It’s Rauner vs. Madigan everywhere you look
Monday, Apr 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Politico…
Democrats will paint Munger as being under Rauner’s control. Republicans will do the same with Mendoza and Madigan.
Democrats believe Munger’s Rauner problem is more politically dangerous than Mendoza’s ties to either Madigan or Emanuel.
“This will be the Democrats versus Rauner. Rauner has become the Republican party in that sense. He pretty much owns the Republican party,” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “In order for her to hold the seat … Rauner’s going to have to put a ton of money in this and I think Mendoza won’t have any trouble raising money to match that. This is going to be another visible contest. The Democrats are going to try to portray this as manipulating things to benefit the governor.”
Redfield said that could be a damaging line of attack.
“Insofar as she’s portrayed, and people find it credible, that she is Rauner’s person, that she has her thumbs on the scales a little bit. That’s going to create vulnerabilities for her I think,” he said.
I seriously doubt that Mendoza will raise as much money as Munger if Rauner becomes fully involved.
But this is indeed a proxy war. Madigan helped clear the way for Mendoza and Rauner appointed Munger. It can’t get much clearer than that.
Rauner’s poll numbers are lousy, but nothing like Madigan’s, so we’ll see.
* Meanwhile…
(L)ocal candidates appear to be distancing themselves from any suggestion that they are tied to the leaders. That isn’t to say they don’t accuse their opponents of being so, the race for the 118th House seat being an example.
“My opponent is going to be 100 percent funded by the governor,” said incumbent state Rep. Brandon Phelps, D-Harrisburg. He is running against challenger Jason Kasiar, a Republican businessman from Eldorado, in the Nov. 8 General Election.
“Look where it is coming from,” Kasiar said of campaign contributions to Phelps. “It’s coming from Washington, D.C., it’s coming from Chicago, it’s coming from the Mike Madigan fingers that are out there.”
* Related…
* Rauner-Madigan rivalry hamstrings Illinois budget talks
- Just Me - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 11:59 am:
Rauner’s poll numbers may be worse than Madigan’s, but Rauner’s name ID is far higher than Madigan’s.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:11 pm:
The Munger-Mendoza race is the #1 race.
It’s not even remotely close. There’s not one race in Illinois that, in my opinion, that is as critical or as important to both sides.
Labor, including trades, here’s your “vote accordingly”. Labor went 2 in 5 for Rauner, will Labor go 2 in 5 for Munger?
That’s the ball game.
State workers, Rauner got you down? “Vote Accordingly”. If Democrats and Labor solidly unite and make this the “Rauner Referendum” it could be the most impactful message both could make to Rauner
Me? I think Munger wins, and she wins fairly easily, about where Comptroller came in agaist Simon, and better than Frerichs came in against Cross.
“Why?”
Munger will have the cash to really take it to Mendoza, and I mean take it to her, define her, chip and whittle her down, and in the end Munger, if, and it’s a strong IF, if Munger just runs as the Comptroller.
Munger, yesterday, needs to get Lincolnshire of this RTW, Munger needs to frame her work-product as Conptroller-Centric, and for the love of Pete, run as an incumbent that is doing the people’s business.
Munger can do all that, with the JBT skeletal Crew still running the store, and having the cash on hand to build.
Mendoza proves yesterday that her Crew is grossly overmatched, right now. Embarrasingly so. If yesterday is any indication, if I were in Munger’s Crew I wouldn’t worry about Mendoza’s Crew.
However, “the Wingman” - Labor prong for Munger, yikes. That needs to be fixed or thwarted in this presidential turnout.
But…
For me… it’s THIS race. This one. No other. This is the race to watch. Not Kirk-Duckworth, not POTUS, not the legislative chambers as a whole. This. Right here. Ball game.
Yesterday showed Mendoza ain’t up to the challenge, and if Mendoza gets out-worked, out-messaged, and out-maneuvered, Munger could redefine Rauner’s own standing, when the referendum against Rauner loses to just a better campaign.
Can’t wait for this race.
- here we go - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:11 pm:
While almost everyone dislikes Madigan, I don’t think that means that Democrat voters will NOT vote for Mendoza (double negative, I know).
I think most democratic voters are “fired up” to vote against Rauner as much as they can. I’m not sure about how energized Republican voters are about voting against Madigan.
- NorsemanR - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:13 pm:
Fire Madigan has been a failed GOP strategy for years. I don’t see it suddenly succeeding in a presidential election year where the Gov will take the most heat for the State’s meltdown.
Munger ads will be tying Mendoza to “Chicago” throughout the campaign to take advantage of the regional hatred that exists in this state.
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:24 pm:
Maybe I’m wrong but I think the result of the primaries show that money isn’t everything. I think the defeat of Dunkin and the defense of McCann point to the efficacy of the ground game. Munger can easily be tied to Rauner. What municipality followed through with the local RTW? Exactly Lincolnshire. You’ve got very very jacked up ralled up union folks who smell blood in the water. That’s where it’s at. You’ve got the university folks and the private social service people too. You just don’t have the energy on the other side. Add that to a crappy top of the ticket no matter what for Republicans and I think we are going to see a tremendous Raunerite defeat.
- A Jack - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:25 pm:
Madigan’s numbers may not be good. But Democrats overall do better in Illinois than Republicans.
So I would agree that Munger has more to overcome with her Rauner ties than Mendoza. And I think this pay delay only reinforces those ties.
- Visitor - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:25 pm:
Leslie Munger has nowhere near the negatives that Ken Dunkin had. I’ve yet to see any behavior from her that would rub the wrong way with people, except trying to keep Illinois afloat as much as possible. So tying her to Rauner will only work a little bit, and not enough needed to prevent her from winning her own term.
- Chucktownian - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:29 pm:
Munger loses big, as does the GOP in November. If we have no budget by then, it will be one of the largest landslides we’ve ever seen. Illinois needs to get the governor’s election back on the presidential cycle. That way there will be no more Rauners.
- Qui Tam - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:32 pm:
=The Munger-Mendoza race is the #1 race.=
OW -see my post from J. White comment.
Mendoza can use Schock as proof that she’s capable of siding with republicans. .5/s
Rich. Is proportional or fractional snark permitted?
- Huh? - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:33 pm:
“… Rauner’s poll numbers are lousy, but nothing like Madigan’s …”
The difference is that Madigan runs in his District while 1.4% must run statewide. Madigan just has to keep his voters happy. 1.4% has managed to make everyone upset.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:33 pm:
===Leslie Munger has nowhere near the negatives that Ken Dunkin had.==•
Or McCann’s? McCann won. “Why?”
===I’ve yet to see any behavior from her that would rub the wrong way with people, except trying to keep Illinois afloat as much as possible.===
While arguably true, on separate occasions Munger has used the words “supporting Rauner’s structural reform” and calling herself a “wingman” to Rauner.
It’s the Labor and anti-Rauner grouos targeting Munger at a higher clip than Rauner got support from Labor or anti-Quinn voters.
Will Munger get 2 of 5 in Labor Households? Will those still “upset” about Quinn still vote for Munger as they did for Rauner?
===So tying her to Rauner will only work a little bit, and not enough needed to prevent her from winning her own term.===
Keep whistling passed the graveyard…
- Honeybear - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 12:40 pm:
Visitor, good points but as a State worker ( I don’t know if you are or about your office) the visceral hatred of anything even 5 miles off of Rauner is astonishing. The “R” brand is so tarnished from a state workforce perspective and don’t see that getting better. One thing I’ve learned in the past year and a half is that you’ve got to have people who DO things, not just think, see, or say things. You have to find, foster, motivate and get people to, go door to door, talk to others to convince, show up to rally’s, phone bank, ACTUALLY EXERCISE POWER. There are just A LOT of people on one side right now. McCann was a nightmare of a candidate. What happened? I’ll tell you we had a dozen AFSCME’s from my local marching North for 5 weeks every Saturday. And this was just from my local with not that many people actually living in McCanns district. You add that to the forces that the Local actually in McCanns district fielded, plus the trades folk and right there you have what I feel changed the race and neutralized the money. I argue that the ground game trumps the money.
- The Old Professor - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 1:06 pm:
I am a progressive downstate Democrat who came from California to UIUC in the late 70s. I have despised Michael Madigan for many years, and he is the reason that, while I donate to local, state and national D candidates, I have not given directly to the Illinois State Democratic party for many years.
Having said that, I realize that progressives must rely on Madigan to fight Gov. Sauron, much as we relied on S—-n to fight H—-r in World War II. (I hope I don’t get banned for this!)
The ideal solution in my mind would have the viciously anti-labor part of the Governor’s plan permanently withdrawn, in return for which the Speaker would retire from his position. A budget, a reasonable graduated income tax would follow. I don’t like term limits, but I’d take them, along with reasonable changes in other things.
Yeah, I know that’s going to happen just because I said so.
- SweetLou86 - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 1:21 pm:
Rich, you’re absolutely right that Madigan’s negatives are extremely high, but that’s been the case for at least a decade and his detractors have never succeeded in turning him into an issue for democrats running across the state. “Dump Madigan” was the same cycle he got the super-majority.
It’s the same mindset of “Hate Congress, love my congressman”
- downstate commissioner - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 1:40 pm:
This may be a big race, but Munger has separated herself from Rauner in several instances, and seems to be a “comptroller” person rather than a “Rauner” person.
And, I don’t know about upstate, but the downstate name recognition would be “Mendoza who?” (And I had to scroll up to check the spelling of her name).
At this point, I would probably vote for Munger, but I would never vote for Rauner….
- Aldyth - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 1:56 pm:
Does Joe Average voter even understand what the Comptroller does? An awful lot have no idea, beyond maybe it sounds like an accounting office kind of a job.
The issues with the national Republican Party are likely to have down ticket effects. If the Republican Party is in the middle of a train wreck in November, a lot of the things that we normally think would be happening with voters may turn out completely different. The possibilities make me dizzy.
- Liberty - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 2:00 pm:
Then the swing voters go to the polls, will they blame Madigan or Rauner? It will be Rauner. Everyone will say he had the right idea but went to far.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 2:29 pm:
===This may be a big race, but Munger has separated herself from Rauner in several instances…===
We’ll see how the “Wingman” and structural reforms quotes play out…
It’s yet to be determined how seperated they may be to voters…
Jus sayin’…
- Otis - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 2:39 pm:
Back to ole Col. Sanders. Labor- would you like to be fried extra Krispy, cut up into little strips, or just dipped into some sizzling hot bbq sauce? Vote accordingly!
- VanillaMan - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 2:58 pm:
Madigan isn’t liked, but he has a long history meaning that voters have lived with him around for a long time. He is a known quantity. Unliked, but known.
Rauner doesn’t have that going for him. Mr. Shake-em-up ironically is only known to voters as someone inflicting instability into our state. He has zero accomplishments to offset his tumultuous image.
Madigan is in a better position as a consequence. Rauner failed to make friends during his honeymoon and he needed to have shown voters another side to his chaotic side to survive. Anti-Madigan isn’t effective as a result, compared to anti-Rauner.
Munger needs stability to win and Rauner isn’t giving it. The Democrats won’t help her either.
I see a very real possibility that she will lose.
- Mama - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 3:50 pm:
When Munger made the announcement, “she is delaying the legislators pay”, her campaign message started off on a positive note. The voters loved it. I think she can win.
- Anonymouth - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 4:35 pm:
This is a Presidential year. Republicans simply do not win statewide in Illinois in Presidential years. Democrats will be coming out in droves to vote for President. Many people that have never voted or recently voted for the first time may also be coming out to vote against Trump. I think the Presidential race will have significant coattails here. Mendoza wins 55-45.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 5:43 pm:
The last Republican to win statewide in Illinois in a Presidential election year was?
Reagan?
This race hasn’t even started yet, and Munger is already a long shot.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 6:33 pm:
I don’t think Rauner’s staff will just throw in the towel on Kirk, and I don’t think the RNC shares Rauner’s priorities.
I also think Mendoza’s youth gives her a huge advantage.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 6:38 pm:
Mendoza’s Crew’s embarrassing sad response to the Sunday presser isn’t going to worry anyone they face.
The Mendoza Crew would’ve been better off not saying anything that the ridiculously pathetic and weak attempt at pretending they’re relevant.
I came up with 3 pivots on my own better than the ridiculous response they trotted out and I wasn’t even trying.
The work product they rolled out. Ugh.
Right now the Mendoza Crew is outclassed. By miles.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 7:52 pm:
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 5:43 pm:
George HW Bush in 1988
- Anonymous - Monday, Apr 18, 16 @ 11:19 pm:
“Look where it is coming from,” Kasiar said of campaign contributions to Phelps. “It’s coming from Washington, D.C., it’s coming from Chicago…” I have to agree with Brandon Phelps’ opponent. Just saw a link on this site showing a contribution of $25,000 to Phelps from the Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters PAC. What do they have to do with Phelps in Harrisburg, which is 350 miles from Chicago?
Illinois Sunshine shows a $43,900 contribution to Phelps from the Intl. Union of Operating Engineers local 150. Aren’t they headquartered in Countryside, not southern Illinois?
- Harlon Katz - Wednesday, Apr 20, 16 @ 12:06 am:
Democratic voters are willing to drive this state to insolvency with their unending support of the public sector unions and their golden pensions. Madigan is already moving to push Chicago CTU issue on the rest of the state - the rest of the schools in the state will suffer so that the Democrats can pay back their public sector union cronies.