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Not quite on the same page

Tuesday, Mar 22, 2016

* Last week’s primary has caused a bit of messaging confusion. From today…


* From yesterday

[State Sens. Michael Connelly, R-Wheaton, and Chris Nybo, R-Elmhurst] said only political pressure, whether it be Democrats losing seats in the November election or increasingly dire financial straits, seemed likely to bring Madigan to the bargaining table.

That seems to run directly counter to the governor’s new messaging.

But here’s something to ponder: What if the Democrats gain seats? It is a presidential year, after all, and they do have the map.

While that seems to be a less likely prospect in the Senate, with John Sullivan’s retirement, it might conceivably happen in the House.

* Full raw Rauner audio from today…

- Posted by Rich Miller        

53 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 11:53 am:

    Dear GOP GA,

    Had enough?

    Let me know. I’m still with you, but daylight is burning, and Rauner just doesn’t care about you, or the Illinois Republican brand outside owning voting switches.

    Keep me posted, I’m still waiting.

    Oswego Willy


  2. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 11:56 am:

    Oh, GOP GA…

    If you can’t figure out why the messaging is off… it’s because Rauner is worried about the Raunerite Agenda first, “you guys” second.

    If Rauner can get Democratic Raunerites, like Ken Dunkin, that will be the play. You guys sticking up for Rauner is “expected” but respect is NOT reciprocated.

    Again, y’all let me know,

    OW


  3. - Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 11:56 am:

    Not the first time the gov has suddenly switched gears on the GOP.


  4. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 11:59 am:

    –Rauner today: “I don’t think getting a budget deal should really be tied to any particular election, or primary event or general election.”–

    No, it should be tied to the budget.

    If the governor dropped his pre-conditions, a budget deal could be had in relatively short order.

    But Rauner knows that. He continues to play the victim to distract from his “squeeze the beast” strategy.


  5. - out of touch - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:01 pm:

    It’s interesting that the “political pressure” that the two senators above describe applies only to Madigan/democrats (according to the senators’ viewpoint). Does the GOP think that they are inoculated from political pressure by virtue of Rauner money? Voters matter (read: 2016 primary).


  6. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:02 pm:

    We know Governor Rauner hasn’t met with the leaders since December, and he hasn’t met with Madigan since before then. My question: is he even meeting with Durkin or Radogno? How often do they meet?

    And if they aren’t in regular communication, wouldn’t that be big news?


  7. - Thoughts Matter - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:03 pm:

    Changing the rules mid-game? Even children understand why that happens. Getting a budget deal tied to the Turnaround Agenda is still in YOUR rules though?


  8. - Decaff Coffee Party - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:04 pm:

    I will give the governor high marks for staying with his turnaround agenda ideaology if not staying on message. In his world, the budget is tied only to his agenda, voters and election results be damned.

    It appears that to him the only election that mattered was his victory. The Democratic super majorities in the GA are somehow invalid (Pick a reason: Madigan’s dictatorship, gerrymandered maps, stupid voters that don’t understand short-term pain for long-term gain or trickle-down economics).

    In the interim — the length of which may redefine the term interim — court mandates will run the State of Illinois. The tipping point may well occur if there is no K-12 budget for FY17.


  9. - Fred - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:04 pm:

    Connelly and Nybo are much closer to the truth that Rauner.

    It might take a swing of four seats in the House in either direction to break the stalemate. Given it’s a presidential year (and the results of Rauner v. Madigan proxies last week,) a swing in the Dems favor seems more likely. But at the end of the day, the map is the map. A four-seat swing in any direction is unlikely.


  10. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:04 pm:

    –…or increasingly dire financial straits, seemed likely to bring Madigan to the bargaining table.–

    Oops, momentary lapse into candor from Sens. Connelly and Nybo.

    Higher ed and social services are being wrecked, and the state GRF debt is exploding, as a political tactic to leverage union-busting legislation.

    And GOP GA members are cool with that?


  11. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:05 pm:

    Gov. Rauner cashed in a lot of political capital and now may have trouble meeting his margins. Money buys a lot in politics, but some GOP types can’t tie themselves so closely to the Governor for the next few years. And I have to believe it gets worse if Trump is the nominee because there will be no incentive to move on anything, since Madigan almost assuredly picks up house seats in that scenario.


  12. - Anon221 - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:07 pm:

    In the final question, looks like he’s answered the Ag Ed Line Item question. He wants to do away with that line item. Farm Bureau and others- you on board with that??? He’s gonna give you “local control” instead!/s

    I wonder how lost this final question will get in the media reports.


  13. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:07 pm:

    “I don’t think getting a budget deal should really be tied to any particular election, or primary event or general election.”

    If he wanted to, the governor could submit a budget.

    Instead, he once again pleads impotence.

    – MrJM


  14. - Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:10 pm:

    What is the rationale for the democrats picking up more house seats or even hanging on to everyone they have. Because they have done such a great job the last two sessions and are obviously working night and day to solve the impasse. Of course not this month but by golly in April they will be back at it.

    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch voters are furious and democrats are responsible too.


  15. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:12 pm:

    Same as it ever was. Unless both are willing to compromise, Rauner and Madigan have the same problems now as they did a week, a month and a year ago.
    Rauner does not have the numbers to pass his agenda, while Madigan does not have the numbers to force an override.
    Without a mutual compromise, this “epic struggle” will last at least until January 2017.


  16. - Mama - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:12 pm:

    I think the GOP GA members hate the Democrats so much they will do anything to get them to cave.


  17. - Mama - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:14 pm:

    I expect nothing will change until January, 2017!


  18. - train111 - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:16 pm:

    “Only political pressure such as losing seats will bring Madigan to the table”

    So sayeth the two GOP state senators who were reelected in 2014 and do not have to run in a presidential year, with most likely Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Easy words for those two to mouth.


  19. - Austin Blvd - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:19 pm:

    All that money me and me friends just spent on the McCann and Dunkin’ races and those other primaries…
    We were just havin’ a little fun. Didn’t have nothin’ to do with anythin’.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:19 pm:

    ===Don’t count your chickens before they hatch voters are furious and democrats are responsible too.===

    1) Governors own, they always do.

    2) March 15th was a repudiation of Raunerites, not Republicans or Democrats. You know that. Your ignorance at what was at play in the Democratic primary with Dunkin and the GOP primary is obvious. It’s not Party, it’s Raunerites.

    ===What is the rationale for the democrats picking up more house seats or even hanging on to everyone they have. Because they have done such a great job the last two sessions and are obviously working night and day to solve the impasse. Of course not this month but by golly in April they will be back at it.===

    Ok, I’ll run races making Rauner the referendum, you try “Blame Madigan”… lol


  21. - x ace - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:22 pm:

    95th Could go Democrat - Mathis could beat Bourne - that would be + 1 Seat - Would Need 3 More D’s


  22. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:23 pm:

    I can think of 2 house districts Hammond and maybe Moffit. Both have lots of Raunerite impact. There is the budget. Any others?


  23. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:24 pm:

    Former Moffit District 99th that is.One of the Proft losses


  24. - Keyrock - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:24 pm:

    2017? I’m starting to think 2019.

    And to think I believed RNUG when he said October, 2015. 1st time he ever let us down.


  25. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:25 pm:

    -
    -He continues to play the victim to distract from his “squeeze the beast” strategy.-

    More like blow holes in the dam strategy


  26. - Austin Blvd - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:26 pm:

    We’re winnin’. Hang in there!


  27. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:27 pm:

    Counting seats in play is to the way to go about winning seats.

    Formulating the strategy in the micro and attaching that to Rauner is what needs to be going on to put seats actually in play.

    Horse-Cart…


  28. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:28 pm:

    “isn’t”

    Ugh. Dumb phone.


  29. - Mama - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:32 pm:

    Rich, how many Republicans legislators will be facing a Democrat in November?


  30. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:37 pm:

    Both the ones I mentioned do….I would like to know what is in play. I would think republican seats near springfield


  31. - burbanite - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:37 pm:

    Dems need to slate someone in 110, several other places as well.


  32. - Mama - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:41 pm:

    ==-He continues to play the victim to distract from his “squeeze the beast” strategy.-==

    The uninformed are buying Rauner’s victimhood, and he knows it. Unfortunately, there are a lot of uninformed people out there. The Dems need to do a better job informing the masses.


  33. - My New Handle - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:43 pm:

    Governors do not own veto overrides, the legislature does. And 71 Dems overriding a veto means the Dems own it, (read tax increase). Madigan knows this and he won’t let his caucus own it. There has to be bipartisan support or a tax increase will not happen.


  34. - 414 - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:44 pm:

    @Fred said “the map is the map.”

    Very true. A real game changer would have to occur to create a meaningful swing of seats. I thought Rauner’s money might be that game changer. After McCann and Dunkin, I’ve changed my mind.

    Might a anti-Trump landslide change the game? Maybe, but I would still bet on the map.


  35. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:44 pm:

    “how many Republicans legislators will be facing a Democrat in November?”

    House:
    https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016

    Senate:
    https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois_State_Senate_elections,_2016

    – MrJM


  36. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===Madigan knows this and he won’t let his caucus own it.===

    Or… Madigan doesn’t even control 71 votes, which is more true.

    Ugh.

    There’s no “working super majority”.

    K? K.


  37. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:47 pm:

    ===What if the Democrats gain seats?===
    Democrats: “Still the governor’s job to propose a balanced budget.”
    Republicans: “Now the Democrats really do have a veto-proof majority; they can pass a tax hike if they want.”


  38. - My New Handle - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:54 pm:

    No super majority for House Dems now, but come November the dynamic might be different, which I was not clear enough in stating.


  39. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===But here’s something to ponder: What if the Democrats gain seats? It is a presidential year, after all, and they do have the map.

    The national winds are likely to be in the Democrats favor. A Cruz or Trump will not play well in Illinois. This could put several Republican seats into play if turnout is depressed.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:02 pm:

    - My New Handle -

    No worriers. Understood.

    Keep in mind, Drury and Franks won’t vote for a revenue increase either.

    Madigan would need, at a minimum +3, and even that, Madigan might not have to worry about getting 71 because it might be too late to save many thibgs after December 2016.

    Thanks for clarifying.


  41. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:03 pm:

    Thanks great link. I could see Senate a wash. Maybe Simon wins and balances out Sullivan. But I sure are gains for house dems with the top of the ticket chaos. My best guess is one to four seats. I notice Sandack has an opponent. I don’t know that district well maybe it’s a GOP sink like 94. I go from gain of one of its a normal presidential year. But up to 5 if it’s a blowout on top of anti Rauner in the state worker university districts.We could be number one in spending too


  42. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:06 pm:

    It won’t be too late but we have to stop digging the budget hole deeper. We don’t have a federal printing press.plus 3 is possible this year.


  43. - Robert the 1st - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:13 pm:

    I wonder what the eventual tax increase will be. 7.5% for individual and 10.5% corporate? Any guesses?


  44. - Ahoy! - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:13 pm:

    I actually think it would be harder for the House to pick up seats mainly because of how the map is drawn (they do push Republican’s into districts after all). Ponder this, it’s feasible for the Democrats to pick up house seats and for the Governor to win re-election.


  45. - 13th - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:14 pm:

    Democrats need to slate someone in for the senate 55th and then in the house 107th, 108th and 109th as no budget has effects


  46. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:18 pm:

    I hope not! It might have to be of this debt pile grows to . I wouldn’t want to go higher than Iowa or Wisconsin even if we were progressive. I think 4.75 and middle through as usual but if we go beyond this winter who knows.


  47. - Liberty - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:26 pm:

    more cognitive dissonance…. he is lost and doesn’t know what to do now.


  48. - illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:26 pm:

    I think they should skate someone in Sullivan just to prevent a ballot break. The 94 is a sink.It’s Quincy and rural with a half dem Monmouth.The Hammond one is WIU and 3 prisons.I think any Republican in that kind of district needs to look at last Tuesday long and hard. Hope money can save you? Or save yourself and face Rauner primary rage in 2 years.If he is even a factor in 2 years.


  49. - Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:32 pm:

    @Illinois manufacturer, good list.

    OW has a good theory (sorry if I butcher it, OW). Universities and those employed should be raising heck especially with their republican representatives…and some Rs in university districts could be vulnerable if they blindly follow Rauner rather than listening to their districts.

    With that in mind, on the House side, there aren’t too many great options from what I can see. Either no D opponent and/or districts carved up to favor incumbents. Two possibilities:

    112th (Edwardsville): Kay vs. Stuart. Kay received 58% in 2014 but just 50.3% in 2012.

    115th (part of Carbondale): Bryant vs. Griffin. Bryant received 61% in 2014.

    Not a university town, though one that I haven’t seen mentioned in the thread. The 68th (part of Rockford and nearby small towns): Cabello vs. Sweeney. Cabello unopposed in 2014; received 53% in 2012.


  50. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 1:47 pm:

    - Robert the Bruce -

    You did fine.

    The ball game is Charleston, Edwardsville, Macomb, Carbondale, DeKalb…

    … even Chanpaign and Bloomington-Normal.

    “Vote Accordingly”

    “Rauner wants to destroy our economic engine in ‘X’.

    Are we sending someone to Springfield… to help him?”

    Vote Accordingly.


  51. - Ole' Nelson - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 3:19 pm:

    Will Reggie even have a viable opponent in Charleston?


  52. - RNUG - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 3:43 pm:

    -Keyrock-,

    LOL.


  53. - Mama - Tuesday, Mar 22, 16 @ 4:27 pm:

    “I don’t think getting a budget deal should really be tied to any particular election, or primary event or general election.”

    Maybe not… However, governor, you do tie the budget to destroying the unions.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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