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Poll: Clinton with huge lead, while Trump’s ahead of a divided pack

Wednesday, Mar 9, 2016

* OK, this is a bit dangerous after how ridiculous the pollsters looked last night in Michigan, but a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll has Hillary Clinton with a huge lead over Bernie Sanders among likely voters

If the Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?

    Hillary Clinton 62.30%
    Bernie Sanders 25.00%
    Someone else 2.42%
    Undecided 10.28%

She’s beating Sanders in every region and in every demographic and she’s doing particularly well among women and African-Americans.

From the pollster…

We see Mrs. Clinton’s strong lead wane as March 15 nears and she could—conceivably— end up under 60 percent Election Day, but she still holds an extraordinary lead over Mr. Sanders. Her strength among African American voters remains incredibly strong.

The Tribune’s recent poll had Clinton leading Sanders 67-25.

* OK, now on to likely Republican voters

If the Illinois Republican Primary for president were held today, for whom would you vote?

    Donald Trump 32.64%
    Ted Cruz 19.90%
    John Kasich 18.41%
    Marco Rubio 11.34%
    Someone else 1.49%
    Undecided 16.22%

* From the pollster…

We see Mr. Trump’s lead shrink slightly over the last 10 days, especially among the most likely voters (those who have voted in all three of the last three primaries). Both Cruz and Kasich are nipping at his heels among this (usually) older set.

Kasich does best among “R-3″ voters, meaning those who have taken primary ballots three times in the past three primaries. Trump does best among R-1’s.

The Tribune’s recent poll had Trump at 32, Cruz at 22, Rubio at 21 and Kasich at 18 with 7 percent undecided. So, it looks like Rubio is tanking here. But… I dunno. Not gonna make any hard claims this year.

* Methodology for the Democratic poll

This poll was conducted on March 7-8, 2016 using both automated (recorded) on landline phones and live interview calls to cell phones. In all, 994 likely Democrat voters completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. In total, 400 of the responses came from cell phones… For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.11% at the 95% confidence level

* Methodology for the Republican poll

This poll was conducted on March 7-8, 2016 using both automated (recorded) on landline phones and live interview calls to cell phones. In all, 1,009 likely Republican voters completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. In total, 400 of the responses came from cell phones… For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.09% at the 95% confidence level

* Related…

* Kirk holds big lead over little-known Republican Senate challenger: But the survey also revealed a warning sign for Kirk for the fall: barely half of Republican voters approve of his job performance during his five-plus years in the Senate.

* Duckworth easily outdistancing foes in Democratic Senate race: The survey showed Duckworth with 72 percent support compared with only 8 percent for former Chicago Urban League CEO Andrea Zopp and 4 percent for state Sen. Napoleon Harris, of Harvey, with another 16 percent undecided ahead of Tuesday’s primary… Nine out of 10 voters knew Duckworth, while about half said they were unfamiliar with Zopp or Harris. What’s more, nearly 7 in 10 Democratic voters have a favorable view of the congresswoman.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

88 Comments
  1. - obvious... - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:03 am:

    the Dem polls…because…CHICAGO.


  2. - Huh? - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:06 am:

    Nobody in my family will be voting for Clinton. We would vote for a rabid yellow dog before we voted for her.

    Don’t count out Sanders. He has more support outside the South than Clinton.


  3. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:06 am:

    This is where Bernie’s fight for equal rights began. He should do better among minority voters as more people learn about his history in Chicago.


  4. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:07 am:

    The winners in Michigan were the guys saying that they will return jobs to America. Bernie and Donald on spot on. Call them Socialist, Fascist or Racist, but their supporters don’t care about any of that. Trump is right, he can shoot someone without losing voters. Sanders is right, he doesn’t have to have a lily-white voters to win.

    Blue collar America voted last night in Michigan. They will support the candidate who promises a return to days when you don’t have to have a college degree so that you can sweep a hospital floor, or wear a security guard uniform.

    Illinois is in play.


  5. - Annonin' - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:08 am:

    So Ds can give up a few points to help get McCann in and “you know who(s)” out. Tribbies #s say same for U.S. Senate race…..How will $uper$tars cope ?
    Should Ds go over to help Edgar too — that could be too much — but worth some consideration
    Should be fun few days


  6. - CrazyHorse - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:15 am:

    My family and I will be voting for Sanders. We will either write him in for the general or vote Trump.


  7. - Feds - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:15 am:

    The poll numbers will Chang dramatically after she is indicted


  8. - Jon - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    I can see Clinton winning, but not by the margin indicated in the polling. I’ve heard some discussions regarding younger voters, who have been appearing to support Sander, not being represented in the polling data, thus leading to the “surprises”.

    I’m somewhat surprised that Kasich hasn’t been focusing on Illinois as I think he has a shot here to finish second.


  9. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:17 am:

    I still don’t understand why the African American community supports Clinton. Paid prisons, 3 strikes, the list goes on and on. Sanders, on the other hand, marched with MLK, has been arrested protesting segregation, is against private prisons, etc…

    It must be due to ignorance and name recognition… In other words, the same thing Trump had going for him. I always thought that it was mainly the informed that voted in primaries. Guess I was wrong.


  10. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:20 am:

    I truly believe the tide turned for Bernie last night. Mar 15th is plenty of time for him to close the gap in Illinois. He got my vote yesterday. After I learned that Hillary spoke to GTCR in 2014 while Rauner was running against Quinn for 280k dollars, I knew I could never vote for her, even if she is the nominee.


  11. - Excessively Rabid - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:22 am:

    The polling is out of date for the process now in place: “Have you voted? For whom? If not, which of the following would you vote for?”


  12. - Stones - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:22 am:

    I watched Trump’s victory speech last night. Wasn’t sure if he was selling steaks, bottled water, wine or declaring victory. Strange national political year indeed!


  13. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:23 am:

    25% for Sanders seems awfully low to me. This is a state that overwhelmingly voted for min wage increases and a millionaires tax two years ago. Plus college students would have extra reason to be political in this state with the lack of a higher ed budget. And Bernie could win over more Downstate Dems than expected on guns and anti-NAFTA sentiment.


  14. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:25 am:

    What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors. But, people will for what they want to hear.


  15. - Grimm - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:27 am:

    Bernie all…the…way.


  16. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    I think the biggest thing that could hurt Sanders in Illinois is many the trade and some union people that would be most likely to vote for him will be pulling ballots for Trump. Look at the early voting Republican totals in the far Northwest and Southwest side of Chicago.


  17. - From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    The Sanders number feels low even before last night. I still expect Hillary to win here, but also expect it to be much closer than it is now.

    The GOP “establishment” wasting it’s time with Rubio over the last month really hurt Kasich. And now unless something really weird happens, they’re looking at Trump with an outside shot of Cruz winning that nomination. What a mess.

    Will be interesting to see if there are a lot of GOP ballots pulled in ‘typical’ Dem areas, especially in areas with non-competitive local races. It won’t be a ton of votes, but you could see Kasich being hurt by the State’s Attorney race in Cook. I think that’s going to keep some Dems, even if they have little else to vote for, pulling a Dem ballot.


  18. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    Hillary’s Park Ridge and Obama ties may be the only thing that saves her in IL. I expect a win, but not by 20%+. Trump is the beneficiary of more interest in the R race from the disaffected.


  19. - From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    ===What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors.===

    I think it’s people voting against the establishment ignoring them/taking them for granted for decades.


  20. - the Cardinal - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    Have seen Lots of Bernie signs in Illinois, not so much for Hill. Signs don’t vote but angry disenfranchised people do.


  21. - Give Me A Break - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    In our D voting home in Springfield, we have gotten nothing or heard anything from the Clinton camp, but twice in the last two weeks a Bernie supporter has rang the doorbell and chatted with me about why I should support Bernie.


  22. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:30 am:

    “I truly believe the tide turned for Bernie last night.”

    To me Sanders has been by far the most likable and trustworthy candidate. He’s consistent in his message and doesn’t pander. Sanders has a great message for African-Americans and Latinos. Looking at Trump’s statements, rallies and the type of people he’s reaching, Sanders has a great opportunity to pick up much AA and Latino support. He will absolutely need it in the General.


  23. - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:32 am:

    “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” — Hunter S. Thompson

    If Mr. Thompson had known this election was coming, he’d never have killed himself.

    – MrJM


  24. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:32 am:

    …people will vote for what they want to hear.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:34 am:

    I sure would not want to put all my eggs in Bernie’s basket. The first crisis at his age will probably give him a heart attack. He looks like he should be in a retirement home


  26. - Watchman - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:35 am:

    So, “Huh?” you’ll vote for the outspoken Sanders over Clinton, who you’d rank behind “a rabid yellow dog.”

    So you’re voting for an old yeller over Old Yeller?


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:37 am:

    What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors.

    The reality is that people desperate for change are willing to vote for the guys who see the need for that change. If they wanted to debate solutions, Bush would still be in the running.

    I’ve seen over a dozen presidential candidates surprised by this, and out of the running. I see busloads of journalists, pundits and political people in shock over Sanders’ and Trump’s victories. Everyone with an income over $200,000 a year is calling them both names because they just can’t seem to wrap their brains around the fact that people are angry.

    Anyone running in 2016 could have been the candidate saying what Trump and Sanders is winning with. Millions spent on political insiders, and NO ONE figured this out? You have to wonder just how disconnected and arrogant our political commentators have become if they didn’t see this coming.

    Everyone I know, knows someone who has lost their jobs, careers and families over the past decade over this economy. Everyone I know is watching jobs moving overseas, riches offshored, and neighbors losing everything. No one watching politics thought we reached a tipping point after eight years of poor economic growth?

    Voters don’t want to hear any more excuses why they are afraid of losing everything. They are tired of being told that they are ignorant, narrow minded, uninformed, lemmings, socialists, throwbacks, or any of the other insults.

    They know what they want, and it isn’t what we have now.


  28. - a drop in - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:40 am:

    For those calling for a Clinton/Sandars ticket, that the only way to keep speaker of the house Paul Ryan in play for President.


  29. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:41 am:

    Sanders is only 4 years older than Clinton. Besides, if he chooses Tulsi Gabbard as a running mate, he’ll be super hard to beat.


  30. - olddog - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:42 am:

    @ Honeybear 11:20 — thanks for mentioning that speech of Clinton’s. I hadn’t been aware of it till now. Interesting that she keeps transcripts of her speeches.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/Felsenthal-Files/February-2016/Hillary-Clinton-speech-GTCR/


  31. - DoubleDown - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:43 am:

    Voting for Trump tuesday. Will not ever vote for Kirk again, Will hold my nose and vote for Duckworth.


  32. - the Cardinal - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:44 am:

    Illinois didn’t particularly like Hillabeans 9 years ago what’s changed?


  33. - RNUG - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:46 am:

    == What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors. But, people will for what they want to hear. ==

    Maybe I’m naive, but I think most voters (but not necessarily the college kids) realize Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders can’t deliver on their promises. But the voters DO expect them to make an attempt at it.

    Bernie has even been clear in some of his speeches that it is more about starting a movement than immediate gratification. If he gets elected, I would expect him to work towards his stated goals and actually get a little movement.

    In Donald’s case, I would expect him to end up mostly frustrated like Rauner is (and Perot would have been) on achieving his “outsider” agenda. But I can see him getting some of his program that matches the GOP agenda passed.

    Like others, I expect Bernie to do a lot better than the polls indicate. I also expect Kasich to place second.


  34. - otis - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:52 am:

    Well this soon to be unemployed university employee (March 12) will be pulling a GOP primary ballot to vote against anybody the Gov is supporting and voting for Trump. Some of these races will determine the general election unless the Dems can find a candidate to run. As far as Trump goes the enemy of the enemy might be your friend.


  35. - paddyrollingstone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 11:57 am:

    Excellent insights at usual in the comments, especially Grandson of Man, To me Sanders has been by far the most likable and trustworthy candidate. ” and Vanilla Man’s comments. As a D, I am left with the plain fact that when the knives come out for Bernie Sanders, it will be devastating to him in a general election. HRC is far far from perfect but she can win and I am convinced that Bernie cannot.


  36. - JB13 - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:01 pm:

    Illinois Republicans certainly do have a hard decision this time around. The state is more than relevant in the nomination fight, so, unless Trump’s your guy, based on the delegate count and states won thus far, Cruz has to get your vote. Right? Because if Cruz doesn’t take it, what is the plausible path forward for either Kasich or Rubio (Chicago Tribune endorsement notwithstanding)? So it would seem to me, the only message being sent by Republicans voting for anyone other than Cruz is, they’re OK with The Donald as the 2016 Republican nominee, and all the changes to the party his supporters will bring once they become the new establishment/co-opt the existing one.


  37. - Qui Tam - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:03 pm:

    “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” — Hunter S. Thompson

    If Mr. Thompson had known this election was coming, he’d never have killed himself.=

    – MrJM wins!


  38. - Katich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    I expect to Trump to win in the GE if his Democratic opponent is Hillary, and if he doesn’t beat her, the next “outsider” will likely express greater intolerance and xenophobia.

    Who has done greater harm to the US since the late 60s: the KKK or Henry Kissinger? I’d go with Kissinger as being more harmful.

    The GOP “establishment” tried to unite around Trump’s refusal to speak out against his apparent KKK endorsement, yet Clinton gets away with taking pride in Kissinger stating she would be among the best on foreign policy. Hillary even said she would seek Kisssinger’s advice.

    I wouldn’t vote for Hillary even if Jesus AND Bernie endorsed her.

    Jill Stein if Bernie loses.


  39. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:13 pm:

    Already voted for Clinton, Duckworth and Alvarez.


  40. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:15 pm:

    Cruz scares me way more than Trump. Unless you’re a wealthy heterosexual caucasian Christian, he should scare you too. Even then, the country would be totally screwed up by a Cruz presidency.


  41. - Kasich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:23 pm:

    ==What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors. But, people will for what they want to hear. ==

    I’m surprised that the above is presented as an argument AGAINST voting for a candidate, as if attempting to achieve less guarantees success or less opposition.

    If Hillary were to win the general election, the GOP won’t give in to her just because she attempts to accomplish less.


  42. - ZC - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:24 pm:

    1) Younger voter turnout very important for Sanders next Tuesday, MI polling underestimated it. On the other hand it sounds like this polling -is- incorporating some cell phones, the lack thereof which may have contributed to the MI pollster miss.

    2) Are IL Dems as protectionist as Michigan voters? That looks like an anti-free trade vote yesterday in part, on both sides. Trump probably has a better chance of taking MI than just about any other state in the Democrats’ “blue wall” next Nov.

    3) How many Hillary supporters take Republican ballots next Tuesday to help stop Trump?

    4) African-American voters in Michigan were relatively much more pro-Bernie (like only 2/3 Hillary) than in the South. Does that pattern continue?

    Tune in same time, next week.


  43. - Union Leader - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:24 pm:

    I voted for Senator Sanders the other day, as did my 22 year old son. He told me the kids on his college campus are all voting for Sanders. I think the polls are not reflective of how the younger voters are leaning.
    Don’t forget, 10 months ago with little name recognition and down by 60 points in nationally polling, he has been competitive and has won caucuses and primaries. Sanders was able to close the gap in Michigan and then win there. All the pundits said he had no chance and he is proving them wrong!

    Hate to say it, but I am thinking I know why Sarah Palin called them the Lame Stream Media. They all seem to be in the tank for HRC, especially MSNBC and it is very disheartening as a Progressive Democrat.

    Feel the Bern!


  44. - From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:25 pm:

    Meanwhile, in Trib Fantasy Land…


  45. - train111 - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:27 pm:

    I have to agree with Vanilla Man. The company I work for finished moving its manufacturing to Juarez last month.

    They made 6.9 billion in profits last year, paid their CEO 27 mil, and have 12 billion in foreign accounts so they don’t have to pay taxes on it.

    IMHO the corporate line about them being poor, needing more money to invest into the business and so forth is noting but pure BS. Least they could do was not patronize us with spun corporate tripe.

    Anyways, what they did do was create a room full of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump supporters, but still the corporate managers
    have their heads so far in the sand, they wonder why.


  46. - CrazyHorse - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:28 pm:

    ==They know what they want, and it isn’t what we have now.==

    Nice job Vanilla Man! Oftentimes the simplest statement is the best answer to a complex question.


  47. - Katich Walker, Jr. - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:32 pm:

    The anti-Trump GOP “establishment” tried uniting to call attention to the KKK apparently supporting Trump.

    Who has harmed this nation more since the late 60s: Henry Kissinger or the KKK?

    Hillary does not reject Kissinger and even suggested that she would accept Kissinger’s advice.

    In a general election, I would vote for Jill Stein.

    I doubt I could vote for Hillary even if Bernie endorsed her.


  48. - Johnny Pyle Driver - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:33 pm:

    I’m not saying Bernie’s going to win Illinois, or even get within single digits, but to me, those numbers for white voters seem very off, especially white males. They just don’t seem to match up with what we’re seeing everywhere else in the country. Though age may be the missing factor here


  49. - Lakefront Liberal - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:34 pm:

    ===What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors.===

    Don’t ignore the power of executive orders. I read a column recently that said that everything we need to do to confront climate change can be done within existing law i.e. with executive orders. I’m sure there are many other areas like that. The president’s choices of cabinet members, department heads, etc, also have a huge effect. Bernie can do all those things with no help from anyone, and I would a million times rather have him making those choices and setting that course than Hillary, or god forbid, Donald (who for example currently surrounds himself with climate deniers).

    Beyond that, with Bernie as president we have two years of him talking about what changes we as a country we need to make, which can set us up for that change in 2018. With Hillary I see two years of incrementalism that leaves people just as mad as before and with no plan or leadership showing them a positive direction to take that anger.


  50. - Johnny Pyle Driver - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:38 pm:

    “What many fail to realize is neither Trump or Sanders will be able to deliver what they’re promising any more than their establishment predecessors. But, people will for what they want to hear.”

    ——————————————–
    It’s very difficult for me to comprehend this statement I’ve seen plastered all over social media and the news. Do people really think that Congress is going to work with Hillary or Ted Cruz? Hillary is probably less popular among that crowd than Obama and Ted Cruz isn’t even liked by his own party…


  51. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:44 pm:

    Republicans in Congress, for the most part, like and respect Sanders, even when they don’t agree with him politically. The same isn’t true for Cruz and Clinton.


  52. - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:51 pm:

    The Tribune Editorial Board has endorsed Marco Rubio for the GOP nomination. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-marco-rubio-tribune-endorsement-clinton-sanders-0310-md-20160309-story.html

    I presume that this means a Rubio presidency would devastate the nation in the manner of a hurricane.

    – MrJM


  53. - Harry - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 12:51 pm:

    Rubio is tanking everywhere, he destroyed his wholesome image when he attacked Trump the way he did.

    Doesn’t really matter, Hillary will win Illinois now and again in November, against whomever…


  54. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:00 pm:

    Trump is a Julius Caesar type, pretending to care about the masses all the while gathering power absolutely for himself and his cronies.

    Very dangerous things happening our country.


  55. - Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm:

    When Donald Trump is leading in Illinois that can’t bode well for the GOP establishment here.


  56. - Responsa - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm:

    Do you remember all the previous threads we’ve had here that discuss how newspaper endorsements basically don’t mean a hill of beans anymore since the internet allows voters to do their own research and reach their own conclusions? Yeah, I do, too. They are worthless.


  57. - AC - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm:

    “I love the right to work” Trump’s success in Union households is a mystery. The man scares me, but he has a talent. He can destroy a person with one or two words like “Little” or “Low Energy” so I can’t imagine what he could do with a more coherent effort involving an entire sentence.

    I’m not sure if polls have gotten worse or if we just forget the inaccurate ones.


  58. - Responsa - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:18 pm:

    Also, vast sums of money are being wasted on polling, IMO. People increasingly hang up on annoying pollsters (both live and mechanical) or make stuff up–and are turning off their cell phones this week to avoid political calls. Do the ones who deign to participate in phone surveys and polls really represent the electorate in any reasonable or logical manner? Do the polling companies ever report honestly on the number of hangups they endured before they could even get enough participants to meet a hiring entity’s requirements or publish a “conclusion”?


  59. - DoubleDown - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:20 pm:

    I do not know who is running Trumps campaign but I would like to know.

    Last night Trump had Paul O’Neil (Baseball player) and Jack Nicklaus, both were born in Franklin County, Ohio at his rally. Pretty smart talking about them. Franklin county I believe is where everyone fights for votes in Ohio. Correct me if I am wrong please


  60. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:20 pm:

    - Boone’s is Back - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:07 pm:

    When Donald Trump is leading in Illinois that can’t bode well for the GOP establishment here.

    OR

    When Donald Trump is leading that can’t bode well for America.


  61. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:20 pm:

    Twenty-five percent for Sanders seems way low to me, as well, but that’s just intuition.

    I’ll be curious to see if there’s an autopsy by the pollsters of Michigan as to how they got it so wrong.

    Perhaps the same assumptions are going into the Illinois poll.


  62. - Amalia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:23 pm:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/26/why-electing-hillary-in-16-is-more-important-than-electing-obama-in-08.html

    jon favreau’s piece on why he is for Hillary. it is quite illuminating.


  63. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:32 pm:

    Responsa - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:18 pm:

    Also, vast sums of money are being wasted on polling, IMO. People increasingly hang up on annoying pollsters (both live and mechanical) or make stuff up–and are turning off their cell phones this week to avoid political calls. Do the ones who deign to participate in phone surveys and polls really represent the electorate in any reasonable or logical manner? Do the polling companies ever report honestly on the number of hangups they endured before they could even get enough participants to meet a hiring entity’s requirements or publish a “conclusion”?

    Who cares? It’s private money. Don’t read the polls if they bother you.


  64. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:33 pm:

    Polls are histrically very accurate. Yes, sometimes they miss, but that is a rare occurrence.

    Basic statistics.


  65. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:33 pm:

    ===I’ll be curious to see if there’s an autopsy by the pollsters of Michigan as to how they got it so wrong.===

    I read a snippet somewhere that said many pollsters based their model on the Michigan primary in 2008. Hillary won, but since Obama failed to qualify for the ballot, his campaign pushed a “Vote for Undeclared” message. Hillary beat “Undeclared” 54-46, but turnout was horribly low.

    So if that was the basis for any of these 2016 polls, they were modeled on very flawed assumptions.

    Sorry I don’t have a link. Might have been Political Wire.


  66. - X-prof - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:34 pm:

    Under Methodology at the bottom of the Democratic poll it reads, “All participants were asked to confirm their intent to vote the *Republican* Primary. Only those who answered in the positive continued with the other questions.”

    It’s most likely a cut and paste error, or … it might have affected the results.

    Pretty cool, Rich, co-sponsoring the poll.


  67. - TinyDancer(FKA Sue) - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:35 pm:

    Yuge lead


  68. - Anon III - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 1:48 pm:

    Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 for two reasons: first, he was not Hilary Clinton; second, he was not George Bush.

    Clinton still has the same charm.


  69. - Amalia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:00 pm:

    Republicans in the Senate like Hillary. or have you forgotten her McCain and Graham friendships.


  70. - Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:03 pm:

    After Michigan, this is a ludicrous poll result. Michigan was THE turning point in the Democratic presidential race, an absolute shocker. Nate Silver had given Hillary a 99+ percent chance to win. The mass media is giving astonishingly little attention to the Dem Michigan results today.


  71. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:04 pm:

    The Daily Beast is owned by IAC. Chelsea Clinton is on the IAC board of directors. I’d take anything they say with a mountain of salt.


  72. - X-prof - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:04 pm:

    Honeybear: ‘After I learned that Hillary spoke to GTCR in 2014 while Rauner was running against Quinn for 280k dollars, I knew I could never vote for her, even if she is the nominee.’

    Although Florida will be front and center, I hope Sanders’ team is up to speed on Rauner in general and Hillary at GTCR in particular in time for the Univision debate tonight.


  73. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:14 pm:

    – The mass media is giving astonishingly little attention to the Dem Michigan results today.–

    You can’t be serious.


  74. - Original Rambler - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:14 pm:

    I’m with Charlie Kratos. Cruz way scarier than Trump and, IMHO, more like Rauner. Trump will compromise with Dems and whoever to get a “deal” done. He is clearly not beholden to any ideology. Cruz would take this country over a cliff before compromising any of his ultra right principles.


  75. - Amalia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:16 pm:

    Jon Favreau worked for Obama. get a grip.


  76. - CharlieKratos - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:26 pm:

    And now John Favreau is within a fluff piece for his new boss. Get a clue.


  77. - ChicagoVinny - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:29 pm:

    Voted Clinton, Duckworth, Foxx


  78. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:33 pm:

    Favreau was great in Swingers.


  79. - Stumpy's bunker - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 2:59 pm:

    In re: Hillary’s popularity among African-American voters in Illinois.

    About the time Bernie Sanders was being carried off by Chicago coppers in an old-school, street-level Civil Rights action, Hillary was in pretty Park Ridge, where “urban struggle” could be an agonizing choice between gourmet coffee flavored with Raspberry Truffle or Madagascar cinnamon.

    And lets not forget her later dog whistle about “super predators”.

    #Idon’tgetit


  80. - Amalia - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 3:05 pm:

    and while Bernie was 31 and publishing fantasy garbage about rape, Hillary at 31 had already been confirmed by the Senate to help poor people with legal services as the chair of the Legal Services Commission.


  81. - Responsa - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 3:17 pm:

    ==Polls are histrically very accurate. Yes, sometimes they miss, but that is a rare occurrence.Basic statistics.==

    LOL LOL LOL LOL Ever heard of “Garbage in Garbage out”? Or “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” –a phrase used to describe the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of “statistics” to bolster weak arguments or create narratives? Did you notice this whole thread is discussing the big polling miss in Michigan and features knowledgeable commenters questioning the IL “results”?


  82. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 3:49 pm:

    “Voting for Trump..never again vote for Kirk…hold my nose and vote for Duckworth.”

    Double, did you have a typo in there?


  83. - walker - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 3:55 pm:

    Out working in the field, like A Guy, so my view is seriously limited.

    Did notice though, a stream of new Hillary volunteers show up today with a stark sense of urgency. Bernie’s folks have been working wide and hard already.

    They now fully believe Illinois is in play. We shall see.


  84. - Tone - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 4:01 pm:

    Responsa obviously has reading comprehension problems. Not surprising seeing the bizarre love affair with Sanders.


  85. - drip...drip...drowned - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 5:14 pm:

    I just typed “Bernie Sanders 2016″ into Google Translate, selected as my languages “English TO Free Ponies for All !” and it gave me “Ralph Nader 2000.” Huh.


  86. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 6:28 pm:

    ==Favreau was great in Swingers.==

    Thanks 47th. I had to spit out my drink. LOL


  87. - Mama - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 6:47 pm:

    “They know what they want, and it isn’t what we have now.”

    VanillaMan, you are 100% right!


  88. - cannon649 - Wednesday, Mar 9, 16 @ 9:10 pm:

    Bernie is going to do far better than those number.

    May not win but I see single digits.

    I do not feel Obama will indict her but her hurt issue is real problem.


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