* I may very well be posting this weekend, but I don’t wanna deal with comments, so we’ll all jabber together on Monday unless something big happens.
In the meantime, the ACLU of Illinois urged the University of Illinois at Chicago earlier today to make sure protesters’ rights were respected at tonight’s big Donald Trump rally. According to the group, the university has responded…
They went out of their way to assure that they are committed to student safety and free speech, and that they have developed protocols to address the issues that we raised in the letter. They are going to use video cameras to document any incidents as thoroughly as possible and have conveyed to the police that people should not be removed unless they are truly disruptive. We are hopeful that some of the incidents elsewhere will not be repeated here. We will see how it goes.
But…
Four men wearing "Muslims United Against Trump" t-shirts were just escorted out of #Trump Chicago rally as crowd chanted "USA! USA!"
* The funniest thing about this story is that Harris claims to be the one who called the cops…
Suburban police officers were to called to a west suburban community center on Wednesday in response to a basketball court fight involving a Democratic candidate for the Illinois legislature who allegedly was “out of control,” according to the police report obtained by The Illinois Observer.
Franklin Park police responded to a call regarding a fight at the Franklin Park Community Center during a basketball game that included ex-Forest Park Commissioner Chris Harris who is running for the Illinois House against incumbent State Rep. Chris Welch (D-Hillside).
The police report said officers were called to the scene and that community center “employees” allegedly wanted Harris “removed from the property” because he was’ “arguing with the subjects on the basket ball court.”
The report said Harris was allegedly “elbowing” players and that the game’s referee alleged that “Harris was out of control and was asked to leave the game and he refused and bumped the ref intentionally and refused to leave the game even after his team mates ask him to leave.”
The responding officer also “smelled alcohol on Harris’ breath and he was offered a PBT test and refused,” according to the report that also noted that, “Harris was sent on his way.” He was not arrested.
The not so funny thing about the story is that a candidate was spending his time playing basketball just a few days before the election.
Dude, get a clue.
…Adding… State Senate candidate Bob Fioretti claims to be an adjunct professor at NIU’s law school. Um, no…
Yet the NIU Law School faculty directory does not list Fioretti’s name.
Employment records provided by NIU in response to a Freedom of Information request show that Fioretti was hired to teach a class on State and Local Government for a four month period in the Spring of 2000. For this he was paid a $2,000 honorarium and reimbursed for travel expenses.
In other words, Fioretti taught a single class at NIU 16 years ago, and based on that is claiming that he “remains” a professor today.
About 80,000 fewer children are being served by the state’s Child Care Assistance Program than in the previous year, according to the advocacy group Illinois Action for Children, which met here this week.
* David Glassman, the president of Eastern Illinois University, spoke to a Senate committee yesterday…
And today, he said, will be the last day of work for 177 civil service employees at EIU.
“Of these 177 civil service employees, some are single parents, some are dealing with health issues, and in some cases the layoffs will affect both husband and wife in the same household,” Glassman said. “I wish to be clear that these positions are being eliminated not because they are unessential. We need them. And not because we are rightsizing the university. That already has been accomplished.
Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Nearly 1,900 people responded to the recent Citizen’s Utility Board survey about Exelon’s push to bailout its nuclear plants. Here is how CUB put it:
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Newly released employment data undermines Gov. Bruce Rauner’s core argument in the state’s budget war: that Illinois’ economy is broken and requires major structural change in government.
The data suggest that while job growth here continues to lag the nation’s, it is considerably better than suggested in reports issued by Rauner’s Department of Employment Security and by the governor himself.
The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.
* Buried in the IDES press release…
Each year, the BLS benchmarks nonfarm payroll estimates to universal counts derived primarily from unemployment insurance tax reports. This year, revisions conducted revealed that nonfarm payrolls grew by +88,000 in 2014 rather than +66,800 and jobs grew by +49,600 in 2015 rather declining by -3,000. Private nonfarm payrolls regained their January 2008 peak levels in July 2015. However, the BLS’ revisions in nonfarm payroll employment show Illinois is still short -16,800 jobs in reaching the January 2008 peak employment level.
In other words, Illinois actually gained 138,000 jobs over the past two years, up 2.3 percent. That’s a bit over half the national rate in the same period, and 2015 nationally was the best year in decades for job gains.
But 138,000 new jobs arguably is a lot better than Rauner suggested when he ran against then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014.
Illinois’ unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3 percent in January, while the state added a net 1,500 jobs, the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) said Thursday.
The state’s jobless rate increased from 6.1 percent in December. There were 412,600 unemployed Illinoisans in January, a 3 percent increase from the previous month.
Illinois had a higher unemployment rate in January than the national figure of 4.9 percent. […]
“In January, the two industry sectors with the largest gains in employment were: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+3,600) and Educational and Health Services (+3,200),” reads an IDES news release. “The three industry sectors with the largest declines in employment were: Government (-2,600); Other Services (-2,100); and Financial Activities (-1,700). “
…Adding… From the Illinois Policy Institute…
Hi Rich,
I noticed your blog post on the BLS jobs revisions. This happens every spring to change previous years.
Greg Hinz’s article has some inaccuracies in it. In particular:
The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.
Hinz is incorrect about the “turn of the century.” The revised data is available right on IDES website here. Illinois still has fewer jobs than at the turn of the century by 33,100. There are also still 16,800 fewer jobs than before the recession began.
Something similar happened last year, when the revised data was released in the spring of 2015, it was better than initially reported in 2014.
Further, the speculation of Gov. Rauner manipulating the data is a little weird, especially in regards to how this revised data was released. In general, the source for all this data is federal BLS numbers. The numbers used in IDES’ releases are from BLS and published the exact same on BLS’ site. And in this case, BLS hasn’t even put out the revised numbers yet, so IDES is putting out the revisions ahead of BLS.
We will publish more thoroughly on this when BLS releases data for all states on Monday. As of now, BLS has not updated their site to reflect the revisions for Illinois or any other states.
Michael Lucci
Vice President of Policy
Illinois Policy Institute
Illinois Policy Action
Agreed on the data manipulation stuff. IDES was simply using federal numbers.
* From the Illinois Policy Institute’s news service…
Three of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s agenda items have traction with voters, at least according to polling data released Wednesday by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. […]
* 57 percent said they would vote for right-to-work or open-shop laws, while 4 percent said they leaned toward such laws. Thirty-three percent said they were opposed or leaning toward opposition. Seven 7 percent gave an answer of “undecided” or said they didn’t know.
“That one was really pretty surprising,” Jackson said. “This is not a state where you’d expect people to favor right-to-work by anywhere near that margin. I don’t know if it’s linked with Rauner’s having campaigned about this so much or what, but I do think it’s surprising.
“I’m not entirely sure what to make of it other than the possibility of Rauner’s having campaigned on it so hard for so long,” Jackson said.
Another possible factor, Jackson said: Union membership has declined in Illinois and in the nation. It is down nationally from a high of about 37 percent to about 12 percent.
“There are not as many union households to understand what unions mean and why unions would be vehemently opposed to (Illinois becoming) a right-to-work state,” Jackson said.
Better Government Association’s Andy Shaw told WMAY Springfield the finding calls into question Illinois’ status as a pro-union state.
“What you’re really hearing is people thinking that if (right-to-work) drives down the cost of government somewhat, it’s a good thing, because people feel their taxes are not being well enough spent,” Shaw said.
Meanwhile, Shaw said, there is another take on right-to-work: “Of course the other side says it’s a way of driving the wages and the lifestyle of the middle class down.”
When breaking that number down along party lines, 55 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of independent voters say they lean toward right-to-work, according to the poll.
* OK, here’s the question asked by the Simon Institute…
Some states have passed right-to-work or open shop laws that say workers have the right to hold their jobs in a unionized workplace, whether they join the labor union or not. Would you vote for or against this proposal?
Ugh.
* I e-mailed David Yepsen at the Institute a couple of days ago to say I thought his poll question was bogus. He asked how I would’ve worded it and I replied…
How about something along the lines of receiving the full benefits of union membership without having to pay a dime for any of the union’s services?
Yepsen agreed.
This isn’t about some “right to freedom of association” it’s about a right to freeload. And it’s wrong.
Jackson and Shaw should’ve both known better.
…Adding… As pointed out in comments, this question merely affirms the current “fair share” system. You don’t have to join the union, but you still have to pay for the service. And that makes the Simon Institute question even more bogus.
I keep trying to be retired and this stuff just sucks me back in.
Two points of reference
My quick back of the envelope figures using the same metrics as the Racing Form shows the State’s Attorneys race in Cook County at $5.33 million. I know it is three candidates, but the idea of spending as much or more on a primary in a house district as is being spent on a contested county-wide primary race in Cook County is beyond stunning.
Also it appears the most expensive legislative primary before this year was the H-26 Mitchell/Travis race from 2014 at around $1.2 million. (H-39 Berrios/Guzzardi and H-81 Sanddack/Matune in the same year were close to $1 million)
It is really hard to overstate how big money from individuals and independent expenditures have reshaped the political landscape since 2013.
Before my head explodes I am off to the driving range to work on something I kind of understand and maybe can fix - my slice.
I hope all is well with your health and you are still working hard on that new life style.
* QC lawmakers spar over campaign contribution in 72nd Ill. House race: “He said ‘You’re probably not gonna be happy, but I got a call over the weekend to make a donation [to Mike Halpin].’ So, I asked him, I said ‘Did the call come from the Speaker?’ and he said ‘No.’ And I said ‘Did it come from Will Cousineau?’ and he said ‘Yes.’”
* Rush’s campaign receives financial support from some of Emanuel’s closest political backers: A little more than a month after the news conference with Emanuel, Rush’s campaign cashed 24 checks, all on the same day — each the maximum allowed contribution of $2,700 and totaling $64,800. They came from Sacks, members of Sacks’ family, Sacks’ co-workers, friends and associates.
* Follow the money: Former 4th Ward Ald. Will Burns gave $25,000 to state Rep. Christian Mitchell, who has a rematch against Jay Travis in a Democratic primary for a Chicago House seat. That amount will buy a lot of promoted attack tweets against his challenger.
Just west of Midway Airport, in the bungalow belt dominated by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, some Democrats are defecting to The Donald.
“Right here, I’m a Donald Trump voter,” says retired city plumber Tom Izzo.
“So many Americans are out of job, but we got all these illegals working here. Something’s got to happen,” he says.
Izzo represents a bit of a trend. In 2008, just 6 percent of Chicago primary voters selected Republican ballots. This year, it’s up to 10 percent. And that’s not far away from the 13 percent back in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan attracted so-called blue collar Reagan Democrats.
An example: Gene Krupa, who usually votes Democrat.
“We need change, and Obama didn’t give us the change we needed,” he says.
OK, the station used citywide numbers, but it didn’t look at results in Madigan’s 22nd House District.
So, let’s take a look for ourselves, shall we?
* By far, the district’s two largest wards are 13 and 23. So, since I’m a one-person shop, let’s just look at those two wards.
In 2008, 5 percent of 13th Ward voters cast Republican ballots and 8 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)
In 2012, 8 percent of 13th Ward voters took GOP ballots and 17 percent of 23rd Ward voters did the same. (Dem results here.)
*** UPDATE *** Will Caskey took a look at the ward numbers and wrote this on Facebook…
VERY interesting Chicago early vote data courtesy of Rich Miller.
From the looks of it there are, so far, 8 wards with over twice the GOP vote share as citywide. This compares to 10 wards in 2012.
Additionally, the citywide R vote share in 2012 was 15 percent, as opposed to the current 8.73 percent.
In other words, There does NOT appear to be a surge in blue collar whites pulling Republican ballots instead of Democratic ones in Chicago. This is especially interesting as Trump tends to do the best with people who made up their minds earlier, then falls on Election Day.
So far these numbers would seem to favor Anita Alvarez in the Cook SA primary; even the heavily Republican 42nd Ward is producing a GOP vote share under 25 percent (it’s usually more like 40+%).
Basically the more white voters pull Democratic ballots, the better Alvarez should do.
So, the citywide trend appears to be (for now) exactly the opposite of what that CBS 2 report claims.
* I had a chat with Sangamon County Clerk Don Gray yesterday about early voting. I was wondering if he’d seen any hard evidence of Democrats taking Republican ballots. As we’ve discussed before, Sen. Sam McCann’s supporters are hoping to convince Democrats to help pull him through a tough GOP primary battle against a Rauner-backed (and now openly Rauner-funded) candidate.
Clerk Gray said he has seen some evidence. For instance, his office has looked at early voting in the downtown office by Democrats in 2014 and found that of 434 Democrats who took their party’s ballot that year, 39 have pulled GOP ballots so far this year.
That ain’t many actual votes, of course, but it’s still 9 percent.
Could those just be Trump voters and not necessarily Sam McCann voters? Nobody really knows.
* But something else is going on. As of yesterday afternoon, 1,888 Republican ballots had been pulled, compared to 1,849 two years ago and 1,511 in the last presidential primary four years ago.
And, so far, 1,244 Democratic early ballots have been requested, compared to 967 two years ago and 735 four years ago.
* OK, now let’s look at percent of total Dem/GOP early voting ballots cast for 2012-16…
2012 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 67
2012 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 33
2014 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 66
2014 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 34
2016 - Republican percent of total early votes cast, to date: 60
2016 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast, to date: 40
The Democrats’ percent of total has clearly spiked. On its face, that could very well argue against any surge for McCann.
Then again, we really don’t know and early voting isn’t finished yet.
Friday, Mar 11, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Great Lakes Credit Union (GLCU) takes pride in its many philanthropic initiatives to help build up the communities in which its members live. This year GLCU’s Board of Directors has adopted an extra special plan to give back even more. GLCU is proud to announce it is donating $39,000 in support of 13 organizations located within the communities of their branches throughout Lake, McHenry, Cook, DuPage, and Will counties in Illinois.
On January 29, 2016 GLCU presented a $3,000 check to the Open Arms Mission. The Open Arms Mission is a local food pantry whose mission is to provide daily living necessities while encouraging self-sufficiency for individuals and families in need.
Other organizations benefiting from this initiative include: Operation Support Our Troops in Naperville, Gurnee Explorers Unit, Coalition of Healthy Communities in Zion, ASCEND in Waukegan, Fat Cat Rescue, Inc. in North Chicago, Ronald McDonald House in Oak Lawn, McHenry County Community Foundation in Crystal Lake, Helping Paws Animal Shelter in Woodstock, United Way of Will County in Bolingbrook, Good Shepherd Center in Hazel Crest, Village of Willow Springs Veterans and Family Relief Fund, and B.E.S.T in Round Lake Beach.
* I’ve been hearing that the Madigan folks have been warning voters in the 22nd House District that the Speaker’s Democratic primary opponent has hired thugs to walk precincts and are advising folks to not open their doors. Now comes this…
State Representative Michael Madigan’s spokesperson Steve Brown issued the following statement Friday regarding a police report filed Thursday evening involving workers for the campaign of Jason Gonzales:
“Jason Gonzales has gone to great lengths to tell voters how much he’s changed after it was revealed that he pleaded guilty to numerous crimes of deception and dishonesty. But it would appear that his disrespect for the law is being followed by his own campaign.
“Last night, we learned that two of Gonzales’ campaign workers were arrested by 8th District police officers after they allegedly attempted to use force to open the door of a local woman’s house.
“Throughout this campaign, Michael Madigan has spoken about the differences between him and Jason Gonzales and issues impacting local neighborhoods, including how Madigan will continue to work for middle-class families and stand up against dangerous right-wing agendas. There has also been an effort to inform voters about Gonzales’ deceitful and dishonest past. Voters have a right to know how Jason Gonzales’ history of deceit and dishonesty could negatively impact them and the representation they receive in the State Capitol, and they should know that historical behavior appears to be carried on by his campaign.”
…Adding… From last night on the Garfield Ridge Neighborhood Watch Facebook page…
This evening, CPD arrested 2 African American males on 60th and Parkside for attempted burglary. They were passing out flyers for the Gonzalez campaign, and while knocking on doors in Clearing, they tried forcing their way in to a home. The homeowner was inside at the time and called police. The 2 offenders are in custody.
*** UPDATE *** From the Gonzales campaign…
“The notion that any of our campaign workers were arrested is a blatant lie from the Madigan campaign. No Gonzales campaign workers have been arrested or even talked to by the police,” said Ben Gould, Campaign Manager for Jason Gonzales.
I was also told that “none of our canvassers yesterday fit the description of the those who were apprehended.”
The campaign also says that their canvassers weren’t in that neighborhood last night.
* A Democratic ward organization’s sample ballot is not an official government ballot, ya amateur goofballs.
* Sorry Madigoons (and I use that term with great affection), but I kinda doubt that chatting with a voter outside a polling place is the worst thing happening in that district right now…
* Student leaders used to proclaim: “Don’t mourn. Organize!” Now they openly worry about people being “triggered” by a candidate…
The email from the UIC student government relayed safety contacts for students who felt threatened or think they need a police escort around campus. At the same time, it urged students to behave respectfully.
“Our hope is that all students will demonstrate peacefully, display class, and remain safe during this highly contentious event,” the email read. “Furthermore, if students are offended or triggered by statements made by Donald Trump or his campaign, we would recommend you to use any of our vast support networks. If you are put into a dangerous or life-threatening situation we have listed numbers you may call in order to best assist you.”
If you’re offended by a politician, don’t faint. Walk a precinct! Get yourself to a candidate call center (well, maybe not this one)! Pick up a picket sign!
Whether he’s talking about “plantation negro” leadership in East St. Louis or the so-called white elite “bottom feeders,” as he likes to refer to St. Clair County bigwigs, Romanik takes no prisoners.
He’s an ex-East St. Louis and Washington Park cop who often refers to himself as “poor white trash” from the Roosevelt Homes housing projects of ESL and makes no apologies for refusing to snitch on his friends – which, in part, led to his serving a 20-month sentence in the U.S penitentiary in Leavenworth, Kansas.
Since that time, the former strip club mogul’s new toy is his radio empire. He owns a number of stations that focus on everything from golden oldies to country, sports and talk.
But nothing seems to make his day more than lampooning and humiliating local politicians, with nicknames like state Sen. James “Foghorn” Clayborne, “God” Sprague and Judge John “Red on the noodle like a [expletive deleted] on a poodle” Baricevic.
Lately, though, Romanik has gained the attention of local media with his billboards in the Belleville community, which comically lambast St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern.
His current billboard pictures Kern in a bikini with the caption “Mark ‘Sweetcakes’ Kern should have been a stripper. He’s already stripped us of our tax dollars!”
