* OK, this is a bit dangerous after how ridiculous the pollsters looked last night in Michigan, but a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll has Hillary Clinton with a huge lead over Bernie Sanders among likely voters…
If the Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?
Hillary Clinton 62.30%
Bernie Sanders 25.00%
Someone else 2.42%
She’s beating Sanders in every region and in every demographic and she’s doing particularly well among women and African-Americans.
From the pollster…
We see Mrs. Clinton’s strong lead wane as March 15 nears and she could—conceivably— end up under 60 percent Election Day, but she still holds an extraordinary lead over Mr. Sanders. Her strength among African American voters remains incredibly strong.
The Tribune’s recent poll had Clinton leading Sanders 67-25.
* OK, now on to likely Republican voters…
If the Illinois Republican Primary for president were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump 32.64%
Ted Cruz 19.90%
John Kasich 18.41%
Marco Rubio 11.34%
Someone else 1.49%
* From the pollster…
We see Mr. Trump’s lead shrink slightly over the last 10 days, especially among the most likely voters (those who have voted in all three of the last three primaries). Both Cruz and Kasich are nipping at his heels among this (usually) older set.
Kasich does best among “R-3″ voters, meaning those who have taken primary ballots three times in the past three primaries. Trump does best among R-1’s.
The Tribune’s recent poll had Trump at 32, Cruz at 22, Rubio at 21 and Kasich at 18 with 7 percent undecided. So, it looks like Rubio is tanking here. But… I dunno. Not gonna make any hard claims this year.
* Methodology for the Democratic poll…
This poll was conducted on March 7-8, 2016 using both automated (recorded) on landline phones and live interview calls to cell phones. In all, 994 likely Democrat voters completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. In total, 400 of the responses came from cell phones… For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.11% at the 95% confidence level
* Methodology for the Republican poll…
This poll was conducted on March 7-8, 2016 using both automated (recorded) on landline phones and live interview calls to cell phones. In all, 1,009 likely Republican voters completed all questions on the poll from both landlines and cell phones. In total, 400 of the responses came from cell phones… For this case, results with a margin of error of ±3.09% at the 95% confidence level
* Kirk holds big lead over little-known Republican Senate challenger: But the survey also revealed a warning sign for Kirk for the fall: barely half of Republican voters approve of his job performance during his five-plus years in the Senate.
* Duckworth easily outdistancing foes in Democratic Senate race: The survey showed Duckworth with 72 percent support compared with only 8 percent for former Chicago Urban League CEO Andrea Zopp and 4 percent for state Sen. Napoleon Harris, of Harvey, with another 16 percent undecided ahead of Tuesday’s primary… Nine out of 10 voters knew Duckworth, while about half said they were unfamiliar with Zopp or Harris. What’s more, nearly 7 in 10 Democratic voters have a favorable view of the congresswoman.