relief.
- Touré's Latte - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:17 pm:
Can any of the R’s here explain how so many DuPage Republicans hopped on the Kasich wagon? Not even double digit polling support.
PS- Thanks for the tabs.
- hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:17 pm:
A Sanders supporter who casts a vote for Trump in the general election is doing nothing but stomping all over the Sanders agenda. At the very least a Sanders supporter that cared about Citizens United should vote for a Hillary nominee to get that 5th scotus justice to overturn it.
Now if people are just Sanders voters because they hate Hillary then I get voting Trump…
- Timmeh - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:32 pm:
I think Trump will shift in the general election and people will vote for him. What he ends up doing while in office is anyone’s guess.
- Enviro - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:37 pm:
Most of the Democratic US Senators and Representatives have endorsed Hillary Clinton.
She has many supporters. Even Bernie likes her.
- Anon221 - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:42 pm:
I wonder how many tables Trump or his supporters will buy for March 11th (2nd Annual Governor’s Dinner to honor Rauner). Will Trump be at the head table next to Rauner??? Some interesting conversations to be had that night!
- Enviro - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:43 pm:
Bernie Sanders quote: “I’ve known Hillary Clinton for 25 years. Maybe I shouldn’t say this: I like Hillary Clinton. I respect Hillary Clinton.”
- Stumpy's bunker - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:46 pm:
What was Hillary doing in the time frame that Bernie Sanders was being carried away by Chicago coppers at a down-and-dirty, old school, black & white civil rights incident?
Targeted voting blocs want to know…
- Homer J. Quinn - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:49 pm:
stumpy: Hillary would tell you herself that she was a “Goldwater Girl” at the time.
- Huh? - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:52 pm:
After being a Goldwater girl, she got fired from the Nixon Watergate investigation for lying and being untruthful.
- Honeybear - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
-Jill Stein is great, but it’s be a throwaway vote-
I always get grumpy at this thought. I don’t feel any intentional vote is a throwaway vote. Now the person who votes just to vote and knows nothing of the candidate. That might be a throwaway vote. I’ll be voting for Stein if Hillary wins the nomination. I voted for her last Presidential election. I knew Obama would carry the state and I wanted third party to get more votes. No I’m not throwing my vote away. I am purposefully and thoughtfully voting my convictions.
- Enviro - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
Homer @ 2:49 pm:
“stumpy: Hillary would tell you herself that she was a “Goldwater Girl” at the time.”
Hillary was 17 when Goldwater ran for President.
- Stumpy's bunker - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 3:05 pm:
A Goldwater girl from pretty Park Ridge commands the minority vote.
Republicans of the 50th Senate District are seriously contemplating voting for a highway patrolman who’s bacically promising not to listen to a word they say.
It’s official. I’ve entered some freaky, bizarro world. Me and Ol’ Grandad are headed for the woods.
- Blue dog dem - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 3:05 pm:
Can somebody help old blue dog out? What is Hillarys position on TPP this week?
- MSIX - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 3:15 pm:
I’ll be voting DEM if for no other reason than the SCOTUS vacancy (or vacancies). The thought of any GOP prez having the opportunity to load the court the other way is too depressing and disheartening to consider.
- BigFoot - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 3:36 pm:
Trump scares me more then Mrs. Clinton.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 3:39 pm:
My brother heard Kasich on a campus in Virginia and described him as a “raging moderate”. In today’s divided world, he would make a good President.
To avoid Trump as the nominee; Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich need to work together. Rubio and Kasich need to pull out of Texas. Cruz and Kasich need to pull out of Florida and Illinois. Cruz and Rubio need to pull out of Ohio and Michigan.
The defense against Trump is a brokered convention. Do the non-Trump candidates have small enough egos to work together?
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 4:18 pm:
Sorry. Anonymous at 3:39 was me.
- Cheryl44 - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 4:37 pm:
Donald Trump is not running for, nor will he ever be President.
- There is power in a union... - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 4:55 pm:
“Can somebody help old blue dog out? What is Hillarys position on TPP this week?”
She is against it until the election is over. Then… under the bus the unions will go…
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 6:07 pm:
I saw a poll today that has a very high unfavorable rating for Trump among Latinos, nearly 8 in 10, with nearly 7 in 10 finding him very unfavorable. Democrats and Hillary in general are much more favored by Latinos than Republicans, including Rubio. This is one poll only, so of course we take it with a relative grain of salt.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/wapo-univision-poll-2016/en/?tid=a_inl
Hillary and The Donald look strong now, but who knows what will ultimately happen.
There is a Republican debate tonight. How will the establishment perform tonight? Will Rubio attack Trump or will he focus on positive messaging? What do they do with Trump?
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 7:03 pm:
And yet Sanders has moved ahead of Clinton nationally:
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/02/24/new-poll-shows-sanders-ahead-clinton-widest-mar
- Quiet Sage - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 7:06 pm:
Wrong link above. See:
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/24/bernie_sanders_has_led_hillary_clinton_in_this_major_national_poll_nearly_all_month/
- Blue dog dem - Thursday, Feb 25, 16 @ 8:45 pm:
There is Power….. I fear another Clinton more than RTW.