* Greg Hinz…
A few folks could change their minds at the last minute. But, at the moment, not one member of Illinois’ congressional delegation has said they’ll be in Cleveland [except for Congressman Peter Roskam], according to both official and inside sources. Nor is Gov. Bruce Rauner, comptroller Leslie Munger or any statewide GOP official. […]
Also on the no-show list, sources say, are such high-profile, heavily involved Republicans as DuPage County Board President Dan Cronin, Illinois Toll Highway Authority Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, Illinois Manufacturers Association President Greg Baise, top fundraiser Ron Gidwitz and Regional Transportation Authority Chairman Kirk Dillard, though the latter said he may drive in one day for a public transit event. […]
So, who will be there?
Cook County Commissioner Tim Schneider, for one—he’s the current state GOP chair. Joining him will be two other former chairs: Jack Dorgan, a lobbyist named to an at-large slot, and fellow lobbyist/consultant Pat Brady, who was elected a Kasich delegate.
Also at the top of the list are Bolingbrook Mayor Roger Claar, fundraiser and Cubs part-owner Todd Ricketts and lobbyist/consultant Nancy Kimme.
But beyond that, the list gets pretty thin, including just a few legislators and some county and municipal officials, but not Illinois Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno, though her House counterpart, Jim Durkin, is planning to attend.
Like Brady, Kimme is an elected Kasich delegate.
And even some of those folks aren’t planning to stick around for the full four days.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I have some errands to run that I couldn’t finish yesterday (stuff like windshield and tire repair on my truck), so blogging’s gonna be light for a couple of hours.
* The Question: Did you do anything politically oriented during the long Independence Day weekend? And please try to avoid arguing about national politics. There are plenty of other places to do that. Thanks!
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What I did during break
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Just FYI, the governor’s security detail was almost invisible…
All-Star Presence at Gov. Rauner’s Jewish Chief of Staff’s Wedding: Gov. Bruce Rauner’s new chief of staff Rich Goldberg and the rest of the Rauner crew may have had an extra incentive to get a budget deal through on Thursday. Goldberg was married over the weekend. One guest reports to Illinois Playbook: “Bruce and Diana on the dance floor nonstop,” and “(U.S. Sen.) Kirk said it was the first time he danced since the stroke — lots of friends in from around the country … It was quite the wedding.”
From Goldberg’s best man, Aaron Kevak: “Sen. Kirk and Gov. Rauner joined Rich Goldberg, the new groom, as he married Roxie Zeller at the swank Hilton Orrington/Evanston with more than 200 guests.
Protected by state police they, and the governor, celebrated the betrothal at a Jewish Orthodox ceremony officiated by the local rabbi in the community (where they met at an unexpected Shabat meal). Entertained by a 9 piece band, Rich and Roxie were joined by their family and friends, coming from Skokie, DC, and Scotland.”
A full Springfield cast of characters attended the chief of staff’s nuptials: That included, according to Kevak, the governor and Illinois first lady Diana Rauner, U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (for whom Goldberg worked before Rauner), Capitol Fax’s Rich Miller and former Chief of Staff Mike Zolnierowicz, who was among the groomsmen.
I certainly wasn’t expecting that.
Anyway, we all laughed all night. I had too much fun and met some interesting folks, including a pair of sweet elderly male twins, one who collects currency and another who collects rare coins. I’ve known Richard since the campaign and was glad to be there for him. Roxie is a heckuva woman.
* Two group selfies were posted on social media from that wedding, one with the governor and one without. I was only in the latter pic…
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Stopgap means WIU can avoid technical default
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* But only if the money arrives in time….
The stopgap budget will prevent Western from having to dip into restricted Auxiliary Facilities Systems funds to meet operational expenses — if the state comptroller sends payments out in the next 20 days, Bierman noted.
The university was scheduled to begin using restricted AFS funds, which are collected through residence hall revenue and student fees to support campus facilities built with and maintained by funds from the selling of tax-exempt bonds. Using AFS funds would have been a technical default on the university’s bond payments, and dipping into the AFS pot requires the university to notify bond holders within 10 days.
The decisions Western has made during the state’s fiscal crisis will not change, according to Bierman. Amid the crisis, the university has initiated layoffs and mandatory furloughs for non-negotiated employees. The university has given 105 layoff notices to non-faculty employees and about 45 notices to faculty.
A few non-faculty employees have been brought back due to retirements, Bierman said.
* WIU isn’t the only entity hoping for a quick payment schedule, but folks shouldn’t get their hopes up. There’s still not nearly enough revenue to go around…
As the ink dries on Illinois’ stopgap budget deal, City Water, Light and Power will be among those in line to get paid by the state. The city is asking Illinois for the $16.2 million it owes to the city-owned utility for keeping the lights and water on in its offices across the city, Mayor Jim Langfelder said on Tuesday.
But it’s still unclear how much and when the state would make payments.
“Comptroller (Leslie) Munger knows the utility companies have been waiting a long time for their payments and she has directed her staff to pay these bills immediately upon receiving the vouchers,” said Rich Carter, spokesman for Munger, in an email.
* And…
Vendors owned money from the 2015 Illinois State Fair should finally get paid as a result of a short-term budget approved by state lawmakers, though just how soon the money will arrive remains uncertain.
A six-month spending plan approved on Thursday, the final day of the state fiscal year, authorizes nearly $1.6 million for overdue vendor payments, as well as $6.4 million for operating the 2016 fair, Illinois Department of Agriculture spokeswoman Rebecca Clark said Tuesday. […]
Spokesman Rich Carter with the Illinois Comptroller’s Office said agency staff are working as quickly as possible to process an estimated 1,000 pages of bills owed various state vendors and contractors.
Carter said state agencies must submit vouchers before the office can begin paying the bills. “It’s a very complicated process,” said Carter. “We worked all weekend in order to get them ready.”.
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Rauner’s negative reviews
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Geiger and Garcia…
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner staked his first term on a three-prong strategy to improve Illinois’ economy: loosen the grip held by entrenched politicians, weaken the influence of organized labor and ease regulations on his allies in the business world.
But when push came to shove at the Capitol last week, it was the governor’s “turnaround agenda” that once again landed off to the side, with the needs of Chicago taking center stage and the state’s own financial challenges put off for another day.
The scene that unfolded over three days at the statehouse was a dramatic repeat of a pattern that has emerged the last 18 months as Rauner, a high-powered businessman turned political newcomer, has gone head-to-head with the state’s most seasoned political creature, Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan.
Time after time, Rauner has held firm on his legislative demands, hoping that mounting pressure will send Democrats to the negotiating table. And time after time, Democrats have waited him out until the demands of governing outweigh Rauner’s wish list and he has to strike a short-team deal in the hopes of staying alive politically to fight another day. […]
But it was Rauner who ended up bending the most, as the pressures of having to govern proved stronger than the governor’s willingness to, as he’s put it, “leverage” a crisis in state government to force action on his agenda. The governor railed for months against a CPS “bailout.” But what emerged was a promise of hundreds of millions of dollars in help for the district, and no way for the state to pay for its portion, though Chicago taxpayers will be on the hook for higher property taxes to cover some of the financial fix.
* Tom Kacich was particularly harsh…
There was a lot of talk in Springfield about compromise in the aftermath of last week’s budget deal. That apparently included Gov. Rauner compromising with himself.
In remarks after the six-month budget deal passed the Legislature, the governor at one point said of the spending plan: “This is not a budget. This is not a balanced budget. This is not a solution to our long-term challenges. This is a bridge to reform.”
Not 10 minutes later the governor reiterated his long-held budget and government reform demands: “I’ve been very clear on two things from day one, and those two things aren’t changing … and they will not change. I will not sign off on an unbalanced budget. I’m not going to. And number two, I will not sign off on any new taxes without meaningful structural reform. I’ve been clear on that for the last year and a half and that’s not going to change.” […]
But numerous legislators asserted Thursday that there was more spending than revenue, so we’ll go with that, and point out that as the governor also said, it is an unbalanced budget. Even though he also said he would not sign off on an unbalanced budget.
* Quad City Times…
It’s time for a reset, Gov. Rauner.
Bruce Rauner will have to think fast. Illinois’s stopgap budget, approved Thursday by the General Assembly, covers most state costs only through December. The reprieve is welcome for the hundreds of social service agencies that slashed services over the past year of utter dysfunction. It’s a breather for the rape victims who went without counseling and the college students whose promised state aid served as a regular political football.
But, hopefully, Rauner uses the short respite to rethink his political approach. Campaign promises are easy. Governance amid opposition requires a finesse Rauner has yet to display.
* Tribune editorial…
The job wasn’t well done. It isn’t even done.
Sure, the last-minute stopgap budget deal between House Speaker Michael Madigan, Senate President John Cullerton and Gov. Bruce Rauner helps the state avoid an even bigger and more humiliating emergency — starting a second year of budget stalemate and waiting for schools not to open.
But this six-month deal does precious little to bring Illinois back from the fiscal Walking Dead.
It doesn’t curb chronic overspending.
Doesn’t reform pensions or workers’ comp.
Doesn’t fix a broken educational spending formula.
Instead, it’s a triumph of rock-bottom expectations. For lack of real fixes, some crises — such as the ruinous growth of Illinois’ unfunded pension liabilities — will continue to worsen.
* Related…
* Opponents of State Stopgap Budget Explain Their Votes: For Ives, a no vote was more than a statement vote. “It was the responsible vote,” she said. “If you voted for that budget, get ready, because come January, maybe the end of December, you’re going to also have to feel obligated to vote for a $5 billion-plus tax increase. This budget wasn’t a budget. This budget was a spending plan that we can’t afford. Budgets set priorities and tell you what’s the most important thing you have to fund. All this vote did was set up a tax increase.”
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* This form is being circulated in AFSCME circles…
There are tons of rumors out there right now, and this form is spiking them up even further. Some folks are worried about retaliation from either side, for example.
* But Anders Lindall at AFSCME pointed me to his comments the other day about “strike assessment and informational meeting” notices that went up on union billboards in which he said in part…
But we know that as a candidate, Bruce Rauner vowed to force a strike and shut down state government. We know that last summer his administration was attempting to recruit strikebreakers, even reportedly discussing the mobilization of the National Guard. And we know that the administration still refuses to meet with our bargaining committee.
Governor Rauner’s threatening approach has created instability and uncertainty throughout state government. We have to be prepared for him to continue seeking confrontation and sowing chaos. That’s why AFSCME local unions throughout Illinois are meeting to share information and answer questions, and continuing to organize and build community support.
It could get truly crazy relatively soon. I’ll let you know more when I know more.
*** UPDATE *** From Jason Barclay, Gov. Rauner’s General Counsel…
Last week we learned that AFSCME is conducting strike assessments throughout the state. This document confirms that AFSCME is now asking individual members to commit to a strike. And we have also heard that they have already selected a strike date of September 1 – which, depending on the status of the Impasse Case at the Labor Board, could be a violation of the Tolling Agreement AFSCME signed with the State wherein it committed not to strike until the Labor Board determines if an impasse has been reached. An AFSCME strike could result in serious disruptions to its members lives – disruption to pension calculations because of a lengthy strike, loss of wages and health insurance during a lengthy strike, and the possibility of being replaced by replacement workers, potentially permanently. The Governor has laid out a much more reasonable path – no strikes or lock outs, respecting the outcome of the Labor Board process agreed to by AFSCME, and allowing AFSCME members to vote on the Governor’s proposals which are substantially similar to those that have been approved by 17 other bargaining units. AFSCME members should remember that the same executives calling for this strike will continue to be paid and will continue to receive their own health and pension benefits while marching members down this unknown and unprecedented path. As an administration, we will continue to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst to ensure that AFSCME’s actions do not shut down services so critical to our taxpayers.
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Edgar gets into the late payment game
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
At the same time he’s criticized Gov. Bruce Rauner for failing to pass a state budget, former Gov. Jim Edgar and his business partners are looking to profit from the state of Illinois’ financial crisis, records obtained by the Chicago Sun-Times show.
Edgar is chairman of the board of Illinois Financing Partners, which on Wednesday won the Rauner administration’s OK to advance money to vendors that have been forced to wait months to get paid by the state. The payoff for the Edgar company? It gets to keep the late-payment fees when the state finally pays up. […]
“If the state ever did get their act together, this entity would go out of business,” Edgar says of his company. “Unfortunately, we’re not there.”
Edgar says he got involved with Illinois Financing Partners through Bill Fleischli, who worked for the state Department of Transportation when he was governor and now is executive vice president of the Illinois Petroleum Marketers Association. The majority owner of Illinois Financing Partners — Lindsay Trittipoe of Richmond, Va. — has financed environmental cleanup around defunct underground petroleum storage tanks through another company he heads.
Illinois Financing Partners says it has a $500 million commitment from Bank of America to help purchase vendors’ bills, according to its application to the state Department of Central Management Services filed in April.
* The Illinois Policy Institute, which has long railed against Edgar, has react for its radio network listeners…
Edgar has been critical of Rauner’s efforts to include economic reforms in state budget negotiations. Longtime Edgar friend Jim Nowlan said Edgar’s criticism could have hindered Illinois Financial Partner’s profits.
“It would probably have hurt his own business if Rauner had responded to Edgar’s criticism because there wouldn’t be all this unpaid debt,” Nowlan said.
State Rep. Ron Sandack, R-Downers Grove, said if Edgar had gotten his way and Rauner had caved and agreed to additional taxes without economic reforms, Edgar’s group would have gotten paid more quickly.
“Which I get, and – again – that’s their prerogative but that certainly wasn’t disclosed by Gov. Edgar when he was hitting the media circuits,” Sandack said.“That went undisclosed while he was making his assertions and offering his criticisms of Governor Rauner. I think that’s just more of the same, unfortunate.”
Discuss.
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The 65 percent “solution”
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Housing Action Illinois…
What does the stopgap budget mean for efforts to protect and expand affordable housing and end homelessness?
The percentage of funding available in the stopgap budget for each state-funded program to create affordable housing and end homelessness compared to the last year for which there was an actual budget, FY 2015, varies based on the funding source and appropriation levels. See our breakdown of funding levels for programs to create affordable housing and end homelessness in the stopgap budget »
Dedicated funds for affordable housing (e.g., the Illinois Affordable Housing Trust Fund) were generally fully appropriated both for fiscal year 2016 and the fiscal year 2017. Programs that historically have been funded through General Revenue Funds only received partial appropriations for costs incurred during FY 2016 (ending June 30, 2016) and the first half of FY 2017 (ending on December 31, 2016) using funds from the Commitment to Human Services Fund (which is funded through income taxes).
In general, the stopgap budget means:
* Homeless shelters and transitional housing providers for families, single adults and unaccompanied youth will be able to get paid for at least a portion of the work they completed in FY2016 and that they will complete in FY2017.
* Small homelessness prevention grants for families and individuals experiencing a temporary crisis will once again be available.
* State-funded services, such as case management and counseling, in permanent supportive housing for people with mental health issues and/or who were formerly homeless, will start to receive funding again. For some of these programs, the funding will be significantly reduced compared to prior years.
* State-funded housing counseling for people working to avoid foreclosure or purchase a home will be available again.
* Developers of affordable rental units and single-family homes will have access to financing resources, such as the Illinois Affordable Housing Trust Fund, that have not been available for the past year.
State-funded service providers with contracts will need to get more information from state agencies, such as the Illinois Department of Human Services and the Illinois Housing Development Authority, to determine specific funding amounts for services already provided during FY 2016 and/or to be provided during FY 2017.
A report that we issued less than three months into the year-long state budget impasse demonstrated that people were becoming homeless due to the impasse as most every state-funded agency took one or more of the following actions—limiting intake of new clients; reducing or eliminating services for current clients; staff layoffs, implementing furlough days or reduced work hours for staff; eliminating programs; and/or closing sites.
A subsequent report showed that the funds were available to make these steps unnecessary, but our elected leaders could not come to an agreement to spend the money.
There is a pause in the impasse, but our work is far from over. Stay tuned for future updates and actions.
* I followed up by asking what the “portion” would be. The response…
Hi Rich,
This spreadsheet has a more specific breakdown of the funding for various programs and compares them to other years’ funding levels. It should give a better sense of percentages.
Also, our Policy Director Bob Palmer pointed out that the “65% funding of human services for 18 months” level that most people are using to describe how the stopgap budget funds programs is a simplification: “Especially considering that Governor Rauner’s proposed budget was used as the base level, some programs, like supportive housing services for people who were formerly homeless, are receiving far less than 65% of funding because Governor Rauner had proposed significant cuts to those programs compared to FY15. Some programs, like homeless shelters, whose line item is funded with money from the Illinois Affordable Housing Trust Fund, will receive more than 65% funding.”
Hope all of that makes sense. Happy to answer any other questions!
Thanks,
Kristin Ginger
Communications Manager | Housing Action Illinois
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64% of Illinois voters support independent redistricting
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Nearly 600,000 Illinoisans signed a petition to put redistricting reform on the 2016 ballot. The Independent Map Amendment will reform the rules and require a process of drawing maps that is transparent, impartial and fair. Illinois elections should reflect the will of the people, not the politicians.
The 2016 redistricting reform effort builds upon the previous attempts in 2010 and 2014. Our organization worked with reform groups, civic organizations, community leaders, and others to draft an amendment that adheres to the requirements of the Illinois Constitution while creating a new system for redistricting that is independent and protects the rights of minority communities.
That’s why the Independent Map Amendment is supported by a broad coalition that includes the Latino Policy Forum, Better Government Association, Common Cause Illinois, NAACP Chicago Southside Branch, Illinois Chamber of Commerce, League of Women Voters, Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, AARP Illinois, the Illinois Farm Bureau and many others.
Visit mapamendment.org to view a full list of supporters of redistricting reform and to read the latest news and editorials supporting this constitutional change.
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Rate the new Quinn video
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Take Charge Chicago website…
Pat Quinn observed the 240th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence by urging the people of Chicago to sign and circulate the Take Charge Chicago petition to term limit the mayor and establish an elected Consumer Advocate for Chicago’s beleaguered taxpayers and consumers.
In signing the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776, the Founding Fathers risked everything to establish democracy and throw out monarchy.
The Take Charge Chicago referendums are in keeping with the “Spirit of 1776” where Chicago voters by binding referendum will tell the Mayor what the rules are, not the other way around.
The Take Charge Chicago referendums would be the first binding referendums in memory once 100,000 signatures are collected.
Using an ironing board as a portable petition-signing station at the George Washington statue on the Chicago River, Quinn and Take Charge Chicago unveiled a new campaign video called “Revolution.”
The 60-second animated film features George Washington arguing for term limits as he crosses the Delaware and John Adams being perplexed that Chicago doesn’t have a mayoral term limit.
Produced by a Columbia College videographer, “Revolution” shows that Chicago is the only city among the nation’s ten largest without mayoral term limits and that 20 Illinois communities now have it for their chief executives. To watch the video, click here.
Most of our nation’s Founders were term limits advocates in the American drive to win independence from King George III who reigned on the English throne for 59 years.
* Rate it…
Hat tip: IR.
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Today’s number: 10 of 16
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Advocates and families dealing with autism say they are hopeful that $4.2 million earmarked for autism services in the state budget deal approved last week will restore programs and services shut down because of funding shortages during the impasse. But service providers say the year spent unfunded — which forced the closure of 10 of the 16 state-funded organizations catering to families with children on the autism spectrum — has been devastating and can’t be repaired quickly.
“To some degree, the damage has been done, and if we get money tomorrow, I can’t go back and replace the expertise that I’ve lost over the course of this year,” said Valerie Boyer, director of the Center for Autism Spectrum Disorders at Southern Illinois University. “It will take years for us to build up what we lost.”
For 12 years in a row, the Autism Program of Illinois operated under a state grant that provided $4.3 million for autism screenings, therapy, support groups, parent workshops and other resources. When the program failed to get funding beginning July 1, 2015, families with children with autism were forced to join long waiting lists in hopes of getting services from private providers. Many low-income families, who could not afford expensive testing and therapies not covered by Medicaid, stopped receiving services, said Clint Paul, president of the Hope Institute, the nonprofit organization responsible for doling out grants from the Autism Program of Illinois.
Advocates say it was a heartbreaking scenario as children were turned away despite well-documented research that proves early intervention and consistent therapy give children with autism the best chances for success in school and independence as adults.
Ugh.
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Finally, a little governance
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
“By nearly every measure, the state is worse off since Rauner took office,” this publication recently editorialized about the governor.
After initially snapping that Crain’s is “collectivist” in nature, Gov. Bruce Rauner did appear to switch gears after he was whacked.
And thank goodness for that.
Rauner told Crain’s editorial board that he opposed spending any more state money on Chicago Public Schools than he’d already offered—which was, in fact, no more money than the schools were already receiving. Giving more cash would only reward their mismanagement, he said.
But a few days later, the Republican governor reversed course and agreed to a deal that could potentially be worth about $400 million in additional state funding for CPS, including $74 million that would have been cut under the existing funding formula. The agreement also paves the way for a $250 million property tax hike, despite his opposition to raising those revenues.
From not one more thin dime to more than $650 million? What the heck happened there?
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
And, by the way, we had a disagreement over the math in that column. I was reluctant to use the governor’s originally introduced amount for CPS, preferring instead to use his revised amount, which was no more money than last fiscal year and better fit the timeline of his Crain’s appearance. I was outvoted. No biggie, but I just wanted to mention it here.
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Behind the stopgap deal
Wednesday, Jul 6, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan rose to give his customary year-end speech after the House had concluded its business last week, and pointed his finger right at Gov. Bruce Rauner.
For months, Madigan has noted that every time Rauner sets aside his “personal agenda,” the two men have been able to reach a compromise on a spending proposal. What Madigan refers to as a personal agenda is actually Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda, a package of mainly pro-business/anti-union measures that the Legislature’s Democratic majority has so far refused to approve. And Rauner won’t agree to a full budget deal until that happens, which is why Illinois went a year without a budget.
Madigan informed the chamber that the new, temporary stopgap budget deal and K-12 education spending plan passed last week represented the “seventh time” they have approved spending proposals independent of the governor’s agenda in the last 18 months.
But pension reform is very near the top of the governor’s “personal agenda.” And, last week, Madigan put votes on a bill which gives Chicago Public Schools $205 million for its pension system. And, per the agreement he made with Rauner, it will only be signed into law if the leaders can agree on a significant pension reform bill by January.
Madigan was reportedly reluctant to make that deal. He called it a “trap” during private negotiations with the governor. He could be right about this being a trap. Barring divine intervention, CPS will face yet another severe cash crunch next June as it struggles to make its huge annual pension payment. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will probably be desperate for a deal to get access to that state cash infusion. And the unions which support Madigan (meaning all of them) are not going to love having to wage yet another pension reform fight. Madigan will be “trapped” in the middle.
The speaker was reportedly convinced to accept the offer at the urging of Mayor Emanuel. And, even then, Madigan insisted on having a bipartisan roll call, with a strict minimum number of Republican votes — and he stuck to that demand even though the House Republicans were short a couple of members last week.
The point, though, is that the governor, after a year and a half of private cajoling and public bullying, finally succeeded at convincing Mayor Emanuel to put some pressure on Madigan to do a deal. And that pressure will only increase as the January passage deadline approaches for pension reform. Once that begins, it may be hard to contain, so members of Team Rauner are likely hoping they can use similar ideas to force Madigan to the table on other Turnaround Agenda items, like workers’ compensation cost cuts and reduced rights for unionized employees in local governments.
Madigan could, however, use all this to his own political advantage through the summer and fall.
Gov. Rauner said last week that helping the legislative Republicans pick up seats in November would be a top priority from here on out. He correctly noted that their super-minority status meant they had little influence at the Statehouse. He wants to give them a bigger voice. Rauner has said previously that if the Democrats pick up any seats this November it would be a “disaster” for taxpayers. And he has repeatedly said that the Democrats have made it clear it will be easier for them to do a “grand bargain” if they wait until after the election.
That all adds up to a huge incentive for unions to rally behind Madigan. If they work hard and help Madigan pick up some seats, perhaps they can stave off a “grand bargain.” But if they slack off even a little and Madigan suffers a loss, no matter how slight, well, the grand bargaining could commence in earnest.
If Madigan’s interest group allies truly go all out and they can build on the natural Democratic advantage of a presidential election year, and perhaps the added advantage of a pretty darned odd Republican nominee, Madigan could definitely pick up seats. The Democrats have polling which they say shows this could happen.
But the Republicans have polling which they claim shows they’re doing really well in numerous targeted legislative districts.
That’s one reason why the Republicans could justify last week’s stopgap budget bargain, even though it’s widely expected to take lots of heat off of incumbents (and there are a whole lot more Democratic incumbents than Republican incumbents). At least, that’s the hope. This has been, after all, a very bizarre year all over the place.
Discuss.
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